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Covid-19 Numbers

We have ALL your misinformation, plus some TRUE FACTS and SCIENCE.
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LM K
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#201

Post by LM K »

AndyinPA wrote: Mon Aug 09, 2021 10:05 pm As terrifying as it must be for adults, just imagine how terrifying and harrowing it must be for children to be all alone in the hospital with Covid; no family, all those machines, and busy masked nurses and doctors.
Throughout the pandemic, pediatric patients were allowed one parent/guardian at a time. Trying to treat children without a caregiver being present just doesn't work. Children are much, much more cooperative with a loved one present. And, you need parental consent for all treatments (there are work around for this but they're often complicated).

There will be some children on their own though for a multitude of reasons.
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#202

Post by LM K »

Slarti the White wrote: Sun Aug 08, 2021 12:14 pm :snippity:

Um... no.

First off, the death rate in the stat Mr. V posted is 2.24 in 1,000 and it is incredibly misleading (since most of those deaths occurred before vaccines were available). Secondly, there are a boatload of assumptions in how you are creating and combining those statistics which are neither realistic nor reasonable. Just your top line number (1 in 25,000,000 chance of dying) would mean that the expected number of deaths in Alabama was one-fifth of a person and we know it was 26 (over an unknown and ever increasing pool of vaccinated people). To see how wrong this is, correcting your 1 in 25,000,000 for your mistake regarding the stat of deaths in Alabama gives a number of 1 in 5,000,000. Which is to say that Alabama, with a population about about 5,000,000, should have about 1 vaccinated death (and the US as a whole should have about 70). Just going off of the Alabama numbers says your odds of dying if vaccinated are about 1 in 200,000 and they will only be going up (as more vaccinated people die). Comparing that to total deaths in Alabama (which is REALLY BAD PRACTICE, statistically speaking), the odds of an unvaccinated person dying of COVID since the beginning of the pandemic is about 1 in 430. Combining these says you are about 500 times more likely to die if you are unvaccinated, which is a HUGE overstatement. Dr. Fauci said that 99% of the people who died in May were unvaccinated, so, at that point, you were about 100 times more likely to die if you weren't vaccinated and that number is only going to FALL as more people get vaccinated and succumb to breakthrough infections. Think about it this way: if 100% of the people were vaccinated, 100% of the deaths would be amongst vaccinated people.

About one in 700 (unvaccinated) Americans has died since the beginning of the pandemic. To compare the death rate among vaccinated persons to that we would have to convert that number to unvaccinated person years per death (i.e. how many years it would take before an average person living through the pandemic would die) - which is a doable, back-of-the-envelope calculus problem - AND compute the same number for vaccinated people, which would mean integrating the vaccination rate to determine the total number of vaccine-days and knowing the total number of deaths amongst the vaccinated. The CDC might have enough data to make a guess as to that, but it would be difficult and require any number of simplifying assumptions that would increase the uncertainty substantially.

Anyway, remember what Thomas Jefferson said: "There are lies, dammed lies, and statistics."
Everytime you write about statistics, I get all :lovestruck: . Science girl loves statistics expert!
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#203

Post by AndyinPA »

LM K wrote: Tue Aug 10, 2021 4:38 pm
AndyinPA wrote: Mon Aug 09, 2021 10:05 pm As terrifying as it must be for adults, just imagine how terrifying and harrowing it must be for children to be all alone in the hospital with Covid; no family, all those machines, and busy masked nurses and doctors.
Throughout the pandemic, pediatric patients were allowed one parent/guardian at a time. Trying to treat children without a caregiver being present just doesn't work. Children are much, much more cooperative with a loved one present. And, you need parental consent for all treatments (there are work around for this but they're often complicated).

There will be some children on their own though for a multitude of reasons.
That makes sense, and, actually, I knew that from personal experience.
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RVInit
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#204

Post by RVInit »

Slim Cognito wrote: Tue Aug 10, 2021 3:09 pm Hubs and I watch BTC's pod casts on YouTube. He seems sane. Not overly hyperbolic, like others I've seen.
Thanks for letting me know. I bookmarked his page and he has a new follow.
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#205

Post by raison de arizona »

ugh.
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Lani
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#206

Post by Lani »

Is the Brazilian variant related to lambda, which is now the most common variant in Paraguay?
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#207

Post by RTH10260 »

unsure if this answers your question
Lani wrote: Tue Aug 10, 2021 10:54 pm Is the Brazilian variant related to lambda, which is now the most common variant in Paraguay?
Paraguay or Peru? Peru seems to have started off with the original "Wuhan" variant in March 2020.
Lambda Covid variant’s ‘unusual’ mutations puzzle scientists
Strain first detected in Peru has spread to 27 countries including the UK

Clive Cookson in London and Gideon Long in Bogotá
JULY 2 2021

Lambda, the latest coronavirus variant to draw the attention of the World Health Organization, is worrying officials in Latin America and puzzling scientists because of its “unusual” set of mutations.

Formerly known as C.37, the Lambda variant was first detected late last year in Peru, and has since spread to 27 countries, including the UK. Public Health England this week said it had been identified “across” the country, although the number of cases it had identified remained small.

Pablo Tsukayama, a doctor in molecular microbiology at the Cayetano Heredia university in Peru’s capital Lima, said that when medics first noted the variant in December, it accounted for “just one in every 200 samples”.

“By March, however, it accounted for about 50 per cent of samples in Lima and now it’s about 80 per cent. That would suggest its rate of transmission is higher than other variants,” he said.

According to the WHO, Lambda accounted for 82 per cent of new Covid-19 cases in May and June in Peru, which has the world’s highest coronavirus mortality rate. In neighbouring Chile, it accounts for almost a third of new cases.



https://www.ft.com/content/b3ea5177-931 ... 16a3bdcd22

also spurios Delta variant reported in Peru http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-0 ... 067805.htm

This WaPo article says Paraguay now has Brazialian variant https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... h-america/
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Lani
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#208

Post by Lani »

Oops. I wrote about lambda in the covid research thread. Yes, it was first found in Peru. It's now in 44 US states. Japanese scientists are concerned that lambda may be resistant to current vaccines.
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#209

Post by Slim Cognito »

Lani wrote: Wed Aug 11, 2021 12:47 am Oops. I wrote about lambda in the covid research thread. Yes, it was first found in Peru. It's now in 44 US states. Japanese scientists are concerned that lambda may be resistant to current vaccines.
sorry, I'll try to find the link but I think I read the Japanese scientists were using the less effective Chinese vaccine. Here's to hoping the others work better against it.
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Lani
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#210

Post by Lani »

Yes, apparently they used the sinovac in their research.
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#211

Post by Volkonski »



Schools just opening this week and next. :?
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Notaperson
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#212

Post by Notaperson »

As of today Florda has over 16,000 Covid hospitalizations. That's an increase of 6,000 in just under two weeks.

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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#213

Post by Volkonski »

“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#214

Post by Volkonski »

“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#215

Post by Volkonski »

“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#216

Post by Volkonski »

“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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tek
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#217

Post by tek »

Alabama (99.31%)
Florida (91.63%)
Georgia (91.03%)
Mississippi (91.26%)
Texas (91.38%)
But Dr. DeSantis says no problem, viruses tend go away in the summer!
Or maybe the winter.

Actually, I think he's said both.
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#218

Post by sugar magnolia »

Volkonski wrote: Tue Aug 17, 2021 4:26 pm
Ours would be higher than that if they hadn't just opened a 50-bed unit in the fucking parking garage at the hospital. The second one, for MAB, opened the next day.
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#219

Post by raison de arizona »

Well this is... bad. That's not even a curve, it's a cliff.
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#220

Post by Notaperson »

Can anyone explain what that means in plain language?
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#221

Post by MN-Skeptic »

Notaperson wrote: Wed Aug 18, 2021 1:18 pm Can anyone explain what that means in plain language?
We're fucked.
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#222

Post by Suranis »

https://www.cdc.gov/training/QuickLearns/CreateEpi/
What is an Epi Curve?

An epi curve is a visual display of the onset of illness among cases associated with an outbreak.

You can learn a lot about an outbreak from an epi curve, such as

The outbreak's time trend, that is, the distribution of cases over time
Outliers, that is, cases that stand apart from the overall pattern
General sense of the outbreak's magnitude
Inferences about the outbreak's pattern of spread
The most likely time period of exposure

X and Y Axes

An epi curve is represented by a graph with two axes that intersect at right angles.

The horizontal x-axis is the date or time of illness onset among cases.

The vertical y-axis is the number of cases.

Each axis is divided into equally spaced intervals, although the intervals for the two axes may differ.

Cases

Cases (represented by boxes) are placed along the x-axis according to the date when their earliest symptoms began.

If symptoms for more than one case began on the same date (or time), the boxes are stacked one above the other.

Epi Curve.png
Epi Curve.png (138.88 KiB) Viewed 1488 times
Time Intervals

The unit of time for the x-axis is based on the incubation period of the disease under investigation and the length of time over which cases are distributed.

As a general rule, the unit of time is set at roughly 1/4 (0.25) of the average incubation period for the illness under investigation.

Average incubation period
multiplied by .25 = Intervals

If the incubation period of an illness is short, the interval on the epi curve might be indicated in hours or even minutes.

View the example below

The incubation period for infection with E. coli O1257:H7 is usually 3–4 days. In this case, you would probably use an interval of one day on the x-axis.

4 days multiplied by 0.25 = 1 day
intervals (4 x 0.25 = 1)
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#223

Post by raison de arizona »

► Show Spoiler
And... it gets worse. er.
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#224

Post by Volkonski »

“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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Re: Covid-19 Numbers

#225

Post by Volkonski »

Sturgis
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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