Coronavirus One Year, And More, Later

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AndyinPA
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Coronavirus One Year, And More, Later

#1

Post by AndyinPA »

https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... rus-deaths
President Biden on Monday will order flags on federal land be lowered to half-staff for the next five days to mark the United States surpassing 500,000 deaths from the coronavirus pandemic.

Biden will also deliver remarks at a candle-lighting ceremony later Monday and hold a moment of silence.

"Tonight’s events, including the president’s remarks, will highlight the magnitude of loss this milestone marks for the American people and so many families across the country," White House press secretary Jen Psaki said at a briefing. "He will also speak to the power of the American people to turn the tide on this pandemic by working together, following public health guidelines and getting vaccinated as soon as they are eligible."
:(


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sterngard friegen
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Re: Corona Virus One Year Later

#2

Post by sterngard friegen »

This was sent to me this morning by a friend and neighbor (and fellow car nut) who used to work for RAND Corporation and was in high demand as an analyst and statistician by the CIA:
The big news now is that the steep roll-off in cases that the US is experiencing may be due to our population approaching herd immunity. I’ve done a simple calculation that illustrates why this might be true.

What do we know? Well, we know that about 500k out of the US population of about 330M have died of the virus. We also know that the infection death rate (IDR) from covid is about .27%. This number is highly variable over the entire population, e.g, among 80+ yr olds in retirement homes it’s greater than 10%, while the kiddies have a vanishingly small IDR, but published results have suggested that .27% for the overall IDR.

Now, IDR=(#deaths)/(#infected), so, for the US, IDRx(# infected)=500x10**3.

Thus, #infected=(500/2.7)x10**6=185M. Note that this result estimates the total number of infected as 185M, far higher than the 28M estimated total cases in the US. The point is that the 28M is a very low estimate when you weigh it against the total number of deaths in the US as I have just done.

Well, if there are 185M folks who have been infected out of a population of 330M, then about 56% of the US population has been infected, and possess immunity, at least for the near term. Add another 10% for vaccine-induced immunity—a number that is increasing daily--then you can see why we may have reached R naught less than one which would explain the steep drop-off in cases we’re now experiencing throughout the US.

Obviously many things could still go wrong, e.g, immunity, natural or otherwise, could turn out to not be durable, or a nasty variant could prove deadly for those previously infected, or vaccinated, or both. But if the steep decline outraces those contingencies (I’m betting it will) we may have this thing under control, for the most part, by this summer.


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Re: Coronavirus One Year Later

#3

Post by Uninformed »

A bit confused by the figures used. As far as I know the IFR/IDR of .27% is a median rate based on multi-national statistics. The figures bandied about for “high income nations” are generally above around 1% or above. According to Worldometers current figures for known infections and resulting fatalities are 28,816,939 and 512,397, that give a 1.78% death rate.


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Re: Coronavirus One Year Later

#4

Post by AndyinPA »

Long read:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... rc404=true
Elsewhere in the United States, the death toll passed 200,000. But up at the north end of Washington Street, the nurses at Marshall Browning Hospital, a 25-bed “critical access” facility, were beginning to exhale because there had been so few signs of the illness since a brief flurry in the spring.

“We had a really long grace period,” said Amy Blakemore, the medical-surgical nurse manager at the hospital. “I’m going to attribute it to sheer dumb luck that we kept our numbers as low as we did as long as we did.”

Du Quoin’s experience with covid-19 this past fall was typical of hundreds of small towns across the United States. Alarm when the pandemic began gave way to a mixture of complacency, denial and resistance to public health measures as the disease seemed for so long to be passing rural America by.

/snip/

But when it became real, spreading across the Midwest, filling hospitals to capacity, many nursing homes found that good infection control on paper was no match for an insidiously contagious virus. The inspection system for American nursing homes left them ill-equipped to deal with the novel coronavirus and, in far too many cases, blind to the threat. At the moment of crisis, a lack of hospital space forced nursing home staffers to take on the burden of covid-19 care — an obligation many shouldered with heroic dedication, but lacked proper equipment and training to fulfill.


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Re: Coronavirus One Year Later

#5

Post by AndyinPA »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2 ... p_dontmiss
Several experts contacted by The Washington Post said people should keep covering their faces on planes once it is no longer required if they are feeling ill or have compromised immune systems. And even absent those conditions, many said they believe mask-wearing is a sound idea in environments like planes.

“Different respiratory pathogens may circulate at different times of the year and in different areas of the world,” Lin Chen, director of the Travel Medicine Center at Mount Auburn Hospital in Cambridge, Mass., and an associate professor at Harvard Medical School, said in an email. “So when flying with travelers from anywhere/everywhere, it’s a good idea to wear masks.”

/snip/

There’s another reason any future traveler might want to choose to wear a mask, and that’s reflected in this season’s extremely low numbers of flu and other viruses. Authorities believe that is due to measures meant to keep covid in check, such as wearing masks and distancing.


Cross posted in Flying the Unfriendly Skies.


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Re: Coronavirus One Year Later

#6

Post by AndyinPA »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... ange-that/
In the campaign to get Americans vaccinated against the coronavirus, especially those aimed at populations skeptical of getting inoculated, Donald Trump has missed his chance to be Elvis Presley.

The former president quietly got vaccinated in January before leaving the White House instead of getting his shot in public — as Presley did in 1956 to encourage people to take what was then the relatively new polio vaccine.

/snip/

On Sunday, Trump devoted a significant section of his speech at the Conservative Political Action Conference to the effort to develop a coronavirus vaccine in record time, and declared: “Everybody go get your shot.” It was the first time he delivered that message.

While there has been a lot of reporting about communities of color being skeptical of getting the vaccine, poll after poll of public opinion has found that Republicans are among the most resistant to getting a shot.


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Re: Coronavirus One Year Later

#7

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https://www.statnews.com/2021/03/02/tru ... arp-speed/
WASHINGTON — The Trump administration quietly took around $10 billion from a fund meant to help hospitals and health care providers affected by Covid-19 and used the money to bankroll Operation Warp Speed contracts, four former Trump administration officials told STAT.

The Department of Health and Human Services appears to have used a financial maneuver that allowed officials to spend the money without telling Congress, and the agency got permission from its top lawyer to do so. Now, the Biden administration is refusing to say whether the outlay means there will be less money available for hospitals, physicians, nursing homes, and other providers.

Several provider groups said they had not heard that $10 billion for providers was spent on Warp Speed contracts until STAT’s reporting. Congress set aside that money to help health care providers pay for pandemic-related expenses including staffing, personal protective equipment, care for uninsured patients, and vaccine distribution. One of the top hospital lobbyists in D.C., who also did not know about the outlay, emphasized how much some hospitals still need the funding.

“Hospitals in need of the funding would be outraged to know that some of the money was siphoned off, even for important uses, because Congress was clear that this money was for providers and clinicians,” said Chip Kahn, CEO of the Federation of American Hospitals.


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Re: Coronavirus One Year Later

#8

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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/br ... li=BBnb7Kz
RIO DE JANEIRO — Covid-19 has already left a trail of death and despair in Brazil, one of the worst in the world. Now, a year into the pandemic, the country is setting another wrenching record.

No other nation that experienced such a major outbreak is still grappling with record-setting death tolls and a health care system on the brink of collapse. Many other hard-hit nations are, instead, taking tentative steps toward a semblance of normalcy.

But Brazil is battling a more contagious variant that has trampled one major city and is spreading to others, even as Brazilians toss away precautionary measures that could keep them safe.

On Tuesday, Brazil recorded more than 1,700 Covid-19 deaths, the highest single-day toll of the pandemic.


"When enough people make false promises, words stop meaning anything. Then there are no more answers, only better and better lies." - Jon Snow, GOT
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Re: Coronavirus One Year Later

#9

Post by AndyinPA »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... story.html
Lately, nine or 10 times a month, Jason Oszczakiewicz, a Pennsylvania funeral home director known as “Oz,” walks into his local post office. Each time, he carries the same special package: the ashes of someone who has just died.

“I seem to be mailing a lot to Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, New York,” Oz said, after sending “a gentleman, a son, to his mother in Florida.”

The pandemic that has changed the rhythms and rituals of life is doing that in death, too.

Eulogies are delivered over Zoom. Memorial services are often held months late, if at all. More people are opting for cremation, accelerating the shift from burying bodies. And, with out-of-state relatives unable to travel to pick up the cremated remains because of health risks, the U.S. Postal Service is increasingly delivering ashes to doorsteps.

“You can only send them Priority Express Mail, and they require a signature,” explained Lori Cash, who works in a small post office outside Buffalo. “Obviously, it would be horrible to come home and find cremated remains waiting for you.”


"When enough people make false promises, words stop meaning anything. Then there are no more answers, only better and better lies." - Jon Snow, GOT
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Re: Coronavirus One Year Later

#10

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https://www.courant.com/coronavirus/hc- ... story.html
Gov. Ned Lamont on Thursday announced that he will roll back pandemic-related restrictions in Connecticut starting March 19, including allowing restaurants to operate at full capacity, loosening rules on sports and entertainment venues and lifting the state’s travel ban.

The state will maintain some key measures, including a mask mandate, social distancing rules, a curfew for restaurants and the closure of all bars. Restaurants, retail stores, houses of worship and other businesses will be allowed to reopen at full capacity, within the confines of the remaining rules.

Sports will be allowed to resume fully, with outdoor venues permitted up to 50% capacity, capped at 10,000 visitors, and indoor venues permitted up to 10% capacity. Travelers will still be recommended to quarantine after arriving in Connecticut, but they will not be required to do so.

Most of the new changes will take effect on March 19, with several more following over the subsequent two weeks. The reopening anticipates a summer that approaches something more normal, with outdoor concerts, ballgames and weddings along with reduced travel restrictions.


"When enough people make false promises, words stop meaning anything. Then there are no more answers, only better and better lies." - Jon Snow, GOT
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Lani
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Re: Coronavirus One Year Later

#11

Post by Lani »

DOE is trying to reopen public schools on March 22. Probably, all schools will start with half-home, half-classroom at first. In April, Kauai will reopen to tourists who tested negative before flying here. Later, proof of vaccination might be accepted, too. Capacity rates will probably increase for local businesses in April.

About 20% of the population has been vaccinated. LOL, our 65+ population is about 20%, so we know where most of the shots went. Teachers have been added to essential workers, so that's underway now.

We're down to 1 or 2 cases per week, all related to travel from the mainland. :( But no community spread. I hope that doesn't change.


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sugar magnolia
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Re: Coronavirus One Year Later

#12

Post by sugar magnolia »

AndyinPA wrote: Thu Mar 04, 2021 11:01 pm https://www.courant.com/coronavirus/hc- ... story.html
Gov. Ned Lamont on Thursday announced that he will roll back pandemic-related restrictions in Connecticut starting March 19, including allowing restaurants to operate at full capacity, loosening rules on sports and entertainment venues and lifting the state’s travel ban.

The state will maintain some key measures, including a mask mandate, social distancing rules, a curfew for restaurants and the closure of all bars. Restaurants, retail stores, houses of worship and other businesses will be allowed to reopen at full capacity, within the confines of the remaining rules.

Sports will be allowed to resume fully, with outdoor venues permitted up to 50% capacity, capped at 10,000 visitors, and indoor venues permitted up to 10% capacity. Travelers will still be recommended to quarantine after arriving in Connecticut, but they will not be required to do so.

Most of the new changes will take effect on March 19, with several more following over the subsequent two weeks. The reopening anticipates a summer that approaches something more normal, with outdoor concerts, ballgames and weddings along with reduced travel restrictions.
My friend's dad in CT, 87 years old, died yesterday of covid. They have been trying for weeks to get his dad, and his mother, a vaccine with no luck. They both wound up in the hospital with it, and even though they both had it, and were both in the same hospital, his mom was not allowed in the room with his dad, who died with no one but a nurse by his side. Maybe they should worry about getting people vaccinated before reopening everything.


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Re: Coronavirus One Year Later

#13

Post by raison de arizona »

So sorry for your friend’s loss, Sugar. Full capacity indoor dining but an 87 year old can’t get a vax? Misplaced priorities for sure.


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Re: Coronavirus One Year Later

#14

Post by AndyinPA »

I'm very sorry for your friend's loss. It seems especially cruel at this point with a vaccine out there to get and die from Covid. I don't understand the sudden rush to open up. There's no one at the federal level pushing it, as far as I know.


"When enough people make false promises, words stop meaning anything. Then there are no more answers, only better and better lies." - Jon Snow, GOT
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Re: Coronavirus One Year Later

#15

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https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... s-suggests
An outbreak of a deadly pig disease may have set the stage for Covid-19 to take hold in humans, a new analysis has suggested. African swine fever (ASF), which first swept through China in 2018, disrupted pork supplies increasing the potential for human-virus contact as people sought out alternative meats.

Pork is the main meat source in the Chinese diet, and the country produces half of the world’s pigs, which generate roughly 55m tonnes of pork annually, forming an industry worth more than $128bn (£98bn). The ASF outbreak had spread across most of China by the fourth quarter of 2019. The disease is untreatable and incurable. Once it takes hold, the only solution is to kill infected animals.

The dramatic drop in pork supply, after restrictions on movement of pigs and culling led to price rises, escalated demand for alternative sources of meat to be transported nationwide. These sources included wild animals, thus greatly increasing opportunities for human-coronavirus contact, a team of researchers from China and the UK have suggested in a yet to be peer-reviewed analysis.


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Re: Coronavirus One Year Later

#16

Post by AndyinPA »

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/c ... story.html
Federal health officials on Wednesday substantially relaxed the government’s guidelines for family and friends to see nursing home residents in person, saying that vaccinations and a slowing of coronavirus infections in the facilities warrant restoring indoor visits in most situations.

The nursing home guidance, the first federal advice on the subject since September, says “outdoor visitation is preferred,” even when a nursing home resident and family or friends are fully vaccinated against the novel coronavirus.

But acknowledging that weather or a resident’s poor health might make an outdoor visit impractical, the recommendations encourage nursing homes to permit indoor visits “at all times and for all residents,” regardless of whether people have been vaccinated, except in a few circumstances.


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Re: Coronavirus One Year Later

#17

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https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2021/03/11 ... quirement/
NEW YORK (CBSNewYork) – The days of the COVID-19 travel quarantine requirements are coming to an end.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced Thursday that as of April 1, domestic travelers into New York state will no longer be required to quarantine.

:snippity:

Mandatory quarantine will still be required for international travelers arriving into the state.


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Re: Coronavirus One Year Later

#18

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https://www.washingtonpost.com/entertai ... story.html
Musical theater lovers can now buy tickets for September performances of “Hadestown” in Orlando, a November run of “Rent” in Charlotte and December dates of “Hamilton” in Austin, signaling a performing-arts comeback this fall with Broadway leading the charge.

Subscription packages for some of Broadway’s biggest hits are being sold at a handful of the nation’s performing-arts centers, while a host of others have booked dates and plan to sell subscriptions this spring. Although performances are almost six months away and could change, the multi-show packages represent a significant step for a cultural industry that has been dark for nearly a year.

“The wheels are in motion — it’s just that everyone is touching wood [for luck] every five minutes,” the director of “Hadestown,” Rachel Chavkin, said about the national tour of the Tony-winning musical. “There’s a balance between excitement at beginning to carve your life around something concrete again and a skepticism about that. For me, personally, I am beginning to think about making soft plans for the fall. I have a calendar with some dates that say ‘Subject to change.’ ”

The promise of national tours is crucial for many performing-arts centers, which are planning to present smaller and mostly outdoor events in the spring and summer. Arts center officials expect almost a dozen Broadway shows — including “Mean Girls,” “Tootsie” and “Ain’t Too Proud: The Life and Times of The Temptations” — will usher in the return of indoor, full-capacity productions. It appears that Broadway producers are eyeing fall as the most likely option for performances to resume.


"When enough people make false promises, words stop meaning anything. Then there are no more answers, only better and better lies." - Jon Snow, GOT
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Re: Coronavirus One Year Later

#19

Post by Lani »

AndyinPA wrote: Thu Mar 11, 2021 1:55 pm https://newyork.cbslocal.com/2021/03/11 ... quirement/
NEW YORK (CBSNewYork) – The days of the COVID-19 travel quarantine requirements are coming to an end.

Gov. Andrew Cuomo announced Thursday that as of April 1, domestic travelers into New York state will no longer be required to quarantine.

:snippity:

Mandatory quarantine will still be required for international travelers arriving into the state.
So soon? With the new variants spreading in NY? Why not at least require a pretravel covid test? This might not turn out well.... :?


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Re: Coronavirus One Year Later

#20

Post by Foggy »

I received a written "Proof of Vaccination" in my email yesterday. I will carry it in my wallet. :towel:


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Re: Coronavirus One Year Later

#21

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Foggy wrote: Fri Mar 12, 2021 7:17 am I received a written "Proof of Vaccination" in my email yesterday. I will carry it in my wallet. :towel:
Everyone here gets a card that's filled out with lot numbers and dates. It's a little big for a wallet, though not much. I'm thinking of copying it and putting it in my wallet, though. I think the one we were given is supposed to go into the vaccination record. We have one because we've had vaccinations for international travel, but I'm not sure if a lot of people have them.


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Re: Coronavirus One Year Later

#22

Post by zekeb »

AndyinPA wrote: Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:47 am
Foggy wrote: Fri Mar 12, 2021 7:17 am I received a written "Proof of Vaccination" in my email yesterday. I will carry it in my wallet. :towel:
Everyone here gets a card that's filled out with lot numbers and dates. It's a little big for a wallet, though not much. I'm thinking of copying it and putting it in my wallet, though. I think the one we were given is supposed to go into the vaccination record. We have one because we've had vaccinations for international travel, but I'm not sure if a lot of people have them.
I have a similar card. If they decide to use a vaccination "passport", I doubt the card will be sufficient proof. Mine can be counterfeited easily.


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Re: Coronavirus One Year Later

#23

Post by AndyinPA »

zekeb wrote: Fri Mar 12, 2021 11:06 am
AndyinPA wrote: Fri Mar 12, 2021 10:47 am
Foggy wrote: Fri Mar 12, 2021 7:17 am I received a written "Proof of Vaccination" in my email yesterday. I will carry it in my wallet. :towel:
Everyone here gets a card that's filled out with lot numbers and dates. It's a little big for a wallet, though not much. I'm thinking of copying it and putting it in my wallet, though. I think the one we were given is supposed to go into the vaccination record. We have one because we've had vaccinations for international travel, but I'm not sure if a lot of people have them.
I have a similar card. If they decide to use a vaccination "passport", I doubt the card will be sufficient proof. Mine can be counterfeited easily.
I agree this card could be easily counterfeited. There's talk on travel sites about the vaccination "passport," which will probably become a real thing. I will be first in line for that!


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Re: Coronavirus One Year Later

#24

Post by MN-Skeptic »

The best thing about a vaccination passport: You won't have to fly with all those obnoxious MAGA anti-vaxxers!


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Re: Coronavirus One Year Later

#25

Post by AndyinPA »

:lol:


"When enough people make false promises, words stop meaning anything. Then there are no more answers, only better and better lies." - Jon Snow, GOT
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