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Re: Ohio Senate race
Posted: Thu Jun 16, 2022 9:05 pm
by pipistrelle
SuzieC wrote: ↑Thu Jun 16, 2022 7:34 pm
raison de arizona wrote: ↑Thu Jun 16, 2022 7:23 pm
SuzieC wrote: ↑Thu Jun 16, 2022 7:19 pm
Oh yeah! I got this today too. And donated.
Me too. The Act Blue account makes it so easy.
Thanks so much for donating in our Ohio Senate race! I really do think we have a good pickup opportunity here. My husband, who is a Dem but not a passionate one like me, thinks Vance is a ridiculous phony. I hope his view resonates among Ohio voters.
He is a complete phony. His fiction sucks too.
Re: Ohio Senate race
Posted: Sun Jun 26, 2022 7:32 pm
by raison de arizona
I don’t know where he is going with this exactly, but I don’t like it.
Re: Ohio Senate race
Posted: Sun Jun 26, 2022 8:44 pm
by pipistrelle
raison de arizona wrote: ↑Sun Jun 26, 2022 7:32 pm
I don’t know where he is going with this exactly, but I don’t like it.
I know where he’s going with it, and it’s somewhere between Father Knows Best and Leave it to Beaver.
And he’s a PHONY.
Re: Ohio Senate race
Posted: Sun Jun 26, 2022 8:52 pm
by Slim Cognito
Cuz stay-at-home moms don't work 90 hours a week?
Re: Ohio Senate race
Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 7:55 pm
by Dr. Ken
Re: Ohio Senate race
Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 8:03 pm
by bob
538 hasn't integrated that poll, but it
predicts Vance will most likely win.
Re: Ohio Senate race
Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 8:28 pm
by pipistrelle
bob wrote: ↑Wed Jul 06, 2022 8:03 pm
538 hasn't integrated that poll, but it
predicts Vance will most likely win.
I don't trust Nate Silver.
Re: Ohio Senate race
Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 10:35 pm
by jez
Hey Foggy and/or Mod type persons, can you go ahead and merge these two?
https://thefogbow.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1233
ETA: I didn't see this earlier thread started by Suzie.
Re: Ohio Senate race
Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:33 pm
by p0rtia
pipistrelle wrote: ↑Wed Jul 06, 2022 8:28 pm
bob wrote: ↑Wed Jul 06, 2022 8:03 pm
538 hasn't integrated that poll, but it
predicts Vance will most likely win.
I don't trust Nate Silver.
Pretty sure a poll in July is not predicting a win in November, is it? More of an "if the election were held today."
Re: Ohio Senate race
Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:41 pm
by bob
p0rtia wrote: ↑Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:33 pmPretty sure a poll in July is not predicting a win in November, is it? More of an "if the election were held today."
538's model is more sophisticated; it does forecast, considering variables such as the time between the poll and the election. But as more data is known, it also updates the chance of winning.
So it can change, sometimes wildly. Especially if there is an October Surprise, like the FBI director deciding to call a candidate an unindicted criminal.
So I wouldn't say "if the election were held today" exactly, but I also wouldn't not say "if the election were held today."
(This is among 538's tricks to be able to say they're very rarely
technically wrong.)
Re: Ohio Senate race
Posted: Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:41 pm
by pipistrelle
p0rtia wrote: ↑Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:33 pm
pipistrelle wrote: ↑Wed Jul 06, 2022 8:28 pm
bob wrote: ↑Wed Jul 06, 2022 8:03 pm
538 hasn't integrated that poll, but it
predicts Vance will most likely win.
I don't trust Nate Silver.
Pretty sure a poll in July is not predicting a win in November, is it? More of an "if the election were held today."
Silver said something on Twitter a while back that removed the trust I already didn't have in him.
Re: Ohio Senate race
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 10:56 am
by p0rtia
pipistrelle wrote: ↑Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:41 pm
p0rtia wrote: ↑Wed Jul 06, 2022 11:33 pm
pipistrelle wrote: ↑Wed Jul 06, 2022 8:28 pm
I don't trust Nate Silver.
Pretty sure a poll in July is not predicting a win in November, is it? More of an "if the election were held today."
Silver said something on Twitter a while back that removed the trust I already didn't have in him.
OMG, he is a twelve year old on twitter: socially inept and fond of making grandiose pronouncements on social issues that are just dumb.
Re: Ohio Senate race
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 8:48 pm
by Foggy
2022 Ohio Senate Race
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 8:48 pm
by jez
Foggy wrote: ↑Thu Jul 07, 2022 8:48 pm
Sure.
Thank you so very much my! You da Rooster!
Re: 2022 Ohio Senate Race
Posted: Thu Jul 07, 2022 8:51 pm
by Foggy
I overcame my evil nature through great effort.
See Jez's signature.
Re: 2022 Ohio Senate Race
Posted: Fri Jul 08, 2022 12:08 am
by RTH10260
Your efforts will be taken into consideration when ringing at the pearly gates.
Re: 2022 Ohio Senate Race
Posted: Sun Jul 24, 2022 11:43 am
by SuzieC
Innovation Ohio poll released on Friday had Tim Ryan up over JD Vance 46% to 41%.
Re: 2022 Ohio Senate Race
Posted: Sun Jul 24, 2022 11:43 am
by Volkonski
Re: 2022 Ohio Senate Race
Posted: Mon Jul 25, 2022 2:25 pm
by raison de arizona
Republicans are starting to think JD Vance is blowing it in Ohio
Re: 2022 Ohio Senate Race
Posted: Mon Jul 25, 2022 4:50 pm
by Ben-Prime
This article made me glad that I am a TDB subscriber. It was my lunchtime reading at work today.
Re: 2022 Ohio Senate Race
Posted: Mon Jul 25, 2022 5:55 pm
by pipistrelle
I suspect he doesn't want to mix with potential actual hillbillies.
Re: 2022 Ohio Senate Race
Posted: Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:03 pm
by raison de arizona
pipistrelle wrote: ↑Mon Jul 25, 2022 5:55 pm
I suspect he doesn't want to mix with potential actual hillbillies.
What are you saying, that he wasn't rubbing elbows with them at *checks notes* Yale? Or working in corporate law? Shirly when he was a principal at Peter Thiel's venture capital firm, I would think?
Re: 2022 Ohio Senate Race
Posted: Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:17 pm
by pipistrelle
raison de arizona wrote: ↑Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:03 pm
pipistrelle wrote: ↑Mon Jul 25, 2022 5:55 pm
I suspect he doesn't want to mix with potential actual hillbillies.
What are you saying, that he wasn't rubbing elbows with them at *checks notes* Yale? Or working in corporate law? Shirly when he was a principal at Peter Thiel's venture capital firm, I would think?
Oh, when he was writing his book with "hillbilly" in the title with only vague references to hillbilly country or anything hillbilly. Yep, he dang sure missed Kentucky so dang much he mentions it in a passing way that I could have managed with five minutes online. And his poor impoverished hillbilly registered nurse mother. Oh.
My favorite moment from his book was when he was so tired from working he forgot to pick up his paycheck that he desperately needed.
Back in the day I was actually on the poor side, and all I would have been thinking of was getting off work so I could get that paycheck.
Re: 2022 Ohio Senate Race
Posted: Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:55 pm
by Gregg
He grew up 15 miles from me, it's a lot closer to the neighborhood from
The Brady Bunch than actual DTA* Appalachia. Middletown is a suburb of Cincinnati and was defined as a town pretty much by a steel mill. There are a lot of people from Appalachia in Middletown, and in Cincinnati in general. A lot of us have pretty close ties to our ancestral roots a hundred miles or so away. But as much as I and JD both like to talk about our hillbilly past, it's not ours, it's our parents and more our grandparents.
JD is like me in a lot of ways. Our families are from Eastern Kentucky, and we both grew up in the suburbs and went to Ivy League schools. I suspect the big difference is I was in the Army for 9 years and I was in Argillite earlier this month.
*Down Town Argillite
Re: 2022 Ohio Senate Race
Posted: Mon Jul 25, 2022 7:22 pm
by pipistrelle
Gregg wrote: ↑Mon Jul 25, 2022 6:55 pm
He grew up 15 miles from me, it's a lot closer to the neighborhood from
The Brady Bunch than actual DTA* Appalachia. Middletown is a suburb of Cincinnati and was defined as a town pretty much by a steel mill. There are a lot of people from Appalachia in Middletown, and in Cincinnati in general. A lot of us have pretty close ties to our ancestral roots a hundred miles or so away. But as much as I and JD both like to talk about our hillbilly past, it's not ours, it's our parents and more our grandparents.
JD is like me in a lot of ways. Our families are from Eastern Kentucky, and we both grew up in the suburbs and went to Ivy League schools. I suspect the big difference is I was in the Army for 9 years and I was in Argillite earlier this month.
*Down Town Argillite
He didn't describe Kentucky. He doesn't even talk about his supposed hillbilly past. His complaints, and they are mostly complaints, are about his supposedly crazy family except for his wonderful gun-toting grandma. Little of what he talks about is related to his surroundings. It didn't sound especially like a steel town. It could have been anywhere. It was a bizarre.
At one point early he mentions the Scots-Irish tradition of Appalachia and I think, great, he's going to expand on that, maybe go into the musical influences, etc. But yeah, again it was something he probably saw online.
I think an actual hillbilly would make him afraid of cooties.