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NATO - what does the future hold?

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Re: NATO - what does the future hold?

#51

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Re: NATO - what does the future hold?

#52

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#53

Post by Volkonski »

The nine nations are Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.

“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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#54

Post by johnpcapitalist »

Volkonski wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 11:08 am The nine nations are Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.

Wonder what all those countries have in common that Germany, France, Italy and others who make noises about sending help to Ukraine but who haven't followed through on their promises don't... Could it be that they have lived under Russian domination and know what would await Ukraine if they don't kick Russia out? Gosh, hard to figure this puzzle out...
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#55

Post by Dave from down under »

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-12-02/ ... /101725022

Finland's Prime Minister Sanna Marin says 'we don't want to ever again see war on Finnish soil by Russia'

Finland's Prime Minister Sanna Marin says the Baltic nation feels great sympathy for Ukraine because her people know what it's like to be at war with Russia.

"We also have a long history with Russia, and now we're joining NATO because we don't want to ever again see war on Finnish soil by Russia," she told 7.30.

Russia and Finland were last at war with each other during World War II.
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#56

Post by Sam the Centipede »

johnpcapitalist wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 11:34 am Wonder what all those countries have in common that Germany, France, Italy and others who make noises about sending help to Ukraine but who haven't followed through on their promises don't...
I think that's unfair: those countries are supplying military aid, but not always making a big fuss about it. They could do more, but that's a different point. Germany has been weird; I think it's complex there. Remember too that East Germany was a Soviet satellite.

Your underlying point about the countries that have suffered the Russian terror being most strident about the need to stop or contain Russian fascism, imperialism and genocide is undeniably correct, i agree.

Where it will all end? The population of Russia seems disturbingly complicit in the war. When Russians complain it tends to be about how the war is being prosecuted and the need for better equipment and training for their soldiers to fight the evil West and complete the suppression or genocide of their neighbors, not about the lack of morality or sense in the whole misbegotten ego trip of Putin and the russofascists.

If Russia sees sense and withdraws back inside its own borders, what is to prevent them from rearming, retraining, applying the lessons learnt from this invasion and starting again?
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#57

Post by W. Kevin Vicklund »

Sam the Centipede wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:07 am
johnpcapitalist wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 11:34 am Wonder what all those countries have in common that Germany, France, Italy and others who make noises about sending help to Ukraine but who haven't followed through on their promises don't...
I think that's unfair: those countries are supplying military aid, but not always making a big fuss about it. They could do more, but that's a different point. Germany has been weird; I think it's complex there. Remember too that East Germany was a Soviet satellite.

Your underlying point about the countries that have suffered the Russian terror being most strident about the need to stop or contain Russian fascism, imperialism and genocide is undeniably correct, i agree.

Where it will all end? The population of Russia seems disturbingly complicit in the war. When Russians complain it tends to be about how the war is being prosecuted and the need for better equipment and training for their soldiers to fight the evil West and complete the suppression or genocide of their neighbors, not about the lack of morality or sense in the whole misbegotten ego trip of Putin and the russofascists.

If Russia sees sense and withdraws back inside its own borders, what is to prevent them from rearming, retraining, applying the lessons learnt from this invasion and starting again?
Including Ukraine as a member of NATO.
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#58

Post by Sam the Centipede »

W. Kevin Vicklund wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 10:35 am
Sam the Centipede wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:07 am If Russia sees sense and withdraws back inside its own borders, what is to prevent them from rearming, retraining, applying the lessons learnt from this invasion and starting again?
Including Ukraine as a member of NATO.
Assuming rational actors… :(

Let's hope!
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#59

Post by johnpcapitalist »

Sam the Centipede wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:07 am
johnpcapitalist wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 11:34 am Wonder what all those countries have in common that Germany, France, Italy and others who make noises about sending help to Ukraine but who haven't followed through on their promises don't...
I think that's unfair: those countries are supplying military aid, but not always making a big fuss about it. They could do more, but that's a different point. Germany has been weird; I think it's complex there. Remember too that East Germany was a Soviet satellite.
Things have changed from when I wrote the original post in October. Germany is still dragging their feet on some equipment, but Italy and France are starting to step up. They were hesitant initially to start moving away from Russian oil as aggressively as others were.
Sam the Centipede wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:07 am If Russia sees sense and withdraws back inside its own borders, what is to prevent them from rearming, retraining, applying the lessons learnt from this invasion and starting again?
Russia will do a fine job of keeping itself from rearming and from improving. For the last 30 years, the country has been a kleptocracy, from top to bottom. Corruption is not limited to the Putin cronies at the top skimming off billion-dollar chunks.

Everything to do with the military is built on corruption. Those tens of thousands of tanks in storage that had the West cowed? Now we know that the low-level officers in charge of keeping them in operating condition were using their troops to loot copper wire or parts and sell them on the black market. Another: soldiers are paid in cash, and organized crime gangs have bribed the base commanders and security to allow them on the base on payday to rob troops of their salaries. The culture of corruption is so massively entrenched in all levels of society that it's likely beyond the point of no return.

Could Russia rebuild their armaments industry without Western parts? Not likely. Astute readers will know that a lot of the Western semiconductor chips in Russian (and Iranian) weapons are low-cost dual use technologies, so it'll be hard to keep that stuff out of Russian hands. With that type of chip, you can build cheap disposable weapons like the junky drones Russia got from Iran. Those consist of commodity FPGA's barely more sophisticated than Raspberry Pi's.

However, specialized military semiconductors such as those needed for IR seekers, radars, etc. are tightly controlled, and they won't be able to get those. More importantly, the passage of the CHIPS act earlier this year creates substantially tighter controls over semiconductor manufacturing equipment and over the ability to deploy engineers in unfriendly countries, including both China and Russia. I'm not sure how much domestic semiconductor manufacturing ability Russia has today, but without repairing Western machines, whatever manufacturing capacity they have today will soon disappear when the machines start breaking. And in a semiconductor fab, the machines break all the time.

Another area where Russia will fail is in aircraft. They began production of the Su-57 stealth fighter in 2009, but have only produced about 6 aircraft that are actually capable of entering into service in that time. Part of the problem there is the engines. Jet engines are incredibly hard to manufacture. It takes decades to develop an indigenous jet engine manufacturing capability. The Chinese have been at it for 20+ years and still have a long ways to go. While the Russians can build some engines, cutting edge stuff is going to be very difficult for them without Western machine tools. And those are, like semi manufacturing equipment, off the market.

The current situation has piled on top of an already massive demographic hole where there are too few males of military age to support the "cannon fodder" mobilization that started recently and that will continue. There are only about 2 million males from 20-30, a consequence of the post-Soviet baby bust. Many of them have alcohol and drug problems or other health problems. Still more are barely literate, in the wake of the educational system collapse after Communism fell. They'll have a hard time filling out platoons of grunts, and they'll have an even harder time filling out platoons of high-skilled wrench-turners to keep the equipment going.

The army has been something that got far less respect than the US army commands among American citizens today. It wasn't even an attractive employer of last resort. So the few remaining males that are appropriate for military service will work even harder to make sure they stay hidden from recruiters looking to press-gang them into the army. That will not only keep the army understaffed, but it will keep them from engaging in productive work. 20 years from now, the few remaining 20-somethings will be in their mid-40s but so few of them will have progressed in career attainment that they can engage in skilled labor that economies depend on that you'll have a difficult time sustaining even mid-skill or low-skill manufacturing or operating businesses (think: locomotive engineers, bridge contractors, etc.).

The US isn't going to let up on the sanctions even if Putin announces a full retreat, unconditional surrender, and payment of hundreds of billions of dollars in reparations tomorrow. They're going to want to ensure that Russia doesn't pull a Phoenix-from-the-ashes move in some unanticipated way in a generation.

China won't bail them out. China is mad that Russia's incompetence gave the West plenty of chances to perfect economic warfare that can, with the stroke of a pen, cripple the Chinese economy even more than it is hurting Russia. And the fact that we no longer fear Russian attacks on NATO means that Xi no longer can use Russia-Ukraine as a distraction while he tries to take over Taiwan. Putin's incompetence screwed China over. So that lovey-dovey alliance announced just before the Ukraine invasion is not worth the paper it's printed on.

China's incentive now is to let Russia wither on the vine. That gives the Chinese either bargaining power to get raw materials out of Russia for a big discount (they can be transported to China by train without risk of Western interference, so China is the only customer Russia will have), or they will wait for Russia to weaken and will just invade and annex everything east of the Urals to get access to the metals and minerals they need in their economy. Logistically, the West couldn't ally with Russia to defend it against China even if it wanted to. (The West would shut the Chinese economy down if they did invade Russia, but that's a different discussion for a different day).

So Russia is headed towards a future with no people, no economy, no military, and no allies. It's pretty hard to dig out of a hole that deep.
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#60

Post by much ado »

But lots of nukes...
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#61

Post by Sam the Centipede »

much ado wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:53 pm But lots of nukes...
An analysis I read suggested that using battlefield nuclear weapons wouldn't be militarily productive for the Russians and that they know that – I have no knowledge on the matter so I can't assess how plausible it was. Firing long range rockets would obviously risk all sorts of horrors; my guess is massive targeting of industrial and military sites, but, again, I know nothing.

So it seems that yes, it is wider to be worried about the presence of nuclear weapons, but no, it is unlikely that they will be used.

But there's a samovar full of crazy, definitely not good.
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#62

Post by Sam the Centipede »

johnpcapitalist wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 5:30 pm :snippity:
I don't disagree with your general or specific analysis except that I think it underestimates Russia's resilience, especially if the population engages with the Greater Rus ideal and the notion that the West is out to destroy Mother Russia. The latter will certainly appear to be true to Russians if severe sanctions are effective and NATO countries have (or are beloved to have) weapons targeted at Russia.

China's attitude will be interesting and significant. They will be analysing what they see and adjusting their thoughts on Taiwan appropriately. I don't know how totemic Taiwan is to China's rulers, whether it would be nice to have back if that's easy or instead a deep and hurtful affront that it is not under Beijing's rule.

But outside that I agree with your general thrust (if I have understood!!) that China will take a pragmatic approach focused on maintaining its status and economic relations. Russia means little to China except insofar as it is useful.

The population of Russia must be the key to a longer term resolution. Germany understood the "never again" rule after its second world war in fifty years killed more millions of people. But in Russia their nazis won – the Stalinists – so they have not yet rejected fascism, irredentism and notions of racial superiority. Russia needs its younger population to say "Nyet. Nyet. Nyet." and look for a peaceful productive future, whether in some form of self-isolation or as members of the international community.
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#63

Post by RTH10260 »

johnpcapitalist wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 5:30 pm
Sam the Centipede wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:07 am
johnpcapitalist wrote: Sun Oct 02, 2022 11:34 am :snippity:
:snippity:
Things have changed from when I wrote the original post in October. Germany is still dragging their feet on some equipment, but Italy and France are starting to step up. They were hesitant initially to start moving away from Russian oil as aggressively as others were.
:snippity:
Germany has some problems iirc with sending a certain tank type that relies heavily on an ammunition built in and or licensed from Switzerland. As part of the Swiss long standing (and sometimes shaky) policy of not allowing purchased war time supplies to be forwarded by the initial buyer, as it was intended to be for self defensive use only (part of the purchase agreement).
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#64

Post by keith »

Has everybody heard about the bird?
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#65

Post by Suranis »

much ado wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:53 pm But lots of nukes...
The problem with Nukes is that even if you have it sealed airtight with nothing to corrode the insides of the rocket or whatever, if you don't process the Nuclear material periodically it will become useless. The very fact of it being radioactive means that the Atoms of the material are splitting and changing into something else, and those atoms are no linger Fissionable and wont participate in a Fission reaction, and worse will probably block Neutrons flying about that are needed for the reaction to happen. So, those new atoms need to be removed periodically.

In short, if you launch a 20 year old perfectly intact Nuclear bomb, it probably wont explode.

How many of those Nukes are therefore useless? I doubt even the Russians know, but I doubt anyone believes their on paper Nuclear capacity is anywhere close to reality.
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#66

Post by keith »

Suranis wrote: Sat Dec 03, 2022 4:42 pm
much ado wrote: Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:53 pm But lots of nukes...
The problem with Nukes is that even if you have it sealed airtight with nothing to corrode the insides of the rocket or whatever, if you don't process the Nuclear material periodically it will become useless. The very fact of it being radioactive means that the Atoms of the material are splitting and changing into something else, and those atoms are no linger Fissionable and wont participate in a Fission reaction, and worse will probably block Neutrons flying about that are needed for the reaction to happen. So, those new atoms need to be removed periodically.

In short, if you launch a 20 year old perfectly intact Nuclear bomb, it probably wont explode.

How many of those Nukes are therefore useless? I doubt even the Russians know, but I doubt anyone believes their on paper Nuclear capacity is anywhere close to reality.
Am i the only one that is a bit uneasy at this kind of talk?

Is it really more comfortable to realize that the Ruskies can, in practice, only kill the planet 10 times over in stead of the theoretical 100 times over?
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#67

Post by RTH10260 »

I guess it's like pilots, they prefer to land safely with their passengers, the generals prefer to end their career safely in a dacha outside Moscow rather than evaporate with their troops in some nuclear incident.
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#68

Post by much ado »

I think that when it gets to the point that Russia needs some income from foreign trade, the West should offer to purchase the nukes in order to decommission them. That way, Russia gets some $, and the West removes the threat of a nuclear holocaust.

Any chance that would work?
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#69

Post by RTH10260 »

You will have to speak with the Russian Mafia. :cantlook:
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Post by Volkonski »

Reuters :verified:
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Sweden says Turkey is asking too much over NATO application http://reut.rs/3QldxRH
Finland and Sweden signed a three-way agreement with Turkey in 2022 aimed at overcoming Ankara's objections to their membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

They applied in May to join NATO in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but Turkey objected and accused the countries of harbouring militants, including from the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party

One sticking point has been extraditions of people Turkey regards as terrorists. Ankara expressed disappointment with a decision late last year from Sweden's top court to stop a request to extradite a journalist with alleged links to Islamic scholar Fetullah Gulen, blamed by Turkey for an attempted coup.
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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#71

Post by Volkonski »

AFP News Agency
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Finland's parliament moved closer Tuesday toward accelerating its bid to join NATO, increasing the likelihood that it would leave its neighbour Sweden behind to rapidly enter the trans-Atlantic defence pact.
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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#72

Post by Volkonski »

Finland: Lawmakers greenlight NATO membership

The Finnish parliament has voted overwhelmingly in favor of joining the NATO military alliance. The Nordic nation will need to wait for ratification from Turkey and Hungary but looks set to move ahead of neighbor Sweden.


https://www.dw.com/en/finland-lawmakers ... a-64856622
The parliament voted to accept the terms of the NATO treaty by 184 votes against seven, with one abstention and seven lawmakers being absent.

Finland and Sweden dropped their decades-long policies of military non-alignment last May and applied to join the alliance amid concern about the military threat posed by Russia.

"Russia is not the neighbor we imagined," Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said at the time.
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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#73

Post by Volkonski »

RAF and German jets intercept Russian aircraft near Estonian airspace

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64960706
The two Typhoons were scrambled on Tuesday to intercept an Il-78 Midas refuelling plane flying between St Petersburg and Kaliningrad.

The plane had failed to communicate with air traffic control in Estonia.

The British and German air forces are currently conducting planned joint Nato air policing in the region.

The interception itself was routine, but it is the first time such an operation has been carried out together by the two countries.

The incident comes amid heightened tensions between Nato and Russia over the Russian invasion of Ukraine, although there is no evidence of any link with Tuesday's reported collision between a Russian fighter jet and a US drone over the Black Sea.

After escorting the Midas, the two jets were redirected to intercept an An-148 airliner that was also passing close to Estonian airspace.

The jets are part of the RAF's 140 Expeditionary Air Wing and the German 71 Tactical Air Wing Richthofen.
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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#74

Post by Volkonski »

Ukraine War Bulletins and News
@SocraticEthics@mastodon.online
NATO is discussing the idea of deploying up to 300,000 troops on the border with Russia, — Politico. The newspaper writes that NATO intends to stop the Russian Federation if it decides to take the war beyond the borders of Ukraine. Therefore, the Alliance talked about strengthening its eastern borders and the need to send up to 300,000 soldiers to the borderline.

https://mastodon.online/@SocraticEthics ... 2585612618
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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#75

Post by Volkonski »

So Putin has driven previously nonaligned Finland and Sweden into the welcoming arms of the USA. :lol:

Niinistö: Sweden security OK if Finland joins NATO first

https://apnews.com/article/finland-swed ... 387bc1a170
Sweden won’t be in a vulnerable security situation even if Finland joins NATO first, the Finnish president said Sunday, as both Nordic membership candidates negotiate bilateral military pacts with the United States.

“It is possible that Finland joins NATO before Sweden,” Finnish President Sauli Niinistö said in interview published by the Swedish public broadcaster SVT on Sunday. “Should we have refused Turkey’s offer to ratify? That sounds a bit crazy. It would have been a terribly difficult situation if we had said ‘no’ to Ankara.”

Niinistö referred to his Friday visit to Ankara where Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that his government would move forward with ratifying Finland’s NATO application, paving the way for the country to join the military bloc, but wouldn’t ratify Sweden’s bid before disputes between Ankara and Stockholm are solved.

Both Finland and Sweden applied to become NATO members 10 months ago in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, abandoning decades of nonalignment.

NATO requires the unanimous approval of its 30 existing members to expand, and Turkey and Hungary are the only countries that haven’t yet ratified the Nordic duo’s bids.

Should Sweden’s NATO membership talks with Turkey drag on for a long time, many Swedish security policy experts agree it would put Stockholm in a vulnerable military position in the Baltic Sea region.

Niinistö said that Finland, Sweden and Denmark are currently in separate talks with the United States on security matters in an attempt to reach a bilateral military pact similar to what Norway has concluded with Washington before.

“I think that is a big change, almost bigger than NATO membership,” Niinistö said of the ongoing talks with the U.S. when asked what happens to Sweden’s security if talks to join NATO drag on. “It means a lot if we (Nordic countries) all have a direct and a quite similar (military) agreement with the United States.”
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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