Fogbow

Posted: **Mon Nov 14, 2022 4:08 pm**

Jordan

Posted: **Mon Nov 14, 2022 4:17 pm**

Ben-Prime wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 3:57 pm
raison de arizona wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 3:28 pm In my crystal ball I see the wingnut caucus having too much power to have a McCarthy speakership. I don't think it will happen. That's my prediction. FoxNews says the wingnuts are putting up Biggs, then they will all settle on Jordan, god help us. But yeah, I think the R's control of the House is going to be slim enough that the wingnut caucus will be able to block them at every turn.
So as I understand it, it's a 50% + 1 vote for the Speaker, right? So if the margin of R over D is low enough, it looks like the final winner is going to have to be a compromise candidate that can pull in D votes. Or am I missing something?

They don't need any Ds if they can get all the Rs to vote for the same person. But yeah, that might be a thought as well, freeze out the wingnuts and settle on someone the Ds can stomach and cross-over to as well. Reference pigs flying, etc.

Posted: **Mon Nov 14, 2022 4:28 pm**

I can’t see any House Republicans giving Dems any say on the Speakership. That would be political suicide and virtually all the Rs willing to do that are already gone.

Posted: **Mon Nov 14, 2022 4:31 pm**

My uninformed guess is that the Ds won't vote for ANY R, so the Rs are just going to have to play nice and come to an agreement.

And there will have to be a lot of 'come to an agreement' over the next two years.

Posted: **Mon Nov 14, 2022 4:33 pm**

raison de arizona wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 4:17 pm
Ben-Prime wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 3:57 pm
raison de arizona wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 3:28 pm In my crystal ball I see the wingnut caucus having too much power to have a McCarthy speakership. I don't think it will happen. That's my prediction. FoxNews says the wingnuts are putting up Biggs, then they will all settle on Jordan, god help us. But yeah, I think the R's control of the House is going to be slim enough that the wingnut caucus will be able to block them at every turn.
So as I understand it, it's a 50% + 1 vote for the Speaker, right? So if the margin of R over D is low enough, it looks like the final winner is going to have to be a compromise candidate that can pull in D votes. Or am I missing something?
They don't need any Ds if they can get all the Rs to vote for the same person. But yeah, that might be a thought as well, freeze out the wingnuts and settle on someone the Ds can stomach and cross-over to as well. Reference pigs flying, etc.

A cross-over candidate might happen.

Even though 50% + 1 is enough to pass a bill in the House, the R's cannot hope to enact any laws that the D-controlled Senate won't pass and the president won't sign. That might keep them in check, at least a little bit.

So, a compromise candidate who will actually work with D's to get things done, might be attractive to sane members on both sides.

Who might that be?

Posted: **Mon Nov 14, 2022 5:13 pm**

I don't thing they are interested in getting anything done, other than impeaching Biden, etc.

Posted: **Mon Nov 14, 2022 5:19 pm**

Gaetz is a hard no on McCarthy.

Posted: **Mon Nov 14, 2022 5:33 pm**

mtg as well, I believe there will be enough to block him

Ron Filipkowski 🇺🇦 @RonFilipkowski wrote: Marge Greene today on battle for Speaker: “We’re going to fight it out. I’m not afraid of the civil war in the GOP. I lean into it.”

Posted: **Mon Nov 14, 2022 6:01 pm**

Ben-Prime wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 3:57 pmSo as I understand it, it's a 50% + 1 vote for the Speaker, right? So if the margin of R over D is low enough, it looks like the final winner is going to have to be a compromise candidate that can pull in D votes. Or am I missing something?

The incoming speaker could make a bevy of promises to ensure a majority vote, i.e., Whip Gaetz, Conference Chair Jordan, [plum] Committee Chair Green, etc. H.R. 1 will be "IMPEACH BRANDON!" and will get a full House vote, etc.

The more interesting move will be if the Democratic Conference delivers its 200+ votes to a moderate Republican.

Posted: **Mon Nov 14, 2022 7:09 pm**

noblepa wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 4:33 pmEven though 50% + 1 is enough to pass a bill in the House, the R's cannot hope to enact any laws that the D-controlled Senate won't pass and the president won't sign. That might keep them in check, at least a little bit.

I doubt itll keep them too much in check. Theyll likeky see this as an opporunity to try to pass a bunch of crazy stuff to show potential voters what their party wants. They would essentially be saying to voters "We got this thru the House, but if you want the Dems to quit blocking legislation like this, you have to vote them out of them Senate and Presidency.

How effective such a strategy might be will depend a lot on how astutely they can guess what the public really wants. Our best hope is that they'll continue to miss the mark in that

Posted: **Mon Nov 14, 2022 7:27 pm**

What’s the current over-under on how many newly elected or re-elected members of Congress will either have indictments unsealed, or else get named, shamed, and referred in the J6C report, in the coming few weeks?

And how does that play into how serious or not we should take House leadership posturing in these early days?

Posted: **Mon Nov 14, 2022 7:42 pm**

Here’s my thought… The smaller fringe group of MAGA congress critters will have more power than their size would indicate. Since they are the recalcitrant but needed group they will make demands (extortion) for their vote. The bargaining won’t be pretty.

Think about it in the context of Manchin and Sinema in the Senate for the Dems the last two years.

Does that seem accurate?

Posted: **Mon Nov 14, 2022 7:55 pm**

Posted: **Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:16 am**

raison de arizona wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 5:33 pm mtg as well, I believe there will be enough to block him
https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/stat ... 9088070662
Ron Filipkowski 🇺🇦 @RonFilipkowski wrote: Marge Greene today on battle for Speaker: “We’re going to fight it out. I’m not afraid of the civil war in the GOP. I lean into it.”

Be there many Democrat trees to water

Posted: **Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:36 am**

Even if there's no real chance of a Dem taking the speakers hip, I think they should jominate someone just to remind the pubs how small their hold is... and I'd LOVE it if Dem leadership started locating pubs who are real kosher with the crap their side is likely to throw (such as pointless investigations) and tried to recruit them to change sides. If the pubs hold is small enough and their leadership repugnant enough we can take the House back in a matter of months, not 2 years...

Ok, ok, I know it's a dream, but I gotta do something for fun, y'know!

Posted: **Tue Nov 15, 2022 12:59 pm**

At this point, all pictures of Kevin McCarthy on the internet need to be replaced with an animated gif of the dog who just caught the car by the bumper and has no idea what to do next.

Posted: **Tue Nov 15, 2022 1:21 pm**

SCOOP:
@RepMTG
's worst fears could soon be coming true.

DON BACON (R-Neb.) tells
@NBCNews
he's willing to work with DEMS to elect a moderate Speaker if 218 Republicans can't agree on a candidate.
@RepDonBacon

w/
@KyleAlexStewart

@jonallendc

Posted: **Tue Nov 15, 2022 1:39 pm**

Nancy Pelosi

Posted: **Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:23 pm**

Andy Biggs lost his rival bid

Posted: **Tue Nov 15, 2022 2:30 pm**

Half of me says eff you Biggs but the other half says eff you McCarthy.

Posted: **Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:10 pm**

So as I understand it, it means that 30 of those 31 Republicans will have to vote for him for Speaker over any candidate the Democrats put up, yes?

Posted: **Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:25 pm**

On the other side:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/1 ... 2-00066984

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) announced a challenge to Mitch McConnell in a closed-door party lunch on Tuesday afternoon, the first such opposition that the Senate GOP leader is facing in 15 years at the helm.

The challenge emerged after Republicans’ disappointing midterm performance provoked a tremendous round of finger-pointing. Scott, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee and got nudged to mount opposition to McConnell by former President Donald Trump, was at odds with the GOP leader over strategy and tactics for months before Election Day.

McConnell says he already has the votes locked up to win a Wednesday leadership election, and Scott is not expected to garner enough support to come close to toppling the leader. But Scott is pressing forward anyway, as a band of conservatives pushes to delay leadership elections until all the Senate races are determined.

McKinley Lewis, a spokesman for Scott, confirmed his leadership bid.

Posted: **Tue Nov 15, 2022 5:09 pm**

Ben-Prime wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 3:10 pm So as I understand it, it means that 30 of those 31 Republicans will have to vote for him for Speaker over any candidate the Democrats put up, yes?

Not necessarily: The speaker needs to receive only a majority of votes cast, and not votes from a majority of the representatives. Pelosi, for example, in 2021 was elected with only 216 votes. (In addition to Pelosi and McCarthy, two other candidates each received a vote. Three members voted "present." Three members didn't vote, and two seats were still vacant.) But Pelosi won because she received a majority of the 427 votes that were cast. Boehner similarly won in 2015 with only 216 of the 408 votes cast.

So protesting Republicans could just not vote. Or a certain percentage could vote "present," which would run up the threshold required to receive a majority of votes cast. They just have to make sure McCarthy receives a majority of votes actually cast.

And smoked-filled deals are intended to prevent such drama.

Posted: **Tue Nov 15, 2022 5:16 pm**

We still don't know the final D/R split of the House, do we?

Posted: **Tue Nov 15, 2022 5:19 pm**

SuzieC wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 5:16 pm We still don't know the final D/R split of the House, do we?

No: Democrats are projected to win 206 (or 207, depending on who you ask), and Republicans are projected to win 217 (or 216). The remaining are too close to call. The majority of uncalled races are in California. Alaska's seat, and one of Maine's, have not been called; both states have ranked-choice voting.

Realistically, the Republicans are going to have a majority; the issue is the size. It'll be small; my guess is they will have no more than 222 seats.