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Russia Invades Ukraine

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RTH10260
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#2076

Post by RTH10260 »

Kids need to releearn this ...
Image
LOOSE LIPS SINK SHIPS
Concerns about national security intensify during wartime. With German and Japanese submarines patrolling off U.S. coasts, great emphasis was placed on educating servicemen and civilians about the need for secrecy concerning military matters, especially troop movements. Central to maintaining national security was the Office of War Information's drive to limit talk about the war in both the public and private arenas of American life. Silence meant security. The graphic designs of this "loose talk" on the home front posters were usually strong and eye catching using bright colors for impact. In no other series of WWII posters was the potential for loss of human life portrayed as such a recurring theme.
followed by a list of war time posters in the archive of the state of NH.
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#2077

Post by Frater I*I »

RTH10260 wrote: Fri Apr 14, 2023 7:46 pm Kids need to releearn this ...

:snippity:

followed by a list of war time posters in the archive of the state of NH.


Back in the olden days of the mid 90s we were cautioned about what unclassified stuff we would talk about over non-secured line, the idea being that the enemy has a few classified pieces of the puzzle, but not anywhere near a complete picture, but your babbling might give them enough clues to draw out the rest....



And I was taught this in the goddamn Infantry....let alone someone who's in Intel....
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#2078

Post by poplove »

Frater I*I wrote: Fri Apr 14, 2023 9:40 pm
RTH10260 wrote: Fri Apr 14, 2023 7:46 pm Kids need to releearn this ...

:snippity:

followed by a list of war time posters in the archive of the state of NH.


Back in the olden days of the mid 90s we were cautioned about what unclassified stuff we would talk about over non-secured line, the idea being that the enemy has a few classified pieces of the puzzle, but not anywhere near a complete picture, but your babbling might give them enough clues to draw out the rest....



And I was taught this in the goddamn Infantry....let alone someone who's in Intel....
Yep! EEFI, Essential Elements of Friendly Information. Basically, be careful what you talk about anywhere, especially off base, because you don't know who is listening and putting all the pieces together. Civilians and DoD contractors also received those security briefings.
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#2079

Post by pipistrelle »

FFS, I've never been near the military or had a security clearance, and even I could figure that out.

Why did this guy have access? How many like him are there?
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#2080

Post by Maybenaut »

I have to say, I’m a little annoyed by the righteous indignation of some people on the left when it comes to the people on the right defending this guy. A lot of people on the left didn’t want to hear that Manning and Snowden were criminals. “No, they’re whistleblowers!”

Well, this guy and this situation isn’t any different. It doesn’t matter what a person’s motivation is for divulging classified information. Whether they did it to impress their buddies or did it to expose policies and actions they disagree with, divulging classified information is a crime.

I’m not saying MT Green is right. She’s not. I’m just bothered by what I perceive as, at the very least, the risk of situational ethics on the left.
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#2081

Post by pipistrelle »

Maybenaut wrote: Fri Apr 14, 2023 11:36 pm I have to say, I’m a little annoyed by the righteous indignation of some people on the left when it comes to the people on the right defending this guy. A lot of people on the left didn’t want to hear that Manning and Snowden were criminals. “No, they’re whistleblowers!”

Well, this guy and this situation isn’t any different. It doesn’t matter what a person’s motivation is for divulging classified information. Whether they did it to impress their buddies or did it to expose policies and actions they disagree with, divulging classified information is a crime.

I’m not saying MT Green is right. She’s not. I’m just bothered by what I perceive as, at the very least, the risk of situational ethics on the left.
Not from me. No sympathy for Snowden or Manning.
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#2082

Post by Slim Cognito »

I confess I was sympathetic to Reality Winner. I knew what she did was wrong. I think my hatred for Trump and his administration affected that; did the punishment fit the crime? Well, the shoe is on the other foot now.
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#2083

Post by Ben-Prime »

Gregg wrote: Thu Apr 13, 2023 7:26 pm
RTH10260 wrote: Thu Apr 13, 2023 4:21 pm BUT.... But.... but.... did he forget to think the documents into their unclassified state :?:

:twisted:
You're average A1C doesn't get to do that.
I think the evidence already in tells us this particular airman was a standard deviation or two away from average.
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#2084

Post by Ben-Prime »

Maybenaut wrote: Fri Apr 14, 2023 11:36 pm I have to say, I’m a little annoyed by the righteous indignation of some people on the left when it comes to the people on the right defending this guy. A lot of people on the left didn’t want to hear that Manning and Snowden were criminals. “No, they’re whistleblowers!”

Well, this guy and this situation isn’t any different. It doesn’t matter what a person’s motivation is for divulging classified information. Whether they did it to impress their buddies or did it to expose policies and actions they disagree with, divulging classified information is a crime.

I’m not saying MT Green is right. She’s not. I’m just bothered by what I perceive as, at the very least, the risk of situational ethics on the left.
I generally tend to agree. However, I do *see* their argument: To some people, there does need to be some kind of motivational issue -- divulging classified intelligence to be A Big Man is different than doing so specifically to wake up America at large and save lives, in their minds. And thus it's about intent.

Mind you, most Foreign Service jobs require clearance of some kind, so I'd never get away with doing what the accused allegedly did in this case, nor any of the comparative cases you mention. I'm firmly with you on this, Maybenaut. I just ... see the argument from the folks who don't, though I disagree with it.
But the sunshine aye shall light the sky,
As round and round we run;
And the truth shall ever come uppermost,
And justice shall be done.

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Russia Invades Ukraine

#2085

Post by Frater I*I »

Maybenaut wrote: Fri Apr 14, 2023 11:36 pm I have to say, I’m a little annoyed by the righteous indignation of some people on the left when it comes to the people on the right defending this guy. A lot of people on the left didn’t want to hear that Manning and Snowden were criminals. “No, they’re whistleblowers!”

:snippity:
Not me, I always called them criminals, in Snowden's case traitor is called for, he specifically sought to steal classified intel, then ran off to seek asylum in the two major enemy countries of the US, and you'll never convince me he didn't share everything he stole with them...
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#2086

Post by Foggy »

pipistrelle wrote: Sat Apr 15, 2023 7:35 am
Maybenaut wrote: Fri Apr 14, 2023 11:36 pm A lot of people on the left didn’t want to hear that Manning and Snowden were criminals.

Not from me. No sympathy for Snowden or Manning.
Likewise, and it was a painful experience on Fogbow, because we lost a couple, maybe a few members who wanted to stick with the whistleblower idea.

But Fogbow is brutal on facts, and when Snowden left for Russia I was all done with anything saying he was a hero. Fuck that guy, to this very day.

And this dude isn't just a fucking asshole, he's an anti-semitic fucking asshole. I do not tolerate antisemitism and I do not tolerate racism in general and fuck this guy too.

I was 21. I had a lot of crazy thoughts and did a lot of crazy things. I wasn't an antisemitic asshole and being young is no excuse.
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#2087

Post by Dr. Ken »

This is the crap that annoys me.


People trying to compare this to Vindman. Vindman didn't leak, he used proper channels to report wrongdoing. Texiera leaked to try to win an internet argument amongst incels.
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#2088

Post by keith »

pipistrelle wrote: Sat Apr 15, 2023 7:35 am
Maybenaut wrote: Fri Apr 14, 2023 11:36 pm I have to say, I’m a little annoyed by the righteous indignation of some people on the left when it comes to the people on the right defending this guy. A lot of people on the left didn’t want to hear that Manning and Snowden were criminals. “No, they’re whistleblowers!”

Well, this guy and this situation isn’t any different. It doesn’t matter what a person’s motivation is for divulging classified information. Whether they did it to impress their buddies or did it to expose policies and actions they disagree with, divulging classified information is a crime.

I’m not saying MT Green is right. She’s not. I’m just bothered by what I perceive as, at the very least, the risk of situational ethics on the left.
Not from me. No sympathy for Snowden or Manning.
Me either
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#2089

Post by RTH10260 »

Pentagon leaks suspect wins praise from far-right US politicians and media
Marjorie Taylor Greene calls Jack Teixeira ‘white, male, Christian and anti-war’ as Tucker Carlson says his sin was ‘telling the truth’

Chris Stein in Washington
Sat 15 Apr 2023 07.00 BST

Washington lawmakers have written off Jack Teixeira, the 21-year-old air national guardsman accused of being behind the worst US intelligence leak in a decade, as an “alleged criminal” after his arrest yesterday, but that hasn’t stopped him from winning praise from the political right.

“He revealed the crimes, therefore he’s the criminal. That’s how Washington works. Telling the truth is the only real sin,” declared the Fox News commentator Tucker Carlson on Thursday evening in the opening monologue of his show, which is the most watched on cable television. “The news media are celebrating the capture of the kid who told Americans what’s actually happening in Ukraine. They are treating him like Osama bin Laden,” the late al-Qaida terrorist leader.

Federal prosecutors allege Teixeira took secret documents from the Massachusetts air national guard base where he worked as a low-ranking cyber specialist and posted them online. They first appeared on one of the gaming messaging platform Discord’s servers in January before spreading to other social media sites and being reported on by news outlets earlier this month.

Shortly after he was taken into custody in Massachusetts on Thursday, the far-right congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene – who has persistently called for the Joe Biden White House and Washington in general to cut off support to Kyiv – rallied to his defense.

“Jake Teixeira is white, male, christian, and anti-war. That makes him an enemy to the Biden regime. And he told the truth about troops being on the ground in Ukraine and a lot more,” she tweeted in an apparent reference to one of the leaked documents that indicates 14 US special forces soldiers were present in Ukraine during the past two months.

“Ask yourself who is the real enemy? A young low level national guardsmen [sic]? Or the administration that is waging war in Ukraine, a non-Nato nation, against nuclear Russia without war powers?”

Other documents have revealed details of how the United States gathers its information and how deeply its intelligence agencies have penetrated Russia’s military. Also among the leaked material is a pessimistic assessment of Ukraine’s prospects of recapturing territory from Russia this spring – a subject Carlson seized on.



https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... er-carlson
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#2090

Post by Volkonski »

Kyiv says it terminates land lease deal with Russian Embassy

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ky ... 023-04-20/
Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko on Thursday said the city had terminated the Russian Embassy's deal to lease land in the capital and wanted the property to be returned to the Ukrainian state.

Ukraine broke off relations with Russia after the February 2022 invasion. There are no Russian diplomats in the embassy building, which lies to the west of the city centre.

"Today, Kyiv city council terminated the land lease agreement with the embassy of the aggressor-state - Russia," Klitschko wrote on the Telegram messaging app.

"It also appealed to the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine regarding the return of the property of the 'diplomatic establishment' of the Russian barbarians to the Ukrainian state," he said.

In response, Russia's RIA news agency cited a Moscow source as saying that if Ukraine did nationalise the embassy building, Kyiv would automatically lose ownership rights to its diplomatic missions in Russia.
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#2091

Post by Dave from down under »

NATO chief visits Ukraine as Russia tries to bolster army recruits

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-20/ ... /102249694

Ukraine's future lies in NATO, the Western military alliance's chief Jens Stoltenberg said during his first visit to the country since Russia's invasion 14 months ago.

Key points:
Mr Stoltenberg met with Mr Zelenskyy in Kyiv, affirming Ukraine's "rightful place" in NATO
Russia advertises for men to volunteer in latest war campaign
Denmark and The Netherlands say the will send Ukraine more tanks on top of those already promised
"Let me be clear: Ukraine's rightful place is in the euro-Atlantic family. Ukraine's rightful place is in NATO. And over time, our support will help you to make this possible," Mr Stoltenberg told reporters during a joint press conference with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv.

He pledged continued military support for Ukraine, saying that, so far, NATO allies had trained tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops and provided 65 billion euros ($105.95 billion) of military aid alone.

"NATO stands with you today, tomorrow and for as long as it takes," Mr Stoltenberg said, before inviting Mr Zelenskyy to July's NATO summit in Lithuania.

The NATO secretary-general's visit is likely to irk Russia, which regards the alliance as a hostile military bloc bent on encroaching on what it sees as its sphere of influence and opposes Ukraine's efforts to join NATO.

-----------------

from later in the above article

Posters seeking professional soldiers have sprung up in the Russian capital in recent weeks declaring that "Our Profession is to defend the Motherland."

should be amended to be:
"Our Profession is to defend the Motherland by waging wars of territorial conquest as ordered by our Tzar."
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#2092

Post by RTH10260 »

Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly --- Russia Airforce style
Russian plane accidentally strikes Russian city near Ukraine border leaving 20m crater
‘Accidental discharge of aviation ammunition’ from jet responsible for huge blast in Belgorod

Pjotr Sauer
Fri 21 Apr 2023 10.53 BST

A Russian warplane accidentally fired a weapon into the city of Belgorod near Ukraine, causing an explosion and damaging buildings, the Russian defence ministry said.

Late on Thursday, local authorities reported a large blast in the city, which lies just across the border from Ukraine. The regional governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, said three people had been injured.

“As a Sukhoi Su-34 air force plane was flying over the city of Belgorod there was an accidental discharge of aviation ammunition,” the defence ministry said, according to the Russian state-owned news agency Tass.

Smoke rises after an apparent attack by Ukraine on a fuel depot in Belgorod, Russia, on 1 April.
‘Now we get hit too’: Belgorod, the Russian city on the Ukraine frontline
Read more
Gladkov, announcing a state of emergency, said on Telegram there was a crater measuring 20 metres (65ft) across on one of the main streets. Four cars and four blocks of flats were damaged, he added. “Thank God there are no dead,” he said.

The defence ministry did not say what kind of weapon was involved. The Su-34 is a supersonic fighter-bomber jet. Tass reported that the ministry had announced an investigation was under way.

Thursday’s explosion also once again highlights the strain of the 14-month-old war on the Russian military machine.

Russian pro-war commentators initially blamed Ukraine for the blast and questioned why Kyiv was able to launch an attack on the centre of Belgorod. “Ukrainian special services show that they can blow up almost everything. Our response must be tougher,” the pro-Kremlin analyst Sergei Markov wrote on Telegram shortly after the news was reported.




https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... 20m-crater
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#2093

Post by Volkonski »

Ukraine updates: Russia to expel German diplomats
Russia said the move was in response to a similar decision by Germany, which the latter has not confirmed. Meanwhile, Spain has shipped its first Leopard 2 batch to Ukraine. DW has the latest.


https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-r ... a-65404768
Russia said on Saturday that it was expelling more than 20 German diplomats in what it said was a tit-for-tat move after it claimed Germany had expelled numerous Russian diplomats.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova wrote on her Telegram channel that Moscow was responding in kind to Berlin's "mass expulsion of employees of Russian diplomatic missions in Germany."

She later told Russian state-run television that "more than 20" German diplomats would be expelled.

German news agency DPA also reported on Saturday that a Russian aircraft had been granted special diplomatic permission to land in Berlin, but the reason was not given.

The German Foreign Ministry said it took note of Russia's statements.

"The Federal government and the Russian side have been contact in recent weeks on personnel matters in their respective representations abroad," the German foreign ministry told the French AFP news agency. It did not mention the diplomats' expulsion.
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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#2094

Post by Dave from down under »

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-04-24/ ... /102258576

Analysts say Kyiv may be launching long-awaited counteroffensive as Ukraine war spurs record global spending on military

Ukrainian military forces have successfully established positions on the eastern side of the Dnieper River, according to a new analysis, giving rise to speculation that the advances could be an early sign of Kyiv's long-awaited spring counteroffensive.

Key points:
Baltic states have condemned remarks by China's envoy to France over the sovereignty of ex-Soviet nations
World military expenditure rose by 3.7 per cent in real terms in 2022
European military spending increased by 13 per cent last year

The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, reported late Saturday that geolocated footage from pro-Kremlin military bloggers indicated that Ukrainian troops had established a foothold near the town of Oleshky, along with "stable supply lines" to their positions.

Experts believe that if Ukraine launches a spring counteroffensive, a key objective would be to break through the land corridor between Russia and Crimea, which would require crossing the Dnieper River in southern Ukraine.

Some Ukrainian media outlets have suggested the analysis is evidence of the counteroffensive beginning, but the spokesperson for Ukraine's Operational Command South, Natalia Humeniuk, urged everyone to be patient.
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#2095

Post by Dave from down under »

The White House says it now estimates that since December more than 20,000 Russians have been killed as Ukraine rebuffs a heavy assault by Russian forces in eastern Ukraine.

White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby says the US estimate is based on newly declassified American intelligence.

US General Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in November that Russia had suffered well over 100,000 killed or wounded in the first eight months of the war.

The new figures suggest that Russian losses have dramatically accelerated in recent months.

The fiercest recent battles in Ukraine have been in the eastern Donetsk region, where Russia is struggling to encircle the city of Bakhmut.
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Russia Invades Ukraine

#2096

Post by Sam the Centipede »

Someone on Twitter suggested that the USA's reluctance to offer its fanciest super-duper weapons to Ukraine, such as ATACMS long-range missiles, the most modern fighter planes, etc. could hit the Law of Unintended Consequences. How so?

We know that Ukraine has been successfully innovating with exploiting inexpensive drones and enhancing other relatively cheap and easily manufactured weapons in imaginative ways.

A lot of warfare is about attrition: attrition of people, attrition of equipment. If an expensive offensive weapon causes a lot of damage to the opposition, that's depressing but viable, war is destruction. But if the expensive weapon is used to defend against a relatively cheap weapons, say a $500,000 anti-aircraft missile knocking out a $5,000 offensive weapon (drone, rocket, whatever) not good. The $5,000 weapons will be lobbed over until the $500,000 weapons are exhausted, then the defender is in trouble.

The point? That the advance of these cheap innovative weapons might have removed the advantages of the extra-special weapons, they might be fighting yesterday's war. So in a few years' time, push ATACMS at an international weapons fair: "interesting, nice big bang, but no thanks, we'll save our money and buy lots of this little stuff."

I am no military expert, not even remotely so, but I thought this was an interesting view.
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#2097

Post by MN-Skeptic »

Two points I've seen re the more expensive, advanced equipment - They require a long period of training in order to use, and they are high maintenance items - so you have to have trained maintenance personnel and parts available.
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#2098

Post by RTH10260 »

Sam the Centipede wrote: Tue May 02, 2023 1:21 pm Someone on Twitter suggested that the USA's reluctance to offer its fanciest super-duper weapons to Ukraine, such as ATACMS long-range missiles, the most modern fighter planes, etc. could hit the Law of Unintended Consequences. How so?

:snippity:
I am no military expert, not even remotely so, but I thought this was an interesting view.
What MN-Sceptic said before. But the most modern items have highly advanced components and the US would not be happy if Russia could get hand on them, eg lost in a Russian raid or enemy contact turned bad, or a dud that missed its target etc. There is also the chance that a Ukranian commander goes rogue and turns a long range missile to Moscow rather than the immediate battle field.
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#2099

Post by Sam the Centipede »

Oh, I wasn't suggesting that the USA was wrong to not supply the fancy kit to Ukraine, I don't have an informed opinion on the matter, and the above points are valid. But this war is a highly visible proving ground for both older and newer technologies, and for novel developments. Some of the results might not be as manufacturers or their sponsoring nations wish.

Another headline I saw in a tweet mused on whether this war is disfavourable to the notion of small highly professional armies (e.g. France, or Britain) as a satisfactory defense, that large numbers are also important. That's not in itself an argument for national service or routine conscription, but might suggest that being able to effectively mobilize the population could be very important (as the UK in WW2 did after its standing army was severely weakened in 1939-40, leading to the Dunkirk evacuation).
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#2100

Post by johnpcapitalist »

Sam the Centipede wrote: Tue May 02, 2023 1:21 pm Someone on Twitter suggested that the USA's reluctance to offer its fanciest super-duper weapons to Ukraine, such as ATACMS long-range missiles, the most modern fighter planes, etc. could hit the Law of Unintended Consequences. How so?

We know that Ukraine has been successfully innovating with exploiting inexpensive drones and enhancing other relatively cheap and easily manufactured weapons in imaginative ways.

A lot of warfare is about attrition: attrition of people, attrition of equipment. If an expensive offensive weapon causes a lot of damage to the opposition, that's depressing but viable, war is destruction. But if the expensive weapon is used to defend against a relatively cheap weapons, say a $500,000 anti-aircraft missile knocking out a $5,000 offensive weapon (drone, rocket, whatever) not good. The $5,000 weapons will be lobbed over until the $500,000 weapons are exhausted, then the defender is in trouble.

The point? That the advance of these cheap innovative weapons might have removed the advantages of the extra-special weapons, they might be fighting yesterday's war. So in a few years' time, push ATACMS at an international weapons fair: "interesting, nice big bang, but no thanks, we'll save our money and buy lots of this little stuff."

I am no military expert, not even remotely so, but I thought this was an interesting view.
The guy I've seen on Twitter posting this argument most coherently is Trent Telenko, who definitely knows his stuff. This argument is generally correct, though there are some caveats; Telenko does overstate the end point of this trend a bit. He asserts that low-flying manned attack aircraft are dead in the water and that US command and control networks are as doomed as Russian ones in this war. The US military is definitely thinking about this quite a bit; they're not in denial.

There have been systems in development for quite a while to counter waves of cheap, small drones. The developments in the Ukraine war have shifted the sweet spot for anti-drone systems from preventing "backpack" drones to this somewhat larger form factor. I don't have specifics but I would expect to see some of these being deployed for field testing before too long, perhaps even in Ukraine. After all, Ukraine is (in addition to being a dismal human tragedy for the Ukrainians) the best lab one could hope for to test weapons systems in real-world conditions against a large, well-armed opponent. The US hasn't had that kind of real-world research opportunity for fifty years.

ATACMS and similar systems will still have their place for the nations who can afford them. If we had deployed ATACMS to Ukraine on a Monday, the Kerch Strait bridge would be permanently gone by Wednesday, along with key points in the rail networks through Southern Ukraine that supply Crimea and the Russian war effort. An infinite amount of cheap drones would not be able to produce that effect. And there would not be a single Russian ship in the Black Sea, either.

ATACMS costs a lot because it has stuff that cheap drones don't have: larger warheads, supersonic speed, maneuver in flight, multiple redundant guidance systems, jam-proof communications, radiation hardened electronics (which can't be fried remotely like many small UAV defeat systems do), and more. And don't forget the range: 200 miles/300 km. It can carry a 500 pound penetrator, which is great for bunkers and bridges; warheads in this emerging class of drones basically would have the same effect on the Kerch Bridge as throwing Styrofoam at it.

Regarding cost: US GDP is 15 times Russia's, and we spend more than twice the percentage of GDP on defense as the Russians do (they're in line with most countries). So for us, a $600,000 missile has the same proportional cost to our economy as a $30,000 missile does for Russia and most other countries. The Pentagon does think about "bang for the buck" under a variety of more trendy sounding names. So we will definitely continue to find ways to produce effects dramatically more cheaply, just like other guys. But cheap guys will not manage to cause significant attrition to the US Treasury even at the current cost imbalance per unit.

Net result: cheap drones are a definite vulnerability for a few years, until systems that are already far along in development get deployed at scale, then the battle returns to areas where the US and its allies have a competitive advantage. After that, they'll still be used, but they won't be effective enough to give the countries that depend on them a sustainable battlefield advantage.
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