France

[Suranis]

He's more likely to be shouting with Joy because his wife made a pass at that guy who is younger and sexier than him.

But unplugging from Turnipverse for a while (Ahh, that's better) Macron has never been terribly popular in France. If Le Pen wasn't there he would probably have lost the run off that put him in power in the first place. Calling a Snap election after he took a bit of a Beating in the European elections is likely to bite him in the ass.

Assuming that the Left and right don't start tearing themselves apart... which they probably will. It's France after all. You cant do anything without creating enemies and both sides tearing you down.

[raison de arizona]

Oh no.

Political earthquake in France. Le Pen’s hard-right party and allies have won a massive lead in first-round parliamentary voting. Early results from @IpsosFrance give the RN 34%. This means it could, possibly, win a majority in the 577-seat National Assembly on July 7th 1/

[raison de arizona]

It is midnight and several thousand demonstrators are still gathered in Paris.

#ElectionsLegislatives2024 #legislatives2024

[RTH10260]

French elections: far right on course for first round victory. What happens now?
Macron’s grouping and the left-green alliance will have to cooperate to keep the Front National out of power, but that won’t be easy

Jon Henley
Sun 30 Jun 2024 21.09 CEST

The National Rally (RN) has won 34% of the popular vote in the first round of France’s snap two-round general election, according to early estimates, with the leftwing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance on 28%-29% and President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist Together bloc on 20%-22%.

A national vote share, however, is extremely difficult to translate into a projected number of seats in the assemblée nationale. That’s because the final outcome will depend on the results in the constituencies. While pollsters issue seat estimates, France’s polling watchdog does not endorse them.

Here’s a guide to what comes next as voters gear up for the decisive second round of voting on 7 July, when France could decide to give control of its government to the far-right, anti-immigrant party for the first time in its history.



https://www.theguardian.com/global/arti ... ppens-next

[raison de arizona]

If you're trying to figure out where not to vacation in France, the dark brown regions voted for Nazis

[raison de arizona]

[SuzieC]

According to CNN: "French left-wing coalition projected to beat the far-right in surprise second round voting." My comment to my cats: It was a surprise only to CNN.

[RTH10260]

2024 French elections: Map and chart of second-round results

By Raphaëlle Aubert, Pierre Breteau, Maxime Ferrer and Manon Romain
Published today at 7:57 pm (Paris), updated at 9:15 pm

French voters returned to the polls on Sunday, July 7, to elect the remaining members of the Assemblée Nationale. With 76 elected in the first round, on June 30, 501 seats were still to be filled in the second round. While candidates needed to obtain a score above 50% to be elected in the first round, in the run-off votes the candidate with the highest number of votes is elected, even if their score is below 50%.

Results will start to be published at 8 pm (Paris time) and trickle in throughout the evening. The last polling stations close at 8 pm in Paris and other big cities, meaning their results will arrive later in the evening. Our chart and map will automatically update throughout the night as results are made available by the Interior Ministry.



https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs ... 976_8.html

Note: Polling closed 2 hours ago from this posting

eg.
Results available for 426 districts out of 577.
Updated at 10:00 pm.

[RTH10260]

French left set to beat Le Pen’s far right in election shock
France on course for a hung parliament with the left holding the most MPs, in a defeat for the National Rally.

July 7, 2024 8:04 pm CET
By Clea Caulcutt

PARIS — The left-wing alliance in France is on course to win the most seats in parliament in a dramatic election upset, dealing a surprise blow to the far-right party of Marine Le Pen, according to early estimates.

Le Pen’s National Rally came top in the first round of voting a week ago and was aiming to secure the most seats in France’s legislature for the first time in the party’s history. But tactical voting and collaboration between Le Pen’s opponents in an effort to keep her party out of power appeared to have paid off, initial forecasts from pollsters suggested.

President Emmanuel Macron called a snap vote after a stunning defeat in last month’s European Parliament election, promising “a clarification” of the French political landscape. Instead, the country appeared on track towards greater uncertainty, with no single party holding a majority.

Macron’s own position as president was not at stake in the election: He is due to remain in office until 2027.

According to early estimates by polling institute IFOP — replicated by other pollsters — the left-wing alliance is on course to have between 180 and 215 MPs in France’s 577-seat National Assembly. That puts it ahead of Macron’s liberals on 150-180 seats, with the far-right National Rally and its allies forecast to have 120-150 MPs in the new legislature.

In the minutes after the first seat projections were announced, the far-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon took to the stage in front of his jubilant supporters. “[We] wrested a result that everyone said was impossible in a wonderful leap of civic spirit … The people have avoided the worst,” he said.

The seat projections for the final, second round of the election are based on early estimates and a lot could could change as official results are announced from the vote-counting in the hours ahead.

After the first round of voting on June 30, Le Pen’s party was on course for its best ever election result.



https://www.politico.eu/article/france- ... k-victory/

[Suranis]

Politics in France has been largely the same since the Third Republic. Rabis Left and Right fanatics attacking anyone who attempts to do literally anything, and the "Centrists" who try and avoid making any decision or taking any action at all.

So, I guess we will find out how bad the Left wing fanatics are.

[RTH10260]

Results available for 566 districts out of 577.
Updated at 12:27 am.

Seats by political bloc
NFP left-wing coalition (177)
Macron's coalition Ensemble (165)
RN (incl. LR-RN) (141)
LR (right) (45)
Ind. right (15)
Ind. left (12)
Ind. center (6)
Regionalists (4)
Misc. (1)
Not available (11)

[RTH10260]

nearly done

Results available for 574 districts out of 577.
Updated at 12:48 am.

Seats by political bloc

NFP left-wing coalition (181)
Macron's coalition Ensemble (166)
RN (incl. LR-RN) (143)
LR (right) (45)
Ind. right (15)
Ind. left (13)
Ind. center (6)
Regionalists (4)
Misc. (1)
Not available (3)

Looks to me as if the missing three districts are overseas departments.

[SuzieC]

So the RW coalition got killed, correct?

[Suranis]

Yes, as far as I can tell.

[RTH10260]

how come that the French manage to get their election counting done in five hourse as compared to the US (more like five weeks)

[Lansdowne]

The same as here in Britain - and most countries I would guess.

You are only voting for one position to be filled (or possibly two or three but then each race is on a separate ballot paper).

[Suranis]

Also they have one type of Ballot over the entire country, whereas the US has eleventy billion types of Ballots based on county and state traditions.

But, honestly I really don't know. We have proportional representation here in Ireland, requiring the ballots get counted a number of times, and we get our election counts done in a couple of days.

[SuzieC]

how come that the French manage to get their election counting done in five hourse as compared to the US (more like five weeks)

We have 330 million people and 50 states with 50 different election voting systems.

And in addition to the Presidential election, we have gubernatorial, senatorial, and many other elections down to city council and school board.

In another thread I asked whether Trump and the 2025 coalition would try to cancel all elections, or just Presidential? I really want to know what you all think.

[p0rtia]

Fuckhead will either run unopposed or get the mama court to appoint him dictator for life. Other electiona to proceed as needed.

[Suranis]

If Turnip got in he would certainly try to avoid losing another election. The snag is that he had already fired those project 2025 people when they were in his cabinet before. If they started doing stuff he would see it as them trying to take control and saying he is incompetent. So Ya he would try to avoid having another election and getting his ass in for life, but he is such a pathological Narcissist he would fuck it up, kick out all the people trying to make it happen, and try to do it HIS way, which would fall apart.

The thing people forget with the enevitable comparisons to the Nazis is that when Hitler took power the Nazi central group had been working and fighting together for about 10 years, and while they were all sychophants they were still a team, so they squabbled with one another for Hitlers approval none of them could be fired as such. With Turnip there is no single group he has been working with but several groups that have been trying to get his attention for years, and he has no real loyalty to any of them, with the possible exception of his family. So there is no single group that will be able to exert massive influence as such.

In short ya he will want to destroy democracy, but I think he cant keep a loyal group around him long enough to do it. I think He will start kicking out the groups trying to make it happen as they fail loyalty tests.

[Foggy]

That makes sense, and it is marginally comforting. If'n he had the brains and the work ethic to do it, he would have stayed in the White House in 2021, but he was too dumb and lazy to pull off an actual coup.

I still want Pennsylvania.

[northland10]

how come that the French manage to get their election counting done in five hourse as compared to the US (more like five weeks)

Also they have one type of Ballot over the entire country, whereas the US has eleventy billion types of Ballots based on county and state traditions.

But, honestly I really don't know. We have proportional representation here in Ireland, requiring the ballots get counted a number of times, and we get our election counts done in a couple of days.

We have 330 million people and 50 states with 50 different election voting systems.

And in addition to the Presidential election, we have gubernatorial, senatorial, and many other elections down to city council and school board.

Yeah, I have mentioned the issue of a large amount of races as well but apparently, my mic has not been on.

In addition, the races that have recently taken longer to count are the exception, not the norm. Apparently we forgot that in most cases, most elections are determined by morning at the latest. In the past, it has only been in some very close races that it took longer (and 2000 was a one-state exception in a close race). Also, when the constitution requires determining votes by state, not just a full popular vote, one state out of 50 (plus DC) can slow everything down, especially if it is a large enough state to swing the balance.

Too, also, COVID changed everything. Prior to 2020, most states had primarily in-person voting with some absentee ballots. In 2020, it all changed. While some states had systems for mail voting in place, most others had to create new systems for large increase of mailed-in ballots. Some jurisdictions also required the mail ballots to not be tabulated until after polls close. That meant various steps that would have been taken during the in-person voting could not start until after polls closed.

1. Voter name and address verification is on the envelope and the mailed-in verification form, and the ballot is checked to ensure it has a matching code (at the polls, this is the first step after waiting in line).

2. In some places, running the ballot in the correct machine for the correct precinct.

3. Tabulating the ballot with some 30-50 races and resolutions on it (In my current local, this is initially done when you put the ballot in the reader and prior to that, the counts were added to the machine count after pulled the big lever that recorded the votes, opened the curtain, and rang a bell).

Real close races can trigger an automatic recount which will also create delays, and we have had more than our fair share lately.

We are treating the post-COVID changes like the delay was always days and days or weeks and weeks. It wasn't.