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Russia Invades Ukraine

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Volkonski
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#1276

Post by Volkonski »

“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

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Post by neonzx »

Russian soldier asks Ukrainian widow to forgive him during first war crimes trial

Vadim Shishimarin, 21-year-old tank commander, has pleaded guilty to killing unarmed 62-year-old civilian

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21-year-old Russian soldier asked a Ukrainian widow to forgive him for the murder of her husband, as a court in Kyiv met for a second hearing on Thursday in the first war crimes trial arising from Russia’s 24 February invasion.

Vadim Shishimarin, a tank commander, pleaded guilty on Wednesday to killing Oleksandr Shelipov, an unarmed 62-year-old civilian, in the north-east Ukrainian village of Chupakhivka on 28 February.

“I acknowledge my blame … I ask you to forgive me,” he told the widow, Kateryna Shalipova, on Thursday. :snippity:

Dressed in a tracksuit, his shaved head lowered, Shishimarin cut a forlorn spectacle in a glass booth for defendants. He spoke calmly, but looked frightened. :snippity:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... imes-trial
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

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Post by Volkonski »

“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#1279

Post by Volkonski »

“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#1280

Post by pipistrelle »

Slim Cognito wrote: Wed May 18, 2022 10:17 am
Russia is believed to be preparing war crime trials for Ukrainian soldiers.
That terrifies me.
I think it important to call this out.
The widow asked the court to impose a life sentence, the maximum punishment for those charges, but said she would support his being part of a prisoner exchange for some of the Ukrainian soldiers who are in Russian custody after their months-long defense of the Mariupol steel plant.
“I think imprisonment for life,” she said when asked for her opinion. “But if they exchange him for our Mariupol defenders … I will not be against it.”
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

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Post by Estiveo »

Interesting change of pattern in US drone activity. Checking in over the last few weeks, there is usually a drone orbiting around the middle of the Black Sea, but this one has been making some interesting side trips.
Estiveoshot_20220522_091337.jpg
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

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Post by johnpcapitalist »

Estiveo wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 12:20 pm Interesting change of pattern in US drone activity. Checking in over the last few weeks, there is usually a drone orbiting around the middle of the Black Sea, but this one has been making some interesting side trips.

Estiveoshot_20220522_091337.jpg
My guess would be that it's checking on activity in the Russian presence in Georgia, to try to tell whether they are pulling troops out of there and sending them to Ukraine. Georgia wants to be part of NATO, so if Russia is leaving their invaded territory undefended, then Georgia may start to get intelligence to allow them to go in and reclaim their territory. If the US has the intelligence bandwidth, it's always good to expand the battle front to make your opponent sweat.

Getting intelligence on troop movements from Georgia to Ukraine as early as possible (when they leave Georgia) would enable Ukraine to take them out before they get established in a particular battle area. These new troops would not have combat experience, and would be theoretically easier to pick off, so there would be no new Russian capability in the area. They've already pulled troops out of Syria, so they don't have too many troops deployed outside Russia with combat experience to refresh the troops lost in Ukraine.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#1283

Post by Dave from down under »

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-23/ ... /101090876

Volunteers who fled authorities in Belarus fight for Ukraine in hopes it will help change things in their homeland

One is a restaurateur who fled Belarus when he learned he was about to be arrested for criticising President Alexander Lukashenko.

And one is certain his brother was killed by the country's security forces.

What has united them is their determination to resist Mr Lukashenko by fighting against Russian forces in Ukraine.

Belarusians are among those who have answered a call by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for foreign fighters to go to Ukraine and join the International Legion for the Territorial Defence of Ukraine, given the high stakes in a conflict that many see as a battle pitting dictatorship against freedom.


Key points:
Mr Lukashenko has stood by his ally Russian President Vladimir Putin, calling Mr Putin his "big brother"
After Mr Lukashenko was elected to a sixth term in elections seen as fraudulent, massive street protests were met with a brutal government crackdown
Many of the volunteers did not want to speak out of fear for their security and that of family in Belarus
Another was given the choice of either denouncing fellow opposition activists or being jailed.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#1284

Post by Volkonski »

“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#1285

Post by Notaperson »

He wrote a brutal resignation letter.


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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

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Post by Slim Cognito »

I hope he's already (quietly) arranged for asylum somewhere. That said, good on him, mate.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#1287

Post by John Thomas8 »

Simon I think explains things rather well here:

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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#1288

Post by neeneko »

Hrm.

So a problem I have been countering is that since I've been watching videos and consuming stories about Ukraine, the algorithm (all praise the algorithm) is feeing me stories from all sorts of news sources I have never heard of and struggle to evaluate how balanced or accurate they are. Some seem to be great as they are brining in perspectives of small producers that are in the region (or expat), others feel like they might be propaganda/sensationalism/tabloid. Anyone else struggling with this?

For instance, today I am trying to sort out the story with the UK and sending ships to the black sea. Some places are talking about it like they are doing it, or planning to do it, or drawing up plans on how they would do it, or getting ready to attack Russia directly with their warships.. and pretty much none of them are touching on how they would get through Turkish waters and the restrictions those have right now.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#1289

Post by Suranis »

neeneko wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 4:51 pm Hrm.

So a problem I have been countering is that since I've been watching videos and consuming stories about Ukraine, the algorithm (all praise the algorithm) is feeing me stories from all sorts of news sources I have never heard of and struggle to evaluate how balanced or accurate they are.
I've been using Josh Marshalls Ukraine twitter list and it seems to be fairly decent. At least it lessens the massive background noise.

https://twitter.com/i/lists/1494877848087187461
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#1290

Post by Gregg »

neeneko wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 4:51 pm Hrm.

So a problem I have been countering is that since I've been watching videos and consuming stories about Ukraine, the algorithm (all praise the algorithm) is feeing me stories from all sorts of news sources I have never heard of and struggle to evaluate how balanced or accurate they are. Some seem to be great as they are brining in perspectives of small producers that are in the region (or expat), others feel like they might be propaganda/sensationalism/tabloid. Anyone else struggling with this?

For instance, today I am trying to sort out the story with the UK and sending ships to the black sea. Some places are talking about it like they are doing it, or planning to do it, or drawing up plans on how they would do it, or getting ready to attack Russia directly with their warships.. and pretty much none of them are touching on how they would get through Turkish waters and the restrictions those have right now.

Flying boats.

Or I got it, put tow cables on all the jets in a carrier wing, and have them pick the carrier up and take it.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

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Post by MN-Skeptic »

Suranis wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 5:28 pm
I've been using Josh Marshalls Ukraine twitter list and it seems to be fairly decent. At least it lessens the massive background noise.

https://twitter.com/i/lists/1494877848087187461
Daniel Dale also has a Ukraine twitter list. There's probably a bit of overlap between his list and Marshalls'.

https://twitter.com/i/lists/1494327296383021062
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

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Post by johnpcapitalist »

neeneko wrote: Wed May 25, 2022 4:51 pm Hrm.

So a problem I have been countering is that since I've been watching videos and consuming stories about Ukraine, the algorithm (all praise the algorithm) is feeing me stories from all sorts of news sources I have never heard of and struggle to evaluate how balanced or accurate they are. Some seem to be great as they are bringing in perspectives of small producers that are in the region (or expat), others feel like they might be propaganda/sensationalism/tabloid. Anyone else struggling with this?

For instance, today I am trying to sort out the story with the UK and sending ships to the black sea. Some places are talking about it like they are doing it, or planning to do it, or drawing up plans on how they would do it, or getting ready to attack Russia directly with their warships.. and pretty much none of them are touching on how they would get through Turkish waters and the restrictions those have right now.
Others have posted Twitter lists they follow for information about Russia/Ukraine. Here's a link to the list I'm using: https://twitter.com/i/lists/1521334656687386625

Most of the sources there are reputable. Igor Sushko has broken a lot of good news that other outlets have taken a while to get to, but he has also posted some stuff that was obviously wrong from the get-go. He got the (accurate) info about the Moskva missile attack before almost anyone, but he also inaccurately reported that several other large Russian ships were sunk. I use him as a valuable early indicator, but I don't believe everything. That's the thing about doing this kind of work: sometimes you want sources that are less than 100%, but then you have to learn when to discount what they're saying and when to go with it.

Since I'm now spending a lot more time doing geopolitical analysis for work than ever before, I spend a lot of time trying to assess the quality of various sources. In the fog of war, even a lot of reputable outlets will get it wrong.

Regarding YouTube, I'd suggest checking sources out in print first and then watching the YouTube version of their work. If they're only on YouTube, that's a red flag.

I'm spending a lot of time worrying about the knock-on effects of Russian sanctions and what it means for Chinese economic strategy and their intentions regarding an imminent invasion of Taiwan. One hypothesis is that China's economy would be devastated by American sanctions coming on top of their about-to-collapse property bubble (70% of domestic wealth is in real estate, which is massively over-leveraged), the massive zero-COVID lockdowns (and you thought Donald Trump has the monopoly on ineffective ideas for dealing with COVID) against the backdrop of a population declining sooner and more sharply than anyone anticipated.

BTW, I highly recommend Peter Zeihan on YouTube. He's underestimating the effects of the Belt and Road Initiative as a successful strategy (it's not successful long-term but it may stave off some aspects of their decline over the short term), but he gets a lot of other stuff right. I'd strongly recommend watching anything he's put out in the last 3-4 months.

But now that I'm starting to watch a lot of "decline of China" stuff, I'm getting a large number of propaganda channels ultimately driven by the Falun Gong cult. I almost fell for the first two I saw, watching them for quite a while before the hair on the back of my neck started to stand up. They are slick and professional, and many of them feature articulate white guys that look like newscasters. It's only when you get into them for a while that things start to get just a little strange. I now google any YouTube channel relating to China before I click on it to assess their provenance, and I click on "don't recommend anything from this channel" as often as I can, and I'm taking another lap through my other sources where I might have been a little slack in my diligence.

This doesn't mean that I am shutting out stuff that I disagree with; I'm just making sure there are no propaganda outlets that I haven't assessed properly. I'll still watch propaganda because it might tell me what the people putting it out are afraid of, but if I know what it is, I can discount it appropriately.

Absolutely none of the sources I'm following (even suspect ones) are talking about British naval mobilization to support Ukraine with direct military intervention or to attack Russia. I suspect this is Russian disinformation designed to appeal to the nativist UK population that backed Brexit. UK is the major naval power in Europe, especially with two real aircraft carriers slowly coming on line (though they are still massively limited compared to the US), so Russia is clearly afraid of their ability to influence European military action.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#1293

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US preparing to approve advanced long-range rocket system for Ukraine
The Biden administration is preparing to step up the kind of weaponry it is offering Ukraine by sending advanced, long-range rocket systems that are now the top request from Ukrainian officials, multiple officials say.

The administration is leaning toward sending the systems as part of a larger package of military and security assistance to Ukraine, which could be announced as soon as next week.

Senior Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelensky, have pleaded in recent weeks for the US and its allies to provide the Multiple Launch Rocket System, or MLRS. The US-made weapon systems can fire a barrage of rockets hundreds of kilometers — much farther than any of the systems Ukraine already has — which the Ukrainians argue could be a gamechanger in their war against Russia.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/05/26/politics ... index.html
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#1294

Post by Volkonski »

“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

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Post by Mr brolin »

johnpcapitalist wrote: Thu May 26, 2022 10:25 am
Absolutely none of the sources I'm following (even suspect ones) are talking about British naval mobilization to support Ukraine with direct military intervention or to attack Russia. I suspect this is Russian disinformation designed to appeal to the nativist UK population that backed Brexit. UK is the major naval power in Europe, especially with two real aircraft carriers slowly coming on line (though they are still massively limited compared to the US), so Russia is clearly afraid of their ability to influence European military action.
With regard to this, I am aware of some contingents of the UK military (Army, Royal Marine, RAF Regiment et-al) being in close location, some logistics, much training and upskilling, analysis and intel etc.

This, in conjunction with the various military exercises the British have been participating along the NATO and near NATO borders would allow for specialist force projection HOWEVER it would be unlikely to occur outside of a NATO (or vanishingly unlikely) UN mandate.

Are members of the SAS, SBS and their ilk in theatre....? Wouldn't care to speculate...... however...... :twisted:

Re "nativist UK population that backed Brexit", no evidence of this existing, never mind being capable of influence (in this specific context). The current stats show a better than 76% support by the British populace to support resettlement of Ukrainian refugees in the UK with only 11% opposed (remainder are in the "I don't know bucket").
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#1296

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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#1297

Post by Notaperson »

Finally, an actual decision to do something.

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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

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Post by Slim Cognito »

Russia now controls 20% of Ukraine, Zelenskyy says; new Western weapons 'could turn the tide':

...
No one wants to invest in Russia anymore,' German leader says
Russia’s economy is falling apart and “time is working against Russia” and its president, Vladimir Putin, a top German official said Thursday.

German Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck made the remarks the same day Russian officials revealed that five more generals had been fired


Out of a cannon?

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/ger ... 46574.html

(the 20% figure includes Crimea)
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

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Post by Volkonski »

“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine

#1300

Post by Gregg »

Slow down there Sparky. Don't go talking about Berlin, there are some people there with long memories, bad attitudes and better friends than the last time you did that.
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