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2022 Georgia Senate Race

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bob
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2022 Georgia Senate Race

#651

Post by bob »

538's live blog is reporting the counties' percentages are breaking roughly similar to how they broke in November.

In other words, if the trends continue, Warlock will win by a narrow margin.
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much ado
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2022 Georgia Senate Race

#652

Post by much ado »

Reality Check wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 8:03 pm
RTH10260 wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 7:44 pm NYT keeps running results if page kept open.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... unoff.html
Nope. it's blocked.
Here's a gift link...

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... =share-url

Is that better?
somerset
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2022 Georgia Senate Race

#653

Post by somerset »

Reality Check wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 8:03 pm
RTH10260 wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 7:44 pm NYT keeps running results if page kept open.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... unoff.html
Nope. it's blocked.
I'm seeing it. 55.8% to 44.2% with 45% of the vote in.
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Reality Check
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2022 Georgia Senate Race

#654

Post by Reality Check »

much ado wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 8:05 pm :snippity:
Is that better?
Yes, thank you! I had to log in to my free account to see the results.
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pipistrelle
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2022 Georgia Senate Race

#655

Post by pipistrelle »

B361394C-74E9-46AB-B058-2815DA61BA78.jpeg
B361394C-74E9-46AB-B058-2815DA61BA78.jpeg (122 KiB) Viewed 852 times
48 percent
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pipistrelle
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2022 Georgia Senate Race

#656

Post by pipistrelle »

bob wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 8:05 pm 538's live blog is reporting the counties' percentages are breaking roughly similar to how they broke in November.

In other words, if the trends continue, :thumbsup: Warlock will win by a narrow margin.
:fingerwag:
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pipistrelle
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2022 Georgia Senate Race

#657

Post by pipistrelle »

Walker is picking up. :p
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Reality Check
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#658

Post by Reality Check »

NYT needle now shows leaning Warnock, 71% chance to win. Projected margin 1.8%. Many stupid people in Georgia.
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Reality Check
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#659

Post by Reality Check »

NYT:

Projected margin Warnock +2.5%
Probability Warnock: 78%
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bob
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2022 Georgia Senate Race

#660

Post by bob »

pipistrelle wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 8:12 pm
In other words, if the trends continue, :thumbsup: Warlock will win by a narrow margin.
:fingerwag:
Excuse me, Senator Werewolf. :towel:
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Reality Check
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#661

Post by Reality Check »

Warnock still leading but not going in the right direction. 61% Warnock. DeKalb County only at 5% reporting.
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bob
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2022 Georgia Senate Race

#662

Post by bob »

NYT paused its reporting with Walker leading by around 5000 votes.

Now 25,000 votes. (AP also has that count.)
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Reality Check
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#663

Post by Reality Check »

NYT:

We have temporarily paused updates to our estimates while we investigate a data issue.

Showing Walker ahead. WTF?
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Kendra
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2022 Georgia Senate Race

#664

Post by Kendra »

:smoking:

CNN says Walker's up 50.5 to 49.5
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SuzieC
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#665

Post by SuzieC »

I am confident that when DeKalb and Fulton counties come in Warnock will win by a comfortable margin.
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Reality Check
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#666

Post by Reality Check »

NYT shows only 5% of DeKalb County counted with Warnock getting 75% of what is counted. 258,000 votes left. WTF are they doing?
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#667

Post by New Turtle »

Most of the Walker counties are at 80-90% reporting, Dekalb is at 5% and Fulton at about 55%
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#668

Post by SuzieC »

Small rural red counties are reporting fast as there is only one race on the ballot. Metro Atlanta is more complicated.
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#669

Post by Reality Check »

Dekalb just came in with a huge hunk of votes. Warnock back ahead.
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#670

Post by New Turtle »

Dekalb County drop puts Warnock back in the lead
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#671

Post by Dr. Ken »

Screenshot_20221206_205745_Chrome.jpg
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ImageImagePhilly Boondoggle
New Turtle
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#672

Post by New Turtle »

I think this race is gonna be callable for Warnock in the next 1-2 hours
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Reality Check
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#673

Post by Reality Check »

New Turtle wrote: Tue Dec 06, 2022 8:58 pm I think this race is gonna be callable for Warnock in the next 1-2 hours
If the NYT is right there are are almost 1/2 million votes out in counties that Warnock is heavily favored and piss left for Walker. Warnock is 1/2% ahead right now. The NYT needle is broken.
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much ado
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2022 Georgia Senate Race

#674

Post by much ado »

Here's an interesting recent post from the Five Thirty-Eight blog...
Geoffrey Skelley
Dec. 6, 9:00 pm

We now have 95 percent or more of the expected vote reporting from 93 counties, more than half of the 159 in Georgia. In those counties, which are mostly GOP-heavy rural areas, Walker leads by 26 points. But he’s actually doing about 0.3 points worse by margin in those counties than he did in November, and since Warnock led the initial vote by 1 point, Walker needs more. You can see this to some extent in the table below, as Warnock is tending to outperform the November vote margin in these places more often than Walker.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/g ... ck-walker/
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2022 Georgia Senate Race

#675

Post by RTH10260 »

Oooops - Walker just now 2000 votes over Warnock
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