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Russia Invades Ukraine

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Volkonski
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#1601

Post by Volkonski »

“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#1602

Post by Atticus Finch »

Now we know what happens when Potemkin village goes to war.
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Russia Invades Ukraine

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Post by Volkonski »

Rumor but please let it be true.

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Russia Invades Ukraine

#1604

Post by Suranis »

The Russian Soldiers may have been all tuckered out from the united up and down fist motions they made at this place "being made part of Russia."
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#1605

Post by keith »

Ukraine is claiming advances near Kherson, retaking a couple of small villages, but not that the Russia's are running away... yet.
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Russia Invades Ukraine

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Post by Volkonski »

“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#1607

Post by Gregg »

I predict the Russian Army will disintegrate inside a month. I hope they kick them out of Crimea and blow that bridge up, too. :boxing:
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#1608

Post by neeneko »

Gregg wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 4:52 pm I predict the Russian Army will disintegrate inside a month. I hope they kick them out of Crimea and blow that bridge up, too. :boxing:
Sadly, I suspect they are going to have a long and grinding spiral down. I do not think this is going to end until someone marches on Moscow.
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#1609

Post by SuzieC »

Or blows up Moscow.
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#1610

Post by neeneko »

SuzieC wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 6:38 pm Or blows up Moscow.
That is another possibility.

Politically and theologically Russia has painted itself into a corner, future leaders will have to keep fighting this fight as a condition of leadership. Decapitation will probably not do the trick, completely replacing the power structure all the way down might be necessary.
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#1611

Post by Gregg »

neeneko wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 7:31 pm
SuzieC wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 6:38 pm Or blows up Moscow.
That is another possibility.

Politically and theologically Russia has painted itself into a corner, future leaders will have to keep fighting this fight as a condition of leadership. Decapitation will probably not do the trick, completely replacing the power structure all the way down might be necessary.
I'm sorry, is there a downside?
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#1612

Post by Sam the Centipede »

neeneko wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 6:36 pm
Gregg wrote: Mon Oct 03, 2022 4:52 pm I predict the Russian Army will disintegrate inside a month. I hope they kick them out of Crimea and blow that bridge up, too. :boxing:
Sadly, I suspect they are going to have a long and grinding spiral down. I do not think this is going to end until someone marches on Moscow.
I dunno. Ukraine isn't attacking cities because (1) that's difficult and would incur but casualties on their side, and (2) don't so endangers innocent civilians. Instead they take back the villages and towards so the Russian forces in the cities were effectively trapped and are faced with the choice of fleeing (I'm sorry, that's a tactical withdrawal) or dying. So the cities should return to Ukrainian control in due time.

Ukraine will, I believe (but my military knowledge is minimal) recover its borders from about 20 years back. What happens then? The Ukrainians aren't stupid enough to wish to invade Russia, that shitheap is a problem they don't need or want. Ukraine will obviously secure its border. So the question is what will the humiliated Russian government and people do? Obviously the hard men will lie and say they're under attack by Nato, that Ukraine is an existential that, but will that wash? Russians will hear the other side from returning soldiers, family abroad, other Russian-language media, etc. Which line will they believe? We know that people everywhere can be f***ing stupid (ah, Trumpistas? Brexiters?) so assuming rationality would be unwise.

I expect the Ukrainian line to be "we'll trade with you peacefully, be generally cooperative, but on our terms and there must be no threats or accumulation of offensive weaponry on our border". That won't work smoothly, due to Russian arrogance, but I expect any build-up will be met with a severe warning then precision strikes.

The dangers? First, the nutters at the top of Russian government are not rational actors. Driven by pan-Slavic fantasies and appealing irredentist ideology, they'll concoct a sort of Orthodox Jihad. Second, humiliation can be a powerful driver. Third, while the Russian military-industrial-government complex has shown itself to be thoroughly uncomprehending, forgot and incompetent, it would be a grave mistake to assume that that will continue. They will learn from their blunders and modernize. Not necessarily fully effectively, as corruption will continue, if mitigated, and the access to foreign technologies and skills will slow then (plus perhaps a brain drain).

It's going to be interesting! Even if the western powers (USA, UK, France, Germany) wane in their enthusiasm – as I expect they will – there is enough support from Baltic and ex-Warsaw Pact countries to ensure that Ukraine won't be ignored or inspired – and those countries' influence in Nato will be important.

Caveat lector: I really don't know anything about these issues, so my opinions and thoughts are not at all valuable.
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#1613

Post by neeneko »

Sam the Centipede wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 2:52 am I dunno. Ukraine isn't attacking cities because (1) that's difficult and would incur but casualties on their side, and (2) don't so endangers innocent civilians. Instead they take back the villages and towards so the Russian forces in the cities were effectively trapped and are faced with the choice of fleeing (I'm sorry, that's a tactical withdrawal) or dying. So the cities should return to Ukrainian control in due time.
Ukraine will probably be happy to simply have territory back, but I worry about what could get Russia to stop fighting. If Russia gets kicked out, I see a pause and then re-invasion within a few years. I see Ukraine becoming a national shame for the existing power structure, one that new leaders will have pressures and incentives to leverage in decades to come.
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#1614

Post by neeneko »

Gregg wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:49 am I'm sorry, is there a downside?
Setting aside the massive human cost, Russia is sitting on a lot of resources.... such a dismantling and rebuilding would take them out of the economy for decades. It would probably be similar to post WWII Japan, only with american white nationalists on one side and china/india on the other gunking up the process.
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#1615

Post by Sam the Centipede »

neeneko wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:20 am
Ukraine will probably be happy to simply have territory back, but I worry about what could get Russia to stop fighting.
I don't have the answer but perhaps it needs a change in the country's social dynamic with younger people pushing more outward looking views, and proclaiming the message that being a patriotic Russian does not imply considering other Slavic peoples inferior and thus deserving of Russian conquest in the natural order of things.

Most problems in the world seem to have elderly men clusters around their root causes.
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#1616

Post by Mr brolin »

I'm afraid I'm considerably less sanguine about Russian change I'm afraid.

The mentality of a single strong man in charge, leading the nation against real (or imaginary) malign external forces with demonization of "Un Russian" factors, along with a deep rooted racist underpinned nationalism is pretty ingrained in the Russian psyche.

Putin, Stalin the Czars, the only difference is that Stalin and the government of the Czars would look down on Putin as being too weak to run a PROPER purge and pogrom......

This along with an overly politicized Russian Orthodoxy senior hierarchy that actively supports and enables Putin ......
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#1617

Post by Suranis »

I think at least one of the factors keeping Putin there, is that once one person throws Putin out a window the Kermlin would run red with blood as everyone stabs everyone else in the back in a desperate attempt to both survive and to get to the big chair. 99% of people will wind up in a gulag or in the ground.

I think it's self preservation as much as anything else that stops them from getting rid of the old Bastard.
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#1618

Post by noblepa »

neeneko wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:23 am
Gregg wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 1:49 am I'm sorry, is there a downside?
Setting aside the massive human cost, Russia is sitting on a lot of resources.... such a dismantling and rebuilding would take them out of the economy for decades. It would probably be similar to post WWII Japan, only with american white nationalists on one side and china/india on the other gunking up the process.
Remember what happened in Iraq. Saddam Hussein was a truly evil man, but removing him destabilized the region for the last thirty years.

Removing Putin, or his regime could have the same affect.

The law of unintended consequences will very likely play a big part in such a scenario.
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#1619

Post by pipistrelle »

Mr brolin wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 7:56 am I'm afraid I'm considerably less sanguine about Russian change I'm afraid.

The mentality of a single strong man in charge, leading the nation against real (or imaginary) malign external forces with demonization of "Un Russian" factors, along with a deep rooted racist underpinned nationalism is pretty ingrained in the Russian psyche.

Putin, Stalin the Czars, the only difference is that Stalin and the government of the Czars would look down on Putin as being too weak to run a PROPER purge and pogrom......

This along with an overly politicized Russian Orthodoxy senior hierarchy that actively supports and enables Putin ......
All of that, which is why I called BS over Reagan "winning" the Cold War.
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#1620

Post by johnpcapitalist »

neeneko wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 6:20 amUkraine will probably be happy to simply have territory back, but I worry about what could get Russia to stop fighting. If Russia gets kicked out, I see a pause and then re-invasion within a few years.
Now that Russia has invaded in 2014 and again in 2022, everyone is concerned about that. That's why Ukraine has made it a priority to join the EU and NATO.

Even if Russia rebuilds their armaments industry so it's not dependent on the West (extremely difficult) and eliminates corruption inside their government and at all levels of their culture (snowball's chance in hell), it will take decades to rearm and then to treat their military well so that they are competent. But they might still delude themselves into trying again against a standalone Ukraine.

There is no way that Russia will ever be able to overpower NATO, because the economic firepower that drives military spending is just too great. Russia's GDP is $1.6 trillion, over 1/4 of which is resource exports (half of that is oil/gas). NATO's GDP is around $40 trillion, 25x Russia's.
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#1621

Post by johnpcapitalist »

Mr brolin wrote: Tue Oct 04, 2022 7:56 am I'm afraid I'm considerably less sanguine about Russian change I'm afraid.

The mentality of a single strong man in charge, leading the nation against real (or imaginary) malign external forces with demonization of "Un Russian" factors, along with a deep rooted racist underpinned nationalism is pretty ingrained in the Russian psyche.
This is true. Russia has dreams of being the ruler of the world. Historically, geography has been a problem for them. There are many easy invasion routes and many countries that could invade. The only way they could withstand that is to invade their neighbors first, hence the Soviet Union.

After the USSR collapsed, Russia thought they could buy power, because of their natural resources, and that worked for a time. Unfortunately, in the modern era, all of the money from resources has lined the personal pockets of corrupt leaders, instead of funding education, a technology industry, infrastructure development, effective healthcare, etc., all of which drive sustainable GDP growth. And now that they've pissed off the biggest customers for oil & gas, who now see them as an unreliable supplier, Europe will go elsewhere and their production will get shut in. They don't have enough port capacity to move significant amounts by sea to customers like India.

Putin had to act on beginning the global conquest now because his demographics are crashing. He's running out of 20-year-olds to fight in his army; the number of draftable youth are far less than the actual number because of epidemic drugs/alcohol in that age bracket. He's drafting 40-year-olds in the prime of their careers. And his population will likely drop by half in the next 40 years.

He's also been left behind by the global economy, as he's fallen into the "resource curse" and failed to reinvest that. In 1989, when Communism fell, Russian GDP was $650 billion. China's GDP was $350 billion. Today, Russia is $1.6 trillion and China is $15 trillion. Per capita GDP is in the lower tier of European countries, and it's only that high because of Moscow and St. Petersburg.

Finally, he's got a problem holding the whole country together. The east is extremely isolated from the western part of the country -- one road and only a couple of rail lines to move goods and what military he will have left. The strategy has always been to crush internal dissent before it requires internal reconquering. But that may be increasingly hard, especially if China sees that it can work to carve the country in two and create a second Mongolian-style dependent buffer state, where it can exercise de facto control of the resources. The alliance Russia and China announced recently is a joke; China is undoubtedly working on how to take over the eastern half of the country in some form or another.

Russia is going to be more of a danger for the next few years, until their population crashes once and for all. Defeat in Ukraine will only reinforce their dreams of global conquest, just as failed prophecy results in strengthening cultlike beliefs (read: Leon Festinger's "When Prophecy Fails" among many other works on cognitive dissonance). But in a decade or so, they won't be able to act on it. They may well turn into another North Korea.
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#1622

Post by Sam the Centipede »

Assuming the current war, sorry, special operation, ends with Russian withdrawal, one big change post bellum will be that Ukraine will join Nato (or perhaps be a special friend of some sort).

That brings in the Q-like doctrine of an an attack on one country is an attack on Nato: "WYA1YAA" – where you attack one you attack all. Not a happy prospect for Russians with HIMARS etc. sitting near their borders.

A lot will depend on those influencers: city mayors, governors, industrial leaders, opinion formers, etc., And whether the scanner one can push through ideas that improvement in both status and economy will come from more peaceable policies, not from death and destruction.
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#1623

Post by Volkonski »

“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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#1624

Post by Gregg »

Invading armies that fail, fail fast. Cutting off their lines of supply, just before the winter sets in, and they could literally starve to death in a frozen tundra.

You would think that Russians, of all people, would know this.
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#1625

Post by pipistrelle »

Is this where Napoleon has entered the chat?
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