Russia Invades Ukraine

[RTH10260]

Could (and Should) Ukraine Join Nato?
https://youtu.be/LXA8zCQ6i-k

Not wise at this time. It would imply that NATO is immediatly at war with Russia and the pot would boil over. IMHO if a NATO admission were to happen during the ongoing war this could lead to a real nuclear exchange. With the US having a wide forces deployed around the globe it is likely that Russia would attack at different fronts. It could get quite messy.

After a cease fire and truce agreement between Russia and Ukraine wich likely would include Russia retreating from most of the occupied territories, some sort of formal assistance pact is likely, full membership to follow like a decade later when the situation has cooled down and the political situation post-Putin becomes clearer.

[John Thomas8]

That was basically the conclusion in the video.

[p0rtia]

I'll take the counterpoint. Of course Ukraine should join NATO.

[Dave from down under]

NATO should allow Ukraine to join (if all member states agree), but cannot while Ukraine is at war.
Them’s the rules of NATO being a defensive organisation.

[Sam the Centipede]

My (mis?)understanding is that NATO rules bar the access of any country currently at war. That would be consistent with the idea of creating an "official" NATO v Soviet Union / Russia war through the back door.

[p0rtia]

My (mis?)understanding is that NATO rules bar the access of any country currently at war. That would be consistent with the idea of creating an "official" NATO v Soviet Union / Russia war through the back door.

I'm sure you're right. I took the question as philosophical--which, rereading the thread, I think others did too. My bad. I'm not sure anyone here is saying "After the war, Ukraine should not join NATO."

[RTH10260]

UN nuclear chief says situation at Zaporizhzhia plant is ‘serious’ but it can operate safely for ‘some time’
Rafael Grossi visited the Russian-controlled plant amid concerns for water levels in cooling pools after dam breach

Guardian staff and agencies
Fri 16 Jun 2023 01.14 BST

The head of the UN atomic energy agency has said the situation at the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant in Ukraine is “serious” and that ensuring water for cooling was a priority of his visit, adding that the station could operate safely for “some time”.

Rafael Grossi, of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), was inspecting the state of Europe’s largest nuclear plant following last week’s breach in the Kakhovka dam downstream on the Dnipro River. He said IAEA inspectors would remain at the site.

“What is essential for the safety of this plant is that the water that you see behind me stays at that level,” Grossi said in two tweets issued from near the station, including next to a pond that supplies water for cooling.

“With the water that is here the plant can be kept safe for some time. The plant is going to be working to replenish the water so that safety functions can continue normally.”



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... -some-time

[Gregg]

My (mis?)understanding is that NATO rules bar the access of any country currently at war. That would be consistent with the idea of creating an "official" NATO v Soviet Union / Russia war through the back door.

Is not war!


Is Special Military Mission!

[RTH10260]

Russian forces face shortage of tanks as counteroffensive creeps forward
Ukraine forces slowly pushing back Putin’s troops, claims Kyiv, aided by western hardware

Daniel Boffey in Kyiv
Sat 17 Jun 2023 11.44 BST

Russia’s forces are suffering a shortage of tanks, the country’s defence minister has admitted, as Ukraine’s offensive in the south and east continued to push back the frontline with the help of western hardware.

Sergei Shoigu, on a visit to a military factory in western Siberia, said that production of armoured vehicles needed to be increased as Kyiv talked up the heavy losses being inflicted on the occupying enemy.

An increase in the manufacture of tanks was said by Shoigu to be necessary “to satisfy the needs of Russian forces carrying out the special military operation”, in comments that echoed those of Vladimir Putin earlier in the week.

Russia’s president had saidthe military was lacking sufficient “high-precision ammunition, communications equipment, aircraft, drones, and so on” while insisting that Ukraine had faced “catastrophic losses” in the first two weeks of its counteroffensive.



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... rd-ukraine

[RTH10260]

Putin obviously forgot to sync the five year plan of the military-industrial complex with the war machine

[Suranis]

Well, he planned for a war that would last a month tops.

I have to wonder why the Kremlin is letting it be known that there is a "shortage" of Tanks and other equipment now. Because there is no way the defense minister said that without the Kremlin's direction. They stage manage everything.

[Dave from down under]

Shoigu needs to stay away from windows as

Putin is preparing scapegoats for when Russia loses the war.

“ Russia’s president had said the military was lacking sufficient “high-precision ammunition, communications equipment, aircraft, drones, and so on” ”

[RTH10260]

Well, he planned for a war that would last a month tops.

I have to wonder why the Kremlin is letting it be known that there is a "shortage" of Tanks and other equipment now. Because there is no way the defense minister said that without the Kremlin's direction. They stage manage everything.

"When hardware is at a premium, we keep it for our best of Russian troops, not for some rundown mercenaries that cannot fight and win!"

Now who else does not like loosers

[Dave from down under]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-19/ ... /102494826

Russia had the means, motive and opportunity to bring down a Ukrainian dam that collapsed earlier this month while under Russian control, according to exclusive drone photos and information obtained by The Associated Press.

Key points:
The collapse of Kakhovka Dam led to deadly flooding and widespread evacuations
Russia and Ukraine have accused each other of destroying the dam
The explosion was so strong it registered as Magnitude 2 on seismic monitors

Images taken from above the Kakhovka Dam and shared with the AP appear to show an explosive-laden car atop the structure.

Two officials also said Russian troops were stationed in a crucial area inside the dam where the Ukrainians said the explosion which destroyed it was centred.

The Russian Defence Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

[Dave from down under]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-18/ ... /102492966

Russian President Vladimir Putin has interrupted opening remarks by African leaders seeking to mediate in the Ukraine conflict to deliver a list of reasons why he believed many of their proposals were misguided.

Key points:
Russian President Vladimir Putin to the African delegation that Ukraine and the West had started the conflict long before this war
Mr Putin said Russia had never refused talks with the Ukrainian side
The African leaders are seeking agreement on a series of "confidence-building measures" for Russia and Ukraine to enter negotiations

Mr Putin first welcomed leaders from Senegal, Egypt, Zambia, Uganda, Congo Republic, Comoros and South Africa to the 18th-century Konstantinovsky Palace on the southern shore of the Gulf of Finland, stressing Russia's commitment to the continent.

But after presentations from the Comoran, Senegalese and South African leaders, he stepped in to challenge the assumptions of the plan before the round of comments from all the representatives could go any further.

Mr Putin reiterated his position that Ukraine and the West had started the conflict long before Russia sent its armed forces over the border in February last year.

Me: true - Russia started the conflict/war years before when it illegally annexed the Crimea.

[Dave from down under]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-06-19/ ... /102494574

Russia and Ukraine are suffering high numbers of military casualties as Kyiv fights to dislodge the Kremlin's forces from occupied areas in the early stages of its counteroffensive, according to British officials.

Key points:
The Ukrainian president says Kyiv's long-anticipated counteroffensive is proceeding well
A Russian-installed official says Ukraine has recaptured Piatykhatky, a village in the southern Zaporizhzhia region
Western analysts and military officials have cautioned Ukraine's counteroffensive may last a long time

Russian losses are probably at their highest level since the peak of the battle for Bakhmut in March, UK military officials said in their regular assessment on Sunday.

According to British intelligence, the most intense fighting has centred on the south-eastern Zaporizhzhia province, around Bakhmut and further west in Ukraine's eastern Donetsk province.

While the update reported that Ukraine was on the offensive in these areas and had "made small advances", it said Russian forces were conducting "relatively effective defensive operations" in Ukraine's south.

[RTH10260]

from 6 weeks ago

U.S. Intelligence Is Helping Ukraine Kill Russian Generals, Officials Say
Targeting assistance is part of a classified effort by the Biden administration to provide real-time battlefield intelligence to Ukraine.

By Julian E. Barnes, Helene Cooper and Eric Schmitt
May 4, 2022

WASHINGTON — The United States has provided intelligence about Russian units that has allowed Ukrainians to target and kill many of the Russian generals who have died in action in the Ukraine war, according to senior American officials.

Ukrainian officials said they have killed approximately 12 generals on the front lines, a number that has astonished military analysts.

The targeting help is part of a classified effort by the Biden administration to provide real-time battlefield intelligence to Ukraine. That intelligence also includes anticipated Russian troop movements gleaned from recent American assessments of Moscow’s secret battle plan for the fighting in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, the officials said. Officials declined to specify how many generals had been killed as a result of U.S. assistance.

The United States has focused on providing the location and other details about the Russian military’s mobile headquarters, which relocate frequently. Ukrainian officials have combined that geographic information with their own intelligence — including intercepted communications that alert the Ukrainian military to the presence of senior Russian officers — to conduct artillery strikes and other attacks that have killed Russian officers.

The intelligence sharing is part of a stepped-up flow in U.S. assistance that includes heavier weapons and tens of billions in aid, demonstrating how quickly the early American restraints on support for Ukraine have shifted as the war enters a new stage that could play out over months.




https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/04/us/p ... raine.html

[RTH10260]

In addition to above, without any link to any available news item at this time:

The Ukraine is said to have killed a very high ranking General in the southern region of the front within the last week. The story mentions that many other officers got killed too. This would indicate that the Ukraine was able to identify a command post. The story mentioned that said general made a piublic appearance, possibly spoke to Russian reporters, and Uraine were able to trace the origin.

[keith]

I saw a story that some Russian general kept several hundred troops standing in a field waiting for him to give a pep talk for two fucking hours. Which was plenty of time for the Ukrainians to pinpoint them and blow them all to the great dacha in the sky. Is that the same general?

[RTH10260]

Kakhovka collapse: image emerges of apparently explosive-laden car at dam
Photograph taken by Ukrainian drone on 28 May said to offer further evidence Russia was behind breach

Daniel Boffey in Kyiv
Mon 19 Jun 2023 10.58 BST

A photograph of a car apparently laden with explosives parked at the top of Ukraine’s Kakhovka dam shortly before it gave way is said to offer further evidence Russia was behind the incident.

The image, taken by a Ukrainian drone and given to Associated Press, was taken on 28 May. It appears to show a white car with its roof cut open, revealing large barrels inside, one of which appears to have a landmine attached to its lid. A cable runs from the barrel towards the side of the river held by Russian forces.

A Ukrainian special forces communications official told the Associated Press he believed the car was there to stop any Ukrainian advance on the dam and to amplify a planned explosion originating in the machine room.



https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... ine-russia

[johnpcapitalist]

In addition to above, without any link to any available news item at this time:

The Ukraine is said to have killed a very high ranking General in the southern region of the front within the last week. The story mentions that many other officers got killed too. This would indicate that the Ukraine was able to identify a command post. The story mentioned that said general made a piublic appearance, possibly spoke to Russian reporters, and Uraine were able to trace the origin.

BTW, the article you quoted above was from 2022, not six weeks ago. That suggests that the pace of general extermination seems to have slowed as reports now have the count at 20 including the guy they got last week after 12 in the first three months of the war. See: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/ ... tel-a81488

Body counts of dead generals are great, but the most important thing is that the US is getting a lot of field testing of our real-time command and control systems at little cost. Until recently, command and control, particularly around airborne and naval operations, has been stuck in a slow feedback loop. A potential target is identified, then mission planners prioritize a mission to take it out, then design the mission and implement it. That can take many hours for a "rush" job, and a couple of days for a target that's likely to remain stationary.

In the past, a command post could sit where it was for a few days before the enemy could find it, target it and put together a mission to take it out. So if you moved a command post every few days, you were probably safe. But what we're trying to do is put together a coordinated command and control network that will allow for opportunistic strikes. If we can take a piece of intelligence that there's a command post at coordinates (X, Y) and then identify available air resources (manned, unmanned, drone launchers, whatever) that are in position to lob something at it, and put a mission together to attack that target in minutes instead of days, then the life span of an enemy command post is measured in minutes. The moment the radio network gets re-established, they're vulnerable. Essentially, by reducing the time in the "kill chain" to near-zero, the enemy has no ability to direct their operations.

If NATO somehow gets sucked into the war, having a battle-tested command and control system will be a priceless assist to the NATO side. And it will be helpful in future conflicts... The Chinese military has got to be watching the evolution of command and control in Ukraine with a fair degree of interest as well as concern.

[Sam the Centipede]

But isn't that rapid target identification followed by tasking of local resources, attack, then scooting to avoid counter-battery fire exactly what Ukraine has been doing for the last year? NATO can learn (and I assume is doing so) from the Ukrainians' flexible devolved command structure.

[johnpcapitalist]

But isn't that rapid target identification followed by tasking of local resources, attack, then scooting to avoid counter-battery fire exactly what Ukraine has been doing for the last year? NATO can learn (and I assume is doing so) from the Ukrainians' flexible devolved command structure.

They're doing a very good job of that at some levels, typically at the small unit level for ground forces.

I'm talking about higher-level operations, particularly around strategic targets like command posts with generals in them, the Kerch bridge, rail heads, and other targets that significantly degrade Russia's ability to wage war. Ukraine doesn't have the sensor capability to figure out which airfields Russia is using to launch ground attack missions. We're constantly flying Global Hawk drones over the Black Sea that provide that kind of intellligence. We're practicing getting that information to a partner in real time so that it can be really useful, if not for getting the population into shelters but to maximize the effectiveness of anti-aircraft missiles or MANPADS to reduce that component.

We also have comprehensive intelligence about troop movements. The Ukrainians have done a great job of collecting intelligence from anyone with a cell phone, but that's opportunistic and not strategic. Again, by practicing detecting troop movements and working with Ukraine to decide quickly where to deploy, we're exercising our analysis capabilities, which we'll need in the future.

We're also exercising our top-end capability to monitor Russian moves within Russia, well beyond what the Ukrainians can do. Biden has declassified a certain amount of intelligence (using the correct process, not with his mind like TFG allegedly did) to show Putin that he will no longer have the advantage of surprise. We know what Putin has decided almost as soon as he does.

There's a whole lot of stuff behind the scenes that's going on that goes far, far beyond what the Ukrainians are doing in local areas. I'm not discrediting them, just pointing out that we're practicing a far larger game and they're providing a test environment.

[RTH10260]

BTW, the article you quoted above was from 2022, not six weeks ago.

I missed the year

[Gregg]

I know it looks good to kill Generals and all, but let me add a saying I heard a German officer once say about killing commanders:

"There is never a shortage of peacocks, but it's better to kill the tigers".

What he meant, I think, is it might in the heat of battle be better to find and kill, say, a Lt Col as much as a Lt General. When the going is getting strange, immobilizing a Battalion in the middle of a Regiment or Brigade operation is a good thing as well. Doesn't get the headlines, but puts the spanner in the works just as much.