Fogbow

Gregg wrote: ↑Tue Sep 13, 2022 6:21 pm They're gonna be flying in planes with propellers and using typewriters with ribbons. If you think our motorcar companies have problems with a chip shortage, you just have no idea...

Ahem. Turboprop engines are basically jet engines with a gearbox to turn a propellor. They are fairly sophisticated machines. And all modern turboprop engines I'm aware of have full function FADEC's that control the engine. Those most certainly will be affected by chip supply issues.

IMHO, nothing in Russia will be flying before too much longer. Not even prop aircraft.

the Russian economy is highly dependent on its railway system

which is rapidly collapsing because sanctions have cut off access to a relatively small, but hugely vital replacement part

rail car bearings

The Russian rail system is being starved of rolling stock because of a shortage of roller bearings for their axles. Some 10,000 railway cars were pulled offline because of a bearing shortage in August with another 20,000 expected to be sidelined in the next two months. Repair facilities are unable to repair them because of the shortage. This represents about 20-30% of Russian rail cars of all types.

https://sofrep.com/amp/news/sitrep-russ ... sanctions/

johnpcapitalist wrote: ↑Wed Sep 14, 2022 10:32 pm

Gregg wrote: ↑Tue Sep 13, 2022 6:21 pm They're gonna be flying in planes with propellers and using typewriters with ribbons. If you think our motorcar companies have problems with a chip shortage, you just have no idea...

Ahem. Turboprop engines are basically jet engines with a gearbox to turn a propellor. They are fairly sophisticated machines. And all modern turboprop engines I'm aware of have full function FADEC's that control the engine. Those most certainly will be affected by chip supply issues.

IMHO, nothing in Russia will be flying before too much longer. Not even prop aircraft.

The current state of Russian Commercial Aviation

Someone posted this years ago on the old Fogbow. I've always loved it.

Russia's oil production cut backs have not been enough to support crude oil prices at a level desired by OPEC. Expect OPEC production cuts soon.

Volkonski wrote: ↑Mon Sep 26, 2022 11:47 am Russia's oil production cut backs have not been enough to support crude oil prices at a level desired by OPEC. Expect OPEC production cuts soon.

It's interesting that they're trying to keep oil above $90 in this environment. IIRC, Saudis are profitable when oil's above $60, and they typically love it when the price is above $60 but below Russia's breakeven point, which used to be around $80 or so, so they can put the hurt on Putin. I suspect that Russia's breakeven point is going to be higher going forward as they try to keep their far eastern fields running; they're dependent on Western technology for that and will have to spend up massively to try to get stuff on the black market (if they even can). And the closing of European pipelines means they'll have to discount for shipping costs in tankers (if they can even get oil out of ports in the Baltic or Black Sea areas).

I haven't followed the oil market in any detail for many years, but I would suspect that if Chinese demand is lower than expected, they're trying to start cuts early so they can have everybody ready to help them defend a $60 price. It doesn't require much decline in demand (maybe 5% or 6%) to go from $90 to $60, which happened in the wake of the 2008 global recession. It certainly doesn't take a 30% drop in demand.

Gift article, Thomas Friedman in the failing NY Times about what Putin is doing to Russia.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/30/opin ... =share-url