Man-Made Disasters

[Slim Cognito]

► Show Spoiler

Hubs just found a video on Youtube by a guy named Jeff Ostroff. He's analyzing publicly available videos of the Surfside collapse. I didn't catch his bona fides but he seems to know a thing or two about construction and, as he analyzes these videos trying to determine the initial point of failure, he prefaces everything with, "I think" and "it's my educated guess but I could be wrong."

He starts with a video taken a year ago by a woman who was considering purchasing a unit in the building but, I'm guessing, was scared away by what she saw in the parking garage, pooling water, huge cracks, peeling paint, lame-ass patch jobs, fucking stalactites, people putting covers on their cars in a covered garage, cones everywhere... And these are million dollar plus condos with a gorgeous view of the beach.

He then moves on to a shorter video, about 33 minutes in, taken in 2018 by a resident who was concerned by an electrical box covered in rust with rust stains running down the walls and a big pipe directly above covered with mastic.

There is a short clip about 27 minutes in taken by a tourist staying across the street. About seven minutes before the collapse, she looked out her window and could see a pipe just above the about-to-collapse building's garage entrance ramp. The pipe had burst and water was pouring into the garage. I'm going to see if I can find out more about that video.

The whole video is about 40 minutes long but my jaw dropped more than once or twelve.

[RTH10260]

Hubs just found a guy on Youtube named Jeff Ostroff analyzing publicly available videos on the Surfside condo collapse.

► Show Spoiler

Not sure what his creds are but he seems to know something about construction. He's not telling you FOR SURE, THIS IS THE REASON, it fell, but he's analyzing videos that people took pre-collapse to document problems that needed to be fixed. He is trying to pinpoint the initial point of failure, but he prefaces everything with, "I believe" or "it's my educated guess and I may be wrong." This link is mostly about a year old video, taken by a woman who was considering purchasing a unit but, I'm guessing, was scared away by what she saw in the parking garage. Very interesting. Also horrifying.

Ostroff's video is about 40 minutes long, but jaw-dropping. There were freaking STALAGTITES growing down from the ceiling. People had car covers on their cars parked in a covered garage. There were huge cracks, peeling paint, orange cones, pooling water. A second, shorter video from 2018 (starts about 33 minutes in, videoed to present to the HOA) shows an electrical box covered in rust from the water dripping overhead off a big pipe covered in mastic.

(shudders)



About 27 minutes into the video, he shows a very short clip of another video taken by a tourist across the street seven minutes before the collapse, I think he said a few hours before the collapse

There are many self-claimed eperts making "analysis" based on pictures of the wrekage and based on publically available documents. The are all giving opinons based on limited available information. Few have any sound building experience. Wait until the official investigation is completed.

[zekeb]

I'd like to hear from the occupants. Were they hearing any unusual sounds? Any popping or cracking sounds? Maybe they were and it happened so often that they tuned them out. It's possible that one main support gave in all at once, but I'd think there would have been other audible sounds in the weeks and months prior.

[neonzx]

There is a short clip about 27 minutes in taken by a tourist staying across the street. About seven minutes before the collapse, she looked out her window and could see a pipe just above the about-to-collapse building's garage entrance ramp. The pipe had burst and water was pouring into the garage. I'm going to see if I can find out more about that video.

I saw that clip a while back. I also recall a report of a resident, on the phone with spouse? who was not home. She was standing on the patio and told him the pool was empty (minutes before the collapse -- she did not survive). I wonder if the gushing water into the parking garage was related to the pool draining.

[Slim Cognito]

A woman saw/heard the pool deck collapse and reported it, then retrieved her daughter just in the nick of time. Luckily, they lived on the ground floor. They survived, running for their lives.

[Slim Cognito]

Hubs just found a guy on Youtube named Jeff Ostroff analyzing publicly available videos on the Surfside condo collapse.

► Show Spoiler

Not sure what his creds are but he seems to know something about construction. He's not telling you FOR SURE, THIS IS THE REASON, it fell, but he's analyzing videos that people took pre-collapse to document problems that needed to be fixed. He is trying to pinpoint the initial point of failure, but he prefaces everything with, "I believe" or "it's my educated guess and I may be wrong." This link is mostly about a year old video, taken by a woman who was considering purchasing a unit but, I'm guessing, was scared away by what she saw in the parking garage. Very interesting. Also horrifying.

Ostroff's video is about 40 minutes long, but jaw-dropping. There were freaking STALAGTITES growing down from the ceiling. People had car covers on their cars parked in a covered garage. There were huge cracks, peeling paint, orange cones, pooling water. A second, shorter video from 2018 (starts about 33 minutes in, videoed to present to the HOA) shows an electrical box covered in rust from the water dripping overhead off a big pipe covered in mastic.

(shudders)



About 27 minutes into the video, he shows a very short clip of another video taken by a tourist across the street seven minutes before the collapse, I think he said a few hours before the collapse

There are many self-claimed eperts making "analysis" based on pictures of the wrekage and based on publically available documents. The are all giving opinons based on limited available information. Few have any sound building experience. Wait until the official investigation is completed.

I don't think he's trying to claim FIRST on any eventual findings. He often reminds us these are his opinions and he could be wrong. I think he's narrating the videos with the benefit of his experience. It's the pre-collapse damage seen on the two videos that is so appalling.

[Maybenaut]

I'd like to hear from the occupants. Were they hearing any unusual sounds? Any popping or cracking sounds? Maybe they were and it happened so often that they tuned them out. It's possible that one main support gave in all at once, but I'd think there would have been other audible sounds in the weeks and months prior.

Their lawyers are probably telling them not to speak publicly about what they saw and heard.

[RTH10260]

From one of the YT "experts": I undertand he is builder or architect. Anyhow he claimed after looking at the pictures of the remaining standing building parts, especially at the floor levels and based on how the rebar was showing twisted and hanging, that in his opinon there may have been errors made during original building: either the design was flawed and the rebar underdimensioned, or during construction shortcuts were taken and not as much rebar laid as apecified.

[northland10]

I'd like to hear from the occupants. Were they hearing any unusual sounds? Any popping or cracking sounds? Maybe they were and it happened so often that they tuned them out. It's possible that one main support gave in all at once, but I'd think there would have been other audible sounds in the weeks and months prior.

Their lawyers are probably telling them not to speak publicly about what they saw and heard.

If they are good lawyers they are. Those like Powell, Wood, Klayman, and other glory seekers would be running to the mic.

[Frater I*I]

I'd like to hear from the occupants. Were they hearing any unusual sounds? Any popping or cracking sounds? Maybe they were and it happened so often that they tuned them out. It's possible that one main support gave in all at once, but I'd think there would have been other audible sounds in the weeks and months prior.

Their lawyers are probably telling them not to speak publicly about what they saw and heard.

If they are good lawyers they are. Those like Powell, Wood, Klayman, and other glory seekers would be running to the mic.

How could you forget to name Oily at the top of that list!?!?!??!

[northland10]

As a grifter, Orly is really low on the list. After she lost her raison d'etre she became nothing. A good lawyer grifter knows how to look for more marks and change focus to keep the grift alive.

[Frater I*I]

As a grifter, Orly is really low on the list. After she lost her raison d'etre she became nothing. A good lawyer grifter knows how to look for more marks and change focus to keep the grift alive.

Touche sir, touche...

[RVInit]

A woman saw/heard the pool deck collapse and reported it, then retrieved her daughter just in the nick of time. Luckily, they lived on the ground floor. They survived, running for their lives.

The interesting thing is that Jeff Ostroff's video he is identifying the columns that are in that area where the pool deck is as being the ones he suspects had failed first. I'm taking his videos with an appropriate amount of skepticism, he may be way off track, but they are still interesting to watch, he seems to be making a real effort to match up the videos with maps, and also with what the pool deck looked like after the collapse.

The woman who saw the pool deck section collapse and got herself and child out - wow, good for her! I'm heartsick for the people who were still in bed sleeping. Or even awake and walking around in their pajamas with a cup of coffee and yawning trying to get themselves awake for the new day.

[neonzx]

I think we just need to wait. Many people want answers that aren't coming fast enough, especially the families impacted. They (the professionals) will figure this out. It may take months, but we will eventually get a detailed explanation of the how/why, including computer generated recreations of the cascading failures.

[Slim Cognito]

That was my takeaway. The narrator makes it clear these are educated guesses, he knows he may be wrong, but the damage in those pre collapse videos is jaw dropping. And that electrical box….

[Slim Cognito]

I think we just need to wait. Many people want answers that aren't coming fast enough, especially the families impacted. They (the professionals) will figure this out. It may take months, but we will eventually get a detailed explanation of the how/why, including computer generated recreations of the cascading failures.

Of course we will wait for the answers but I don’t see why the videos should be off limits. It’s not a contest. It’s not like he’s trying to overturn a final report. And will the families really care if it was pillar 45 that gave out first vs pillar 71? We already know someone fucked up big time. My impression as I watched was never, “Boy, this guy is absolutely right about this pillar or that.” I was dumbstruck the damage was allowed to progress to the level visible on the videos he was narrating.

[neonzx]

I think we just need to wait. Many people want answers that aren't coming fast enough, especially the families impacted. They (the professionals) will figure this out. It may take months, but we will eventually get a detailed explanation of the how/why, including computer generated recreations of the cascading failures.

Of course we will wait for the answers but I don’t see why the videos should be off limits. It’s not a contest.

Sure, that's all fine and good... and those with some knowledge/expertise tossing their thoughts in the ring w/ appropriate disclaimer, is fair.

[chancery]

Have there been any discussions of comparable building collapses from other countries? Surely there are innumerable 12-story apartment buildings around the world that were built with shoddy materials and subjected to poor maintenance. Do they ever collapse?

[Suranis]

I did a quick search and this has 10 big ones.

https://www.bestonlineengineeringdegree ... n-history/

The thing is, it really would depend on the local inspection regime. Are these things caught before the collapse actually happens? That is a big factor. The thing is this was just so sudden it caught people unawares before they had a chance to flee.

[zekeb]

Have there been any discussions of comparable building collapses from other countries? Surely there are innumerable 12-story apartment buildings around the world that were built with shoddy materials and subjected to poor maintenance. Do they ever collapse?

The Ivory Tower main administrative building of my employer had engineering defects that were exacerbated by concrete that wasn't quite up to specification. This was a case of the occupants hearing unusual noises as the building began to fall apart. They managed to catch it in time and beef up the supporting beams. I suspect that in the Florida case it was a matter of poor construction and a poor footing.

[neonzx]

Have there been any discussions of comparable building collapses from other countries? Surely there are innumerable 12-story apartment buildings around the world that were built with shoddy materials and subjected to poor maintenance. Do they ever collapse?

Several nations have sent experts to investigate this. It is going to, in-the-end, be deemed shoddy maintenance and the condo owners unwilling to foot the tab. It was built wrong.

My humble opinion.

ETA: Binx is the bomb!!

[neonzx]

Have there been any discussions of comparable building collapses from other countries? Surely there are innumerable 12-story apartment buildings around the world that were built with shoddy materials and subjected to poor maintenance. Do they ever collapse?

It's not supposed to happen here. Granted, we have had structural failures like bridges ... but not residential housing. Not like this.

[chancery]

Thanks Suranis, that's interesting.

Obviously this was just an informal selection rather than a study. However, for what it's worth, I note that a number of the collapses were due to external forces (landslides, flooding, explosions, airplane impacts), construction accidents, or grotesque design errors (adding extra stories, failing to account for dead weight). None of the collapses seems to have been due to bad maintenance.

[Suranis]

Thanks Suranis, that's interesting.

Obviously this was just an informal selection rather than a study. However, for what it's worth, I note that a number of the collapses were due to external forces (landslides, flooding, explosions, airplane impacts), construction accidents, or grotesque design errors (adding extra stories, failing to account for dead weight). None of the collapses seems to have been due to bad maintenance.

I found this actual example in India from 2016

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/cit ... 396521.cms

HYDERABAD: Poor structural design, a water sump running deep ..

Read more at:

Another indian site suggests that this type of thing is quite common.

https://gharpedia.com/blog/collapse-bui ... -drawings/

The collapse of building i.e. structure failure associated with the structural design, drawings has become a major issue in many parts of the world. It has almost become a regular incident where the residential and commercial structures fail like a pack of cards. Some buildings collapse during the construction itself while many buildings collapse while being occupied even after years. It results in loss of human lives and properties worth billions.
Building Collapse

Design actually starts with choice of materials, arrangement and configuration of structural elements and their sizes. They must be so done, so that the load is easily transferred to ground without any deflection/defect.
Also Read: Why Should I Hire a Structural Engineer?

Here we discuss the collapse of building in details.
Building Collapse due to Defects in Structural Design and Faulty Drawing for Construction:

Sometimes the defects in the building are a result of the incomplete, inaccurate and poorly coordinated design. The design of the structure is very crucial to the building, which affects the basic stability and life of the structure. The sound design is vital for the better performance and low maintenance of the building.

It is observed that half of the sudden building collapse happens because of structural design errors. Improper design decisions will lower the construction quality and results in defects during the life span of the building. Hence defect in design is a major reason for collapse of the building.

There are many reasons for the failure and collapse of building either partially or total. One of them is collapse due to defective design and drawings.

Following are the mistakes done by the professional structural engineers while designing the RCC or load bearing structure:

01. Errors in defining vertical as well as horizontal load path i.e. unengineered load path.

02. Violation of basic codal provision like minimum size of structural elements or minimum % of reinforcement, or minimum size of diameter of bar, i.e. minimum width of column should be 300 mm, minimum percentage of steel in column should be 0.8% and minimum diameter of bar in column to be 12mm and so on.

03. Wrong assumption of building geometry, its behaviour, as well as horizontal and vertical joints.
Also Read: Joints in Construction: All You Need to Know

04. Incorrect understanding of architectural drawings.

05. Wrong consideration of loads and safety factor.
Also Read: Which Load Combinations are to be Considered While Structural Designing of a House?

06. Wrong calculation of loading.

07. Wrong assumption in the support conditions.

08. The incorrect assumption of exposure like earthquake, wind and fire criteria.
Also Read: Seismic Zones of India: All you Need to Know and What is a Wind Load?

09. Designing the structure without soil investigations i.e. say loads bearing capacity of soil.

10. Incomplete details in the structural drawings.

11. Frequent change in design by the owner/client/architect without respecting structure design.

12. Ignorance of construction site buildability criteria and maintenance criteria.

13. Discrepancy between assumption in design and actual execution on site i.e you assume a fixed joint in design, but on site you give such details that it behaves like a hinged joint.

14. Not providing expansion joint where needed for thermal and seismic criteria.

15. Wrong detailing i.e. not to show top bars in cantilever beams.

Nowadays, in major buildings, the owners get the structural design and drawings proof checked by independent authority for avoiding the structural design errors. It will help to improve the stability of the building.

Following are the typical reasons or mistakes in drawings which leads to structure failure:

01. Structural and architectural drawings do not match with each other due to poor communication between the architect and structural engineer.

02. Printing mistakes or to forget to mark the dimensions in the drawing will lead to poor quality of construction.

03. Providing incorrect line and levels.

04. Frequent changes in design or drawing by owner/architect also lead to the mistake in a drawing and ultimately it will increase the probability of structure failure.

05. The site engineer makes mistake while reading the drawing because of the poor scale of drawing or lack of basic understanding of civil engineering.

06. Revised drawings are not used at the time of construction also leads to errors in construction. i.e. old drawings are used, inspite of change/revisions.

In conclusion, buildings collapse or failure happens due to the poor and inadequate structural design and/or faulty construction drawing. This all lead to frequent repairing and maintenance resulting in high life cycle cost to the owner.

Hence employ right experienced and licensed structural engineer and give him adequate time to design and prepare drawings and also pay him for his knowledge and time, as few thousand rupee may endanger your entire life. If structural engineer is hired by your architect, see that he employs competent person and pays him adequately.

[chancery]

Thanks, those are interesting too, but again your examples involve design failures rather than poor maintenance..

What I'm imperfectly groping for is something like this. Many of the experts quoted have noted (preliminarily, of course) that, while the evidence of decay at Surfside was disturbing, they would not have considered it a strong warning of imminent collapse. One of the reasons that the Surfside collapse is so frightening is that it could be an indication that concrete apartment buildings in general have less resilience, less tolerance for poor maintenance, and thus a shorter lifespan than was thought. Visions of waves of such collapses in the coming decades.

If so, one would think that it would be a world-wide problem, especially since building regulation in Miami, for all its flaws, is likely not the worst in the world, and indeed has some strong points. The absence in the coverage of the Surfside collapse of discussion any trend of comparable disasters ..., well, it could be simply yet another example of the extent to which the U.S. press ignores the rest of the world. Or that performing such a study is hard and can't be done quickly. And obviously it's far from clear what a comparable collapse might be at this early stage in the investigation. So maybe it doesn't indicate anything important.

I'm mostly grasping at straws for some handle to understand what happened.