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Gettable Senate Seats

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Re: Gettable Senate Seats

#26

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer »

Lt. Colonel Root Beer just before departing for a sekrit mission?
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Re: Gettable Senate Seats

#27

Post by Luke »

Hooray for Lt Col Root Beer! :dance: A new Root Beer or Biscuit photo makes it a great day! Evildoers beware, Root Beer is on it! TRL is right, looks like a mission. This changes everything about the KY Senate race. After the 699th chased The Spork out of KY, anything is possible :dog:

Some grifter is saying Sen John Kennedy is "losing" which is ridiculous. But hey, if they waste money on that race, less for others.
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Re: Gettable Senate Seats

#28

Post by Gregg »

He might get less than 75%. Might
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Re: Gettable Senate Seats

#29

Post by bob »

If the goal is gettable seats (as opposed to defending already gotten seats), then North Carolina (Beasley-Budd) is looking increasingly vulnerable.

And perhaps more valuable than Pennsylvania, which is basically becoming "destined to be gotten." That is, donations to Pennsylvania might just be rubble- bouncing running up the score.
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Re: Gettable Senate Seats

#30

Post by Gregg »

Ya know, I'm all sunshine, rainbows and unicorns here, but it is not inconceivable that if the combination of the abortion ruling, very good press from the J6 Committee, a possible string of indictments and the Republican's letting Trump score them own goals in the way of whack a mole candidates he hand picked, that the Democrats might have as many as 55 seats in the next Senate.

:dance:

doing the math

pickups...

OH
PA
NC
WI
Missouri (hmm,,, MI is Michigan, MS Mississippi so what is Missouri?)

Also,

FL where Marco Rubio just might be stupid enough to lose
KY where Rand Paul also might have said one stupid thing too many and besides, losing to Ron Johnson for Stupidest Republican Senator doesn't help.
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Re: Gettable Senate Seats

#31

Post by northland10 »

Gregg wrote: Fri Aug 12, 2022 8:07 pm Missouri (hmm,,, MI is Michigan, MS Mississippi so what is Missouri?)
MO
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Re: Gettable Senate Seats

#32

Post by Gregg »

Doh... I knew that
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Re: Gettable Senate Seats

#33

Post by Ben-Prime »

The cynic in me, of course, says that this is why Joe Manchin has decided to do some image rehabilitation with the latest round of Senatorial good news: Once the margin become 52-48, he and Sinema are useless appendages.
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Re: Gettable Senate Seats

#34

Post by Luke »

Not saying gettable, but a really terrific ad and who knows with how Kansas voted.

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This is one hell of an ad from the Democrat running US Senate in South Dakota. The question is whether people will watch it and share it.

This is Democrat @BrianBengs. He has 32K followers. Please give him a follow, retweet and support him. Given what we saw recently in Kansas and this week with Republicans bailing on TV buys let’s compete everywhere:
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Re: Gettable Senate Seats

#35

Post by Luke »

Latest Senate charts from 538: Aug 17 -- 62% chance Democrats keep the Senate. :dog:

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Re: Gettable Senate Seats

#36

Post by Dr. Ken »

I notice they're projecting 51 seats as more likely.

Another poll with Rubio down
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Re: Gettable Senate Seats

#37

Post by bob »

Dr. Ken wrote: Wed Aug 17, 2022 6:39 am I notice they're projecting 51 seats as more likely.
Yeah: 538 is now saying a one-seat pickup is the most likely outcome (barely; the second most likely outcome is a zero-seat net pickup, that is, a continued 50-50 tie).

In other words, the Democrats get Pennsylvania, defend their seats (Arizona, Nevada, Georgia), but don't get Wisconsin, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, etc.
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Re: Gettable Senate Seats

#38

Post by Dr. Ken »

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Re: Gettable Senate Seats

#39

Post by Ben-Prime »

bob wrote: Wed Aug 17, 2022 3:13 pm
Dr. Ken wrote: Wed Aug 17, 2022 6:39 am I notice they're projecting 51 seats as more likely.
Yeah: 538 is now saying a one-seat pickup is the most likely outcome (barely; the second most likely outcome is a zero-seat net pickup, that is, a continued 50-50 tie).

In other words, the Democrats get Pennsylvania, defend their seats (Arizona, Nevada, Georgia), but don't get Wisconsin, North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, etc.
Even a one-seat pickup lessens the Manchema Effect.
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As round and round we run;
And the truth shall ever come uppermost,
And justice shall be done.

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Re: Gettable Senate Seats

#40

Post by SuzieC »

New Marquette poll in Wisconsin: Barnes 51% Johnson 44%.
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Re: Gettable Senate Seats

#41

Post by Dr. Ken »

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Re: Gettable Senate Seats

#42

Post by Luke »

Dang! Lt Col Root Beer is turning the screws on Mitch McConnell. Thank you Root Beer, and to the 699th!
McConnell’s grim 2022 expectation-setting
Analysis by Aaron Blake Staff writer August 18, 2022 at 5:40 p.m. EDT

The expectations-setting for the 2022 midterm elections is off to an early start, and this entry is a doozy. In an appearance back in his home state of Kentucky, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) downplayed the odds of Republicans reclaiming the Senate — and, by extension, him reclaiming the title of majority leader. In doing so, he suggested “candidate quality” was a key factor. “I think there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate,” McConnell said, according to NBC News. “Senate races are just different — they’re statewide, candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.” McConnell added: “Right now, we have a 50-50 Senate and a 50-50 country, but I think when all is said and done this fall, we’re likely to have an extremely close Senate, either our side up slightly or their side up slightly.”

In one way, this merely acknowledges an emerging reality. The generic ballot has tightened in recent weeks, and polls show Republican candidates struggling in some states — such as Arizona, Georgia, Ohio and Pennsylvania — that are key for McConnell’s path back to majority leader. Some prognosticators now have Democrats as favorites to keep their majority. It’s also convenient for McConnell to set the bar lower in this way, such that an adverse outcome on election night is laid at the feet of those specific candidates (or perhaps someone who endorsed them), and is not seen as a referendum on the broader political strength of his party. But viewed another way, it’s pretty striking that McConnell’s even in this position — that is, of having to manage expectations. And it’s abundantly clear he’s not particularly happy with it.

The reason these comments land with some force is that Republicans need to pick up just one seat to regain the majority — and in midterm elections, the vast majority of the time, the party that doesn’t control the White House does gain ground. (Also, consider President Biden’s approval ratings, which have been low enough to make the political terrain especially favorable to the GOP — though those numbers have ticked up slightly, in recent days). Over the past century, the opposition party has gained Senate seats in 18 out of 25 midterm elections. The average shift is four seats to the opposition party. There are, of course, exceptions. But generally they include some unusual factors. The opposition party lost a seat in the 2002 midterms, but that was when the country was still very united after 9/11. And it actually happened again just four years ago, in 2018, when Democrats lost two Senate seats in the only midterm under Donald Trump. But that was in large part because the election map overwhelmingly favored the GOP; each of its takeovers came in red states, and on the same day Democrats gained more than 40 seats in the House, winning back that chamber. The 2022 election does not feature such a lopsided map. Each party has approximately five seats they must worry about defending, with three or four of them in swing states (depending on how you define that).

What it does feature is some underperforming GOP candidates — most of whom were foisted upon the GOP with the help of Donald Trump. High on that list is Ohio’s J.D. Vance, who has trailed in most polls despite the state being increasingly red. Mehmet Oz (Pennsylvania) and Blake Masters (Arizona) both trail by double digits in the FiveThirtyEight polling average, despite running in swing states. And in Georgia, Herschel Walker also trails in most polls after myriad stumbles as a candidate. These are undoubtedly the races McConnell had in mind when he mentioned “candidate quality.” All were backed by Trump. McConnell ultimately endorsed Walker when it looked like he was a shoo-in for the GOP nod. Polling can be unreliable, and it’s possible some of these candidates could soon consolidate support from the GOP base after hard-fought primaries. But in all of these races, Republicans should be in a better position than they currently appear to be — that is, if 2022 is a good midterm year, as is traditional for the opposition party. But it just doesn’t look like one right now. And a McConnell-aligned group pumping $28 million into Ohio, as we learned Thursday, is pretty indicative of where things stand. He doesn’t seem particularly happy about it.
Lt Col Root Beer and Lt Biscuit have made Mitch McConnell unhappy. And he's having to drop $28M in... Ohio. And the 699th is just getting warmed up!
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Re: Gettable Senate Seats

#43

Post by SuzieC »

Where is that article from, orlylicious? I want to share it.
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Re: Gettable Senate Seats

#44

Post by bob »

SuzieC wrote: Thu Aug 18, 2022 7:37 pm Where is that article from, orlylicious? I want to share it.
WaPo.
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Re: Gettable Senate Seats

#45

Post by Luke »

Thank you, Bob, and sorry Suzie! I always put the link underneath, sorry about that! Went right to posting a reply to Epoch Times' story about Mitch -- all the crying MAGAts are saying VOTE HIM OUT of office and stuff, not understanding he was just re-elected again in 2020. Posted some helpful information because that's the great guy I am. :P

Fun fact: Addison is older than Joe Biden. Addison Mitchell McConnell III: February 20, 1942 Joe: November 20, 1942. Addison is already 80, Joe won't be until November.





Haven't gotten any, 'thank you for the information' reply tweets yet, don't know why. :(
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Re: Gettable Senate Seats

#46

Post by Luke »

OK, I have never, ever posted a Tucker Carlson clip. But this is pretty wild. Here's Tucker explaining how and why the GOP is going to LOSE the Midterms. Because there's not enough LAW AND ORDER. CRIME and BORDER SECURITY. Addison McConnell gets a lot of abuse. And who better a guest than vampire Stephen Miller? It still makes me queasy to see Tucker, but interesting to see the panic.

h/ts for the mentions in the Tucker topic. This is the full segment.

"The Red Wave is Not Guaranteed"


Lt Root Beer of the Mighty 699th. Fogbow 💙s titular Mama June in Fogbow's Favourite Show™ Mama June: From Not To Hot! Fogbow's Theme Song™ Edith Massey's "I Got The Evidence!" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5jDHZd0JAg
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Re: Gettable Senate Seats

#47

Post by Suranis »

When Roe got nixed I said that Mitch McConnel was probably getting blind drunk. I was mocked and yelled at.

I am now smug.
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Re: Gettable Senate Seats

#48

Post by pipistrelle »

I don't think anyone's figured out exactly how McConnell got elected in the last election.
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Re: Gettable Senate Seats

#49

Post by Suranis »

Honestly, I think he cheated. These guys project their worst crimes onto Democrats.
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Re: Gettable Senate Seats

#50

Post by bob »

pipistrelle wrote: Fri Aug 19, 2022 8:46 am I don't think anyone's figured out exactly how McConnell got elected in the last election.
Powerful dude, in a solidly red state, who knows where all the bodies are buried?

In 2020, he won over 80% in the primary, and nearly 60% in the general.
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