Russia Invades Ukraine

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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#26

Post by raison de arizona »

:crying:
Ilya Lozovsky @ichbinilya wrote: Reports that a Ukrainian kindergarten, used as a shelter, was hit. I will not share the images as they’re too graphic. Absent an extremely compelling explanation - hard to imagine what it could be - this is a war crime.

confirmed by defense minister
Christo Grozev @christogrozev wrote: Ukraine plans to submit evidence of Russian artillery hits on a kindergarten and an orphanage to the ICC as an war crimes. https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status ... 9667817472
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#27

Post by raison de arizona »

The Russians have never met a civilian they didn't try to kill, remember Syria?

Picture of the aftermath at the link, the senior man in the car miraculously survived.
Zoomed in, aftermath:
► Show Spoiler
I've seen reports this is fake. Dunno.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#28

Post by raison de arizona »

Jack Detsch @JackDetsch wrote: Russia has lost 2,800 troops, 80 tanks, 516 armored vehicles, 10 airplanes, and 7 helicopters in its invasion of Ukraine: deputy defense minister.

Numbers as of 3pm Ukraine time.

For clarification, this is the Ukrainian deputy defense minister
► Show Spoiler
CNN @CNN wrote: “How long do you think you can hold out?”

“Forever.”

Former Ukrainian President @poroshenko takes up a Kalashnikov rifle alongside civilian defense forces as he speaks to @JohnBerman from the streets of Kyiv.
Video at link: https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1497189957395488778?s=20
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#29

Post by Foggy »

Yeah, so what's worse:

1. The world imposes sanctions but they don't work and Ukraine is conquered and subjected to a brutal dictatorship. Putin successfully annexes Ukraine as part of Russia, ignores the sanctions, and kills any Ukrainians who object. Five years from now it's no longer a subject of discussion in the US.

2. We make the sanctions hurt, we support the Ukrainians with advanced military weapons, and we somehow manage to prevent the Russians from conquering Ukraine. Putin is backed into a corner, desperate and violent and preferring to die (and destroy the planet) rather than be seen as a loser.

:think: :confuzzled:

Whoa, this is a tough one.
The more I learn about this planet, the more improbable it all seems. :confuzzled:
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#30

Post by Chilidog »

raison de arizona wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 10:52 am
Jack Detsch @JackDetsch wrote: Russia has lost 2,800 troops, 80 tanks, 516 armored vehicles, 10 airplanes, and 7 helicopters in its invasion of Ukraine: deputy defense minister.

Numbers as of 3pm Ukraine time.

For clarification, this is the Ukrainian deputy defense minister
► Show Spoiler
CNN @CNN wrote: “How long do you think you can hold out?”

“Forever.”

Former Ukrainian President @poroshenko takes up a Kalashnikov rifle alongside civilian defense forces as he speaks to @JohnBerman from the streets of Kyiv.
Video at link: https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1497189957395488778?s=20
Those are some significant numbers.

Aside from the casualty rate, the Russian equipment isn't holding up too well, is it.

If that many vehicles and tanks have been destroyed, the actual number of casualties is probably higher.

Wait till they start having to deal with IEDs
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#31

Post by Volkonski »

“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#32

Post by raison de arizona »

Foggy wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:25 am Yeah, so what's worse:

1. The world imposes sanctions but they don't work and Ukraine is conquered and subjected to a brutal dictatorship. Putin successfully annexes Ukraine as part of Russia, ignores the sanctions, and kills any Ukrainians who object. Five years from now it's no longer a subject of discussion in the US.

2. We make the sanctions hurt, we support the Ukrainians with advanced military weapons, and we somehow manage to prevent the Russians from conquering Ukraine. Putin is backed into a corner, desperate and violent and preferring to die (and destroy the planet) rather than be seen as a loser.

:think: :confuzzled:

Whoa, this is a tough one.
1.5 Putin installs a puppet government in Ukraine a la Belarus and things continue to limp along, not a full #1, but not #2 either.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#33

Post by Chilidog »

What is the chance that the Russian oligarchy is going to step in over?

"Nothing personal, it's just buisness."
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#34

Post by Suranis »

This is a very good thread on Putin's motivations for invading, looking at things from a domestic standpoint.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1496 ... 26368.html

Twitter thread https://twitter.com/CarrieALee1/status/ ... 5648826368
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#35

Post by neeneko »

Chilidog wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:32 am What is the chance that the Russian oligarchy is going to step in over?

"Nothing personal, it's just buisness."
That is an area to watch. The oligarcs are one of putin's keys to power, they need him and he needs them. If the war saps them of their rewards, they will turn on him, but unless they can get the church (not going to happen) and military (could happen) on their side, he can just wait them out and replace them with new subordinates who will be grateful for their new position. Putin has a pretty big war chest and is still raking money in from oil & natural gas. As long as that is the case, he can either reward or replace them. If personal sanctions annoy them too much, well, those are personal sanctions, and thus, again, they can simply be replaced if they complain too much.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#36

Post by RVInit »

Chilidog wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 11:28 am
raison de arizona wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 10:52 am
Jack Detsch @JackDetsch wrote: Russia has lost 2,800 troops, 80 tanks, 516 armored vehicles, 10 airplanes, and 7 helicopters in its invasion of Ukraine: deputy defense minister.

Numbers as of 3pm Ukraine time.

For clarification, this is the Ukrainian deputy defense minister
► Show Spoiler
CNN @CNN wrote: “How long do you think you can hold out?”

“Forever.”

Former Ukrainian President @poroshenko takes up a Kalashnikov rifle alongside civilian defense forces as he speaks to @JohnBerman from the streets of Kyiv.
Video at link: https://twitter.com/CNN/status/1497189957395488778?s=20
Those are some significant numbers.

Aside from the casualty rate, the Russian equipment isn't holding up too well, is it.

If that many vehicles and tanks have been destroyed, the actual number of casualties is probably higher.

Wait till they start having to deal with IEDs
I was wondering about that myself.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#37

Post by raison de arizona »

max seddon @maxseddon wrote: Ukraine claims it's killed almost 3,000 Russian soldiers in the first 36 hours of the invasion.

As ever, you have to take these things with a grain of salt, but anything even remotely close to that number would be stunning – the US lost 4,431 in two decades in Iraq

Mike Kofman, whose predictions of how this would pan out were eerily accurate, says it may not all be going the way Russia hoped
Michael Kofman @KofmanMichael wrote: The one thing I will add to my earlier thread, is that we should take care making assumptions on how this war will progress based on the opening 24-48 hours. The Russian military clearly tried something. I think it at best yielded mixed results for them. They will adjust.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#38

Post by Chilidog »

So Putin is bringing in the Chechens?

That's not going to end well.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#39

Post by p0rtia »

:brokenheart:

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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#40

Post by MN-Skeptic »

On my way home from shopping, I was thinking about what Trump would have done differently. I realized that he would have gotten the same info re Russia's build-up of military forces at Ukraine's border and the detailed information on when they would have attacked. And he would have sat on it. He wouldn't have warned anyone. Not Ukraine. Not our allies.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#41

Post by Suranis »

Most likely he would have held up the delivery of Anti-tank Missiles and other arms to Ukraine, much like he was doing in 2019. He would also be sending satellite images of Ukraine troop movements to the Russians, and of course hosting the Russian ambassador in fancy galas and banquets.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#42

Post by raison de arizona »

Suranis wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 4:00 pm Most likely he would have held up the delivery of Anti-tank Missiles and other arms to Ukraine, much like he was doing in 2019. He would also be sending satellite images of Ukraine troop movements to the Russians, and of course hosting the Russian ambassador in fancy galas and banquets.
:fingerwag: tfg would have bombed Moscow, just ask the NY Post!
If you move against Ukraine while I’m president,” Trump is said to have told the Russian leader, “I will hit Moscow.”
https://nypost.com/2022/02/22/trump-tal ... ar-a-lago/
:rotflmao:
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#43

Post by Notaperson »

Prominent Russians join protests against Ukraine war amid 1,800 arrests
Prominent Russians shocked by the invasion of Ukraine have gone public with their opposition to the war, despite the professional and personal risks that come with dissent on such a sensitive issue in Russia.

More than 1,800 people were arrested at rallies across the country on Thursday night as prominent Russians from the worlds of entertainment, business and journalism have risked their livelihoods in order to speak out.

When Elena Chernenko, the veteran diplomatic correspondent for Kommersant newspaper, found out that Russia was invading Ukraine, she said she was stunned.
:snippity:
After Putin announced the military operation, she penned an open letter condemning the attack on Ukraine. “War has never been and will never be a method of conflict resolution and there are no excuses for it,” she wrote. Nearly 300 journalists have signed, including representatives of state-run media.

In retaliation, she revealed she has been expelled from the diplomatic pool, which she has covered for more than 11 years, for “unprofessionalism”.
:snippity:
Even the family members of some of Russia’s richest businessmen have gone public in their opposition to war. The daughter of Roman Abramovich posted an Instagram picture that read “Putin wants a war with Ukraine,” crossing out the word Russia. “The biggest and most successful lie of Kremlin’s propaganda is that most Russian stand with Putin.”

And on Friday afternoon, Lisa Peskova, the daughter of Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, took to Instagram to post a simple message on a black background: #Нетвойне, or “No to war.” So did Tatyana Yumasheva, the daughter of Boris Yeltsin.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... ests-putin
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#44

Post by Suranis »

raison de arizona wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 4:07 pm
:fingerwag: tfg would have bombed Moscow, just ask the NY Post!
If you move against Ukraine while I’m president,” Trump is said to have told the Russian leader, “I will hit Moscow.”
https://nypost.com/2022/02/22/trump-tal ... ar-a-lago/
:rotflmao:
With what? Valentine cards? Tinder requests? Pictures of his junk?
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#45

Post by neeneko »

MN-Skeptic wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 3:51 pm On my way home from shopping, I was thinking about what Trump would have done differently. I realized that he would have gotten the same info re Russia's build-up of military forces at Ukraine's border and the detailed information on when they would have attacked. And he would have sat on it. He wouldn't have warned anyone. Not Ukraine. Not our allies.
Yeah, he probably would have sat on it, or even pushed for NATO agreeing to never admit Ukraine. I still suspect all this was put in motion with the expectation of Trump still being president and now Putin is kinda painted into a corner.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#46

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Thread.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#47

Post by raison de arizona »

This is not the only report today I've seen of Russian soldiers trying to blend in as Ukrainians.
Adam Parkhomenko @AdamParkhomenko wrote: I spoke with someone in Ukraine just now who said Russian soldiers are now invading homes desperate for food and dry clothes. They are hungry and want to look like civilians.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#48

Post by Suranis »

raison de arizona wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 10:49 am I've seen reports this is fake. Dunno.
Snopes says its real.

https://www.snopes.com/news/2022/02/25/ ... -kyiv-car/

Honestly, stuff like this happens all the time even for good guys. This is stuff Tanks are designed to do, and I don't think the Tank driver would be able to see anyone in the car. Not that he would care much, admittedly.
raison de arizona wrote: Fri Feb 25, 2022 4:59 pm
Adam Parkhomenko @AdamParkhomenko wrote: I spoke with someone in Ukraine just now who said Russian soldiers are now invading homes desperate for food and dry clothes. They are hungry and want to look like civilians.
I honestly don't believe it. It's way, way too early for this crap to start happening, and its a long walk back home to Russia.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#49

Post by p0rtia »

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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#50

Post by Chilidog »

I will say this....

Ukraine is winning the propaganda war, hands down.
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