Fogbow

Gassed-up today @ $4.19.9 today. (love how they price that .9 cents on it)... Don't care.

Why do people think gas prices must remain static when everything else is affected by inflation year-over-year?

I told someone that the president has nothing to do with gas prices and he countered with this. Is he right?

Joe Biden pandered to the same crowd Liz Warren was trying to impress. He promised “no new fracking”.
Biden has issued a pair of executive orders that are viewed as hostile toward the oil and gas industry:
On his second day in office, President Biden signed Executive Order on Protecting Public Health and the Environment and Restoring Science to Tackle the Climate Crisis. The biggest takeaway from the Executive Order was the cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline permit.
Then the administration issued Secretarial Order No. 3395, which implemented a 60-day suspension of new oil and gas leasing and drilling permits for federal land and water.
President Biden followed that action up with Executive Order on Tackling the Climate Crisis at Home and Abroad. The biggest takeaway from this order was an indefinite “pause on new oil and natural gas leases on public lands” until a comprehensive review on the climate change impacts can be completed.
These policies affect speculation, thus exacerbate oil price rises that we all have been seeing for 6 months now. I can’t make you understand it any better or make you see something that you refuse to see. Gas prices are ridiculously high under Biden, and they weren’t under Trump. Spin it any way you like, at some point, even the leftist lefties of the most leftist camp will grow weary of heating oil and gas prices crushing them, along with the rise in costs for everything else that depends on fuel.“

there are 9k oil leases on public lands that aren't being used. Keystone would have been 2023-2024 at best, and it's impact would have been minimal. The highest estimate I've seen is $0.05/gallon, and I believe that to be rather generous. U.S. oil production remains at record high levels: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... RFPUS2&f=M
U.S. oil company profits have hit record highs:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/01/busi ... -2021.html
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chevron-ra ... 1643370301
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-02-03/
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-02-08/
Here's a nice explainer article from yesterday: Some truths about gas prices that Biden critics would rather you not consider

Yes and no.

Biden did sign those executive orders. And they fairly can be described as hostile to oil-and-gas industry.

And?

Keystone XL, for example, was a proposed pipeline. Even under the best-case scenario, it would not have been operational for years. So canceling its permit did nothing to the present day-to-day prices of refined gas.

And I'll defer to experts here, but its primary intended use was for petroleum products not used in cars driven in the United States. So how the supply of gasoline-adjacent products would have affected the price of actual gas is basically speculative.

bob wrote: ↑Tue Mar 08, 2022 2:26 pm Yes and no.

Biden did sign those executive orders. And they fairly can be described as hostile to oil-and-gas industry.

And?

Keystone XL, for example, was a proposed pipeline. Even under the best-case scenario, it would not have been operational for years. So canceling its permit did nothing to the present day-to-day prices of refined gas.

And I'll defer to experts here, but its primary intended use was for petroleum products not used in cars driven in the United States. So how the supply of gasoline-adjacent products would have affected the price of actual gas is basically speculative.

The guy claims that speculation has a lot to do with oil prices and policy has an effect on that.

Sounds like nonsense to me.

DrIrvingFinegarten wrote: ↑Tue Mar 08, 2022 2:38 pmThe guy claims that speculation has a lot to do with oil prices and policy has an effect on that.

That has a degree of truth as well. Commodities and futures trading are essentially predictions that do affect prices by gauging future supply and demand.

But the longer the time horizon, the more speculative it becomes. And there's less certainty about causation.

At that point, it is more about people's feelings about gas than the actual gas.

If, for example, Biden suddenly fast-tracked Keystone XL, the commodities and futures market might react. Or might not. And that might immediately and slightly affect the price at the pump. Or it might not. And the next day may bring new information, like a large military conflict that threatens the reliability of petroleum transactions on a global scale.

bob wrote: ↑Tue Mar 08, 2022 2:45 pm

DrIrvingFinegarten wrote: ↑Tue Mar 08, 2022 2:38 pmThe guy claims that speculation has a lot to do with oil prices and policy has an effect on that.

That has a degree of truth as well. Commodities and futures trading are essentially predictions that do affect prices by gauging future supply and demand.

But the longer the time horizon, the more speculative it becomes. And there's less certainty about causation.

At that point, it is more about people's feelings about gas than the actual gas.

If, for example, Biden suddenly fast-tracked Keystone XL, the commodities and futures market might react. Or might not. And that might immediately and slightly affect the price at the pump. Or it might not. And the next day may bring new information, like a large military conflict that threatens the reliability of petroleum transactions on a global scale.

So when I tell him it’s supply and demand and that demand has increased in the past 1 1/2 years and supply hasn’t kept pace, and Biden has nothing to do with that, am I oversimplifying? Am I just willfully ignorant of Biden’s shortcomings?

About the only tool Biden has to increase the immediate supply is to tap the strategic reserves. Which really is just a drop and more of a PR move.

The rest is reading tea leaves about the administration's relationship to oil and gas. Backing the pipeline suggests a continued reliance on oil, which suggests a greater supply, which suggests a lower price. So beliefs about the long-term future supply may (or not) be reflected in today' pump prices.


And, again, most people who like to bicker on the internet aren't there for rational arguments. Nor will they concede they were ever wrong.

They also like to make unsubstantiated claims (and sometimes claims that cannot be substantiated) and then tell you to do your research and prove them wrong.

Which not only burden shifts, but also makes them the adjudicator of their claim.

So, Irv, if Biden’s alleged hostility to the petroleum industry is causing inflated prices, is he also hostile to every other business in America, thus explaining the general price inflation everywhere?

Gee, his hostility must have a wide reach, considering inflated prices now are world-wide! Amazing, that.

I mean, it couldn’t be because commerce died off during the pandemic even though many products and services were still well-supplied, but then the economy came roaring back while supply became scarce due to production cutbacks during the pandemic, could it?

Supply and demand, Irv. That’d be my retort. Gas was cheap when people weren’t driving. Astonishing. And now that sector has suffered a double whammy because of demand-based inflation and Russia.

Did you see the post above from a member with an electric car and solar panels? That’s where we’ve been trying to go, Irv. Those folks aren’t bitching about gas prices now, eh? That may be worth mentioning to anyone making such arguments.

Kauai gasoline prices today -

Lowest - $4.75
Highest - $5.05

For the first time, Costco is no longer the lowest price.

Last week I was running low on gas and decided to fill up before everyone panicked. I was too late. I headed to Costco, which was swamped. Had to wait to drive in and eventually gave up. The 2 streets to Costco were jammed, one was impassible. I guess everyone suddenly decided to load their tanks b/c Ukraine. We usually only see lines like this if a hurricane is coming.

Doing the math, I realized that it would take 45 minutes for me to reach a gas pump. So I left. Fortunately, on the way home I saw a gas station without a line. Yeah, the price was higher, but I was in & out in minutes.

Fortunately, i don't drive as much as I used to.

Christopher Knittel
@KnittelMIT
·
Mar 7
Replying to
@KnittelMIT
1. The first thing to know about oil is that it is set on a GLOBAL market. What does that mean? That means there is, effectively, one price. So, any supply disruption, anywhere, affects that price and therefore prices in the US.
Christopher Knittel
@KnittelMIT
·
Mar 7
Even if we produced 2x what we consumed, if there is a war that raises oil prices in EU, the price in the US will rise. So, if someone claims that increasing our production will insulate us from oil P shocks like we are seeing now, they don't know what they are talking abt. Sorry
Christopher Knittel
@KnittelMIT
·
Mar 7
2. That's not to say increasing domestic production cannot lower prices. It can, point 1 just means that we will never be "oil independent" because when the price of oil increases somewhere in the world, it will increase here. Oil independence is selling a bridge in the desert.
Christopher Knittel
@KnittelMIT
·
Mar 7
Increasing domestic production can lower the GLOBAL price, but that increase gets spread over the globe and doesn't have as big of an effect on prices as typically thought because it must be measured again GLOBAL supplies.

Christopher Knittel
@KnittelMIT
·
Mar 7
3. US oil prod is NOT down over the past year!!! Oil production tanked at the beginning of 2020 and has been slowly recovering. Remember the NEGATIVE oil prices in 4/20? This is not about Keystone XL. Not about the #BidenAdministration or any federal policy.

In addition to the prices you pay at the pump, transportation companies also feel the increase. Costs to ship products via rail, truck, or plane will increase with the increase in fuel price. They will pass those increases along to their customers, and those increases will ultimately be paid by us consumers.

I recall back in '08 when many companies added a "fuel surcharge" onto their invoices, usually an additional 5-8%. I think we can expect more of the same in a couple of months if oil prices do not drop back to 2021 levels or so.

IIRC, the Keystone oil was being processed in Texas because it was at the Gulf Coast so that it would be easy to ship overseas. I thought it was never meant to be used in this country. Oil companies got the benefits, people around the refineries got the bad side effects, and the rest of the world got the refined oil.

This is one of those problems that wouldn't be too hard to solve but it's way more profitable not to solve it.

Part of a long list: heathcare, education, homlessness....

Helping out.

I received a text earlier this morning from my youngest daughter stating that the company she works for is adding $25 weekly to their paychecks to help with the higher gas prices.

I just paid $5.399/gal at the cheap station. It's 50 cents higher at my usual Chevron.

Cortez Masto: Can you explain at a time like this why your company would be prioritizing payouts to shareholders rather than working to increase our oil supply?
Shell Vp: …

King: Why has the price of gasoline gone up? Was it because of the cancellation Keystone pipeline? Most of the oil going through the Keystone pipeline was scheduled to be exported. Was it a pause in leases that wouldn’t have produced oil in 3-4 years? No

King: Let’s talk about oil in the United States. In 2021, half of the oil produced in the United States was exported. Did that do anything for our consumers?

Once more for the folks in the back: RECORD OIL COMPANY PROFITS! THAT'S WHAT YOU ARE PAYING!

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez @AOC wrote: Profiteering. And there should be consequences for it.

Stephanie Ruhle @SRuhle wrote: OIL IS NOW LESS THAN $100 A BARREL.
What’s going on at the pump?

I think it is time to resurrect the Windfall Profits Tax on the oil companies that was created in the '70s when the retail price of gasoline (horrors!) skyrocketed from 35 cents per gallon to around 70 cents.

Although, I have heard without doing any research, that the Democrats have or will be introducing legislation in this session to address just that.

Of course, with Manchin this is dead in the water in the Senate.

I'm seeing a lot of blowback from people wanting to suspend various gas taxes to ease the price at the pump. Bah, folly! Then again, lowering the taxes used to maintain roads in order to support record oil company profits? Sounds about American.

That $96 price is for WTI Crude for delivery in April ′22.

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@CL.1

Volkonski wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 10:49 pm That $96 price is for WTI Crude for delivery in April ′22.

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@CL.1

If we're going to play that game, then the gas prices should have a time lag. But they didn't on the way up.

Ten days before important public holidays is when they jack up the prices before the travel wave starts. Easter is just around the corner...

tek wrote: ↑Thu Mar 17, 2022 5:59 am

Volkonski wrote: ↑Wed Mar 16, 2022 10:49 pm That $96 price is for WTI Crude for delivery in April ′22.

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@CL.1

If we're going to play that game, then the gas prices should have a time lag. But they didn't on the way up.

It’s odd how when oil prices go up, it takes about six minutes for that to show up at the pump. But when oil prices go down, it takes about six months for that to trickle down to the pump. Wonder what that means?