Fogbow

tek wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 5:40 pm between Jarvanka in Miami and Jr/Botox in Jupiter, the spawn have thrown 50 million dollars into florida real estate in recent history.

I can't help but think this is going to tie back.

Actually, knowing the Trump family, they probably threw about 50 cents into the florida real estate economy. The rest is borrowed.

The Trump media era ends not with a wow but a whisper

In March, most of that attention had already faded away. His Google search interest was lower than at any point since June 2015, as was the amount of time he was seen on cable. The networks were covering him far less, down to the point reached last year when the pandemic overtook Trump in the national attention. Besides that, the average mentions of Trump in March were back to the levels seen in November 2015.

The former president still holds out hope that he will be a powerful force in American politics and culture moving forward. In one of the mostly ignored news releases that have come to replace his beloved tweets, Trump this week promised his supporters that “the best is yet to come!” We can all hope that it is, but it seems increasingly unlikely that Trump will be at the center of events should that come to pass.

Suranis wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 5:12 pm No way is he a Billionare. The way he desperately tried to hold onto that Apprentice gig showed how desperate for liquid cash he was.

The collective "we" here have talked about it, and most of us think he's underwater with debt-load. The Apprentice gig he pulled down like $150-something million in cash.

He destroyed his "brand"/biz by running for Prez, cause the "fake news" looked under the hood.

somerset wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:32 am

fierceredpanda wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 7:06 am Also check out the bronze-ish statuette behind Steven Miller's right arm.

That's right, kids. Donald Trump has a statue of himself in his office.

The guy has always been a pathological narcissist. The problem now is that, having spent four years in an office which - by its nature - would make even the most humble of persons start to get a swelled head, he no longer has access to his fix. I am expecting him to spiral pretty badly.

I see this as a feature, not a bug.

Well he should "get on with it then"

Yes, what LM K posted.

In March 2021, Google search interest in Trump was lower than at any point since June 2015, as was the amount of time he was seen on cable. America has moved on quickly.


Tried to give some Trumpers support

Deutsche Bank

I suspect I have more cash than he does. And I ain’t rich.

He's got cash. And I expect he's reasonably solvent. Sorta, kinda.

I agree with Gregg that his "book value," or net worth may be a negative number. He's done a good job of obfuscating the value of his assets, so it's hard to get a true reading on how much he owes versus how much he has. Still, it looks like overall his assets do exceed his liabilities, at least by a little bit. What drives his net worth down is what the assets are worth versus what they can be sold for.

A big chunk of his assets are tied up in partnerships with other owners that can't be easily liquidated. For him, the upside is that these assets are being managed by competent businessmen who can make them appreciate in value. And under ideal conditions these assets could be sold profitably by the OSG. But if they can't be sold at the right time, if they have to be sold "right now" or under poor conditions, they will fetch much less. I think this is the reason he didn't divest these assets when he became president. He simply couldn't, and still can't, divest these assets without incurring huge losses. His partners also smell blood and they're not going to pay him even close to what the assets might be worth under better conditions.

But what the OSG is quite good at is generating cash flow. He's a master salesman and he's remained damn good at selling whatever folks are willing to pay him for (ethical or not). His fundraising after his loss is a clear example of that. Theres enough cash to support his lifestyle, maybe service his debts, and keep a skeleton crew of political operatives funded. At least for now

Pessimist that I am, when I see people awaiting the final downfall of the DFO I can’t help but remember that to my horror and amazement he managed to get enough votes to be elected President.
Given his past record of handling litigation it will be years before any cases get to court and I’m sure he, along with his enablers, will be able to convince a large number of believers that it is just persecution by the deep state / radical lefties / corrupt DOJ etc. So, unless something happens soon that dramatically changes the current inertia in the GOP, he will remain their de facto choice for 2024.
Even were he to suddenly become a “non-player” there is the lasting damage he and his elk have done, and will continue to do, to the fabric of politics in the USA by encouraging and enabling the worst in people.
(A musing: The DFO is not some masterful genius, he is an amoral con man whose time, for many previously discussed reasons, had come. The lesson that will be learnt is that “winning” is all that matters, and this along with the frightening global power of the internet to promote any number of false realities,form a formidable weapon. It’s not just the USA that will be affected).

I forget where, but I saw something not long ago that inferred from his financials that Trump has less than a million dollars in stocks/bonds/equities that are considered truly liquid. Cash is somewhat of a mystery. As for the rest, I agree with others that he definitely has >$1B in assets, but all of them appear to be leveraged to the hilt, losing money, or both, in addition to being illiquid. Golf courses are not exactly the most active market around. Added to this, his revenue is probably taking a huge hit this year because he is no longer President, so big business and foreign governments aren't shelling out at his properties to try to buy favors anymore.

With all the debt he has coming due, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he were net in the red.

Kendra wrote: ↑Tue Apr 06, 2021 11:35 am

U.S. Office of Special Counsel: Lynne Patton, the former Trump appointee who served at HUD, has been disciplined for violating the Hatch Act.

Patton admitted to violating the Act and has agreed to accept a 48-month debarment from federal employment and pay a $1,000 civil fine.

So that means if President Biden wants to hire her, he's out of luck. But if that other dude runs and wins in 2024, she can get her old job back.

That's a hell of a punishment.

somerset wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:20 am He's got cash. And I expect he's reasonably solvent. Sorta, kinda.

I agree with Gregg that his "book value," or net worth may be a negative number. He's done a good job of obfuscating the value of his assets, so it's hard to get a true reading on how much he owes versus how much he has. Still, it looks like overall his assets do exceed his liabilities, at least by a little bit. What drives his net worth down is what the assets are worth versus what they can be sold for.

Using whose valuations? He is known for inflating the value of his properties when it suits him.

Didn't you kind of contradict yourself when you said his net worth may be a negative number, and then saying that his assets do exceed his liabilities?

It will be interesting, in the next couple of years, when those enormous loans come due. If he has to sell any properties to repay the loans, can he get as much as he owes?

He could end up being a one-man recession. There's an old joke that, if you owe the bank $10,000 and can't pay, you're in trouble. If you owe the bank $10,000,000 and can't pay, the bank is in trouble. He owes the banks hundreds of millions of dollars. I've heard that at least $800M is coming due in the next 18 months. And that's only what we've heard about.

Gregg, you're far more versed in the dismal science than I am. What would be the ripples through the overall economy, if Trump defaulted on more than a billion dollars? I suppose that the economy is strong enough to survive, but I think it would probably cause a noticeable blip.

noblepa wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 10:51 am Gregg, you're far more versed in the dismal science than I am. What would be the ripples through the overall economy, if Trump defaulted on more than a billion dollars? I suppose that the economy is strong enough to survive, but I think it would probably cause a noticeable blip.

A billion-dollar default is not really even a rounding error in the overall banking system. Typically, banks will "syndicate" loans into pieces, so that they spread the risk to multiple banks. A billion-dollar real estate deal might be syndicated to 10-12 different participating banks, so if the loan tanks, it won't put any one of these out of business. The lead bank in the syndicate gets some extra fee income for managing the syndicate.

Long ago, I knew some real estate commercial lenders in Manhattan real estate (this was before "The Apprentice"). I asked them about whether they did business with Trump. They said they would never do business with Trump because his financals were so bad. But they showed up to every pitch meeting for the sole purpose of staying on the good side of the lead banks so that they would get invited to participate in deals they actually wanted to do.

As far as I have heard, Trump's loans are held far more narrowly: Deutsche Bank is the only bank that apparently holds his debt, and they can certainly absorb a 100% writedown. There's some "bucket shop" debt fund that holds a lot of debt, but the impact on the economy is minimal if they have to write off a big loan -- it'll hurt their investors, but it won't ripple through the economy like it would if a bank were to eat a big loan.

Real estate loans are almost always backed up with tangible assets as collateral, almost by definition. If you have a $100 million loan, and the outstanding balance is $70 million, and the value of the property went from $110 million (loan plus down payment) at the time it was made six years ago, and the property value went down 35%, then the bank seizes the property, sells it at the current market of $65 million, and they're only out $5 million. So just because a "$1 billion" loan defaults doesn't mean the bank has to eat the entire $1 billion. Banks constantly monitor their portfolios in terms of actual market value to manage their risk.

The credit crisis in 2008 was driven by a unique (and really dumb) circumstance: when the value of certain types of mortgage-backed securities went down, the bank would be on the hook to repurchase them from the buyer at face value. The problem is that this would eat up their balance sheet and either prevent them from making other loans to worthwhile customers or would put them entirely out of business because they had a liability that they couldn't cover. That circumstance of a risk-free repurchase agreement will not recur. And the problem was not $1 billion in CMBS repo's coming due, but $2 trillion or $3 trillion of them all coming due at once. That's not applicable to analyzing the effects of default from a third-rate real estate hustler on the overall lending market.

johnpcapitalist wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:18 pmAs far as I have heard, Trump's loans are held far more narrowly: Deutsche Bank is the only bank that apparently holds his debt, and they can certainly absorb a 100% writedown.

Didn't Deutsche Bank recently say it was cutting ties with Trump? That might make it hard for him to refinance the loans coming due.

OTOH, DB might decide that refinancing and hoping to get the money later might be preferable to taking the loss right now. Money has a way of getting in the way of principles.

noblepa wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:28 pm

johnpcapitalist wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:18 pmAs far as I have heard, Trump's loans are held far more narrowly: Deutsche Bank is the only bank that apparently holds his debt, and they can certainly absorb a 100% writedown.

Didn't Deutsche Bank recently say it was cutting ties with Trump? That might make it hard for him to refinance the loans coming due.

OTOH, DB might decide that refinancing and hoping to get the money later might be preferable to taking the loss right now. Money has a way of getting in the way of principles.

I am working from memory here, but I think Deutsche was saying that they were cutting ties with him where possible, and they certainly weren't going to do new business with him. But I don't think they were calling existing loans. That could change if he's indicted for bank fraud, at which point they would have every right to do so, because it would suggest that their collateral is impaired.

Ya basically there was a faction in DB that wanted to hand over money to the Twice Impeached as they were so starry eyed about the guy, and a growing faction that wanted nothing to do with him. He asked for a huge loan on 2016 (to keep robbing peter to pay Paul) and it kicked off a near civil war in DB, which the "No Way" faction narrowly won, and in 2020 as the vultures started to gather the "No way" people took the reigns.

Just found out looking for links to corroborate this that The Trump Org could not make its payments Last April when His Org could not make its payments to DH last April when he was still President and raking in money hand over fist, and that apperently was the final straw.

https://mfi-miami.com/2020/04/deutsche-bank-bombshell/

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ment-delay

A more tabloidy take, https://mfi-miami.com/2020/04/deutsche-bank-bombshell/

I had forgotten about MFI Miami. They covered Ted VIsner back in the day. I think somebody from there was a member here for a while, back when Visner was more interesting (i.e. not in prison).

somerset wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 12:20 am He's got cash. And I expect he's reasonably solvent. Sorta, kinda.



A big chunk of his assets are tied up in partnerships with other owners that can't be easily liquidated. For him, the upside is that these assets are being managed by competent businessmen who can make them appreciate in value. And under ideal conditions these assets could be sold profitably by the OSG. But if they can't be sold at the right time, if they have to be sold "right now" or under poor conditions, they will fetch much less. I think this is the reason he didn't divest these assets when he became president. He simply couldn't, and still can't, divest these assets without incurring huge losses. His partners also smell blood and they're not going to pay him even close to what the assets might be worth under better conditions.

We cannot forget any potential income tax consequences of any sale. We do not know his adjusted income tax basis is for these properties. We do not know if he will negotiate any debt relief on properties that he owns outright. We do not know the balance sheet of any partnership/LLC that he owns a fractional interest in. Selling a partnership interest is a thorny tax matter beyond the scope of an internet forum, but suffice to say there can be yuge tax consequences if his capital account is in the red and/or there is a lot of debt within the partnership. And if any partnership is on the cash basis of accounting or has depreciated personal property, there are "hot assets" that are taxed immediately upon sale. There will also be "unrecaptured section 1250 depreciation" to pay taxes on for the sale of real estate improvements.

Somerset is correct in that the value of 100% of a piece of real estate does not scale linearly with a fractional interest. A 25% interest in a partnership with the only asset being $100 million in real estate will not fetch $25 million upon a sale or redemption, and in a distress sale perhaps as little as 60-70 cents on the dollar. If the partnership has $85 million in debt on this property, the selling price includes 25% of the amount of debt; it is not discounted proportionately.

It is not beyond the realm of possibility that putative sales don't wind up costing him directly. But there is everyone's silent partner with his hand out for taxes even though these transactions did not result in any $$$$ flowing into his piggy bank.

Of course, if he paid a paltry $750 in personal income taxes in 2018, he may have ginormous net operating losses or passive activity losses carrying forward that could absorb large amounts of taxable income.

humblescribe wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:49 pm Of course, if he paid a paltry $750 in personal income taxes in 2018, he may have ginormous net operating losses or passive activity losses carrying forward that could absorb large amounts of taxable income.

Aren't those the kinds of things that the New York investigators are looking at?

Even though it is a state investigation, if they uncover evidence of tax fraud on his NY returns, that would, it seems to me, be probable cause to examine his federal returns for the same year(s).

noblepa wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 2:10 pm

humblescribe wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 1:49 pm Of course, if he paid a paltry $750 in personal income taxes in 2018, he may have ginormous net operating losses or passive activity losses carrying forward that could absorb large amounts of taxable income.

Aren't those the kinds of things that the New York investigators are looking at?

Even though it is a state investigation, if they uncover evidence of tax fraud on his NY returns, that would, it seems to me, be probable cause to examine his federal returns for the same year(s).

It is not clear to me just what the NYS investigators are pursuing with his tax returns. They have not made public their inquiries. That said, it is customary for taxing agencies to share the results of audits or investigations that result in additional tax collected with other agencies.

At this point, I would not use the term tax fraud. There could be differences in opinion in income tax treatment of many of his ventures and how they affect his returns. Taxpayers are aggressive in how they interpret the laws and regulations while the examiners take a contrary position. It is the underlying facts and circumstances that will ultimately determine whether TFG and his advisors committed criminal fraud, civil fraud, or simple negligence if additional tax is owed.

Pfft,

What collateral?

Gregg wrote: ↑Thu Apr 08, 2021 10:04 pm

johnpcapitalist wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 4:08 pm

noblepa wrote: ↑Wed Apr 07, 2021 2:28 pm

Didn't Deutsche Bank recently say it was cutting ties with Trump? That might make it hard for him to refinance the loans coming due.

OTOH, DB might decide that refinancing and hoping to get the money later might be preferable to taking the loss right now. Money has a way of getting in the way of principles.

I am working from memory here, but I think Deutsche was saying that they were cutting ties with him where possible, and they certainly weren't going to do new business with him. But I don't think they were calling existing loans. That could change if he's indicted for bank fraud, at which point they would have every right to do so, because it would suggest that their collateral is impaired.

I've been convinced from the get go that the actual lender on those DB loans were Russia, and not just Russian Oligarchs but possibly behind a lot of fronts the actual KGB (whatever its called now)

There isn't anyone who is gonna lend Trump money now, he's going to spend the rest of his life in court defending his criminal and civil cases and on any given day a jury somewhere might drop a judgement against him for a few billion dollars.

What collateral?

The other major lender is Ladder Capital. Not sure how accurate this data is, but it looks like someone has been doing a bit of digging

Forbes recently reported on Trump's decrease in wealth - Donald Trump Tumbles Nearly 300 Spots In Billionaire Ranks.

TheGatewayPundit had an interesting spin on his reduced wealth - President Trump Sets Record for Giving Up the Most Net Worth While Selflessly Serving His Country.

And, of course, they reported that Franklin Graham was also spinning that story - Franklin Graham: President Trump’s Wealth Shrank When He Was In Office Because He Put America First.

It's just so stupid. Of course, almost all of the comments are singing Trump's selflessness and love of country.

Good grief.