Iowa Caucus / New Hampshire & South Carolina Primaries

#1

The networks are struggling to find anything relevant about tonight's Iowa Caucus. (So have we, didn't even see a topic.) Fighting over second place isn't thrilling. But WEATHER!

All that said, Jen Psaki looks fantastic, she's anchoring for Nicole. David Plouffe and Michael Steele are always fun.

Link to MSNBC live:

https://www.livenewsmag.com/msnbc-live-tv/

Gosh, who will it be, Nikki or Ron? The RDS X pumpers are still SURE he's going to win (at least almost) and they'll NEVER vote for DJT.

MAGAs are whining about Democrats being able to caucus (it's open with same-day registration). When reminded of Rush Limbaugh's Operation Chaos, shockingly they stop replying.

Kendra · #2

Watching MSNBC too. Finally someone said the quiet part out loud about tfg's team offering free rides to caucus - that they'd likely be one way rides

Rolodex · #3

I don't think the Ds caucus. they're sending out "preference cards" or something like that and no decision is made till sometime in Feb. At least that's what my feeble mind remembers about something I read.

#4

The Ds are not doing a caucus this time around in Iowa. I did not hear about mailed preference cards. It's good for Dems not having to go out in this weather.

bob · #5

neonzx wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 6:06 pm The Ds are not doing a caucus this time around in Iowa. I did not hear about mailed preference cards. It's good for Dems not having to go out in this weather.

Yeah; and there's only two other people on the Democratic ballot (Phillips and Williamson), so I wouldn't expect to see a rush to mailbox or anything.

538 ABC: What each candidate needs to do in the Iowa caucuses:

Even Trump will want to exceed expectations.

As often is the case, the early contests are about momentum and expectations.

Coming is a strong second will be a boon, sure.

The biggest margin of victory (since 1980) in a Republican Iowa caucus was 1988, when Dole beat Robertson by over 12 points. So if the victor today beats that benchmark (and that likely will happen), expect to hear "blowout" often. Even though it'll only be a marginal difference in the delegate count.

I think really the only issue is whether Ramaswamy will suck so bad that he'll pull the plug before New Hampshire.

#6

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https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2 ... d-00135501

#7

#8

This is why Iowa keeps being a candidate to be removed as first in the nation. 65% white evangelical just isn't America anymore.

Kendra · #9

MSNBC projects tfg as winner of caucuses. `

#10

CNN too also. 8;30pm. "They want one more shot at electing Trump" -- Scott Jennings. Another jump toward DOOM for the GOP.

Bill Mitchell is already melting down.

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#11

RDS "exploded" back into second place

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#12

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Looks like we know where Bill is getting his talking points.

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p0rtia · #13

He's not wrong.

Huh.

First time for everything.

bob · #14

After spending many dollars, Ramaswamy was awarded ... zero delegates.

And he won't be at the next debates.

Where's my sticking fork?

Edit: UPDATE!

#15

Only 106K turnout and half of the whitest, ruralist, conservativist state doesn't want DJT.

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RTH10260 · #16

bob wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 10:42 pm After spending many dollars, Ramaswamy was awarded ... zero delegates.

And he won't be at the next debates.

Where's my sticking fork?

#17

MSNBC is reporting that Vivek is throwing in the towel.

#18

Yeah, just heard it from Vivek’s own mouth on Fox. Suspended. Full tfg endorsement.

#19

Vivek broadcast his exit as a Twitter Space if you want to see it (had no interest).

So there, Bill Mitchell sez!

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RTH10260 · #20

raison de arizona wrote: ↑Mon Jan 15, 2024 11:22 pm Yeah, just heard it from Vivek’s own mouth on Fox. Suspended. Full tfg endorsement.

Must be fake news. Elon Musk just claimed he will have bestest results viewtopic.php?p=240049#p240049

Uninformed · #21

I know there other significant factors in play this time but, silver lining?

In the 2020 Iowa Republican caucus tfg got 97.1% of the vote, in 2024 51%.

#22

Uninformed wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:34 am I know there other significant factors in play this time but, silver lining?

In the 2020 Iowa Republican caucus tfg got 97.1% of the vote, in 2024 51%.

I mean, yeah. Turn it this way- half the Republicans that came out in the cold weather came out to vote AGAINST tfg.

A boy can hope.

#23

raison de arizona wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:38 am
Uninformed wrote: ↑Tue Jan 16, 2024 11:34 am I know there other significant factors in play this time but, silver lining?

In the 2020 Iowa Republican caucus tfg got 97.1% of the vote, in 2024 51%.
I mean, yeah. Turn it this way- half the Republicans that came out in the cold weather came out to vote AGAINST tfg.

A boy can hope.

Stronger competition this time (not the incumbent, despite what he thinks) but one can hope.

bob · #24

538 ABC: Who’s On Track For The GOP Nomination?

Executive summary: Only one candidate overachieved; the rest underachieved.

And (because this is 538) the benchmarks are somewhat subjective, as they anticipate the volume and weight of the later primaries. That is, the Republican nomination process is structured so that an early leader likely will capture enough later winner-take-all states, to encourage a quick primary season. To be truly competitive in the Republican primary, it has to be absolute horserace early on; if it isn't, the leader's margin quickly will grow past the point where an underdog could have a meaningful late strong run.

According to 538's models, DeSantis' best path is strike hard and quick, and wrap up the primary early. Whereas Haley's best shot is slow and steady, picking up enough delegates along to way, and then get pushed over the top at the very end, when more of her "more favorable" states will be voting.

bob · #25

And there chuckleheads still dickering about Georgia and Arizona counted in 2020....

It would be so easy to "mule" in some extra votes there.