What Would a Second US Civil War Really Look Like?

[John Thomas8]

[Dave from down under]

Damn it is looking more likely

[John Thomas8]

Damn it is looking more likely

Things are getting dumber by the day.

Reporting is fueling the fires with mis-reporting, the Dems seem completely incapable of countering the lies and Project 2025 is effectively driving the narrative. Throw in a completely corrupt christofascist majoring majority on SCROTUS and all of the checks and balances are effectively negated.

[noblepa]

I suspect that a second civil war will not be states seceding and forming armies of their own, although it may come to that.

I think it will be more along the lines of state governments openly defying the federal government on a variety of issues, such as education, abortion, voting rights and many other contentious points.

One would think that the Federal government could retaliate by withholding funds, but, if the states do not secede they will still have representation in Congress, and, depending on their numbers, could prevent that. Also, an ultra-conservative, right-wing SCOTUS could block the federal government from doing that, citing equal protection guarantees.

I am not a historian, but it is my understanding that, in 1861, a contributing factor was that many, particularly in the south, considered themselves to be Virginians, Georgians, etc. rather than Americans. While this is still probably the case for many individuals, the easy access to travel and relocation has resulted in, I believe, a more heterogeneous population. If a state legislature attempted to secede, there might be a mini-civil war within the state, between those who wish to secede and those who do not.

I also can't decide where the lines would be drawn. I doubt that it would really be a block of states against another block of states. I think if will be more of an intensification of the factional strife that we are already seeing. There will be violence, surely, but I think it will be more along the lines of small, armed militia groups, like the Proud Boys, than enormous armies.

In short, it won't be a sundering of the nation into two seperate countries, as the Confederacy attempted in 1861. It will be a universal crumbling of all the states. If or how the pieces might coalesce into a new status quo, I have no idea.

How would large corporations, with nationwide or worldwide presence react to such a situation? If General Motors, or Ford can't depend on laws being fairly uniform among the states, or if one state tries to embargo goods from another state, that would be an economic disaster.

I think that any such scenario would trigger huge economic problems for the entire world. It would also be seen as a green light for every two-bit wannabe dictator or large disruptive nations, such as China or Iran, to step up their global ambitions.

In short, worldwide chaos.

[Sam the Centipede]

the easy access to travel and relocation has resulted in, I believe, a more heterogeneous population.

It's not that obvious. I recall reading a few years ago that relocation has led to the opposite effect in parts of the USA.

Rather than mixing together different peoples, relocation allows people to search out communities that best represent their ideals, be that race, religion, politics, whatever. So communities become more polarized.

I have no data on this, but there is probably something on t'web somewhere.

I also can't decide where the lines would be drawn. I doubt that it would really be a block of states against another block of states. I think if will be more of an intensification of the factional strife that we are already seeing. There will be violence, surely, but I think it will be more along the lines of small, armed militia groups, like the Proud Boys, than enormous armies.

Or something more like the break-up of the Soviet Union? Obviously the USA is unlike the USSR, but perhaps some see it as the same sort of centralized, bullying, freedom-restricting authoritarianism?

I'm NOT saying it is, just wondering how those who might promote secession see it.

[pipistrelle]

Part of it has started-the e-war spread of disinformation, promotion of conspiracy, and polarization.

[bob]

Too also: The present division is more along rural/urban lines.

So one can't say, for example, Georgia is a red state. Georgia has several blue cities surrounded by many red counties, and their populations are somewhat comparable in size.

(Whereas in California, for example, the coast is blue while inland is red, but most of the people (and the wealth) are closer to the coast.)

So I don't expect states to neatly line up into sides, like with the (first) Civil War.

[Ben-Prime]

Sounds like what we'd be looking at is actually multiple civil wars on a state-by-state or region-by-region basis, perhaps on a level of interpersonal violence (organized or not), then writ large in the lawfare form by the legislative/judicial warfare noted above between states and the Federal government.

Either way, not the kind of life I want as I reach my late middle years.

[Dave from down under]

Rwanda mixed with Somali armed by the NRA

[Foggy]

As noted above, we won't have one group of states against another group, like we had in the Civil War. I think it might be something like rural vs. urban, but even that is going to have severe issues, because people are going to have to abandon their homes and jobs, and they won't. They talk about the 3%. I doubt they would have that many.

And even if some area is able to raise a small army, unless they go neighborhood by neighborhood using voter rolls, targeting all the Democrats in an area is going to be difficult. How do you find all the Democrats in the supermarket?

But my main fear is, it's going to descend into a race war more than likely. You can't tell who's a Democrat by looking at them, but you can see color. That makes the targeting a lot easier. I think it's going to be more like roving bands of so-called militia, with minimal training and no consistent performance or guardrails, and they're gonna terrorize the countryside because they'll be totally outnumbered by cops if they try to get into any major city. They may have support from the billionaires. There are a lot of potential variables.

In other words, we may have a lot of political violence that doesn't really add up to a civil war, but it may take many more years before the insanity is purged from the system.

At this point, my life remains unaffected, and I'm ready to defend my home and family if necessary. I don't want any political violence, but I will try to be prepared for it.

[pipistrelle]

What will happen when Meal Team 6 encounters their first urban gang?

[John Thomas8]

What will happen when Meal Team 6 encounters their first urban gang?

The number of innocent bystanders hit by both sides will far exceed the number of each other they hit.

Neither sets of those to induhviduals can shoot for shit.

[sugar magnolia]

What will happen when Meal Team 6 encounters their first urban gang?

The number of innocent bystanders hit by both sides will far exceed the number of each other they hit.

Neither sets of those to induhviduals can shoot for shit.

I'm thinking the yoots will have the higher body count though, since they are more about capacity and power than the "coolness" factor that the Meal Team 6 seems to prefer.

[John Thomas8]

The gravy team 6 yoots video themselves, showing how well they can hit paper/steel targets with their gamer guns.

At no point have they encountered return fire, which is the exact point where they will fail.

[Dave from down under]

think "the purge" movie premise every day till the ammo runs out.

[roadscholar]

What will happen when Meal Team 6 encounters their first urban gang?

Or us suburban liberal guerillas. I'm stocking up on ammo and buying a few more firearms. When tRump was in I got my CCL just in case.

And I practice. I'm an OK shot.

MAGA assholes attack me, I'm gonna attack back.