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Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

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Re: Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

#251

Post by Gregg »

Dr. Ken wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:56 pm McConnell better keep his promise and resign if the Republicans don't take the senate
I think he will if Kentucky passed the bill that requires a Governor to appoint a replacement of the same party if a Senate seat becomes vacant.

And if they did I swear to Dog I'd find someone about as conservative as Bernie Sanders to say he was a Republican and then change parties about a minute after being sworn in. You, me and the dog know that Mitch would do the same thing. The whole "must be the same party" law is being or has been passed specifically because Mitch is about 899 years old and the Governor of Kentucky is a Democrat.

ETA, the law I was talking about did indeed pass and Beshear's veto was overridden. Though hew still claims it is unconstitutional so if Mitch dies he will likely appoint a Democrat and dare them to sue him. If the person he appoints is sworn in by the Senate I doubt a court would try to overrule the Senate on their sole Constitutional power to decide who is a member. That said, Mitch is unlikely to resign unless he has some indication he can stop a potential Democratic appointee from being sworn in, because until then a court probably would agree to hear the case and prevent him/her from being sworn in.
Question to the lawyers.
If Mitch resigns and Andy appoints a Democrat, where do you sue? It is a state law that says he has to appoint a person from a 3 person list supplied by the party of the person vacating the seat (unelected party officials, BTW which I have a problem with). The Governor says it violates Kentucky's Constitution but how is this not going to end up in federal Court? Also too, am I right that once a person is sworn in, no court is going to try to reverse that strictly as a matter of separation of powers?



https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kentu ... 1617137255
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Re: Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

#252

Post by SuzieC »

I assume you mean Vance. I just contributed to Mandela Barnes. His chances look good now that all his competitors have dropped out of the primary. Johnson is despicable and the stupidest man in the Senate.
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Re: Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

#253

Post by keith »

Gregg wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:04 pm

And if they did I swear to Dog I'd find someone about as conservative as Bernie Sanders to say he was a Republican and then change parties about a minute after being sworn in.
Ashley Judd?
Has everybody heard about the bird?
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Re: Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

#254

Post by Gregg »

keith wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:23 am
Gregg wrote: Thu Aug 04, 2022 7:04 pm

And if they did I swear to Dog I'd find someone about as conservative as Bernie Sanders to say he was a Republican and then change parties about a minute after being sworn in.
Ashley Judd?

A Greenup County girl! She would know where Argillite was if you asked.
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Re: Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

#255

Post by Luke »

Thank you to the 699th!


GOP slashes ads in key Senate battlegrounds
NRSC cancels over $10 million in ad buys as candidates struggle with fundraising.
By NATALIE ALLISON 08/15/2022 04:40 PM EDT

As midterm election campaigns heat up in the Senate’s top battlegrounds, the National Republican Senatorial Committee is canceling millions of dollars of ad spending, sending GOP campaigns and operatives into a panic and upending the committee’s initial spending plan. The cuts — totaling roughly $13.5 million since Aug. 1 — come as the Republicans’ Senate campaign committee is being forced to “stretch every dollar we can,” said a person familiar with the NRSC’s deliberations. Republican nominees in critical states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and North Carolina — places the GOP must defend this fall — have failed to raise enough money to get on air themselves, requiring the NRSC to make cuts elsewhere to accommodate.

Since Aug. 1, the NRSC has cut ad buys in the battleground states of Pennsylvania ($7.5 million), Arizona ($3.5 million), Wisconsin ($2.5 million) and Nevada ($1.5 million), according to the ad tracking service AdImpact. Separately, a Democratic source tracking advertising buys estimated roughly $10.5 million in cuts by the NRSC since the first of the month. “People are asking, ‘What the hell is going on?’” said one Republican strategist working on Senate races. “Why are we cutting in August? I’ve never seen it like this before.”
***
But the numbers show that the NRSC has cut significantly more than it has booked back, indicating a potential cash strain at the committee. Second-quarter filings showed the DSCC had nearly twice the cash on hand as its Republican counterpart, $53.5 million to the NRSC’s $28.5 million. Another Republican strategist referred to the recent cuts as “unreal,” noting that the NRSC had not eliminated any ad time in New Hampshire, where there won’t be a GOP nominee until mid-September — and where there’s no clear frontrunner in the meantime. The NRSC earlier this month also spent a combined $1 million on ads in Washington and Colorado, two blue states that are considered unlikely but potential pickup opportunities for Republicans.

While the GOP committee is making a perplexing number of mid-August cuts, the organization could still book back that time over the next 2½ months. And between what the NRSC has already spent on television this cycle and what it has reserved for the rest of fall, the Republican committee has still purchased significantly more than the DSCC, though Democrats will likely reserve more air time in the coming weeks.

“While Rick Scott’s failed leadership of the NRSC continues to be one of Senate Democrats’ greatest assets,” said David Bergstein, spokesperson for the DSCC, “we know McConnell’s super PAC will have significant resources in the weeks ahead and we are continuing to take nothing for granted in each of our battleground races.” Bergstein was referring to the Senate Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell that has reserved $150 million in ads this fall. Its first spots begin airing Friday in Pennsylvania.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/1 ... s-00051969
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Re: Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

#256

Post by Luke »

:dance: Looks like we're getting the benefits of T**** without him announcing.
Opinion That red wave is looking more like a ripple. Here’s why.
By Dana Milbank August 15, 2022 at 7:14 p.m. EDT

Suddenly, the 2022 midterms are looking much better for Democrats, and there’s a simple explanation: Donald Trump is back on the ballot, metaphorically speaking. In the last few days, a historical anomaly has emerged, a glitch in the electoral matrix: For the first time in the modern era, momentum has shifted toward an incumbent president’s party at this point in a midterm election year. Democrats just gained a small (0.5 percentage points) advantage over Republicans in what’s known as the “generic ballot” — when voters are asked which party’s candidate they will support for Congress. Earlier this year, Democrats had trailed by as many as 2.7 points, according to the political website FiveThirtyEight. Michael Podhorzer, the former political director for the AFL-CIO, ran the numbers and found that, going back a quarter-century, the incumbent president’s party almost always found its position deteriorating at this point. (The lone exception was 2018, when Republicans did poorly all year.)

Also, polls show Democratic voter “enthusiasm” pulling even in recent weeks with Republican levels, erasing an earlier gap. And the data are supported by anecdotal evidence: high Democratic turnout in contested primaries, a lopsided rejection of an antiabortion measure in Kansas, and Democratic candidates’ dramatic outperformance of Joe Biden’s 2020 showing in recent special elections in Minnesota and Nebraska. Let’s pause for the usual caveats here. This is just a snapshot in time, and things could change. Democrats are still likely to lose the House; their four-seat advantage is nearly impossible to defend. A GOP spending barrage is coming. But, 84 days from the election, the big red wave looks to be more of a ripple. This is because voters are receiving repeated reminders of what made them so unhappy about the Trump era.

Republican lawmakers and candidates, and their Fox News echo chamber, have again wrapped themselves around the former president with their hysterical reaction to the court-ordered search of Mar-a-Lago. Their violent talk (followed by threats and actual violence), their attacks on the rule of law (“destroy the FBI”), their conspiracy theories (the FBI planted evidence?) and their reckless defense of the indefensible (possibly pilfering nuclear secrets) are all reruns of the Trump presidency. Republican officials did much the same when faced with the damning revelations of the Jan. 6 committee. Extremist candidates — some with ties to QAnon, the Oath Keepers or the events of Jan. 6 — are dominating Republican primaries. Scores of election deniers have become GOP nominees for governor, secretaries of state and other positions. The few truth-tellers have been banished; with Tuesday’s likely defeat of Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), eight of 10 Republicans who voted to impeach Trump will be leaving Congress.

The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, enabled by three Trump appointees, has taken a fundamental right from Americans. The proliferation of extreme prohibitions since then — abortion bans without exception for rape, incest or the health of the mother — have been shocking in their cruelty. On top of these unwelcome reminders of what MAGA means, easing inflation, falling gas prices and a string of legislative successes for President Biden’s agenda — all with unemployment at a 50-year low — have blunted the GOP argument that Biden and the Democratic Congress are ineffective. Handicapper Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, noting the rising possibility that Democrats could defy historical patterns, asks: “Will this be an asterisk election?” But it’s also possible that exceptions to the historical pattern are now the rule.

Midterm elections have historically been low-turnout contests, determined by differences in partisan enthusiasm. Voters favoring the party that won the presidency tend to stay home, while voters from the opposing party are angry and motivated. (Very few voters swing from one party to the other.) For decades, turnout ranged from 37 percent to 42 percent. But the Trump era blew up the old models. In the 2018 midterms, turnout soared to 50 percent. Turnout again shattered records in 2020. And Democrats tend to win high-turnout elections because most Americans reject Trumpism. There were 3 million more votes for Hillary Clinton in 2016, 9 million more for House Democrats in 2018 and 7 million more for Biden in 2020. Now signs point to another high-turnout election. Republican voters were already fired up before the Mar-a-Lago search. Now, Democratic voters (many of whom were frustrated at the lack of accountability for Trump despite the revelations of the Jan. 6 committee) appear to be matching them in passion. Back in early February, when Democrats were in the doldrums, Podhorzer, the former AFL-CIO political director, wrote: “When voters believe that the election is ‘about’ Trump, turnout soars — but more so among his opponents than among his supporters.” That’s exactly what appears to be happening.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... ing-trump/

Today's a GREAT DAY to register a new voter, or confirm someone you know if promising to vote in November! :bighug:
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Re: Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

#257

Post by Kriselda Gray »

I hope the slash in funding means what everyone thinks it does - but maybe they're just so confident in winning they figure they don't need to spend the money there?
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Re: Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

#258

Post by bob »

Kriselda Gray wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 10:50 pm I hope the slash in funding means what everyone thinks it does - but maybe they're just so confident in winning they figure they don't need to spend the money there?
Your first take is correct: the slashed states have been trending away from the Republican candidates. The chances that the Democrats will retain the Senate is growing because it is becoming increasingly unnecessary to run the table.

Republican money is best spent in Georgia and Nevada.
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Re: Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

#259

Post by Kriselda Gray »

That would be good. I'm just pessimistic by nature.
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Re: Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

#260

Post by pipistrelle »

bob wrote: Tue Aug 16, 2022 12:03 am
Kriselda Gray wrote: Mon Aug 15, 2022 10:50 pm I hope the slash in funding means what everyone thinks it does - but maybe they're just so confident in winning they figure they don't need to spend the money there?
Your first take is correct: the slashed states have been trending away from the Republican candidates. The chances that the Democrats will retain the Senate is growing because it is becoming increasingly unnecessary to run the table.

Republican money is best spent in Georgia and Nevada.
Which is sad because it should be no contest in Georgia.
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Re: Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

#261

Post by Luke »

MSNBC Opinion piece -- it's a great piece to send along to friends to encourage them to register or commit to vote :P Still confident Democrats are going to win again! :bighug:
How Democrats could actually come out on top in the midterms
For all its faults, the party really has evolved over the past decade.
Democrats just might be able to save their majorities in Congress, if they hustle.
Aug. 15, 2022, 6:51 AM EDT By Ryan Cooper, MSNBC Opinion Columnist

For most of 2022, Democrats have been sinking ever deeper into a pit of despair. President Joe Biden’s approval ratings (driven by the worst inflation in 40 years), were approaching those of the late Bush administration. The party’s agenda was apparently dead in the Senate, and Republican gerrymandering had given the GOP a substantial handicap in House elections. Election nerds took it for granted that Democrats would lose the House and probably the Senate too, along with control of vital swing-state governments, in November. But in just a few weeks, things have taken a sharp turn for the better for the party. Democratic senators pushed through the Inflation Reduction Act — a large climate and health care bill that proves the party isn’t completely incapable of governing. Inflation appears to be moderating somewhat. And Republican extremism has produced weak conservative candidates in several states and, thanks to the right-wing majority Supreme Court’s decision to strike down Roe v. Wade, toxic opposition. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump appears to be in deep legal trouble. Last week, the FBI executed a search warrant at his Mar-a-Lago estate and reclaimed numerous boxes of documents. The entire conservative movement responded with purple-faced outrage, threatening retaliation against Attorney General Merrick Garland, the FBI and anyone else it could think of. One right-wing terrorist mounted an attack on an FBI office, which ended in his death. But then on Friday, the warrant was released, and everyone learned Trump is under investigation for allegedly violating the Espionage Act.

Democrats just might be able to save their majorities in Congress, if they hustle. Let me begin with the Inflation Reduction Act. This bill is far from perfect, thanks to the many compromises with fossil fuel interests demanded by Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va. But as analysts at Evergreen Action explain, on net it is a very significant attack on climate change, and sets the stage for promising climate activism in the future. It’s a huge deal. It isn’t the only large bill Democrats have gotten through this Congress. There’s also a substantial semiconductor subsidy package, a measure to improve health care for veterans afflicted with chronic illnesses, the infrastructure bill that passed last year, and, of course, the massive American Rescue Plan passed in March of last year. Now, the American Rescue Plan may have increased inflation somewhat, but it also gave the United States the lowest unemployment rate in half a century and by far the largest number of new jobs in American history over a two-year period. Overall it’s arguably the most significant set of domestic accomplishments for a Democratic president since Lyndon Johnson.

It’s worth emphasizing how remarkable this is. Taken together, Biden’s Democrats, with literally zero margin for error in the Senate, have gotten policies through that are far more significant than the party got under President Barack Obama with 59 senators. For all its faults, the party really has evolved over the past decade. Republicans definitely did not want to make the election turn around the former president when there is inflation to complain about. Aside from having a record of accomplishment to boast about in midterm campaigns, the fact of serious accomplishment puts wind into Democratic sails. It looked as though the party would have no argument in its own favor aside from being able to keep out Republicans. But now it can promise future efforts, should the party remain in control of Congress. On inflation, it seems increasingly likely that upcoming inflation figures will be cooler. As I previously argued, the prices of key commodities have been falling for months, and broader indicators do not indicate anything like a wage-price spiral. Sure enough, the month-to-month inflation data came in flat in July, and measures of inflation expectations are falling rapidly. Yes, we will surely still be seeing unusual price rises for the rest of 2022 relative to the pre-pandemic normal, but they’ll probably be more like Reagan-era jumps than Carter-era bounds.

Finally, there is Republican extremism. In several critical states and districts the GOP has nominated comically deranged candidates who are well outside the American mainstream. In Pennsylvania, for instance, Republicans nominated quack medicine charlatan Mehmet Oz for Senate, and for governor they have nominated Doug Mastriano, a state senator who organized buses for numerous Jan. 6 putschists and attended the riot himself. In Arizona, Republicans nominated former television anchor and election denier Kari Lake for governor, who, true to form, announced that she had won the primary even before the votes had been counted, by her own admission. But these candidates’ announced plans to overturn democracy are possibly less of an election liability than their stances on abortion. Oz, reversing years of previous statements, has not protested the demise of Roe. Mastriano has long been a fanatical advocate of a near-total ban on abortion. Lake describes herself as “unequivocally pro-life.” In Michigan, the Republican attorney general nominee favors banning abortion even when the life of the mother is at stake. Across the country, Republican states are passing long-planned abortion bans that have created a stream of stories of pre-teen rape victims; women with wanted pregnancies that pose such dangerous complications that they're forced to flee to other states to get the care they need; women almost dying because hospitals fear to help them; and even a teenager being prosecuted for getting an abortion.

This is turning out to be electoral poison. Banning abortion with no exceptions for rape and incest reliably receives 15%-20% support in polls. In Kansas, an anti-abortion ballot initiative recently lost by 18 percentage points. Americans do not want to live in an anti-abortion dystopia. Trump’s unprecedented legal problems are a nice cherry on top of the Democrats’ cake. Republicans definitely did not want to make the election center on the former president when there is inflation to complain about. Now their abject dedication to the most corrupt and lawless president in American history is laid bare. If conservatives have anything to do with it, Trump will be back in power come 2025, ready to carry out God only knows what. That’s a powerful argument in Democrats’ favor.

Now, Democrats would be fools to assume they will win by default. History and electoral common sense suggests that Republicans are still the favorites in the midterms. But the combination of solid achievement and loony extremist opponents is a powerful one. Biden’s poll numbers are improving, and the generic congressional ballot looks even better. If they put up a strong effort this fall, Democrats have a solid shot at remaining in control of Congress and the presidency
https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opi ... s-n1297901
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Re: Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

#262

Post by Luke »

Relentlessly optimistic! :P #Midterms2022 While MAGA wallows in fear, hate, & grievance, keeps talking down America & rooting for America's failure, time for Democrats to tune them out & focus on Indy voters to #VOTE to keep Congress with a bigger majority to keep America moving FORWARD. #YesWeCanAgain! 🇺🇸

Please feel free to share these tweets or create your own and let me know -- I'd be happy to share them on my Twitter @orly_licious. Let's get the troops motivated and kick off September after Labor Day ready to crush these MAGA losers!
OrlyLicious 🇺🇸 @Orly_licious 1m
#YesWeCanAgain! 🥳 82 days until #Midterms2022! 538 predicts 62% odds that Democrats will KEEP THE SENATE. Register voters, get friends & family to commit to #VOTE & please share the major accomplishments to help all Americans that President Biden, the House & Senate passed! 🇺🇸








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And, of course, America's Secret Weapon to crush these MAGA losers: (WARNING: Dangerous and potentially panic-inducing content)


► Show Spoiler
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Re: Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

#263

Post by Dr. Ken »

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Re: Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

#264

Post by Resume18 »

I love the optimism in this thread; I don't buy into it myself, but a person can hope!
Like as the waves make towards the pebbled shore,
So do our minutes hasten to their end . . .
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Re: Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

#265

Post by Dr. Ken »

Feels like 2010 all over again. GOP are fielding the most radical candidates
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Re: Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

#266

Post by Phoenix520 »

Unless, of course, the mama hates her baby and tries to drown it in the kitchen sink.

I really hate these rigid, unfeeling people.
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Re: Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

#267

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer »

I agree. They know nothing about the physical effects of pregnancy and post pregnancy. All they think about is "saving babies". Grown-up babies are NOT included.
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Re: Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

#268

Post by Phoenix520 »

:yeahthat:
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Re: Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

#269

Post by Suranis »

Tiredretiredlawyer wrote: Sat Aug 20, 2022 12:26 pm I agree. They know nothing about the physical effects of pregnancy and post pregnancy. All they think about is "saving babies". Grown-up babies are NOT included.
Uh, have to step in on this one. Considering the amount of pig ignorant posts I've seen on facebook from so called Pro-choice people, total ignorance about the effects and development of Pregnancy is NOT a Unique aspect of the right. Except people on the left are even more stubborn

Hell, several years back I had to forcefully tell people on this forum, with much pushback, that Pregnancy is counted from the time of the last period (or 2 weeks before implantation in the case of irregular periods.) Its only on every medical textbook on the freaking planet. Yes The Womans body goes though changes to prepare for pregnancy during those 2 weeks, so they count.

So yes, a doctor counting pregnancy from implantation WAS changing the definition of Pregnancy so he could get more customers. And this was in a sea of social media going "Ha ha they think you are pregnant before you have even had Sex." :bored:
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Re: Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

#270

Post by Luke »

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Even Tucker is PANICKING. Is the GOP turning into the party of bedwetters? :lol:
Tucker Carlson: The Red Wave Is Not Guaranteed, The Numbers Don't Show It Despite Biden's Well-Earned Unpopularity
Posted By Tyler Stone On Date August 19, 2022

Tucker Carlson's opening monologue on August 18, 2022:

TUCKER CARLSON:
***
Unpopular presidents drag their parties to the bottom in midterm elections. That's the unchanging rule of politics. You saw it famously in 1994 with the Republican takeover of Congress after two disastrous years of Bill Clinton. You saw it in 2006 after Hurricane Katrina. You saw it in 2010 after ObamaCare. You saw it in 2018.

So, there's no question based on precedent that that's about to happen once again in 2022, in November. That's what everybody assumes and in fact, it may well happen. We're certainly praying for it, but as of tonight, we have to be honest with you, the numbers don't show that happening. Not even close. In fact, all the indications we have right now suggest that despite Joe Biden's well-earned unpopularity, the Democratic Party still, again, as of tonight, has a strong chance of holding Congress in November.

The prediction markets, which many believe are more accurate than the polls, overwhelmingly point to the Democrats keeping at least one chamber and maybe strangest of all, as of this week, Democrats are leading Republicans nationally in the so-called generic ballot by about four points. So, if you ask people, "Which party do you like more?" they say Democrats. And maybe that's why Democrats are raising a lot more money, too and not just money from their patrons in big tech, but from small-dollar donors. That's bad.

In June, Democrats raised $64 million online from 4 million people. That same month, this June, Republicans raised only $26 million online from just over a million donors. From the first quarter to the second quarter of this year, donations to the Republican Party dropped by more than 12%. By contrast, donations to the Democratic Party are up more than 20%. That is not good at all, not simply because you need money to run a political campaign, but because money is, to some extent, a measure of commitment and intensity and you see the same dynamic playing out in individual races across the country.

For example, last quarter, Raphael Warnock, that would be the thoroughly mediocre Democratic senator from Georgia, the guy who was caught on video appearing to commit spousal abuse (Remember that?) that guy raised more than $12 million online. His opponent, Herschel Walker, who everyone likes, raised less than half of that. So far, Raphael Warnock has raised an astounding amount of money. He's hauled in more dollars online than seven Republican senatorial candidates combined: Candidates in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, Wisconsin and Georgia combined. Herschel Walker is now trailing Raphael Warnock by ten points and this is happening in a state they tell us went for Joe Biden by a margin of about one-third of a percentage point. That is bizarre. What is going on here? It's not just happening in Georgia.
Full transcript & video at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video ... arity.html

More relevant for President Joe Biden are the midterm elections that took place during President Bill Clinton's second term. Despite Clinton facing impeachment, Democrats picked up five seats in the House in 1998. At a moment when it seemed that Clinton was as weak as could be, some Democrats focused on the extremism of the GOP, painting Speaker Newt Gingrich and his allies as extreme partisans more interested in investigation and scandal than governing. The strategy worked. Though Republicans retained control of Congress, Democrats dealt a blow to the GOP in the House, contributing in large part to the Republican caucus' decision to pressure Gingrich to step down.

There might be a similar dynamic in 2022. The Trump-endorsed candidates are already causing problems for a Republican Party that might have previously thought they would glide into congressional power. Several Republican candidates in key Senate races have made unforced errors, giving Democrats unexpected opportunities in states like Pennsylvania. The specter of the January 6 committee and the ongoing shock and awe from the multiple investigations dogging the former president might influence enough pockets of independent voters in decisive states. In the next few months, Democrats might be able to soften the blows or even retain power in the Senate if they are able to frame this election as the choice between a party that governs and a radicalized party primarily interested in burning down the house.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/19/opinions ... ms-zelizer


Democrats know how to look at calendars. Obviously, bad news should be front-loaded, or, say, released while everybody is away for the Summer. Then in September and October, good things happen. It's always been like this. So now we're starting to see improvements in gas prices, inflation and the other GOP talking points. The GOP is also helping with "candidate quality" and extremely unpopular decisions like Dobbs.

Democrats are going to win again. Let's keep registering voters, checking in with friends and family to make sure they're planning to vote, and supporting our candidates on social media. :bighug:
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Re: Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

#271

Post by Dr. Ken »

Lol hold up. He references Warnock supposedly being caught on video committing spousal abuse and then goes on to say herschal walker who everybody likes. Those two statements don't gel.
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Re: Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

#272

Post by Luke »

Thanks (again :P ) to Chancery, turned on CNN to see Michael Cohen. Then, Larry Sabato was on talking about how the MAGA party is blowing it. Larry looks like Mike Lindell, that's what the joke in the tweet is about :P This pic is of a young Larry, he just turned 70 so you can wish him Happy Birfday if you'd like. Larry runs Sabato's Crystal Ball for the UVA Center for Politics https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/. Larry's Twitter is https://twitter.com/LarrySabato/. Spooky, right? :lol:

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OrlyLicious 🇺🇸 @Orly_licious 15m

Larry, awesome interview with Jim Acosta! Glad you broke away from the #MomentOfTruth all-you-can-eat-buffet. 🥳 You're right as always, it's "Team Crazy" in AZ & we're watching Oz, Walker, maybe Johnson implode. Took the "Democrats Win #Midterms" bet all along, here's hoping! 🇺🇸

Larry Sabato @LarrySabato Replying to @Orly_licious and @VegasPodcaster

Thanks—we’ll see but in mid-August it sure looks like the GOP threw away several Senate seats.
:thumbsup: :thumbsup:


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Re: Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

#273

Post by Luke »

As Realist might eloquently say: :dance:

Still confident :P and thanks to everyone for letting us have a positive, uplifting topic about good news about Democrats for the Midterms. We can do this! :boxing:
Democrats gain momentum: 5 takeaways from the last big primary night of 2022
Trump’s candidates are still chalking up wins, but the headwinds facing Democrats appear to have eased.
By DAVID SIDERS, GARY FINEOUT and MATT DIXON 08/24/2022 01:06 AM EDT

A New York special election seen as the last, best test of the electorate’s midterm leanings confirmed what Democrats hoped and Republicans feared: Predictions of a red wave may be overblown. Tuesday marked the last of the year’s major, multi-state contests, leaving the shape of the general election landscape all but complete. Here are five takeaways from a key primary night in Florida and New York:

New York’s ‘canary in a coal mine’
It would have been easy to write Nebraska off as a fluke, after Democrats ran better than expected in a House race there last month. But then came Minnesota, where Democrats again beat expectations. And then, in New York on Tuesday, the dam broke. “Well, shit,” one Republican strategist texted late Tuesday, as results from a Hudson Valley special election filtered in. It would have been a victory for Democrats if they’d even kept it close. Instead, Democrat Pat Ryan beat Republican Marc Molinaro in a district that Joe Biden narrowly won in 2020, but that would have appeared to favor Republicans in a normal midterm climate.

Overall, on the last major primary night of the year, the winds appeared to be shifting in Democrats’ favor. It can be tempting to read too much into special elections. They’re not always predictive of results in the fall, and Republicans this year have overperformed in some places, too. In June, the GOP won a South Texas House seat that had been held by a Democrat. But that was before Roe shook the political landscape. Ever since, it’s been nothing but one sign after another that Democrats — while still widely expected to lose the House in November — might not be in for the all-out drubbing once predicted.

The New York race to succeed Democrat Antonio Delgado in a New York House district is likely a better indicator than the House races in Minnesota or Nebraska. For one thing, it’s the most current data we have. But more than that, it’s a competitive district where both parties spent real money and tested their general election messaging — abortion for Democrats, the economy for Republicans. It was about as close to a November test run as we’re going to get. “This is a Republican versus a Democrat. They’re not crazy. No one’s off the wall,” said Hank Sheinkopf, a longtime Democratic strategist based in New York. “That’s why it’s a good test.” Democrats passed and then some.

“If Pat Ryan out-and-out wins, or even comes within 5 points of beating Molinaro, all projections of a red wave are completely overblown,” said New York-based Democratic strategist Jon Reinish, a former aide to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.). “This race is really a canary in a coal mine.”
More: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/2 ... n-00053445

More about why this race was important: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/1 ... n-00052830
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Re: Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

#274

Post by Foggy »

:like:

Orlylicious, I love your relentless optimism. 'Course, that canary in a coal mine thing is for the GOP. Remember, the canary DIES in the coal mine, and that's the signal that the air is no good. In the analogy, Molinaro was the canary, he died, and the GOP better pay attention. (Narrator: He didn't really die.)

Yeah, because of Dobbs, the Dems might do well this year.

But when it's over, Dobbs will still be there. :mad2:
Out from under. :thumbsup:
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Re: Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

#275

Post by Slim Cognito »

Foggy wrote: Wed Aug 24, 2022 7:23 am :like:

...

Yeah, because of Dobbs, the Dems might do well this year.

But when it's over, Dobbs will still be there. :mad2:
Yep, we're fucked. It's just a matter of whether we're proper fucked.
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