Russia Invades Ukraine
Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
Most likely they will pit them at "Stable" areas of the front to bulk up the troops, to disguise the fact that his army is running low on personnel and to discourage Ukraine from attacking there.
If the worst comes tot the worst the remaining actual soldiers will be piled up in Crimea as losing that will have Putin sailing through the nearest window and even if he survives it his legacy will be total failure.
If the worst comes tot the worst the remaining actual soldiers will be piled up in Crimea as losing that will have Putin sailing through the nearest window and even if he survives it his legacy will be total failure.
Hic sunt dracones
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
Aside from the World Wars, has a conscript army ever won a war against a defending opponent on their own ground?
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
Messages on Russian social media apparently suggest that would be a stretch goal. They might get bits of a uniform, a malfunctioning weapon, bullying or hazing masquerading as training, and that's it. Then of to the front into the meat grinder.
It's not a good time to be a Russian man of an age for soldiering, unless you are lucky (!) enough to be rich or living in the Russian heartland.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
...while neglecting to discipline them for any criming they may do in partial uniforms on the lines, of course. "It's now patriotic to rape and steal for Mother Russia .... as long as you do it in those parts of Mother Russia way over there that have the temerity to call themselves a separate country."
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And the truth shall ever come uppermost,
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
Good question. After pondering, I kind of think almost ALL armies raised for invading a neighbor were conscripted, in other words it's difficult to get Earthlings to leave hearth and home and risk injury or death when there's no threat from being invaded yourself.
Different story when you're defending, of course.
I would suspect that even Ghengis Khan probably conscripted his first army. 'Course, a victorious army generates its own volunteers.
But the real answer is probably, we don't know enough.
And as we know, it would be irresponsible not to speculate.
Out from under.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
Europe seems to have a choice between surrendering to Russia or finding ways to meeting their energy needs without Russian fossil fuels.
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
If European leaders had not realized this was coming, and if they have not been preparing for this, then our leaders are idiots and we deserve every shiver.
Hic sunt dracones
Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
That is all very true.
However, almost all politicians avoid delivering bad news to their people. For instance, that is why many of them deny climate change.
BUT...
Putin is biting the hand that feeds him. He is galvanizing opposition against him. He is generating enormous support for non-Russian sources of energy in Europe, whether it is natural gas from Canada or alternative green sources or simply better energy conservation. He will greatly decrease the dependency of Europe on Russian natural resources, and thereby, greatly decrease the income Russia gets from Europe. Russia will be forced to sell natural resources to customers who do not have as much money to spend. This is not good for Russia in the long run.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
Actually, it's a bit worse than that. Most of his oil and gas go through pipelines that end in the west or via tanker routes that sail through choke points controlled by the West. With Sweden and Finland joining NATO, the Baltic Sea is a NATO lake, where they can interdict anything going to or from Russia.
The oil produced in the east can go to China via a small pipeline, but all those girls use advanced drilling techniques provided by Western experts that have pulled out. Stuff will break and it won't be fixed. Production will get shut in and the wells will collapse. Those weeks won't come back on line for decades.
Russia is screwed. And they did it to themselves.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
Not to disagree with JohnP …
… but a significant factor in Russia's future will be the attitude of China and (probably to a lesser extent) India.
China terms towards a pragmatic approach, and lands towards being everybody's friend … or if not friend, useful partner, supplier, customer, etc.
China and many other countries (such as post-colonial) Africa don't see the dispute over territory in Europe as their problem. Some shrug their shoulders and say "you invaded us, you didn't care about our wars, why do you think we are concerned with your local conflicts?"
So China and India might provide the customers and the technical resources to get the Russian economy going again, and provide indirect access to advanced technologies, and more of less covert routes for western corporations to sell their services and products in a deniable way.
Quelling Russian irredentism and imperialism will require a sophisticated approach. Ideally including the Russian people actually deciding that fascism is not their preferred for forward and doing something about removing their current crop of leaders.
… but a significant factor in Russia's future will be the attitude of China and (probably to a lesser extent) India.
China terms towards a pragmatic approach, and lands towards being everybody's friend … or if not friend, useful partner, supplier, customer, etc.
China and many other countries (such as post-colonial) Africa don't see the dispute over territory in Europe as their problem. Some shrug their shoulders and say "you invaded us, you didn't care about our wars, why do you think we are concerned with your local conflicts?"
So China and India might provide the customers and the technical resources to get the Russian economy going again, and provide indirect access to advanced technologies, and more of less covert routes for western corporations to sell their services and products in a deniable way.
Quelling Russian irredentism and imperialism will require a sophisticated approach. Ideally including the Russian people actually deciding that fascism is not their preferred for forward and doing something about removing their current crop of leaders.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
India clearly has a choice: drop the non-aligned stance and officially join the West, which will help them militarily against China, a major concern. Or stick with the status quo and risk alienating their biggest market.Sam the Centipede wrote: ↑Tue Sep 06, 2022 5:18 am Not to disagree with JohnP …
… but a significant factor in Russia's future will be the attitude of China and (probably to a lesser extent) India.
China terms towards a pragmatic approach, and lands towards being everybody's friend … or if not friend, useful partner, supplier, customer, etc.
China and many other countries (such as post-colonial) Africa don't see the dispute over territory in Europe as their problem.
So China and India might provide the customers and the technical resources to get the Russian economy going again, and provide indirect access to advanced technologies, and more of less covert routes for western corporations to sell their services and products in a deniable way.
China does not have the experience in cold weather drilling that the Russians need in order to keep the eastern oil fields running. And they're not making high enough quality semiconductors for military components. The just passed CHIPS act means that next gen chip equipment by will remain only within the West and out of reach of China. Finally, I suspect the message was quietly passed to China that if they help the Russians too much, we will impose the same sanctions on them that we imposed on stooges like Belarus.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
Thanks JohnP, you're better informed than me.
I'm not sure about "warning" China – it's not a country which likes being instructed by others. And sanctions against them? I'm not sure who that would hurt most!
It is going to be, ah, interesting to see how the world reorders (or not) when the Ukraine war reaches some sort of conclusion. I think, as I wrote above, that it is important to be aware that for much of the world it's a petty local fracas, not an existential crisis.
I'm not sure about "warning" China – it's not a country which likes being instructed by others. And sanctions against them? I'm not sure who that would hurt most!
It is going to be, ah, interesting to see how the world reorders (or not) when the Ukraine war reaches some sort of conclusion. I think, as I wrote above, that it is important to be aware that for much of the world it's a petty local fracas, not an existential crisis.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
Putin apparently gave a speech in Vladivostok today where he said Russia has “lost nothing” in Ukraine. I imagine the families of the roughly 25,000 dead Russian soldiers would feel somewhat differently, but one gathers Vladimir Vladimirovich measures his gains and losses in rather a different currency.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
I suspect that 25,000 dead is an underestimate.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
Roughly half what we lost in Vietnam in 10 years.
Russia is kicking our ass in "Wars you should have kept the hell out of".
Russia is kicking our ass in "Wars you should have kept the hell out of".
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
Fogbow Word of the Day:
A big THANK YOU to Sam the Centipede for playing.Irredentism is a political and popular movement in which its members claim, reclaim (usually on behalf of their nation ), and seek to occupy territory which they consider "lost" (or "unredeemed"), based on history or legend.
Irredentism - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irredentism
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
Cue the War Crimes Tribunal. Too bad they don't have the "Short drop and a sudden stop" anymore.
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
Maybe this stupid war will be so stupid that Earthlings will stop having wars for a while, going forward into the middle and later phases of the 21st century.
It won't happen on account of the United Nations, but maybe some leaders will recognize that war isn't just horribly destructive, it's becoming unfathomably stupid. And expensive.
Putin might could lose the Crimean Peninsula, which would mean he comes out hugely worse off than if'n he'd just kept his pecker in his pants about Ukraine. Ukraine wasn't going to start a war to get Crimea back, but maybe they'll take it anyway. The world made a mistake, not responding to the seizure of Crimea in 2014.
But it's a stupid, stupid war, poorly planned, poorly executed, and it's a dumpster fire in the middle of an oil spill on top of a slag heap.
At this point, I don't see any probable outcome that doesn't involve Putin being much worse off than before he began it.
'Course, lots of us will feel the effects into the future, too also.
It won't happen on account of the United Nations, but maybe some leaders will recognize that war isn't just horribly destructive, it's becoming unfathomably stupid. And expensive.
Putin might could lose the Crimean Peninsula, which would mean he comes out hugely worse off than if'n he'd just kept his pecker in his pants about Ukraine. Ukraine wasn't going to start a war to get Crimea back, but maybe they'll take it anyway. The world made a mistake, not responding to the seizure of Crimea in 2014.
But it's a stupid, stupid war, poorly planned, poorly executed, and it's a dumpster fire in the middle of an oil spill on top of a slag heap.
At this point, I don't see any probable outcome that doesn't involve Putin being much worse off than before he began it.
'Course, lots of us will feel the effects into the future, too also.
Out from under.
Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
I, and a lot of other people, are going to be very cold this winter because of that stupid war. Just saying.
Hic sunt dracones
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Re: Russia Invades Ukraine
Yeah, that's what I mean. Everything is so connected in the 21st century, a stupid, stupid war is going to affect a million things in a billion different directions, but it's going to have physical impact on Earthlings who live nowhere near and have no connection to either country.
The US is spending a lot of money we don't have. That's going to have an effect here.
I hope that's an incentive for sane people to try to avoid future wars by any reasonable means. The planet is only going to become more connected, not less.
The US is spending a lot of money we don't have. That's going to have an effect here.
I hope that's an incentive for sane people to try to avoid future wars by any reasonable means. The planet is only going to become more connected, not less.
Out from under.