Fogbow

MAGA Rejected + Early Debrief Call
By Ezra Levin, Indivisible co-founder

Last night we witnessed a history-defying rejection of MAGA Republicans.

Before I get to my top three takeaways, I first have to say one thing clearly:

This is a stunning, historic over-performance by Democrats. All the smart money headed into Tuesday was on major Republican gains. Those expectations were turned on their head last night. The much-touted “Red Wave” never appeared. Democrats are on track to win most of the toss-up House races, to gain governorships and state legislatures, to welcome Senator John Fetterman, and more.

We didn’t win everything, and there’s a lot still up in the air, but let’s be clear: This outcome defies political gravity. There are few more ironclad rules in politics than that the party in power loses the midterms — usually badly. That didn’t happen last night. And that is a huge, huge deal.

Every election cycle includes some painful losses — it’s inevitable. But we should feel like we made history, because we did. With that as preface, here are my three top takeaways:

My three top takeaways:

Voters roundly rejected MAGAs
Delivering for voters works
The grassroots drives wins

orlylicious wrote: ↑Sun May 30, 2021 10:40 pm Since the #AZAudit topic is veering off track, will say it again here...

Will take the other side of the bet that Democrats are going to lose 2022. We think these bogus audits will end up being nothing, like we've seen before, the GOP screws up and doesn't win back either house in 2022, the disgraced loser doesn't run again, and demographics keep moving and Democrats win the White House again in 2024.

Democrats won the mid-terms in 2018, and the 2022 Senate map is much worse for the GOP (20 seats vs. 14 for Democrats). Instead of focusing on the future, Republicans are stuck on 2020, the twice impeached loser who still has terrible polling, and tearing each other apart (see Paul Ryan, Liz Cheney).

The GOP is stuck on Dr. Seuss while Democrats are giving people real relief, solving COVID and making the system fairer.

We have to work hard but we've shown we can do this and am confident we will do it again. There's really no contest on the issues, and demographics are marching forward without pause.

OL,
You were brave to post this is May of 2021, and your predictions were far more correct than those of the pollsters and pundits. So kudos to you for keeping the faith when many (myself included) were far more pessimistic.

Orlylicious, Fidei Defensor, Defender of the Faith

Another post mortem:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/2 ... s-00071065

The Republican National Committee is launching a review of the party’s performance in the midterm election and bringing on a team of outside advisers to help guide strategy, as the GOP reckons with its disappointing performance in the election.

The RNC is tapping nearly a dozen people to serve in what it’s calling a “Republican Party Advisory Council” – a group that includes former Donald Trump White House adviser Kellyanne Conway, evangelical leader Tony Perkins and a pair of Senate candidates who ran this year.

Separately, the committee is starting what senior Republicans are describing as a “review” of the party’s mechanics during the midterms, which is being led by RNC members. The RNC is expected to publish the findings sometime during the first half of 2023.

They did that in what 2012? Then they threw out the findings. Guess it was fake news

AndyinPA wrote: ↑Tue Nov 29, 2022 2:59 pm Another post mortem:

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/2 ... s-00071065

The Republican National Committee is launching a review of the party’s performance in the midterm election and bringing on a team of outside advisers to help guide strategy, as the GOP reckons with its disappointing performance in the election.

The RNC is tapping nearly a dozen people to serve in what it’s calling a “Republican Party Advisory Council” – a group that includes former Donald Trump White House adviser Kellyanne Conway, evangelical leader Tony Perkins and a pair of Senate candidates who ran this year.

Separately, the committee is starting what senior Republicans are describing as a “review” of the party’s mechanics during the midterms, which is being led by RNC members. The RNC is expected to publish the findings sometime during the first half of 2023.

Didn't they do this last time in 2012 and then they picked trump?

An advisory council that includes the former guy, the one well past best sell date ?

Of course he will be member by name only, nobody expects he will spend any of his precious time left with brain storming or promote anything else than stolen elections. Honorable mentioning is just to please the fan base.

"Mechanics"? Can't admit their beliefs are out of step with the country. They will bend us to their will, dagnabbit.

Slim Cognito wrote: ↑Tue Nov 29, 2022 3:01 pm They did that in what 2012? Then they threw out the findings. Guess it was fake news

Thanks for specifying the date. I remember that so well. I think it was Priebus coming out and saying, "Clearly we need to appeal to a larger audience; we need to rethink our policies and reach out to diverse groups."

Which within the year became "Our policies are great. We need to reframe them so that more people realize that we are the ones who are really going to help them."

IOW, lie about your policies don't adapt them.

And here we are....

much ado wrote: ↑Tue Nov 29, 2022 1:11 pm Orlylicious, Fidei Defensor, Defender of the Faith

Fidel who?

I knowed yuse was a bunch of pinkos...

No-one remembers that I was always on the positive side too... Slarti gets all the girls :*(

pipistrelle wrote: ↑Tue Nov 29, 2022 3:41 pm "Mechanics"? Can't admit their beliefs are out of step with the country. They will bend us to their will, dagnabbit.

It's not that they don't know/admit that they are out of step with the country. Not the issue at hand. They want to know how to win despite being out of step with the country.

RTH10260 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 29, 2022 3:08 pm An advisory council that includes the former guy, the one well past best sell date ?

Of course he will be member by name only, nobody expects he will spend any of his precious time left with brain storming or promote anything else than stolen elections. Honorable mentioning is just to please the fan base.

Doesn't include Trump, they were using too many words to say Kellyanne Conway.

...a group that includes former Donald Trump White House adviser Kellyanne Conway,...

Suranis wrote: ↑Tue Nov 29, 2022 4:49 pm No-one remembers that I was always on the positive side too... Slarti gets all the girls :*(

Technically speaking, I was just saying that the polls were all crap. And I'm not someone who's romantic life you want to envy...

Just sayin'

Gregg wrote: ↑Tue Nov 29, 2022 4:53 pm

RTH10260 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 29, 2022 3:08 pm An advisory council that includes the former guy, the one well past best sell date ?

Of course he will be member by name only, nobody expects he will spend any of his precious time left with brain storming or promote anything else than stolen elections. Honorable mentioning is just to please the fan base.

Doesn't include Trump, they were using too many words to say Kellyanne Conway.

...a group that includes former Donald Trump White House adviser Kellyanne Conway,...

but... but.. but... the line break! the line ends in former Donald Trump....

(or course I should have noted that they did not mention any honorary title )

Everybody gets huge for keeping the faith, Democrats won again!

An even bigger majority for the Senate (judges, judges, judges) and we kept the House margin to what it was for Democrats in 2020. Democrats got a huge amount done with a tight House and tighter Senate... the stupid MAGAt party will get nothing done.

I felt confident about this topic because among other things 1) the GOP stupidly keeps avoiding early and mail-in voting, conceding 2 out of 3 voting methods (my concern tweets constantly remind MAGA voters #HoldTheLine, no early or mail-in votes, even though the GOP was #1 in those things) and 2) the demographic shifts aren't going away (look at the Georgia "donut", the counties around Atlanta over the past 20 years, it's astonishing). And folks are moving from the northeast to these states, bringing more progressive attitudes. The GOP keeps shrinking as their voters die (from COVID among other things) and their culture wars that only appeal to a sliver of the electorate.

After 2018, 2020, and now 2022, they seem to have learned nothing and that's great for Team Blue. (I am an extremely enthusiastic #MikeLindellForRNCChairman supporter on Twitter.) We can do better as well, but after an intense, emotional election slog, through the holidays Democrats deserve to sit back and enjoy the victories while the GOP tears itself apart. Think about this vs. how we felt in 2016, what a difference.

Thanks again to everyone keeping this topic positive, it meant a lot to have an encouraging place to post good news. We had faith, we believed what appeared impossible, and we've left the 2022 cycle as one for the record books (hasn't been since the 1930's all senators in the president's party kept their seats). Of course, we had a lot of luck, not least of which was that the Birthers chose to keep their powder dry and didn't get Kamala Harris disqualified and Joe DeMaio's constant "Democratic House members should switch to the GOP and flip the house" since March 2021 didn't happen.

Congratulations, everybody! Take a bow, three elections in a row. And you know the topic is already there -- Election 2024: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

orlylicious wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 9:10 am Everybody gets huge for keeping the faith, Democrats won again!

An even bigger majority for the Senate (judges, judges, judges) and we kept the House margin to what it was for Democrats in 2020. Democrats got a huge amount done with a tight House and tighter Senate... the stupid MAGAt party will get nothing done.

I felt confident about this topic because among other things 1) the GOP stupidly keeps avoiding early and mail-in voting, conceding 2 out of 3 voting methods (my concern tweets constantly remind MAGA voters #HoldTheLine, no early or mail-in votes, even though the GOP was #1 in those things) and 2) the demographic shifts aren't going away (look at the Georgia "donut", the counties around Atlanta over the past 20 years, it's astonishing). And folks are moving from the northeast to these states, bringing more progressive attitudes. The GOP keeps shrinking as their voters die (from COVID among other things) and their culture wars that only appeal to a sliver of the electorate.

After 2018, 2020, and now 2022, they seem to have learned nothing and that's great for Team Blue. We can do better as well, but after an intense, emotional election slog, through the holidays Democrats deserve to sit back and enjoy the victories while the GOP tears itself apart. Think about this vs. how we felt in 2016, what a difference.

Thanks again to everyone keeping this topic positive, we had faith, we believed what appeared impossible, and we've left the 2022 cycle as one for the record books (hasn't been since the 1930's all senators in the president's party kept their seats). Of course, we had a lot of luck, not least of which was that the Birthers chose to keep their powder dry and didn't get Kamala Harris disqualified and Joe DeMaio's constant "Democratic House members should switch to the GOP and flip the house" since March 2021 didn't happen.

Congratulations, everybody! Take a bow, three elections in a row. And you know the topic is already there -- Election 2024: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

Thanks to you, Orlylicious, for keeping all of ours spirits up even when things were looking bleak!

Hooray!!!!!!! Our merry warrior kept us committed and sane!!!!!!!! We did it!!!!!!!

This thread kept me (relatively) happy through the dark days.

Me, too. I didn't participate in the thread often, but I appreciated that it was there because it was a hope that I held.

I have to admit, when this topic first was created I knocked myself silly doing this

I was still mired in the 2016 funk and the daily awfulness of That Man. But whaddya know. I was wrong. Yay!!

Yeah, good job, Orlylicious.

Now can you please promise us a Democratic House, Democratic Senate, and a Democrat in the White House in 2024?

AndyinPA wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 11:34 am Me, too. I didn't participate in the thread often, but I appreciated that it was there because it was a hope that I held.

I didn't even lurk in this thread. I was afraid that there might be too much hubris and it would jinx the real-world election.

That said, I am happy that the red wave turned out to be a ripple in a small pond. It could have been much worse.

Had the Trump-endorsed candidates done better than they did, it could have been a portent of the 2024 presidential election, with TFG a major participant. As it is, I think and hope (I also hope this doesn't jinx it) that he will do poorly in the primaries and not get the nomination.

I also think that the R's will not be so quick to nominate MAGA candidates for House, Senate and state elections. If we're lucky, they will take one baby step back from the fringe.

Perhaps, when TFG loses a couple of primaries that he won in 2016 and 2020, he will get the message and withdraw, but I doubt it. He will probably start suing everyone in sight, saying that the primaries were stolen from him. He may even sue the RNC, asking that he be installed as the candidate, despite the delegate count against him.

noblepa wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:51 pm He may even sue the RNC, asking that he be installed as the candidate, despite the delegate count against him.

I think we may have a winner.

Slim Cognito wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 1:04 pm

noblepa wrote: ↑Wed Dec 07, 2022 12:51 pm He may even sue the RNC, asking that he be installed as the candidate, despite the delegate count against him.

I think we may have a winner.

But if Mr. Pillowbrain is RNC Chair, he will default on the lawsuit and allow Trump to win.