Fogbow

Volkonski wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 9:10 pm ... Ryan Goodman
@rgoodlaw
·
Mar 19, 2022
With reports "several thousand Mariupol residents have been taken to Russian territory" according to City Council (h/t @jimsciutto)

1. Equals war crime and element for Crime Against Humanity. #InternationalCriminalCourt articles

The end game. No one is going to stop Putin. Appeasement policy in the 1930s to avoid war with Germany - how did work out? Answer: not well.

Lani wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 11:44 pm

Volkonski wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 9:10 pm ... Ryan Goodman
@rgoodlaw
·
Mar 19, 2022
With reports "several thousand Mariupol residents have been taken to Russian territory" according to City Council (h/t @jimsciutto)

1. Equals war crime and element for Crime Against Humanity. #InternationalCriminalCourt articles

The end game. No one is going to stop Putin. Appeasement policy in the 1930s to avoid war with Germany - how did work out? Answer: not well.

The deportation of Mariupol residents sounds like part of a plan to solidify Russian control over SE Ukraine, as a prelude to the partition the country. Control of Mariupol and the surrounding area, in addition to pre-existing de facto control over Donetsk and Luhansk, would give the Russians a land bridge to the Krym. If complete subjugation of Ukraine proves impossible, this may be the "win" that Russia attempts to take away from the war.

jcolvin2 wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 11:54 pm
The deportation of Mariupol residents sounds like part of a plan to solidify Russian control over SE Ukraine, as a prelude to the partition the country. Control of Mariupol and the surrounding area, in addition to pre-existing de facto control over Donetsk and Luhansk, would give the Russians a land bridge to the Krym. If complete subjugation of Ukraine proves impossible, this may be the "win" that Russia attempts to take away from the war.

Or the classic way of conquering in antiquity...remove much of the native population [genocide, slavery, ect], replace with your own, and those that remain will be docile and happy for being alive and/or free....

Lani wrote: ↑Sat Mar 19, 2022 11:44 pm The end game. No one is going to stop Putin. Appeasement policy in the 1930s to avoid war with Germany - how did work out? Answer: not well.

Excuse me. This is not the same thing at all and it's frankly insulting that you bring up the comparison with appeasement.

"Appeasement" in 1938 was an agreement that Hitler could have the Sudetenland, the area which contained Czechoslovakia's defenses, in return for an agreement that Hitler wold go no further. Hitler later broke that agreement. The agreement left Czechoslovakia defenseless. I've heard it argued that it also gave England precious time to prepare for the war, but it does not change the fact that when Hitler's tanks rolled in the Chechs could not fight them.

In this scenario they are giving the Ukrainians with all the weapons they require so they can actually fight, and they are holding their ground. This is exactly the opposite of appeasement, this is saying "This is the line we will not allow you to cross. There is another line where we will intervene directly."

As a European I am enraged that you would even compare the two things. How dare you. It is ignorant and it is dismissive of the real vital help that Europe and your country are giving. It is dismissive of the betrayal that the Chechs suffered. Just to male your faraway pronunciations shocking to the reader with comparisons to World War 2 history.

Yes you could argue what else they could be doing, but don't you even DARE make asinine comparisons like that. Your country IS helping.

Frankly there is a lot of Russian propaganda out there trying to persuade the population that your country are useless and weak and you should just persuade them to give up. I think you should stop listening to it, and you should NOT give into despair.

I'm sorry if I came across as insulting, but this pissed me off.

It's ok if you disagree with me.

Of course, I don't agree with you, but I won't insult you. If it helps, I'll use the word acquiescence instead of appeasement. Ukrainians are now being deported from their homeland, if they aren't dead yet. People lack food, water, heat, and medical aid as the bombing continues. While the economic sanctions are having an impact on Russia, the horrors continue.

Suranis wrote: ↑Sun Mar 20, 2022 12:44 am I'm sorry if I came across as insulting, but this pissed me off.

Yo, that was pretty harsh, dude.

1938 or 1968, hey man, I wasn't there. But it takes about 6 seconds on Google to reveal a lot of discussion along these lines.

The Crisis in Ukraine Has Disturbing Echoes of the 1930s
https://time.com/6152294/ukraine-invasion-europe-1930s/

Ukraine crisis is nothing like invasions of Czechoslovakia
https://theconversation.com/ukraine-cri ... akia-25169

Czech, Slovak descendants in Iowa see parallels of 1968 Czechoslovakia invasion in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
https://www.thegazette.com/history/czec ... -invasion/

Czech ambassador: Ukraine invasion ‘has a lot of emotional connection with my country’
https://jewishinsider.com/2022/02/czech ... y-country/

The Invasion of Ukraine Brings Back Prague Spring Memories
https://www.wsj.com/articles/kyiv-bring ... 1646257660

Memory of 1938 hangs heavy in Munich as Ukrainian president calls for action
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... kiy-russia
"What do appeasement attempts lead to?", the Ukrainian president asked.

Just offering this a chill-pill. Make love not war.

First of all I didn't insult you. I said your ideas were ignorant, not you.

But you have to admit, its not JUST Sanctions that other countries are doing to help.

They are sending weapons, food, and ammo. The US is feeding the Ukrainians satellite intelligence so they know where the Russians are. Etc etc. It is so far from the "appeasement of the 1938 its just not funny. The Chechs were stripped of their ability to fight, allowing the Germans to roll over them. The Ukrainians are being given the ability to fight.

And of course everyone wants to turn everything into WW2 because that's everything they know. If you want to make an actual WW2 parallel for this situation, its the Lend Lease program that the US used to send weapons, money and equipment to the Russians, without which the Russians would not have been able to fight the Germans and which eventually lead to the German defeat.

And as I said of course there is shit out there blaming NATO for all this, and blaming the West for the atrocities the Russians are doing. That's the Russian Propaganda arm doing its job. Everything is everyone else's fault.

Mariopol is a city under siege. Sieges are horrible, nasty things where the objective is basically to starve the enemy into submission. In medieval times they took months, becasue the nice images of battering down the walls in a day and then going in mano a mano is a modern fiction. Basically either you starved or the surrounding army starved. How exactly is a city that is surrounded evidence that the West is not sending food? Food cant get in there becasue the Russians are stopping it getting in there, and for no other reason.

But it's the Russians who are at fault for Maripol. NOT the West.

In a medieval siege, you could also run out of water and have some nasty pathogens build up in less-than-sanitary circumstances.

Also modern times...

Medieval sieges at least didn't have aerial bombs.

All true, but just trying to give some perspective. I grew up near a Castle that was blown apart by Cromwell's Army and the Catholic leaders were hung from its Keep. Cannons made Castles obsolete.

I walked past a reminder of how bad Sieges were every day going to school.


Since you mention aerial bombs, it is a fact the Russians are not really using planes that much in this war. Its something that has been remarked on all the time by people who actually know what they are talking about. There is some talk of Bombers launching missiles from inside Belarus, but actual airstrikes as we would understand them haven't really been happening. Plus the Ukrainian Airforce is still operating.

One reason could be (speculating here) that Putin does not want to provoke the West into a a No Fly Zone. Right now a no fly zone would not have much effect and would be extremely dangerous.

Yeah, as bad as the Russians have done so far, it looks like the world is pouring weapons into Ukraine, putting them in position to kill even more Russian invaders.

The cyberwar seems to be being won by those supporting Ukraine too also. Is it true Elon Musk is feeding satellite data to help the Ukrainians?

I imagine the countries that were next on Putin's list are feeling a bit better about things.

Sounds like an audition for one of the newly vacant Russian general officer positions in Ukraine

Isn't that a rehash from Trumps election fail......

Trump already lost, Only the details are being worked out and he
entered the looting stage a few days ago, as every single corrupt
Trump Whitehouse official and family member is enacting their
exit strategy with any money/jewellery/etc. that they can get
their hands on.

Suranis wrote: ↑Sun Mar 20, 2022 1:38 pm One reason could be (speculating here) that Putin does not want to provoke the West into a a No Fly Zone. Right now a no fly zone would not have much effect and would be extremely dangerous.

I also suspect a big part of it is cost. The price of operating such aircraft has already resulted in limited training time for Russian pilots, and compared to artillery using bombers would be a lot more expensive.

So not only is Putin giving up all the economic gains Russia has made in the recent past, he’s also chasing away the best and brightest citizens of Russia. What a gift to the countries they settle in! It just makes it harder for Russia to recover. Putin seriously underestimated the results of his actions.

MN-Skeptic wrote: ↑Tue Mar 22, 2022 10:30 pm So not only is Putin giving up all the economic gains Russia has made in the recent past, he’s also chasing away the best and brightest citizens of Russia. What a gift to the countries they settle in! It just makes it harder for Russia to recover. Putin seriously underestimated the results of his actions.

Just like they did in the late 1979's, when they opened the borders to let "undesirables" out, including all those Jooooos, which they encouraged to leave. A decade later, they discovered that half the Ph.D's in the country had taken them up on their offer. You can now go through some neighborhood's in Tel Aviv where the signage is in Hebrew and Russian instead of the usual Hebrew, Arabic and English because of all the Russian Ph.D. emigres living there.

johnpcapitalist wrote: ↑Tue Mar 22, 2022 11:49 pm

MN-Skeptic wrote: ↑Tue Mar 22, 2022 10:30 pm So not only is Putin giving up all the economic gains Russia has made in the recent past, he’s also chasing away the best and brightest citizens of Russia. What a gift to the countries they settle in! It just makes it harder for Russia to recover. Putin seriously underestimated the results of his actions.

Just like they did in the late 1979's, when they opened the borders to let "undesirables" out, including all those Jooooos, which they encouraged to leave. A decade later, they discovered that half the Ph.D's in the country had taken them up on their offer. You can now go through some neighborhood's in Tel Aviv where the signage is in Hebrew and Russian instead of the usual Hebrew, Arabic and English because of all the Russian Ph.D. emigres living there.

A friend of mine, born in Lvov, was one of those ex-Soviets that left in the late 70's, and is right now, as I type this, on his way to Austria to visit his daughter. The trip has been planned for over a year to take his daughter (who, I take it, is currently hosting a family of refugees and is helping coordinating other hosts) on a visit to Italy and then Israel to visit his mother's grave. Now when he gets there he hopes to serve as a translator as needed, Italian plans may change (but he is under strict instructions from his family and friends in Oz to not go and do anything stupid - as if that is going to stop him).

We were talking the other day about when he left Lvov, the Soviet border guards took his passport and cut it up - basically said 'piss off'. He arrived in Poland as a stateless refugee, lived in refugee camps for a while before making it to Australia. Later, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, he returned to Lvov, and the Ukrainian Immigration service saw 'born in Ukraine' on his Australian passport and exclaimed "Welcome Home"!

Completely different attitude, 100% turnaround. Ukraine is NOT Russia (let alone the Soviet Union).

FYI: Suggested way of donating where it might do the most good without falling into some scammers pocket is by booking Air B&B accommodations.

keith wrote: ↑Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:13 am

FYI: Suggested way of donating where it might do the most good without falling into some scammers pocket is by booking Air B&B accommodations.

And buying digital prints from Ukrainian artists on Etsy. The money goes straight to the artist and it's immediate.

There's a problem with Airbnb.

Airbnb Cracked Down on Ukraine Listings. Some Donors Wish It Hadn’t
In an effort to limit scams, the platform has canceled bookings in the country with little or no explanation.
https://www.wired.com/story/airbnb-ukra ... donations/

By now, people have booked more than 434,000 nights in cities like Kyiv, Odessa, and Lviv to show solidarity with Ukranians. These bookings have amassed more than $15 million in aid, according to Airbnb. (The company, which normally takes about 20 percent of each booking, waived its fees in Ukraine.) But in the rush to get money to Ukrainians from abroad, some “guests” have had their bookings canceled without much explanation, leaving them confused and uneasy about using Airbnb for such contributions.

Airbnb isn't taking the money. They return it. It seems to be due to scammers who sign up for Airbnb to get the money. But some long time hosts are also being blocked from getting donations.

MN-Skeptic wrote: ↑Tue Mar 22, 2022 10:30 pm So not only is Putin giving up all the economic gains Russia has made in the recent past, he’s also chasing away the best and brightest citizens of Russia. What a gift to the countries they settle in! It just makes it harder for Russia to recover. Putin seriously underestimated the results of his actions.

This.

My daughter works with several dozen contract software engineers in Moscow, and she and her company are desperately trying to get them out of the country. She didn't give me all the details, but they have worked out some immigration issues with a few countries to let them in as employees of the company. As of yesterday they had gotten more than 6 out. I don't know how long it will be before the borders get closed to exit.

Reuters: The United States and its Western allies are assessing whether Russia should remain within the G20 following its invasion of Ukraine.

Kendra wrote: ↑Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:30 pm https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status ... 7199708160

Reuters: The United States and its Western allies are assessing whether Russia should remain within the G20 following its invasion of Ukraine.

JFC NO. Get it done, hard and swift consequences are necessary.

Kendra wrote: ↑Wed Mar 23, 2022 1:30 pm

Reuters: The United States and its Western allies are assessing whether Russia should remain within the G20 following its invasion of Ukraine.

I mean, does Russia even count as one of the world's 20 largest economies anymore, after the last few weeks?