Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

[Ben-Prime]

Ignore him. He’s tryin to get a rise.

I treat him as our local proof of Poe's Law and block him accordingly, if you mean whom I think you mean.

[Tiredretiredlawyer]

So, Ben, I had to look up Poe's Law, which then made me look up another word which is "salvific". We Catholic school girls were never taught these "principles".

[Dr. Ken]

I was always more partial to cole's law

[bbflatt]

I was always more partial to cole's law

finely shredded cabbage?

[Phoenix520]

[pjhimself]

It's important to note that linking a claim to Poe's Law is not the same as suggesting that said claim is actually any type of parody at all. On the contrary, linking to Poe's Law just means that you could not tell if said claim was parody or indeed sincerely held crankiness — assuming the original claimant didn't provide a clear indication of their intent. When one is presented with a claim so over-the-top as to either be a brilliant parody or reflect a genuinely outrageous extremist belief, Poe's Law has been invoked. Rule of thumb is that the more controversial the topic is, the more likely what someone is saying is a Poe.

https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Poe%27s_Law

It’s a thread about elections and democrats. Poe is not a candidate (yet).

[Dr. Ken]

People should know by now anytime somone brings up Poe's law I'm going to bring up Cole's Law.

[pjhimself]

People should know by now anytime somone brings up Poe's law I'm going to bring up Cole's Law.

finely shredded cabbage?

[Foggy]

Off Topic

I had a client named Godwin, so I asked her, "Like Godwin's Law, amirite?"

She hadn't heard of it, but she thought it was very cool.

This is the level of service we provide. You get health insurance and vitally important information.

[pjhimself]

Why are people posting Right wing videos in this thread? Especially without comment.

This strikes me as a curious observation. I found no rule prohibiting such posts in this or other threads.

I also found it curious when looking at the various posts on this thread about elections and who will win, there were references to: polls, Trump, statistics with no references, redistricting, Poe (deceased), coleslaw, aging, and a variety of other stuff. I did not read all the posts on this thread so my focus may be misguided.

Yet, according to the Washington Post, voters who may (or not) elect democrats are concerned about:
- inflation/economy
- abortion
- crime
- the border
- education/identity

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... -midterms/

I dare say posters ought to concentrate on democrat records on these voter issues before considering victory.
Some voters probably will without reading your posts (or mine).

[much ado]

Why are people posting Right wing videos in this thread? Especially without comment.

This strikes me as a curious observation. I found no rule prohibiting such posts in this or other threads.

The general rule is that posts should be made to the most appropriate topic. The topic here is why democrats are going to win in 2022, not why they are likely to lose. You should create a new topic for your posts, for example, "Why democratic hopes for a win in 2022 are seriously misguided", or something like that.

I also found it curious when looking at the various posts on this thread about elections and who will win, there were references to: polls, Trump, statistics with no references, redistricting, Poe (deceased), coleslaw, aging, and a variety of other stuff. I did not read all the posts on this thread so my focus may be misguided.

You are welcome to comment on those posts, pointing out why they are wrong or complain about posts being off-topic, as many of us do.

Yet, according to the Washington Post, voters who may (or not) elect democrats are concerned about:
- inflation/economy
- abortion
- crime
- the border
- education/identity

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... -midterms/

There are existing topics for all these issues. You can contribute to the dialog there.

The basic point is that a general right-wing video posted to this topic without comment explaining the point of the post is not helpful.

I dare say posters ought to concentrate on democrat records on these voter issues before considering victory.
Some voters probably will without reading your posts (or mine).

We can be optimistic if we want to be. Your mileage may vary.

[pjhimself]

Woot.

The rule is:

Be kind to one another.

That’s from the “rules” thread.

As for the rest, you’ve proven my point(s).
Adios farewell, enjoy.

[Gregg]

I love the guy who self designates as the asshole.

Don't feed the troll.

[sugar magnolia]

I'm still looking for the unkind comments.

[pjhimself]

I love the guy who self designates as the asshole.

Don't feed the troll.

.”being kind to one another”

[sugar magnolia]

I love the guy who self designates as the asshole.

Don't feed the troll.

.”being kind to one another”

But you posted before he did, so how was it aimed at him?

[pjhimself]

I love the guy who self designates as the asshole.

Don't feed the troll.

.”being kind to one another”

But you posted before he did, so how was it aimed at him?

I’m not sure who this is directed at but I haven’t called anyone a bodily aperture, anywhere on this forum.
Carry on.

[Luke]

It's a trap... to debate.

Walker's fumbles highlight GOP's rocky Senate roster
Even if the Trump-backed Republican nominee in Georgia can get back on script, the party also has potential worries in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Arizona.
By MARIANNE LEVINE, BURGESS EVERETT and NATALIE ALLISON 07/27/2022 04:31 AM EDT

Raphael Warnock wants to debate Herschel Walker. Republicans smell a trap. As Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) sees it, Democrats are pushing for the former NFL star to debate their incumbent in Georgia’s hotly contested Senate race because “they feel like that’s an advantage for their side. And I don’t think Herschel Walker should do anything that gives his opponent an advantage.” But Cramer also warned his party not to choreograph Walker too closely as the former President Donald Trump-backed Republican tries to evict Warnock from the Senate: “Talking a lot, you make mistakes. Not talking, you don’t make mistakes. Except for the mistake of not talking … people are much more forgiving of your gaffes if you’re talking to them a lot.” [um, what? Thanks, Kev ]

The Warnock-Walker matchup in Georgia isn’t the only midterm race where the Senate GOP is starting to worry about blowing it in a tough environment for Democrats. From Pennsylvania to Ohio to Georgia to Arizona, Republicans are being outraised and not yet running away with must-win races that they need to flip the Senate in November. And as powerful as Walker’s high name recognition in his state may be, his penchant for going off-script may neutralize it. With Walker trailing Warnock even as Republican Gov. Brian Kemp leads Democrat Stacey Abrams, the party is paying close attention.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee sent staff down to Georgia to aid Walker’s campaign, according to two people familiar with the matter, and he shuffled his campaign team. Walker also made lower-profile public appearances on the trail after going viral with confusing remarks about air pollution, revealing several previously unknown children and backing a national abortion ban that divides the GOP. Now Warnock is trying to draw Walker into a debate to further expose the Republican’s erratic rhetoric. “We’ve got some strong candidates. Some that, I think, are less strong,” said Sen. Mitt Romney (R-Utah). “Let’s just say Herschel Walker, I think, is having a hard time getting his running legs back.”
***
Still, one Republican operative involved in Senate races said behind the scenes that, earlier this summer, “there was almost existential concern” about the Walker campaign. This Republican, who spoke candidly on condition of anonymity, said there’s still time for a course correction but that “if the election were today, he would not win.” The Walker campaign did not respond to a request for comment.
***
But while the GOP super PAC Senate Leadership Fund is set to outspend its Democratic rival, candidate fundraising can make a huge difference because of favorable ad rates that campaigns receive. And in Ohio, Rep. Tim Ryan dramatically out-raised (and out-spent) Republican nominee Vance, while polling in the state Trump won by 8 points in 2020 hasn’t shown Vance with a commanding lead. In Pennsylvania, Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman continues to lead GOP nominee Mehmet Oz in polling, fundraising and favorability, despite taking more than two months off the trail following a life-threatening stroke in May. Oz secured the nomination only after a primary race recount, which forced the TV doctor to spend time shoring up relationships with disenchanted party activists. Still, Senate Republicans insist those races will come back toward the GOP. NRSC Chair Rick Scott (R-Fla.) defended the quality of GOP candidates even as he acknowledged some have “got a lot of work to do catching up on the fundraising.”
***
Unresolved GOP primaries in Arizona and New Hampshire could also reshape the map. Trump-endorsed Blake Masters in Arizona is facing attacks over his past controversial comments dating back to college, including suggesting the U.S. should not have participated in World Wars I and II, and favorably quoting a noted antisemitic libertarian and a Nazi officer. Masters, a Stanford University alumnus and protégé of libertarian tech magnate Peter Thiel, more recently doubled down on praise of the ideology of the “Unabomber” Ted Kaczynski. With Trump’s backing, Masters emerged as the frontrunner in the primary even as Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) continues to haul in millions of dollars.

And in New Hampshire, there’s no standout in the Sept. 13 primary to face Sen. Maggie Hassan (D-N.H.). After Sununu rebuffed national Republican leaders’ efforts to recruit him for a Senate run, lesser-known GOP contenders lined up to compete for the nomination — all while Hassan spends big on TV ads to boost her own image as Biden’s popularity craters.

Add it all up, and Senate Democrats see a relatively bright outlook, all things considered. “It’s wrong for any party to believe they automatically inherit enthusiasm. You have to create it with quality candidates,” said Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.). “History is on [Republicans’] side. But the polls are not.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/2 ... e-00048031

Today is an EXCELLENT day to call a few friends to make sure they are registered and to get a commitment they'll be voting!

[Tiredretiredlawyer]

I didn't know I didn't know.

https://ballotpedia.org/Media_definitio ... e_election

Media definitions of a wave election

The term wave election is frequently used to describe an election cycle in which one party makes significant gains in the U.S. Senate or U.S. House.

There is no consensus on how many seats must be gained for an election to qualify as a wave, and some definitions are more expansive, also considering a party's performance in gubernatorial and state legislature races.

Factors identified as precipitators of a wave election include:

The popularity of the president
The number of open seats
The success or failure of a major policy initiative

Media definitions

The Los Angeles Times: "There is no authoritative definition of a wave election. (Which is not to be confused with a realigning election, like those in 1932 and 1968, in which a party forges a new and enduring presidential coalition.) A wave election is commonly considered one in which a political party wins a large and lopsided number of House and Senate seats while sustaining minimal losses. In the past 20 years, there have been several wave elections of that type, including 1994 when Republicans netted 54 House and 10 Senate seats; 2006 when Democrats won 31 House and six Senate seats; 2008 when Democrats gained 21 House and eight Senate seats, and—most spectacularly—the last midterm vote, in 2010, when the GOP won 63 House seats and four in the Senate."[3]

[Luke]

Howard Dean and Michael Steele were on with Ari. Michael said he's seeing compelling data that Democrats can keep the Senate (me too also). Howard said he's seeing data that shows the House could stay in Democratic hands (me too also). They both seemed to agree that Joe Manchin did his massive turnaround because he received some kind of sweetener which could include that he thinks putting won Democratic Wins on the board will help a lot in November (doh). Thankful for the extension of the ACA subsidies, that was scary. And it sure was a turnaround (for now):

Updated 3 mins ago - Politics & Policy
Manchin announces support for climate, tax, health care deal

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) announced Wednesday he planned to support a deficit reduction package that addressed both climate change and prescription drug reform, a stark reversal for the one senator who has been blocking key planks of President Biden's agenda.

Why it matters: The declaration from Manchin marks yet another about-face in a year-long negotiation over the size and scope of a Democrat-only reconciliation package.

By the numbers: The nascent deal would generate $313 billion in new revenue over ten years by increasing the corporate minimum tax to 15%, according to a one-page summary distributed by Manchin's office. It would bring in an additional $124 billion from enhanced Internal Revenue Service enforcement. And in a major blow to the private equity industry, the agreement calls for another $14 billion by treating so-called "carried interest" as regular income and taxing it at a higher rate. For the climate provisions, the proposed package would spend $369 billion, while providing another $64 billion to shore up the Affordable Care Act for three years. That would leave an additional $300 billion for deficit reduction.

Driving the news: The reversal came just hours after the Senate passed a $280 billion package to support U.S. domestic semiconductor manufacturing. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) had previously threatened to hold the CHIPS Act hostage if Democrats continued negotiating with Manchin, but that threat evaporated after Manchin opposed new climate spending earlier this month.

What they're saying: "I now propose and will vote for the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022," Manchin said in a statement. "Rather than risking more inflation with trillions in new spending, this bill will cut the inflation taxes Americans are paying, lower the cost of health insurance and prescription drugs, and ensure our country invests in the energy security and climate change solutions we need to remain a global superpower through innovation rather than elimination." President Biden said in a statement that he had spoken to Manchin and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) Wednesday afternoon and expressed support for the deal, calling it "the action the American people have been waiting for."

The other side: Republicans appeared to be livid as the news broke, with some accusing Manchin of being "deceitful" about his true intentions on reconciliation in order to release McConnell's hold on the chips bill. Some Republicans called for every member of their caucus to vote against the CHIPS Act in the House, potentially endangering another top priority for Biden that until Wednesday evening appeared to be heading for his desk.

The big picture: Two weeks ago, in response to the 9.1% Consumer Price Index release, Manchin said that he was only willing to support a bill that allowed Medicare to directly negotiate prescription drugs prices. That pronouncement effectively killed any prospects for the $300 billion in spending to address climate change that Manchin previously supported. Democrats were depressed and vented their anger at Manchin.
But privately, some Senate Democrats continued to negotiate.

https://www.axios.com/2022/07/27/manchi ... -inflation

Still three months until the midterms. Gas prices have been coming down every day for a month. If inflation has peaked and is coming down, the timing will be as ideal as it can be. Adding Wins on the board will bring it home. Let's get the word out and make sure voters have checked their registration (some states are reducing the number of years/cycles between requests for absentee ballots and other mischief) and ready.

[SuzieC]

Yes! And write Vote Forward letters and Postcard to Voters postcards. My Indivisible Central Ohio friends and I are writing hundreds of letters and postcards into Ohio, Georgia, and Kansas. Sign up to join.

[Gregg]

I'm sorry, I'll believe it when he votes for it. And we still have to get Princess Curtsey to go along with it.

[Phoenix520]

This is his MO. He works and works to forge some sort of deal and then renegs just as the vote comes up. It keeps him in the headlines. Otherwise who would even know him from Adam?

[Gregg]

When we flip 2 seats in November he can go back to hosting Rotary Club Midget Porn on his boat with the Republicans.

[Ben-Prime]

When we flip 2 seats in November he can go back to hosting Rotary Club Midget Porn on his boat with the Republicans.

You realize Rule 34 implies it probably does, in fact, exist, since you could conceive of it