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TESLA and Elon Musk - anything not elsewhere

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Gregg
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#376

Post by Gregg »

neeneko wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 6:17 am I wonder if price cuts would have much of an effect on Tesla's target market. They are a 'premium' brand, you are already paying a pretty heft price for something which value is in how it does something, not what it does. So this is not a very price conscious group in the first place.
The FOMO value of a Model S fades real fast when the customers realize first that the car has the fit, finish and overall quality of a Yugo and you can get some pretty nifty high end EVs from Audi, Mercedes, Jaguar, Infinity and well, everyone. Further, the "Tesla Quality for the Price of a Model 3" becomes a joke when they figure out the abovementioned Tesla quality and the Price of a Model 3 is at least $10k higher than models from Ford, GM, VW,

He had a tremendous first to market advantage and he's in the process of blowing it not much slower than he is blowing up Twitter.
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#377

Post by humblescribe »

Gregg wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 11:44 am
neeneko wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 6:17 am I wonder if price cuts would have much of an effect on Tesla's target market. They are a 'premium' brand, you are already paying a pretty heft price for something which value is in how it does something, not what it does. So this is not a very price conscious group in the first place.
The FOMO value of a Model S fades real fast when the customers realize first that the car has the fit, finish and overall quality of a Yugo and you can get some pretty nifty high end EVs from Audi, Mercedes, Jaguar, Infinity and well, everyone. Further, the "Tesla Quality for the Price of a Model 3" becomes a joke when they figure out the abovementioned Tesla quality and the Price of a Model 3 is at least $10k higher than models from Ford, GM, VW,

He had a tremendous first to market advantage and he's in the process of blowing it not much slower than he is blowing up Twitter.
Tesla's real advantage was their Supercharger network for DC level 3 charging that blankets the globe. Here in the US of A and Canada, nearly all interstate and TransCanada highways have their charging stations spaced generally no less than 80-100 miles apart. Many very highly traveled highways will have a concentration of locations much closer. Stalls range in size from 4 (these are from 2012-15) to now as many as 80 (near Harris Ranch on Interstate 5 near Coalinga.) The average size today is about 10 stalls per location. In addition, many US numbered highways like US101 and US395 have charging spots 60-100 miles apart. Tesla does a very good job of maintaining them when they go kaput or when tweakers vandalize the charging cables for the $5 of copper wire. I've never had a problem over the years when traveling from California to Denver, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Pittsburgh, and elsewhere.

In contrast the other DC level 3 charging networks are a mish-mash. Some max out at 50kW. Others at 150kW. Some of the newer ones can deliver 350kW. It takes time to investigate which speeds are at which locations and then figure out when you arrive which stall is which. :confuzzled: There are about four or five private companies that construct, maintain, and charge for use. It is like traveling in the 50s-70s when you needed gas credit cards for Union, Standard, Richfield, Mobil, Conoco, Sinclair, Phillips 66, Shell, and others. You need to have apps or RFID cards or some way to pay for the juice for these proprietary charging stations. Many sites have only one or two charging stalls. Frequently these sites are down. They don't always deliver their stated capacity in kilowatts, either. (Likely due to infrastructure or cheaping out on the equipment.)

Software updates are automatic and can be installed at home. My good friend recently purchased a Porsche Taycan. He has to go to the dealer and have the dealer install the updates not while he waits--he has to return a day or two later to fetch his car.

In other words, until the Audis, Jags, Mercedes, Infinity, et al figure out a way to allow their cars to charge easily and quickly on the road, they will not be as compelling for road trips--even relatively short ones of 200 miles one-way.

But no argument on the build quality.
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#378

Post by Gregg »

Ford says they have an adequate charging network, I dunno know true that is because mine is a PHEV and for more than commuting I drive with the gas motor. If we don't have one yet, I can assure you we will, every dime the ICE side of the business is making from here on out is being reinvested in the EV business.

I assume everyone else will do as well, or more likely everyone BUT Tesla, who already have standard charge interface hardware, will develop a cooperative network that they are partners in or not but that works for everyone. Tesla is looking to me kind of like Apple v. PC in some ways. A lot of people claim it's better tech, but since it insists on being different it will eventually have to settle on being niche just because it's not the standard. Third party vendors will always be making anything for them secondary to the wider market.

Just the way I see some things.
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#379

Post by humblescribe »

It seems foolish to have separate brands for a fungible and highly regulated commodity like electricity. It would be like only being able to fill up your Ford at Chevron stations, but Chevys and Buicks must use ARCO.

I may be mistaken on this, but I think that Ford has entered into some sort of an agreement with Electrify America to help build out their network in exchange for discounted prices when Ford drivers charge. I seem to recall reading something along those lines about a year ago.

Your Apple/PC analogy is pretty accurate. But something is going to have to change in the coming decade. Either convenience stores will have to have a variety of charging stations to service all makes and models, or there will be some sort of licensing agreement with Tesla and the other manufacturers. The Tesla plug is small and compact, not the clunky CCS-Combo plug that looks like Frankenstein's monster. Tesla already has a smooth billing process in place: You simply upload your credit card info into the database, and once the handshake is consummated, your card is only charged what flows out of the meter. You don't have to push a deposit onto your account to be depleted each time you charge, and then get a nagging reminder that your deposit balance has dropped below the minimum threshold.

This is the CCS-Combo. Beneath it is the Tesla port for all types of charging, both AC and DC.
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#380

Post by noblepa »

Not being an EV owner, I've often wondered about the charging systems used.

Wouldn't it be a good idea for the federal government to mandate a standard charging plug and system? They already mandate gas filler nozzle diameter and require vapor capture systems on gas pumps.

Even if they don't mandate a nationwide standard, the Federal government could mandate a single standard for all the EVs that the gov't buys. That would become a defacto standard.

One of the obstacles to the adoption of any alternative fuel, such as hydrogen or electricity, on a large scale is the lack of refueling/charging infrastructure. Even E85 is hard to find, and it doesn't require that gas stations install new pumps or tanks.

Mandating a standard would, IMHO, go a long way toward solving the infrastructure problem.
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#381

Post by pipistrelle »

noblepa wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 7:07 pm Mandating a standard would, IMHO, go a long way toward solving the infrastructure problem.
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#382

Post by neeneko »

humblescribe wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 3:52 pm Tesla's real advantage was their Supercharger network for DC level 3 charging that blankets the globe.
Something I find rather funny are the people I run into who swear up and down how only sheep get themselves locked in the Apple walled garden, but are thrilled to be locked into Tesla's charging network and maintenance.
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#383

Post by Sam the Centipede »

I'm not in the EV world so in the search for more background out of pure curiosity I found an article which gives a feel for the messiness of the present situation: Connector types for EV charging around the world
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#384

Post by northland10 »

That is still fewer connectors than the drawer of phone ones I have collected over the years.
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#385

Post by Gregg »

noblepa wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 7:07 pm Not being an EV owner, I've often wondered about the charging systems used.

Wouldn't it be a good idea for the federal government to mandate a standard charging plug and system? They already mandate gas filler nozzle diameter and require vapor capture systems on gas pumps.

Even if they don't mandate a nationwide standard, the Federal government could mandate a single standard for all the EVs that the gov't buys. That would become a defacto standard.

One of the obstacles to the adoption of any alternative fuel, such as hydrogen or electricity, on a large scale is the lack of refueling/charging infrastructure. Even E85 is hard to find, and it doesn't require that gas stations install new pumps or tanks.

Mandating a standard would, IMHO, go a long way toward solving the infrastructure problem.

The SAE already issued a plug standard, I think probably before TESLA even built cars, but I dunno for sure. Everybody in the US Market uses it except TESLA. It is capable of charging a step faster than what a Tier 3 charger can now do but beyond that we're gonna need a bigger plug because of heat. Ford is working on a liquid cooled charging cable in house but would likely license it.

If you have a Ford EV you can set up an account on MyFord just like Tesla that keeps you from having to fiddle around with single payments.
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#386

Post by Gregg »

neeneko wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 7:45 pm
humblescribe wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 3:52 pm Tesla's real advantage was their Supercharger network for DC level 3 charging that blankets the globe.
Something I find rather funny are the people I run into who swear up and down how only sheep get themselves locked in the Apple walled garden, but are thrilled to be locked into Tesla's charging network and maintenance.
There are adaptors so a Tesla can use a standard charging station. I think the difference does more to prevent a guy in a Ford using their network, which even if you pay them they would rather reserve for their customers in the beginning to drive car sales. That feature of their difference gets outdated more every day.
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#387

Post by Volkonski »

Elon Musk begins trial over Tesla tweet that cost him $20m

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-64293744
A trial into a tweet by Elon Musk alleging that he would take Tesla private in a $72bn (£58.7bn) buyout is set to begin on Tuesday.

Mr Musk is being sued by Tesla shareholders, who say that he manipulated the share price of the company.

In 2018, he tweeted that he had "funding secured" to take the carmaker private.

However the funding was not secured - and Tesla was not taken private.

Shareholders argued that they lost billions of dollars due to the tweet after the share price plummeted.

The Tesla CEO, however, argued that he believed he had secured funding from Saudi Arabia's Investment Fund, and did not commit securities fraud.
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#388

Post by humblescribe »

Gregg wrote: Tue Jan 17, 2023 3:20 am
noblepa wrote: Mon Jan 16, 2023 7:07 pm Not being an EV owner, I've often wondered about the charging systems used.

Wouldn't it be a good idea for the federal government to mandate a standard charging plug and system? They already mandate gas filler nozzle diameter and require vapor capture systems on gas pumps.

Even if they don't mandate a nationwide standard, the Federal government could mandate a single standard for all the EVs that the gov't buys. That would become a defacto standard.

One of the obstacles to the adoption of any alternative fuel, such as hydrogen or electricity, on a large scale is the lack of refueling/charging infrastructure. Even E85 is hard to find, and it doesn't require that gas stations install new pumps or tanks.

Mandating a standard would, IMHO, go a long way toward solving the infrastructure problem.

The SAE already issued a plug standard, I think probably before TESLA even built cars, but I dunno for sure. Everybody in the US Market uses it except TESLA. It is capable of charging a step faster than what a Tier 3 charger can now do but beyond that we're gonna need a bigger plug because of heat. Ford is working on a liquid cooled charging cable in house but would likely license it.

If you have a Ford EV you can set up an account on MyFord just like Tesla that keeps you from having to fiddle around with single payments.
I think the SAE J1772 plug came about in the 00s, but could be mistaken. They were the only style available. Typically they charged at 30A with single phase 240 volts or triple phase 208 volts. So, they could push 6.2 to 7.2 kW depending upon service and the onboard charger on the car. (some cars came with only 24A chargers.) Tesla sells all its cars with the J1772 adapter to the Tesla charge port.

A few companies seized upon the J1772 and offered up their units to push as many as 80 amps into cars. Clipper Creek and Eaton come to mind. Our Canadian cousins in 2014 or so decided to promote the Sun Highway across the western provinces and all the way to the Maritimes. They installed 80A Level 2 stations with free(!) electricity about every 100-150 miles or so.

I am not sure when the SAE developed its Level 3 configuration, but I suspect it was around the time the Tesla engineers were working on their proprietary hardware, say ~2010ish. The picture that I shared above is capable of 350kW, and is a more recent iteration. I think the initial CCS plug maxed out at 50kW. There was talk that Tesla wanted in on the research but was rejected, so they went their way. Musk allegedly offered up their patents to anyone for free as long as Tesla owners could avail themselves of the charging locations. Anyone declined.

The first iteration of Tesla's Level 3 was capable of 90kW. About a year later they ramped it up to 120kW, and shortly thereafter decided that the cars could take 150kW. These installations are all air-cooled. In 2019 Tesla started installing their second iteration of Level 3 with liquid cooling so that these stalls can push 250kW into cars if everything is perfect.

Good on Ford. I wonder what the other manufacturers are/will be doing.
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#389

Post by RTH10260 »

Tesla’s used car prices are in freefall, but Elon Musk is not chiefly to blame, according to influential YouTube star

Christiaan Hetzner
Mon, January 16, 2023 at 3:25 PM GMT+1

Tesla’s used vehicle prices are “sinking like a stone” and one of social media’s best-known car reviewers he has a theory as to why. But it’s not what one might assume.

Doug Demuro has test driven just about every four-wheeler you can find on U.S. roads and many you cannot: not only has his expertise garnered him a subscriber base on his YouTube channel of nearly 4.6 million followers, he also runs a used vehicle auction site called Cars & Bids.

“The crazy [high] prices we’ve seen over the last 18 months for Teslas—they are gone and they’re certainly not coming back. There is no question about that,” he warned on Sunday, recommending customers looking to list their vehicles accept markdown offers before they fall any further.

His business gives him unique insight into the going market value for a Tesla, which have come under heavy pressure over the last three months even before last week’s controversial price cuts for new vehicles abruptly lowered what people are willing to pay for a second-hand model.

Instead, the Federal Reserve's inflation-fighting campaign has had a much greater effect on Tesla's pricing power in the used vehicle market.

“This rise in interest rates really hit Tesla hard because of the specific kind of people buying the cars,” DeMuro believes, adding they often have jobs where higher borrowing costs impact them more acutely than the general population.




https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/tesl ... 12241.html
(original: Fortune)
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#390

Post by Gregg »

Somewhere in here I haven't mentioned that Tesla charging is DC and everyone else is AC.
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#391

Post by busterbunker »

Gregg wrote: Wed Jan 18, 2023 12:48 pm Somewhere in here I haven't mentioned that Tesla charging is DC and everyone else is AC.
Ironic as Nikola Tesla is known for his work on AC.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nikola_Tesla
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#392

Post by Gregg »

I've always thought that Tesla was a guy who gets a lot more credit from people who are trying to show they're contra than he actually deserves. He was a good engineer, he was right and Edison was wrong. But he didn't have some secret 500 mpg carburator type idea that the government suppressed just because it was so brilliant it would have made life better for everyone.

For all that he's still a lot better than the garage band and the car.
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#393

Post by RTH10260 »

Tesla video promoting self-driving was staged, engineer testifies

Tue, January 17, 2023 at 6:11 PM GMT+1
By Hyunjoo Jin

(Reuters) - A 2016 video that Tesla used to promote its self-driving technology was staged to show capabilities like stopping at a red light and accelerating at a green light that the system did not have, according to testimony by a senior engineer.

The video, which remains archived on Tesla’s website, was released in October 2016 and promoted on Twitter by Chief Executive Elon Musk as evidence that “Tesla drives itself.”

But the Model X was not driving itself with technology Tesla had deployed, Ashok Elluswamy, director of Autopilot software at Tesla, said in the transcript of a July deposition taken as evidence in a lawsuit against Tesla for a 2018 fatal crash involving a former Apple engineer.

The previously unreported testimony by Elluswamy represents the first time a Tesla employee has confirmed and detailed how the video was produced.

The video carries a tagline saying: “The person in the driver’s seat is only there for legal reasons. He is not doing anything. The car is driving itself.”

Elluswamy said Tesla’s Autopilot team set out to engineer and record a “demonstration of the system’s capabilities” at the request of Musk.



https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/tesl ... 47934.html
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#394

Post by tek »

A 2016 video that Tesla used to promote its self-driving technology was staged to show capabilities like stopping at a red light and accelerating at a green light that the system did not have, according to testimony by a senior engineer.
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#395

Post by neeneko »

Gregg wrote: Wed Jan 18, 2023 7:10 pm I've always thought that Tesla was a guy who gets a lot more credit from people who are trying to show they're contra than he actually deserves. He was a good engineer, he was right and Edison was wrong. But he didn't have some secret 500 mpg carburator type idea that the government suppressed just because it was so brilliant it would have made life better for everyone.

For all that he's still a lot better than the garage band and the car.
Yeah, Tesla is a larger than life mythos that serves as an anchor point for conspiracy theories and people's identities. One of the reasons he has gotten such a following is he was quite a showman, making all sorts of claims about his ideas but was rarely able to follow through.. which the myth has twisted to 'all his ideas were real, but suppressed!'. He is the Atlantis for people who want something a bit less mystical.
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#396

Post by Foggy »

The myth is going to lose its punch if Teslas get shuffled to the bottom of the deck of EVs in the foreseeable future. The thing Gregg mentioned, about their charging system using DC and everybody else using AC, that's kind of a big (huge) (ginormous) factor in which EV to buy.

When the tech is ready and the charging systems are widely spread, electric vehicles are going to be everywhere. I have told my kids many times that in the future, if they want to see an ICE vehicle, they'll have to go to a museum.

But the tech is not ready. Range is still a serious problem. There will be a charger every 80 miles!

My dad's place is a little under 240 miles away. So I can drive 80 miles, and then wait three or four hours while I get a fill up (of clean, beautiful electrons instead of nasty smelly gasoline). And then I can drive another 80 miles, and if I start early enough, I might not have to rent a hotel room for the night.

Or my gas powered car can just drive there in four hours. Six with traffic.
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#397

Post by Gregg »

Foggy wrote: Thu Jan 19, 2023 11:31 am The myth is going to lose its punch if Teslas get shuffled to the bottom of the deck of EVs in the foreseeable future. The thing Gregg mentioned, about their charging system using DC and everybody else using AC, that's kind of a big (huge) (ginormous) factor in which EV to buy.

When the tech is ready and the charging systems are widely spread, electric vehicles are going to be everywhere. I have told my kids many times that in the future, if they want to see an ICE vehicle, they'll have to go to a museum.

But the tech is not ready. Range is still a serious problem. There will be a charger every 80 miles!

My dad's place is a little under 240 miles away. So I can drive 80 miles, and then wait three or four hours while I get a fill up (of clean, beautiful electrons instead of nasty smelly gasoline). And then I can drive another 80 miles, and if I start early enough, I might not have to rent a hotel room for the night.

Or my gas powered car can just drive there in four hours. Six with traffic.

That's not true anymore. Typical range for an all EV car is 300 miles nominal and up to 450 ideal. If your car is capable of DCFC charging it can be charged to 80% in as little as 20 minutes. And it's only going to get better. The chokepoint right now is the car, the charger technogy is running ahead of how fast you can push electrons into the battery.

If you're driving a car, not towing, and it's not below 20 degrees outside, almost all EVs will get you a solid 200 miles on a charge in bad conditions and in good conditions 300 is about the median range for one.
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#398

Post by MN-Skeptic »

The thing that's always concerned me about an all electric car is the winter performance here in the Upper Midwest. Batteries don't last as long when it's very cold. We've had days where it hasn't hit zero degrees for a high. For 32 day, from 12/30/2008 - 1/30/2009, it didn't get up to freezing. I could see maybe getting a hybrid car, but I would be hesitant, at this time, to get an all electric car.
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#399

Post by humblescribe »

I think the technology behind battery life in cold climates is getting better. Most cars now have an onboard battery heater that circulates coolant (ironically) throughout the cells to keep the battery's internal temperature where it ought to be. Yeah, you will need to keep your car plugged in when home so that your car can draw wall power instead of draining the traction battery.

Many people from Wisconsin and North Dakota and Minnesnowta have had Teslas for 8+ years, and they have not complained about significant loss of capacity.

The biggest drawbacks to driving electric in freezing temperatures are (1) cold air is denser than warm air. It will take more energy to propel the car through that denser air. (2) Heating the cabin will take a lot of juice from the battery, so range will suffer. (3) A cold battery will not be able to charge on Level 3 chargers very fast. So that will make journeys of longer distances take longer to charge until the battery is sufficiently warm enough. (4) Driving through a snowstorm also increases resistance which increases the power use.

Just to clarify what Gregg said: All electric cars can charge on AC. But AC is limited to the size of the onboard charger in the car. Most chargers can only accept 30-48 amps of current. Level 3 DC charging pushes direct current into the battery; the rectification of AC current takes place before the electricity enters the car. Accordingly, the car can receive a much larger jolt of juice. I think the original Nissan Leaf did not have Level 3 ability. But all cars manufactured today do.

And, even if frigid winters make one wary of embracing an all-electric vehicle for taking visits of hundreds and hundreds of miles, they are ideal as daily drivers for 30-50 mile commutes. Plug in at home overnight and leave in the morning with enough in the battery to take care of your needs.
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#400

Post by Gregg »

I drive an Escape PHEV. The "official" battery range is 37 miles, I get about 55 in the summer and better than 25 in the winter if I drive on the efficient route of my commute. Driving on an interstate cuts the range a lot, in the smmer it puts me back to the advertised 37ish miles and in the winter more like 20. My daily commute is 16.3 miles on the no expressway route, speed limit is 40 - 45 most of the way and I rearely drive in any kind of traffic. A very relaxing and EV range friendly drive.

For me, the PHEV is perfect. I buy gas every month on the last day of the month, unless I take a road trip that means I need it, but generally, last day of the month I buy about 3 gallons of gasoline. If I go to Gettysburg I can buy gas, if I go to Dearborn I can drive one of the test vehichles from work. I have a Level 2 charger at home and I can charge for free at work.

My "other" car when I have one is genrally a Mustang with a big ugly V8 that when I drive it needs about $60 worth of gas put in it every Friday. The Escape has saved me that $60 every week for 18 months and I'm looking forward to getting a new Corsair (the Lincoln version of theEscape) as my last car before I retire.
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