A General thread for 2024 Presidential Elections

[raison de arizona]

Vivek Ramaswamy's campaign stops all TV ad spending less than a month before Iowa and New Hampshire
A spokesperson for the GOP candidate’s presidential campaign said it has "the ability to be nimble and hyper targeted" in ad spending going forward.

Vivek Ramaswamy’s presidential campaign has stopped spending money on television ads and does not have any TV ad reservations booked, according to his campaign and data from an ad-tracking firm.

As recently as the first full week of December, the GOP entrepreneur’s campaign spent more than $200,000 on TV ads. Last week, it spent just $6,000 on ads — all of it on TV — figures from the firm AdImpact show.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-e ... rcna131240

[RTH10260]

RNC Heads Into Presidential Election Year With A Small Fraction Of What It Had Four Years Ago
The party has $7.6 million heading into 2024, barely a tenth of what it had at the start of 2020 after accounting for inflation and creating anxiety among members.

By S.V. Date
Dec 22, 2023, 05:04 PM EST

WASHINGTON — The Republican National Committee heads into the 2024 presidential election year with just $7.6 million available, barely a tenth of what it had four years ago, after accounting for inflation.

Even compared to the end of 2015, the last time it was entering a presidential election year with the opposite party controlling the White House, it has just a third of the $21.3 million the party had then in inflation-adjusted dollars.

“There’s significant anxiety,” said Oscar Brock, a committee member from Tennessee.

Party leaders are keenly aware of the financial picture and how it makes the voter-registration and turnout operation it will need next November more difficult. And while members point to a number of factors for the weak fundraising, one name comes up frequently: Donald Trump, the coup-attempting former president under whose leadership the party has had one bad election after another.

Henry Barbour, a longtime member from Mississippi, said the reasons for the poor fundraising are obvious: “2020, and then 2022” — and at the top of the list: “Trump.”

One major donor to the party, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the low cash-on-hand figure right now is not particularly worrisome, and that the RNC anticipates that situation when it does not hold the White House and therefore cannot use the trappings of the presidency to raise money.

He added that RNC chair Ronna McDaniel, handpicked by Trump after his 2016 election win but who subsequently won two more two-year terms after his departure, had relied on Trump’s ability to bring in small-dollar donations, which ended when Trump announced his campaign a year ago.



https://www.huffpost.com/entry/rnc-weak ... 698a1364f8

[AndyinPA]

Every thing tfg touches turns to sh*t. When will they ever learn?

[bob]

Well, at least Uygur finally sued somebody.

"For completeness": Uygur v. South Carolina (D.S.C. Dkt. No. 23-6879).

Uygur has moved for a preliminary injunction, where the real action will be.

[bill_g]

[AndyinPA]

[Kendra]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/04/politics ... index.html

Takeaways from CNN’s town halls with DeSantis and Haley

Candidates discuss guns hours after Iowa shooting
Thursday’s town hall took place hours after a school shooting in Perry, Iowa in which a middle school student was killed and five others were injured. DeSantis was asked how, in light of the attack, he would address the issue of gun violence at schools without limiting gun rights.

DeSantis referred to gun reforms passed by his predecessor, GOP Gov. Rick Scott, in the weeks after the February 2018 Parkland, Florida, shooting, in which a gunman killed 17 people.

“We’ve done everything like school resource officers, help with hardening, but also help identify students that are exhibiting really problematic behavior,” DeSantis said. “We’re getting more information about what happened in Perry, but it seems like this student had some serious, serious problems.”

The Florida legislation, passed in March 2018, also raised the age limit for buying a firearm in the state from 18 to 21 and increased the waiting period to buy one to three days.

DeSantis was asked if he supports ending the three-day waiting period, a move currently backed by a Florida state senator. He said he is for instant background checks.

“You shouldn’t have to be on a mandatory waiting period,” DeSantis said. “Instant checks will do the job.”

Haley also focused her answer on mental health and security.

“We have got to deal with the cancer that is mental health,” she said.

She said the country doesn’t have enough mental health therapists, mental health centers and addiction centers, and insurance sometimes doesn’t cover treatment. Haley also called for securing schools the way the country secures airports and courthouses.

Asked if she supports any restrictions on guns, Haley said she is a concealed weapons permit holder and doesn’t support restricting people’s ability to protect themselves.

“We could go and take away a certain kind of gun today, and that would make you feel better today. But a week from now, there’d be another shooting,” she said. “Instead, why don’t we do the hard work and deal with the mental health? If we start to do that, I know that we will see a reduction in what’s happening.”

[raison de arizona]

Haley also called for securing schools the way the country secures airports and courthouses.

Do we really want our children to go through an airport style security line every day? Really? This is what we want for our children? There is no other way to protect them?

[pipistrelle]

Haley also called for securing schools the way the country secures airports and courthouses.

Do we really want our children to go through an airport style security line every day? Really? This is what we want for our children? There is no other way to protect them?

She’s a pandering fool.

[Kendra]

I listened last night. IIRC she also blathered on about the one entrance in and out, but it was late and I could be wrong. Imagine if there was a fire or other emergency and all the kids had to jam into one entrance. I seem to recall some years ago with a fire and only one exit and not everyone made it out...

Edit: CNN is having a debate next week, I hope one of the mods ask her a few questions about this.

[bob]

538 ABC: Who stands to gain if DeSantis drops out? Or Haley? Or Christie?:

We take a look at Republican voters' second choices in the primary.

Executive summary:

If not the quadfectee, then DeSantis or Ramaswamy;
If not DeSantis, then the quadfectee or Haley;
If not Haley, then DeSantis or Christie;
If not Christie, then Haley;
If not Ramaswamy, then the quadfectee.

... aggregating all this, I think Haley has a very decent chance of being the last to drop out.

[bob]

"For completeness": Uygur v. South Carolina (D.S.C. Dkt. No. 23-6879).

Uygur has moved for a preliminary injunction, where the real action will be.

'Tis true: There will be a hearing on January 10 on the injunction.

The various defendants also have moved to dismiss, but those documents are (not yet) publicly available.

[RTH10260]

Interview

‘We are working-class women of color’: the long-shot socialist run for the White House
Claudia de la Cruz of the Party for Socialism and Liberation plans to seize control of the top 100 US corporations and disband the CIA – but recognises it will take a movement to overthrow capitalism

Adam Gabbatt
Sun 7 Jan 2024 13.00 CET

It’s 20 January 2025, the day of the presidential inauguration. After taking the oath of office the new president, a 44-year-old woman, born in the Bronx to Dominican parents, takes her seat in the office and gets to work.

In one of the first acts of Claudia de la Cruz’s presidency, Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk watch on as the government seizes control of Amazon and Tesla, along with all of the top 100 corporations in the US.

And that’s just the start. De la Cruz, America’s first socialist president, goes on to abolish the Senate and the supreme court – there isn’t a specific plan as to how – as well as disbanding the FBI and the CIA and reining in the military.

Barring a major miracle, none of this will happen. The Party for Socialism and Liberation, which sees a socialist US as part of a step towards “the creation of a communist world”, won about 85,000 votes in the 2020 presidential election, slightly more than Kanye West. But De la Cruz, the party’s presidential candidate, is optimistic about this moment in American politics – even if she is realistic about what she and her running mate, Karina Garcia, can achieve at the ballot box next year.

“The only way that historically we’ve been able to transform anything in society is through struggle, through movement,” De la Cruz says.

“Nothing that we have earned as working-class people in society has been something that has been granted to us by the benevolence of the ruling class: not voting rights, not access to the most basic human rights.”

De la Cruz is speaking to the Guardian in a coffee shop in midtown Manhattan. It’s cold outside, and she and Garcia, 38, are each wearing a keffiyeh, the scarf which has long been a symbol of support for Palestine, and has taken on even greater meaning amid the ongoing Israeli assault on Gaza following the 7 October Hamas attacks.



https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... idate-2024

[MN-Skeptic]

I was disgusted when my U.S. Representative - Dean Phillips - decided to run against Biden for the Democratic nomination for President. It's not going well for him -

“Sometimes if you build it, they don’t come,” Dean Phillips told reporters outside of the Manchester DoubleTree hotel this morning, after no voters showed up to his “Government Repair Truck Coffee Conversations” event in 22 degree weather.

[Slim Cognito]

Ha!

[bob]

538 ABC: January debates offer last shot for Trump's opponents to make their case:

DeSantis and Haley will face off in Iowa; Christie set to join them in N.H.

* *

Based on qualification requirements, we already have a very clear idea about the lineups for all three debates, barring a surprise dropout announcement by one of the contenders. Wednesday evening, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley will meet in the first head-to-head debate this cycle in Des Moines, Iowa, ahead of the state's caucuses on Jan. 15. Then on Jan. 18 and Jan. 21, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will likely join DeSantis and Haley in a pair of New Hampshire debates before the state's Jan. 23 primary. Trump is once again planning to skip the debates, content in the knowledge that his refusal to debate even once this cycle has not dinged his polling numbers. And at this juncture, no other candidates look likely to qualify.

* * *

But the 10 percent requirement has made it unlikely that tech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy — or anyone else — will also qualify for the January debates. Unlike Christie, Ramaswamy doesn't have disproportionate strength in Iowa or New Hampshire to help garner qualifying state-level polls: He's polling at about 5 to 7 percent in Iowa, New Hampshire and nationally. Anticipating that he wouldn't qualify for the Iowa event, Ramaswamy attacked CNN and claimed the debate would be "the most boring in modern history." And considering Ramaswamy trails Haley by about 10 points for third place in Iowa, it also appears he's a long shot to make the New Hampshire debate based on a top-three finish in the leadoff caucuses. (Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson is also still technically in the race, but he hasn't qualified for a debate since August.)

[bob]

538 ABC: What if Biden or Trump suddenly leaves the 2024 race?:

How each party could replace its front-runner if he drops out unexpectedly.

Executive summary: "It depends" ... on when. Different rules/scenarios for:

Now until Super Tuesday;
Super Tuesday until of end primaries;
End of primaries until convention;
Convention until Election Day;
Election Day until Electoral College voting;
Electoral College voting until inauguration.*

* Reasonable minds might divide that into "Electoral College voting until Congress' certification" and "Congress' certification until inauguration." Because, yaknow, recent-ish events.

[raison de arizona]

<insert pithy comment about Iowa here>

[MN-Skeptic]

-
Current condition of Iowa roads per the Iowa Department of Transportation -
-

20240109 Iowa Winter Road Conditions.jpg (238.84 KiB) Viewed 44725 times

[Ben-Prime]

When weather conditions are this bad, it's the fanatics who come out.

So in theory, one could predict a Ramaswamy victory at the caucuses, right?

[neonzx]

When weather conditions are this bad, it's the fanatics who come out.

So in theory, one could predict a Ramaswamy victory at the caucuses, right?

You forgot the /s tag.

[RTH10260]

538 ABC: What if Biden or Trump suddenly leaves the 2024 race?:

How each party could replace its front-runner if he drops out unexpectedly.

Executive summary: "It depends" ... on when. Different rules/scenarios for:

Executive summary: "It depends" ... on when... Depends rules...

[raison de arizona]

Vivek is stymied by the weather.

Due to weather conditions, Vivek Ramaswamy was unable to attend a campaign event in Pella, IA in person. He did, however, join via iPad.

[neonzx]

LOL.

He can't deal with a bit of snow but he thinks he can be President?

[bob]

Post & Courier: Federal judge rejects Turkey-born pundit’s bid to get on SC presidential ballot:

A federal judge denied a request by a left-wing pundit born in Istanbul to Turkish parents to appear on the South Carolina Democratic presidential primary ballot, rejecting Cenk Uygur’s argument that the 14th Amendment overrode the natural-born-citizen clause of the Constitution.

U.S. District Judge Joseph Anderson ruled from the bench Jan. 10 he was not convinced the equal protection clause of the Constitution, or the due process rights afforded in the Fifth Amendment, effectively repealed the constitutional requirement the president be a natural-born citizen.

* * *

Uygur told reporters after the ruling he will appeal to the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals.

And how is Uygur taking the news?:

Dude increasingly sounds like a birther.

Oh:

Proceedings held before Honorable Joseph F Anderson, Jr: Motion Hearing held on 1/10/2024. Court converts Plaintiffs' 2 Motion for TRO to a motion for preliminary injunction; motion denied. Court grants 37 Motion to Dismiss filed by Mark Hammond; grants 39 Motion to Dismiss filed by South Carolina, Alan Wilson; and grants 42 Motion to Dismiss filed by Henry McMaster. Written order to follow.

Yeah, the judge sounded super compelled.

And Uygur isn't getting his $20k back, either.