NATO - what does the future hold?

[RTH10260]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-12/ ... /102589884

An impetuous outburst or a carefully targeted verbal missile?

That was one of the many questions posed on the opening day of the NATO conference in Lithuania after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took to Twitter to describe a possible NATO communique as "unprecedented and absurd".

Other key themes of day one were the way key NATO countries, such as France and the UK, are now providing Ukraine with exactly the military hardware it wants, how the strongman of Türkiye, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has earned himself a reserved seat at the top table, and why there is such strong support for NATO in smaller countries such as Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.

My speculation: the state of the war is such that Russia does not make any further progress. Using cluster bombs in a large defense operation is no longer necessary. Ukraine can get them without endangering the US image, they will hardly be used. The front line is so streched out that there are no masses of infantry and tanks that can sensibly be targeted at this time. I bet a couple or three will hit Bakhmut to clear out the city. Make an impression on the remaining Wagner mercenaries. Just pass on the message that retreat is still an option.

[Dave from down under]

My take

The Russians and Ukrainians have already been using cluster munitions in the war, and will continue to do so - there are fire missions that they are very useful for (both in defence and offence).

The US has a stockpile of cluster munitions that are nearing their use by date - might as well have them used on the Russians.
Unlike the Russian & Ukranian cluster munition the US ones have a failure to detonate as designed of the Bomblets of ~1%, yes this will be a problem for generations of Ukrainians - but so too is unexploded "normal" munitions, mines, etc, etc.

Ukraine can leverage this US offer to get more standard ammunition from other countries and the US Congress, by offering not to take those US cluster munitions.

The faster Ukraine wins the war the fewer Ukrainians will be maimed/die.. if it means more Russians are maimed/die along the way - that is on the Russians.

War is hell, horror and waste.

[Volkonski]

The GOP needs to firmly reject MTG's anti-NATO amendment.

Then they need to reject MTG.

She gives aid and comfort to the Russians.

She must become a pariah.

[Dave from down under]

She is just following orders...

[shannon]

The GOP needs to firmly reject MTG's anti-NATO amendment.

Then they need to reject MTG.

She gives aid and comfort to the Russians.

She must become a pariah.

The entire GOP is pretty much owned by the Kremlin right now, MtG and her fellow seditionists are just more active in promoting the pro-russian, anti-democracy propaganda

[raison de arizona]

Seriously, once that group of GOP congress critters went to Russia to celebrate the Fourth of July without any pushback, the writing was clearly on the wall.

[raison de arizona]

Insurance.

65-28: Senate approved an amendment by Virginia Democratic Senator Tim Kaine to the 2024 defense policy bill to require Senate approval to suspend, terminate, or withdraw from NATO. 60 votes were needed.

[Volkonski]

West Invites Armenia To Join NATO; Russia Concerned With Growing Alliance, Military Drills With The US

https://www.eurasiantimes.com/after-ukr ... concerned/

Russia has voiced its concerns regarding Armenia’s plans to conduct a joint military exercise with the United States, with many interpreting this exercise as the latest indication of the former Soviet republic moving away from Moscow.

On September 6, Armenia announced its plans to host a joint military drill with the United States next week. The exercise, Eagle Partner 2023, is scheduled from September 11 to September 20 at Armenia’s Zar training center.

Following this development, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov conveyed to reporters that the news regarding Armenia’s intention to hold a joint military exercise with the United States is “alarming.”

He further said that Moscow will thoroughly analyze and monitor the situation.

“When it comes to the drills — of course, it causes concern, especially in the current situation. Therefore, we will deeply analyze this news and monitor the situation,” Peskov said.



Additionally, on September 4, Gunther Fehlinger, the European Committee for NATO Enlargement Chair, called on Armenia to consider becoming a part of the North Atlantic Alliance.

Subsequently, on the same day, Armenian Deputy Foreign Minister Vahan Kostanyan responded that Armenia had been actively collaborating with NATO across multiple formats and was ready to continue this process.

Nevertheless, the development poses a considerable concern for Russia, which is expected to raise eyebrows and potentially ignite significant irritation within the Russian government.

[John Thomas8]

[W. Kevin Vicklund]

My co-worker (whom I am mentoring) is from Armenia. She'll be very excited to hear about this.

[Volkonski]

Slovakia elections: Liberals narrowly ahead against pro-Moscow party - exit polls

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-6 ... gn=KARANGA

Liberals have a slender lead in Slovakia's elections over a pro-Moscow party led by populist former PM Robert Fico, exit polls suggest.

The pro-Moscow party, Smer-SD, was expected to win, but polls suggest its popularity has fallen recently.

Smer has pledged an immediate end to military support for Ukraine.

Despite the exit polls, Smer is leading with one third of the votes counted and some analysts say it could still scrape to victory.

[Volkonski]

Oh dear.

CNN:
Pro-Russian politician wins Slovakia’s parliamentary election

The party of Slovakia’s former Prime Minister Robert Fico, an openly pro-Russian politician, has won the country’s parliamentary election, although it will need a coalition partner to govern.

[Ben-Prime]

Oh dear.

CNN:
Pro-Russian politician wins Slovakia’s parliamentary election

The party of Slovakia’s former Prime Minister Robert Fico, an openly pro-Russian politician, has won the country’s parliamentary election, although it will need a coalition partner to govern.

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Bullet ... dodged. So to speak.

[pipistrelle]

This is what concerns me, and I don't think it's just Europe.

Andrew C Laufer, Esq
@lauferlaw
·
2h
This is more dangerous, more insidious than a Russian invasion of NATO. The slow creep of authoritarianism across Europe. Russia conquering nations w/o firing a shot via weaponized propaganda and active measures. They’re able to place their chosen politicians in power by…
Quote

NEXTA
@nexta_tv
·
4h
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor #Orban congratulated pro-Russian #Slovak politician Robert #Fico on his victory in the parliamentary elections.

[Volkonski]

NATO Freezes Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe

https://www.voanews.com/a/nato-freezes- ... 45262.html

NATO has suspended operations for the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, a key Cold War era security pact, in response to Russia pulling out of the agreement.

The CFE includes many of NATO's 31 member countries and was aimed at limiting the size of Cold War rivals' forces at or near mutual borders.

Russia formally withdrew from the treaty and blamed the United States, alleging that the U.S. undermined post-Cold War security by expanding the NATO military alliance.

NATO responded by freezing operations for the agreement on Tuesday, saying it wouldn't be feasible for the treaty to exist where allied parties abide by it and Russia does not.

Many NATO allies condemned the action taken by Russia.

"Allies condemn Russia's decision to withdraw from the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), and its war of aggression against Ukraine which is contrary to the Treaty's objectives," NATO said in a statement.

Russia's withdrawal from CFE is the latest in a series of Russian termination of several security agreements involving the U.S. and Russia.

The Kremlin has already revoked its participation in the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and the New START treaty, an arms control pact.

Both the United States and Russia pulled out of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019, with each country citing violations from the other as grounds for their withdrawal.

[Volkonski]

Russia Issues Ominous Warning About War With NATO

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-warning ... ov-1848233

Russian officials have routinely insinuated that Russia could attack NATO members for providing Ukraine with assistance in the ongoing war. Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said in December 2022 that such countries could be "legitimate military targets."

Ryabkov was asked whether he expects an armed conflict between Russia and NATO in the future, should relations remain as strained as they are now.

"It depends on the North Atlantic Alliance. NATO has a choice. As we already demonstrated, we are ready to protect our national interests by all means," said Ryabkov.

Ryabkov said it would be a "dangerous path" to "encroach endlessly" on Russia's interests and said that "the people who continue to test our strength, they must have believed that there was no limit to their own rate-raising game, but they may find themselves among the total losers in this arena."

[Volkonski]

NATO 'Troops' at Russia Border 'Excessive': Kremlin

https://www.newsweek.com/nato-troops-ru ... in-1847918

Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman Dmitry Peskov was responding to an earlier post by the head of Poland's National Security Bureau, Jacek Siewiera, which said Warsaw would send "a team of military advisers" to Finland in response to "an official request for allied support in the face of a hybrid attack on the Finnish border."

The team "will provide on-site knowledge on border security, also in operational terms," said Siewiera in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter.

Finland's Ministry of the Interior told Newsweek that "Poland is not sending 'military advisors' to Finland," and that "news stories about this are not true." The ministry didn't comment on the veracity of Siewiera's social media post when asked.

Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo announced last week that the country would close its border crossing points with Russia to curb the flow of asylum seekers. The Finnish Border Guard said that about 3,000 people had been crossing into the country per day.

[Volkonski]

Hey, Putin-

NATO member-to-be Sweden and the US sign defense deal
On the brink of joining NATO, Sweden has signed a defense cooperation agreement with Washington that will allow the United States access to all of the military bases across the Scandinavian country, saying the deal would bolster regional security

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... -105413931

On the brink of joining NATO, Sweden has signed a defense cooperation agreement with Washington that will allow the United States access to all of the military bases across the Scandinavian country, saying the deal would bolster regional security.

Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson said the deal, signed in Washington Tuesday, “will create better conditions for Sweden to be able to receive support from the United States in the event of a war or crisis.”

Jonson told Swedish broadcaster SVT that it didn’t mean that “all 17 locations will be used“ but ”where it is most important from a military perspective for them to be able to store defense equipment, for example.”

The deal was signed at the Pentagon by Jonson and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin who said that by adding the capabilities of the Swedish armed forces to NATO, ”we will get even stronger.”

The deal “sends a strong signal that we remain committed to addressing security challenges together,” Austin said.

[Volkonski]

Putin warns of problems with neighboring Finland after West ‘dragged it into NATO’

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/17/world/pu ... index.html

Finland’s ascension to NATO marked a major shift in the security landscape in northern Europe, and added some 1,300 kilometers (830 miles) to the alliance’s frontier with Russia.

It was also a blow for President Putin, who has long warned against NATO expansion.

“They (the West) took Finland and dragged it into NATO! Why, did we have any disputes with Finland? All disputes, including those of a territorial nature in the middle of the 20th Century, have all been resolved long ago,” Putin said in an interview published on Sunday.

“There were no problems, but now there will be, because we will now create the Leningrad military district there and definitely concentrate military units there,” Putin added in the interview by Russian state broadcaster Russia 1.

Putin also dismissed as “complete nonsense” remarks from US President Joe Biden, who earlier this month warned that Putin would “keep going” if he takes Ukraine, suggesting that Russia could eventually attack a NATO ally and draw US troops into conflict.

The Russian leader said Russia “has no reason, no interest, no geopolitical interest, neither economic, nor political, nor military, to fight with NATO countries,” adding Moscow does not have any territorial claims in NATO countries.

[RTH10260]

Putin warns of problems with neighboring Finland after West ‘dragged it into NATO’

https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/17/world/pu ... index.html

“There were no problems, but now there will be, because we will now create the Leningrad military district there and definitely concentrate military units there,” Putin added in the interview by Russian state broadcaster Russia 1.

The Ukrainians may be happy IFF Putin follows thru, though building up a coherrent military group will take several years to accomplish, just thinking of the required infrastructure and resources. And at this time the cannon fodder is needed at other regions of Russia. Russia just used up the number of soldiers it had deployed to make the initial incursion into Crimea and Ukraine.

[Volkonski]

Sweden Issues Ominous Warning to Citizens

https://www.newsweek.com/sweden-issues- ... ns-1858841

In May 2022, Sweden and Finland, known for their neutrality, announced that they would join NATO in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine earlier that year. While Finland officially joined the alliance in April 2023, Sweden's bid to join faced obstacles when Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan criticized the nation's alleged inaction against Islamophobia, calling it a "red line." Hungary has also expressed concerns about Swedish membership.

Erdoğan later gave his approval for Sweden's NATO accession, though the Turkish Grand National Assembly still needs to give it the green light. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán said late last year that his country was in no hurry to approve Sweden's bid.

However, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told German news agency DPA last week that Sweden has made all necessary concessions, predicting that the country will be approved as NATO's 32nd member by its next summit, set for July in Washington, D.C.

Sweden's entry into the alliance would boost NATO's regional impact, giving all five Nordic nations near-total control of "NATO Lake," a reference to the strategic importance of the Baltic Sea. Military airpower provided to NATO on Sweden's behalf would be a challenge to Russian forces in the sea, experts previously told Newsweek.

Now, nearly two years into the Russia-Ukraine conflict and amid the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, Swedish citizens are being asked to be more cautious and prepared than ever.

[MN-Skeptic]

Kyle Griffin
@kylegriffin1

ANKARA, Turkey (AP) - Turkey's parliament approves Sweden's membership in NATO, lifting a key hurdle to its entry into the military alliance.

[Suranis]

All it needs is Victor Orban's vote. Good luck with that.

[much ado]

All it needs is Victor Orban's vote. Good luck with that.

Maybe someone will pay him off.

[W. Kevin Vicklund]

Putin already has.