Slim Cognito wrote: ↑Mon May 17, 2021 11:22 am
I open this thread with the same sense of dread I feel when I open the Another Shooting thread.
John Roberts may end up being the dog that caught the car on this one. His whole deal has been wanting to have a conservative majority that could turn back the clock to the
Lochner era on corporate rights, essentially rolling back the New Deal in the process, while keeping political conservatives mollified by promising them that their wish list of bans on abortion and gay marriage were next on the agenda, once they can just get all this stuff out of the way to make sure the rich keep on getting richer. Of course, he really has no intention of wading into such controversial areas, because that's the surest way to create public outcry against the Court's legitimacy, the result of which could be expansion of the Court and the loss of his precious majority. The problem is that really depends on having a permanent majority of stalwart conservatives, yet not so many true believers that the court essentially runs away and starts doing what their activist constituencies actually want them to do.
Roberts is smart enough to know that a ruling upholding a 15-week ban (and essentially overruling
Roe and
Planned Parenthood v. Casey at a stroke) would be wildly unpopular with the public at large. But now he has Thomas, Alito, and Barrett who absolutely do not care about such calculations. The question is going to be whether he can persuade Gorsuch or Kavanaugh to toe his line in the interest of preserving the Court's legitimacy in the eyes of the public. The fact that this got four votes to grant
certiorari leads one to conclude that at least one of those two has joined with the radicals. If it's both, it could end up being one of those rulings that is disastrous for the rights of women now, and yet a boon for those (like myself) who have become convinced, however reluctantly, that recent political shenanigans surrounding the Court have made anything less than significant reform including, yes, expansion, tantamount to surrendering SCOTUS to an out-of-control right-wing majority for a generation and maybe more.
"There's no play here. There's no angle. There's no champagne room. I'm not a miracle worker, I'm a janitor. The math on this is simple. The smaller the mess, the easier it is for me to clean up." -Michael Clayton