Re: NATO - what does the future hold?
Posted: Fri Sep 30, 2022 7:07 pm
Falsehoods Unchallenged Only Fester and Grow
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Wonder what all those countries have in common that Germany, France, Italy and others who make noises about sending help to Ukraine but who haven't followed through on their promises don't... Could it be that they have lived under Russian domination and know what would await Ukraine if they don't kick Russia out? Gosh, hard to figure this puzzle out...
I think that's unfair: those countries are supplying military aid, but not always making a big fuss about it. They could do more, but that's a different point. Germany has been weird; I think it's complex there. Remember too that East Germany was a Soviet satellite.johnpcapitalist wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 11:34 am Wonder what all those countries have in common that Germany, France, Italy and others who make noises about sending help to Ukraine but who haven't followed through on their promises don't...
Including Ukraine as a member of NATO.Sam the Centipede wrote: ↑Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:07 amI think that's unfair: those countries are supplying military aid, but not always making a big fuss about it. They could do more, but that's a different point. Germany has been weird; I think it's complex there. Remember too that East Germany was a Soviet satellite.johnpcapitalist wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 11:34 am Wonder what all those countries have in common that Germany, France, Italy and others who make noises about sending help to Ukraine but who haven't followed through on their promises don't...
Your underlying point about the countries that have suffered the Russian terror being most strident about the need to stop or contain Russian fascism, imperialism and genocide is undeniably correct, i agree.
Where it will all end? The population of Russia seems disturbingly complicit in the war. When Russians complain it tends to be about how the war is being prosecuted and the need for better equipment and training for their soldiers to fight the evil West and complete the suppression or genocide of their neighbors, not about the lack of morality or sense in the whole misbegotten ego trip of Putin and the russofascists.
If Russia sees sense and withdraws back inside its own borders, what is to prevent them from rearming, retraining, applying the lessons learnt from this invasion and starting again?
Assuming rational actors…W. Kevin Vicklund wrote: ↑Fri Dec 02, 2022 10:35 amIncluding Ukraine as a member of NATO.Sam the Centipede wrote: ↑Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:07 am If Russia sees sense and withdraws back inside its own borders, what is to prevent them from rearming, retraining, applying the lessons learnt from this invasion and starting again?
Things have changed from when I wrote the original post in October. Germany is still dragging their feet on some equipment, but Italy and France are starting to step up. They were hesitant initially to start moving away from Russian oil as aggressively as others were.Sam the Centipede wrote: ↑Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:07 amI think that's unfair: those countries are supplying military aid, but not always making a big fuss about it. They could do more, but that's a different point. Germany has been weird; I think it's complex there. Remember too that East Germany was a Soviet satellite.johnpcapitalist wrote: ↑Sun Oct 02, 2022 11:34 am Wonder what all those countries have in common that Germany, France, Italy and others who make noises about sending help to Ukraine but who haven't followed through on their promises don't...
Russia will do a fine job of keeping itself from rearming and from improving. For the last 30 years, the country has been a kleptocracy, from top to bottom. Corruption is not limited to the Putin cronies at the top skimming off billion-dollar chunks.Sam the Centipede wrote: ↑Fri Dec 02, 2022 6:07 am If Russia sees sense and withdraws back inside its own borders, what is to prevent them from rearming, retraining, applying the lessons learnt from this invasion and starting again?
An analysis I read suggested that using battlefield nuclear weapons wouldn't be militarily productive for the Russians and that they know that – I have no knowledge on the matter so I can't assess how plausible it was. Firing long range rockets would obviously risk all sorts of horrors; my guess is massive targeting of industrial and military sites, but, again, I know nothing.
I don't disagree with your general or specific analysis except that I think it underestimates Russia's resilience, especially if the population engages with the Greater Rus ideal and the notion that the West is out to destroy Mother Russia. The latter will certainly appear to be true to Russians if severe sanctions are effective and NATO countries have (or are beloved to have) weapons targeted at Russia.
Germany has some problems iirc with sending a certain tank type that relies heavily on an ammunition built in and or licensed from Switzerland. As part of the Swiss long standing (and sometimes shaky) policy of not allowing purchased war time supplies to be forwarded by the initial buyer, as it was intended to be for self defensive use only (part of the purchase agreement).johnpcapitalist wrote: ↑Fri Dec 02, 2022 5:30 pmThings have changed from when I wrote the original post in October. Germany is still dragging their feet on some equipment, but Italy and France are starting to step up. They were hesitant initially to start moving away from Russian oil as aggressively as others were.
The problem with Nukes is that even if you have it sealed airtight with nothing to corrode the insides of the rocket or whatever, if you don't process the Nuclear material periodically it will become useless. The very fact of it being radioactive means that the Atoms of the material are splitting and changing into something else, and those atoms are no linger Fissionable and wont participate in a Fission reaction, and worse will probably block Neutrons flying about that are needed for the reaction to happen. So, those new atoms need to be removed periodically.
Am i the only one that is a bit uneasy at this kind of talk?Suranis wrote: ↑Sat Dec 03, 2022 4:42 pmThe problem with Nukes is that even if you have it sealed airtight with nothing to corrode the insides of the rocket or whatever, if you don't process the Nuclear material periodically it will become useless. The very fact of it being radioactive means that the Atoms of the material are splitting and changing into something else, and those atoms are no linger Fissionable and wont participate in a Fission reaction, and worse will probably block Neutrons flying about that are needed for the reaction to happen. So, those new atoms need to be removed periodically.
In short, if you launch a 20 year old perfectly intact Nuclear bomb, it probably wont explode.
How many of those Nukes are therefore useless? I doubt even the Russians know, but I doubt anyone believes their on paper Nuclear capacity is anywhere close to reality.
Finland and Sweden signed a three-way agreement with Turkey in 2022 aimed at overcoming Ankara's objections to their membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
They applied in May to join NATO in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but Turkey objected and accused the countries of harbouring militants, including from the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party
One sticking point has been extraditions of people Turkey regards as terrorists. Ankara expressed disappointment with a decision late last year from Sweden's top court to stop a request to extradite a journalist with alleged links to Islamic scholar Fetullah Gulen, blamed by Turkey for an attempted coup.
The parliament voted to accept the terms of the NATO treaty by 184 votes against seven, with one abstention and seven lawmakers being absent.
Finland and Sweden dropped their decades-long policies of military non-alignment last May and applied to join the alliance amid concern about the military threat posed by Russia.
"Russia is not the neighbor we imagined," Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin said at the time.
The two Typhoons were scrambled on Tuesday to intercept an Il-78 Midas refuelling plane flying between St Petersburg and Kaliningrad.
The plane had failed to communicate with air traffic control in Estonia.
The British and German air forces are currently conducting planned joint Nato air policing in the region.
The interception itself was routine, but it is the first time such an operation has been carried out together by the two countries.
The incident comes amid heightened tensions between Nato and Russia over the Russian invasion of Ukraine, although there is no evidence of any link with Tuesday's reported collision between a Russian fighter jet and a US drone over the Black Sea.
After escorting the Midas, the two jets were redirected to intercept an An-148 airliner that was also passing close to Estonian airspace.
The jets are part of the RAF's 140 Expeditionary Air Wing and the German 71 Tactical Air Wing Richthofen.
Sweden won’t be in a vulnerable security situation even if Finland joins NATO first, the Finnish president said Sunday, as both Nordic membership candidates negotiate bilateral military pacts with the United States.
“It is possible that Finland joins NATO before Sweden,” Finnish President Sauli Niinistö said in interview published by the Swedish public broadcaster SVT on Sunday. “Should we have refused Turkey’s offer to ratify? That sounds a bit crazy. It would have been a terribly difficult situation if we had said ‘no’ to Ankara.”
Niinistö referred to his Friday visit to Ankara where Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that his government would move forward with ratifying Finland’s NATO application, paving the way for the country to join the military bloc, but wouldn’t ratify Sweden’s bid before disputes between Ankara and Stockholm are solved.
Both Finland and Sweden applied to become NATO members 10 months ago in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, abandoning decades of nonalignment.
NATO requires the unanimous approval of its 30 existing members to expand, and Turkey and Hungary are the only countries that haven’t yet ratified the Nordic duo’s bids.
Should Sweden’s NATO membership talks with Turkey drag on for a long time, many Swedish security policy experts agree it would put Stockholm in a vulnerable military position in the Baltic Sea region.
Niinistö said that Finland, Sweden and Denmark are currently in separate talks with the United States on security matters in an attempt to reach a bilateral military pact similar to what Norway has concluded with Washington before.
“I think that is a big change, almost bigger than NATO membership,” Niinistö said of the ongoing talks with the U.S. when asked what happens to Sweden’s security if talks to join NATO drag on. “It means a lot if we (Nordic countries) all have a direct and a quite similar (military) agreement with the United States.”