Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

[Tiredretiredlawyer]

...

Yeah, because of Dobbs, the Dems might do well this year.

But when it's over, Dobbs will still be there.

Yep, we're fucked. It's just a matter of whether we're proper fucked.

I love that movie!

[Luke]

Thanks, Foggy and friends.

Asking for a favor. Would folks please post bad news and opinions (which are totally reasonable) in the new "Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Lose Again" topic at https://thefogbow.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1603 and keep this "Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again" topic positive, please? This Win topic is my one small place to keep some hope and optimism alive during a really, really rough time in real life.

[Slim Cognito]

Will do!

[Luke]

BOOM!

Dave Wasserman @Redistrict 2h
In May, @CookPolitical's House outlook was a GOP gain of 20-35 seats. Based on recent developments, we've revised our outlook to a 10-20 seat GOP gain, w/ Dems maintaining control not out of the question.

Red Wave Looks More Like a Ripple
August 24, 2022 Amy Walter, Jessica Taylor and David Wasserman

That sound you hear is the crash of expectations of big GOP gains in the House this fall. Democrats notched a huge victory in New York’s 19th CD last night as Democrat Pat Ryan defeated Republican Marc Molinaro 51% to 49% in a Hudson Valley special election both parties had invested in. That’s roughly the same margin President Biden had carried the seat by in 2020. The result shouldn’t be shocking, considering Democrats had outperformed in other recent specials in NE-01 and MN-01. But Molinaro, regarded as a pragmatic executive of blue-leaning Dutchess County, had led in multiple polls throughout the race. Ryan, the younger Ulster County executive and decorated Army veteran, prevailed after a late push to make abortion rights the centerpiece of the campaign.

In Florida, former Governor and current Democratic Rep. Charlie Crist easily won his primary and will face GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis this fall. The fact that this low-key primary attracted as many votes (1.5 million) as the more high-profile Democratic gubernatorial and Senate contests of 2018, suggests that Democratic enthusiasm has been elevated...

Paywall. https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/ ... 6506e9c141

[Jim]

Michael Li 李之樸
@mcpli
·
Follow
As people think about the midterms, worth remembering that there actually are now slightly more districts post-redistricting that Joe Biden won in 2020 than there were before (227 vs. 224). Ds have a path to a House majority just through Biden districts

[Luke]

4 hours ago - Politics & Policy
Scoop: Obama enters the chat
Andrew Solender

Former President Barack Obama is jumping full-on into the midterms with a fundraiser for the Senate Democrats' campaign arm, Axios has learned.

Why it matters: The event comes as Democrats' once-poor outlook of keeping control of the upper chamber has improved amid pervasive candidate quality issues among Republican Senate contenders.

Driving the news: The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is hosting a Sept. 8 fundraiser feating a "conversation" headlined by Obama and Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), chair of the DSCC, according to an invite obtained by Axios.

Tickets for the New York City event are $25,000-a-pop for general admission and $50,000 for VIP, the invite says.

The backdrop: The former president is also headlining an Aug. 30 fundraiser for the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, Politico reported Monday.

That event is being held at Martha's Vineyard with NRDC president and former Attorney General Eric Holder.

https://www.axios.com/2022/08/25/scoop- ... s-the-chat

Foggy's taking us all to NYC Sep 8 to see President Obama!

[Tiredretiredlawyer]

Road trip!!!!!!!

[Luke]

Heck yeah, road trip!

4 hours ago - Politics & Policy
Democrats' stunning turnaround
Josh Kraushaar




Illustration of a donkey riding a red cross on a red wave.
Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios

Passion about abortion rights has fueled a stunning turnaround in Democrats’ midterm fortunes.

Why it matters: The inflation slowdown and lower gas prices also are big factors. But officials in both parties tell us abortion has animated Democratic engagement like no other issue since President Trump left office.

The result: A reset for a party that was defensive and disillusioned before the Supreme Court ruling in June that overturned Roe v. Wade. 75 days from election day, Democrats now have a good chance of keeping the Senate. And keeping the GOP to a narrow win in the House is now a realistic possibility.

What’s happening: Abortion has helped drive primary-season triumphs for Democrats both in fundraising and in turnout approaching, and in some cases exceeding, historic 2018 levels. Now, officials in both parties see signs that it could blunt a red wave of GOP midterm gains that once looked inevitable.

Driving the news: Tuesday night's primaries in New York and Florida offer the latest evidence. Democrat Pat Ryan's unexpected victory in a House special election (NY-19) was driven by a message centered on abortion. “Choice was on the ballot. Freedom was on the ballot, and tonight choice and freedom won," Ryan declared in a post-election victory statement. Ryan's ads focused on protecting abortion rights, while his GOP opponent Marc Molinaro hammered Democrats over the economy and crime. Ryan won by two points in a district Biden carried by the same margin. In Florida's gubernatorial primary, more Democrats showed up to vote (1,513,180) than in 2018 (1,509,960). Given that 2018 was a historically favorable year for Democrats and 2022 recently looked like a Democratic wipeout, the similar level of Democratic engagement is surprising.

The big picture: An Axios analysis found that Democratic primary turnout for governors' races increased between 2018 and 2022 in five of the eight states holding contested primaries after June, in the aftermath of the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision.

Over 922,000 Kansans showed up when an anti-abortion referendum was held in August, a significant turnout for a summer primary. The referendum lost by 18 points.
***
Recent polling confirms the growing significance of abortion rights in the midterm dynamic. A Pew Research Center poll conducted Aug. 1-14 found 56% of voters said the issue of abortion would be "very important" in their midterm decision. That's up 13 percentage points from Pew's March survey. The increased interest in abortion was entirely driven by Democratic voters. A new NBC News poll found Democrats closing in on Republican enthusiasm for voting in the midterms, driven by partisans citing abortion as a top issue. Only 38% said they supported the Dobbs decision, while 58% opposed it. Abortion rated as a top issue in last week's Fox News polls in Arizona and Wisconsin, moving closer to economic concerns. In Arizona, 20% of respondents said inflation was the most important issue in the Senate race, with 16% naming abortion rights. In Wisconsin, 28% named economic concerns as the top issue while abortion came in second at 17%.

The bottom line: The economy is still the dominant issue for voters. But lower gas prices in recent week are helping improve the mood for persuadable voters — and signaling to base voters that they can afford to let themselves be mobilized by issues like reproductive rights rather than pure pocketbook needs. "Gas prices coming down is such a powerful mood enhancement," said one Democratic strategist after witnessing a focus group in a Midwestern battleground race. "People complained about prices and general economic stuff, but there was some optimism that things were improving." "That allows people to focus on the social issue dynamics and divisiveness they don't like."

https://www.axios.com/2022/08/25/democr ... turnaround

(As always, special thanks to Lt Col Root Beer & Lt Biscuit & the 699th.)

[MN-Skeptic]

This! It's worth checking out Aaron Rupar's tweet thread.

[Luke]

Thanks, MN and bring it on! For two years, President Biden's tried to work with these jackasses. Democrats held up the agenda for months trying to find common ground. Now it's time to draw some contrasts.

Biden slams MAGA Republicans for "semi-fascism"
Rebecca Falconer

President Biden railed against Trump-allied Republicans Rockville, Maryland, on Thursday night in his first political rally speech in the leadup to November's midterm elections.

Why it matters: Biden's comments that "MAGA Republicans" are a "threat" to democracy and other criticisms of former President Trump and his "Make America Great Again" movement are some of his most pointed yet.

Of note: Biden's comments at a donor event for Democrats earlier in the evening that "it's not just Trump, it's the entire philosophy that underpins the — I'm going to say something — it's like semi-fascism" raised the ire of some Republicans.

What he's saying: "The MAGA Republicans don't just threaten our personal rights and economic security," Biden said. "They're a threat to our very democracy. They refuse to accept the will of the people. They embrace ... political violence. They don't believe in democracy. "This is why in this moment, those of you who love this country — Democrats, independents, mainstream Republicans — we must be stronger," he added. Biden also told the cheering crowd that in 2020, "you and 81 million Americans voted to save our democracy" — and "that's why Donald Trump isn't just a former president, he is a defeated former president."

The big picture: During his speech, Biden seized on key differences between Republicans and Democrats ahead of the midterms. "I want to be crystal-clear about what's on the ballot this year," Biden said. "Your right to choose is on the ballot this year. The Social Security you paid for from the time you had a job is on the ballot. The safety of our kids from gun violence is on the ballot." Addressing a push by some conservatives for a national abortion ban, Biden said: "MAGA Republicans don't have a clue about the power of women. Let me tell you something: They are about to find out." Meanwhile, Biden made the case for Democrats' policies to tackle climate change, saying: "It's not hyperbole — the very survival of our planet is on the ballot."

Between the lines: Biden's comments come as a Fox News poll out this week shows Democrats are equally as motivated about the midterms as Republicans, in a shift from previous polling.

https://www.axios.com/2022/08/26/biden- ... land-rally





And... the timing of inflation reduction, legislation and Biden's approval is proving the MAGA Party was right when they feared they peaked three months too early. So sad.

Larry Sabato @LarrySabato 14h
Whoa. Gallup now has Biden job approval up to 44-53%. It's been a while since we've seen approval that high. Yes, still not great, but POTUS has waved goodbye to the 30s for now.

[pipistrelle]

Bill Kristol was clutching pearls over the tweets from the White House in response to Republican whines about student loan forgiveness that showed the congressperson's PPP forgiveness. No, it's not right to snark from the official White House account! The crowd, however, was cheering. "More, please!" Someone thought Pete had been given the keys. I had no problem with them because they were strictly statements of fact, but they drove the point home. That's why I think people were loving it. It's fighting back hard, just like the comment about the wealthy. And it's going over well. Just what people wanted to see.

[keith]

Is itjust me?

I have a hard time getting excited over Crist. I seem torecall he was pretty skewiff when he was Governor before.

Now that hes a DINO, why should we expect much more from him?

Okay, a cockroach would be better than deathsantis, but is a 90% asshole really that much better than a 100% asshole?

[Kriselda Gray]

Is itjust me?

I have a hard time getting excited over Crist. I seem torecall he was pretty skewiff when he was Governor before.

Now that hes a DINO, why should we expect much more from him?

Okay, a cockroach would be better than deathsantis, but is a 90% asshole really that much better than a 100% asshole?

Depends on what makes them an asshole. If the things that make Crist an asshole are less damaging than the things that make Desantis one, then it's a HUGE difference. If they're just as damaging, then, no, the difference isn't all that great.

[Suranis]

Is itjust me?

I have a hard time getting excited over Crist. I seem torecall he was pretty skewiff when he was Governor before.

Now that hes a DINO, why should we expect much more from him?

Okay, a cockroach would be better than deathsantis, but is a 90% asshole really that much better than a 100% asshole?

Yes.

It's that kind of thinking that got you Trump in the White House. Honestly, its time to start growing up.

[Slim Cognito]

Is itjust me?

I have a hard time getting excited over Crist. I seem torecall he was pretty skewiff when he was Governor before.

Now that hes a DINO, why should we expect much more from him?

Okay, a cockroach would be better than deathsantis, but is a 90% asshole really that much better than a 100% asshole?

If DeSantis 100% asshole is the scale, then I would rate Crist about 40 or 50% tops and, yes, that is a big improvement.

[Suranis]

That "oh is he really any better/I'm not excited for him" is exactly the wedge the right wing pound constantly to get everyone else fighting one another and driving down turnout.

It's a Mike Pense wannabe vs Al Capone. You don't have to get excited for the guy, you just have to vote for him. If you want to spend your energy productively, then work on getting someone more to your liking into the chair for the next time.

[Foggy]

Yeah some kids showed up at a meeting of the Progressives and told us that if Hillary beat Bernie in 2016, they wouldn't vote in the general election because they were not going to choose the lesser of two evils.

And I pointed out how often, as Earthlings, they choose the lesser of two evils. Life is involved with choices, and if you consistently choose the worser of two evils your life will not be pleasant.

It would be nice to have all my clothing custom made in pure silk. 'Course, I can't affect such luxury, so I wear a lot of cotton and wool.

Alternatively, I could refuse to wear clothes entirely. Why would I choose the lesser of two evils by wearing clothes I can afford?

My car isn't perfect. My home isn't perfect. I just try to get along.

But they were kids. I don't think I got through.

[Luke]

Nancy Pelosi @TeamPelosi 1h
US House candidate, CA-11

Democrats will hold the House, add 2 senators, and break the filibuster for the John Lewis Voting Rights Act and the Women’s Health Protection Act to codify Roe and enshrine our freedoms.

Women, know your power and show your power. We are NOT going back!

#WomensEqualityDay

[Gregg]

Is itjust me?

I have a hard time getting excited over Crist. I seem torecall he was pretty skewiff when he was Governor before.

Now that hes a DINO, why should we expect much more from him?

Okay, a cockroach would be better than deathsantis, but is a 90% asshole really that much better than a 100% asshole?

Yes, I'll take the 10% not asshole part and if he knocks DeSantis out of being seriously considered for President, I'll take the bonus, too.

[keith]

Yeah, good points all

[Ben-Prime]

I worked for government agencies under Jeb Bush, Charlie Crist, and Rick Scott, all as at least nominal Republicans. Let me tell you that Crist was far and away the least bad of the lot. I had just resigned from the last regional-level-but-state-guided (my old CEO and board can, in fact, be fired/dissolved by the Governor, and my contacts at that old job tell me that in addition to the once or twice Scott threatened to during my time there, DeSantis has threatened to at least once, because it's Broward County and so most of our board and upper management tilt Team Blue) job when I joined the Foreign Service.

I would take Charlie Crist over any and all of those GOP challengers any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Nikki Fried, I was excited about when she first became Ag Commissioner, but that dimmed pretty quickly; I would have been in for her if she beat Crist, but I do not consider it a tragedy that she did not.

[Luke]

You're amazing Ben, I really appreciate your posts and learn a lot from you.

Always happy to encourage the MAGA Party to follow Lindell, Lin Wood, and the dotard's lead. One MAGA isn't onboard.

Jesse Kelly @JesseKellyDC 1h
I’m as mad about 2020 as anyone. Well, probably not as mad as Trump is. But still mad.

That said, Team Trump needs to tighten this up. It’s not 2016. It’s not 2020. People are in BAD shape right now and they’re scared.

Leave 2020 alone. Focus on 2024. Time to move on.

OrlyLicious @Orly_licious 1h
No way. Trump is right, keep talking about #Election2020. From Trump to Lin Wood to Mike Lindell they say #Fix2020First or don't vote in #Midterms2022. They're right. Until MAGA sends a strong message by boycotting the Midterms, the weak GOP won't learn MAGA isn't playing around.

fire21 @20dumpsterfire
Replying to @Orly_licious and @JesseKellyDC
Yeah this strategy ended up perfectly in Georgia senate races. You realize that if you choose the don't vote option we will never remedy anything. We'll be stuck in this death spiral indefinitely. No serious person is like don't vote guys...that will show them.

[bob]

538's Senate prediction moved from a continued 50-50 tie to a one-seat pickup, i.e., Pennsylvania (and defend all other seats).

This is brought on by Johnson's current fall in Wisconsin, i.e., it is possible Democrats could lose, say, Georgia, but then gain Wisconsin (in addition to Pennsylvania).

[pipistrelle]

538's Senate prediction moved from a continued 50-50 tie to a one-seat pickup, i.e., Pennsylvania (and defend all other seats).

This is brought on by Johnson's current fall in Wisconsin, i.e., it is possible Democrats could lose, say, Georgia, but then gain Wisconsin (in addition to Pennsylvania).

I don't think Vance is going to win Ohio. I keep repeating that to myself.

[Gregg]

My wish list...


Ohio
North Carolina
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
Florida