Russia

[RTH10260]

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1 ... 4302015768

NOW Blackout in Rostov-on-Don, Russia. Many areas are cut off from electricity. In some areas of the city, the water pressure in the taps dropped and the heating stopped. The situation is the same in neighboring Bataysk.

Rostov is a large hub for the Russian army near the border with Ukraine.

A new unverified post claims that on the night before the fire Russian authorities rounded up male workers as recruits for the army. Claim is that the fire was then set by employees. The posting had video clip from inside the warehouse and workers fleeing the fire. The commenter noted that those escaping the fire were hindered leaving by security cause of fear of theft ...

[Slim Cognito]

Wow, I wonder if we'll ever see accurate stats on how many military age males have left Russia, either voluntarily or simply left this earthly plane because of the war. It sounds like it could be significant.

[Suranis]

Confirmation https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/pu ... r-BB1h1lcT

FYI, the US National Archives still has the cheque that the Russian government signed in agreement to the sale of Alaska for $7.2million.

https://www.archives.gov/milestone-docu ... d%20States.

[Volkonski]

Putin must be out of his mind!

[much ado]

FYI, the US National Archives still has the cheque that the Russian government signed in agreement to the sale of Alaska for $7.2million.

That's so cool! Thanks Suranis!

[Dave from down under]

Next up..

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian ... th_America

The Russian colonization of North America covers the period from 1732 to 1867, when the Russian Empire laid claim to northern Pacific Coast territories in the Americas. Russian colonial possessions in the Americas are collectively known as Russian America ((Russian: Русская Америка, romanized: Russkaya Amerika); 1799 to 1867). It consisted mostly of present-day Alaska in the United States, but also included the outpost of Fort Ross in California, and three forts in Hawaii, including Russian Fort Elizabeth. Russian Creole settlements were concentrated in Alaska, including the capital, New Archangel (Novo-Arkhangelsk), which is now Sitka.

[much ado]

Fort Ross was the southern-most Russian outpost in California. Fort Ross is now a California State Historic Park, open to the public. We used to take the kids to the historical festival that was held in July, where they fired cannons. The last time my wife and I were at Fort Ross, there were groups of Russian-speaking tourists.

Russia has not forgotten Fort Ross. Here is a 2012 Russian stamp commemorating the 200th anniversary of its founding.



From Wikipedia...

Decline of Fort Ross

By 1841 the settlement's agricultural importance had decreased considerably, the local population of fur-bearing marine mammals had been long depleted by international over-hunting, and the recently secularized California missions no longer supplemented the agricultural needs of the Alaskan colonies. Following the formal trade agreement in 1838 between the Russian-American Company in New Archangel and Hudson's Bay Company at Fort Vancouver and Fort Langley for their agricultural needs, the settlement at Fort Ross was no longer needed to supply the Alaskan colonies with food. The Russian-American Company consequently offered the settlement to various potential purchasers, and it was sold to John Sutter, a Mexican citizen of Swiss origin, soon to be renowned for the discovery of gold at his lumber mill in the Sacramento valley. Although the settlement was sold for $30,000 to Sutter, some Russian historians assert the sum was never paid; therefore legal title of the settlement was never transferred to Sutter and the area still belongs to the Russian people. A recent Sutter biography however, asserts that Sutter's agent, Peter Burnett, paid the Russian-American Company agent William M. Steuart $19,788 in "notes and gold" on April 13, 1849, thereby settling the outstanding debt for Fort Ross and Bodega.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fort_Ross,_California

[Foggy]

I spent the summer of 1974 on the Russian River in Northern California, living in a tent with my two dogs at the Free (nude) Beach, near Monte Rio. Well, I did hitchhike back to The City every two weeks or so. Never did meet up with any Russians, tho, but they were scarce in them days.

[much ado]

I spent the summer of 1974 on the Russian River in Northern California, living in a tent with my two dogs at the Free (nude) Beach, near Monte Rio. Well, I did hitchhike back to The City every two weeks or so. Never did meet up with any Russians, tho, but they were scarce in them days.

I envy your misspent youth.

Do you remember any celebrations the day Nixon resigned?

[keith]

I could be misremembering, but i think Fort Elizibeth Hawaii wasnt much more than a beach hut with no garrison.

[much ado]

I could be misremembering, but i think Fort Elizibeth Hawaii wasnt much more than a beach hut with no garrison.

Here's an image of a reconstruction. Remains of the fort walls still exist.

[Volkonski]

Russia still owes the USA for warranty repairs for defective parts of Alaska.

The Romanov family still exists. The USA should again recognize them as the rightful rulers of Russia.

Japan gets the Sakhalin and Kuril Islands back.

Poland and Lithuania should get Kaliningrad.

Finland must get all of the Karelia and the Murmansk Oblast.

Of course Ukraine must get the Crimea back. Also several Russian Oblasts that border Ukraine as war reparations.

[AndyinPA]

[Volkonski]

Putin's Decree Triggers Ominous Alaska Calls

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-decree-t ... on-1862689

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a new decree relating to Moscow's historic real estate holdings abroad, a move interpreted by ultranationalist bloggers as a foundation for future revanchism against Russia's neighbors—and even the U.S.

The decree, signed by the president late last week, allocates funds for the search, registration, and legal protection of Russian property abroad, including property in the former territories of the Russian Empire and the Soviet Union.

This would include Alaska, swathes of eastern and central Europe, large chunks of central Asia, and parts of Scandinavia.

Russia's Foreign Ministry and its presidential administration's Foreign Property Management Enterprise are directed to carry out the work, ordered to find, register, and protect "property" in question.



One prominent ultranationalist, pro-war military blogger framed the decree as a step towards new territorial conflicts with Russian neighbors, including the U.S.

"We suggest starting with Alaska," the Two Majors Telegram channel—which has more than 530,000 subscribers—wrote. Beyond that, the blogger wrote that the Kremlin should look to "Dnieper Ukraine, Bessarabia, the Grand Duchy of Finland, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, the Central Asian states of Russian Turkestan, most of the Baltic provinces, and a significant part of Poland."

[Dave from down under]

Sweden should look to a large chunk of Russia

Perhaps negotiating the split with Mongolia?

[Dave from down under]

France could put a claim in on Moscow..

[RTH10260]

Does Putin think that by this he will be remembered as the fighter for the Great Russian Empire. I think he will be too late to claim the re-established position of Zar Of Russia.

[johnpcapitalist]

It would have been smarter to do this before he invaded Ukraine. That way, the rest of the world wouldn't know how inept his military is and how bad his equipment is. He might have generated actual fear.

Today, all he's doing is getting people outside Russia to laugh at him. It's a real "old man shouting at clouds" moment.

I know he's not directly saying that he wants to reacquire Alaska; it's apparently some legal argle-bargle. He's letting his frothing milbloggers turn the actual announcement into the call to invade Alaska.

[GlimDropper]

RUSSIA Shuts Down Oil & Gas Terminal & Port After Drone Attack as Ukraine Targets Russian Oil & Gas



An interesting point being made, that a lot of Russia's oil production and processing capacity was built by foreign companies. Russia may lack the technical skills and with sanctions, may lack the spare parts to repair equipment.

So long range Ukrainian drone attacks might have an outsized impact on Russia's economy.

[Suranis]

[johnpcapitalist]

RUSSIA Shuts Down Oil & Gas Terminal & Port After Drone Attack as Ukraine Targets Russian Oil & Gas



An interesting point being made, that a lot of Russia's oil production and processing capacity was built by foreign companies. Russia may lack the technical skills and with sanctions, may lack the spare parts to repair equipment.

So long range Ukrainian drone attacks might have an outsized impact on Russia's economy.

I rather like Joe Blogs as a good economic explainer. I haven't found too much of his stuff that I disagree violently with.

Joe Blogs is right about the impact of more of these attacks on Russia, particularly around restarting production.

A relatively small amount of Russian gas goes out via ship through St. Petersburg. Gas destined for Germany and other countries would use pipelines for the most part. So that particular strike is not going to hurt their economy as much as, say, sabotaging a pipeline.

But replacing Western equipment is indeed going to be tough and replacing Western expertise is going to be nearly impossible. That's bad enough for a relatively simple facility like a port terminal, but it's going to be awful for a drilling site.

Much of Russian oil production is in the Far East, where conditions are awful and the only people who can keep production running are Western companies, all of whom have pulled out. I'm surprised that there haven't been more production cuts in Far East fields. I seem to recall reading that there was an ~500k bpd reduction in overall production a couple weeks ago, but not sure which fields were affected. That may have been due to lower domestic demand rather than loss of production.

The Far East production mostly goes to China, because there's no pipeline that goes all the way across Russia to service Europe and Africa. So if Ukraine is able to sabotage the Far East fields, either through special forces operations or via drones, there will be a "twofer" -- Russians get less money and China gets less energy, which will cause even more tremors in their economy. It'll be fun to watch.

[much ado]

Russians get less money and China gets less energy, which will cause even more tremors in their economy. It'll be fun to watch.

I there some chance this may lead to destabilization with unforeseen dangerous consequences?

[johnpcapitalist]

Russians get less money and China gets less energy, which will cause even more tremors in their economy. It'll be fun to watch.

I there some chance this may lead to destabilization with unforeseen dangerous consequences?

There's always a chance. But my belief is that a reduction in Russian oil deliveries to China is less of an issue that would drive China to try to invade Taiwan sooner rather than later than the real estate bubble imploding, the overall slowing in the economy, and the population collapse that will devastate the economy over the next 20 years. It's a speed bump by comparison to these long-term factors that China can't dodge for much longer.

[RTH10260]

https://twitter.com/FRHoffmann1/status/ ... 3251403236

Threadreader

Fabian Hoffmann@FRHoffmann1
Jan 14 • 20 tweets

In this thread, I will explain why we are much closer to war with than most people realize and why our time window for rearmament is shorter than many believe. In my opinion, we have at best 2-3 years to re-establish deterrence vis-à-vis . Here's why 1/20 Image

One common mistake in analyzing the threat posed by Russia is falling into the trap of 'mirror-imaging'. This means assuming that Russia views a potential conflict with us in the same way we view a potential conflict with them. Nothing could be further from the truth. 2/20

In addition, it is important to be cautious about extrapolating too many lessons from Ukraine & assuming that a war with would unfold in a similar manner, albeit on a larger scale. In reality, a war between NATO & Russia would likely take on a different form altogether. 3/20

does not plan for the type of large-scale conventional war with NATO that we are currently seeing in Ukraine & for which we are primarily preparing. Already before taking substantial losses on the battlefield, knew that it would be inferior in such a scenario. 4/20

Russian thinking on a war with NATO revolves around the concept of escalation control and escalation management. Russia's primary objective in a war with NATO is to effectively manage escalation and bring the war to an early end on terms that are favorable to Russia. 5/20

Terminating hostilities early is necessary, given that must secure a victorous outcome before NATO's conventional superiority comes to bear, most notably that of the United States. Two key concepts play a crucial role: de-escalation strikes and aggressive sanctuarization. 6/20

Rather than comprehensively defeating NATO in a prolonged ground war, similar to what we see in Ukraine, Russian doctrine suggests that Russia would attempt to coerce NATO into submission by signaling the ability to inflict progressively greater amounts of damage. 7/20

This would entail, in particular, long-range strikes against critical civilian infrastructure across European NATO countries early on. The message to NATO governments: Don't come to the support of your Eastern European allies, unless you want to see your population suffer. 8/20

Simultaneously, Russia would extend its nuclear umbrella over any NATO territory it managed to capture in an initial assault. This sends a second message: Any endeavor to retake that territory, particularly by external NATO forces (USA), will result in nuclear escalation. 9/20

The psychological fear of escalation, which may ultimately result in unacceptable damage, is supposed to open the door for negotiations about the future of NATO and the security architecture in Europe - of course, on Russia's terms. 10/20

This type of warfighting scenario is not a contest of forces, but primarily a risk-taking competition. The question becomes: Who will be the first to back down when confronted with the prospect of largescale war, including potential exchanges of strategic nuclear warheads? 11/20

As Cold War historians know, the balance of military power is not deterministic of outcomes in risk-taking competitions. Instead, they are often determined by the balance of resolve; i.e., the relative willingness to remain steadfast even as risks are increasing. 12/20

This is why Russia pursues this type of strategy. Russia does not need to match NATO's conventional power. As long as NATO gives in first amid mounting psychological pressure due to a lack of resolve, Russia can walk away with a victory. 13/20

Here's the thing: The ongoing war in Ukraine is teaching Russia a crucial lesson - that the West lacks resolve. Domestic disunity and endless discussions about escalation only reinforce Russia's belief that NATO will back down when push comes to shove. 14/20

This means Russia does not have to wait until its conventional power is reconstituted. Scenarios where we have 5-10 years to rearm following the end of the war are way too optimistic, in my opinion. 15/20

I am with the Eastern European states that we have at best 2-3 years from today to re-establish a credible deterrence posture vis-à-vis Russia. Otherwise, we run the grave risk that Russia is going to challenge us, sooner rather than later. 16/20

NATO must credibly deny Russia the ability to seize any substantial part of NATO territory or to threaten strikes against NATO critical infrastructure. This is needed to escape the coercive conundrum that aggressive sancturization and de-escalation strikes pose. 17/20

We must also have a serious discussion not only about how to deter a war with but also about how to fight one. Are we prepared to retaliate against Russian critical civilian infrastructure in case Russia strikes ours first? How do we react to Russian nuclear first use? 18/20

Our lack of preparedness, both in the physcial space but also in terms of our cognitive ability to think through these scenarios, is encouraging . Since 2014, Russian intellectuals have debated extensively and publicly how to win a war against NATO. Where is our debate? 19/20

What we need, especially in Europe, is whole-of-society effort to get our affairs in order. There's no denying that this will come with a significant cost, but I fail to see any other viable option. Considering worst-case scenarios, as we should, time has already run out. 20/20

[pipistrelle]

Russia's primary objective in a war with NATO is to effectively manage escalation and bring the war to an early end on terms that are favorable to Russia.

Remind me how long Ukraine was gong to last.