Fogbow

As a symbolic gesture, this is big.

Russia announced Wednesday that it was withdrawing forces from Kherson, a key city in southern Ukraine, in what could turn out to be the most humiliating setback in President Vladimir Putin’s war.

Ukrainian officials remained cautious about the Russian forces’ intentions with some suggesting on social media that it was a trick but in televised comments, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said he was ordering the withdrawal of troops across the Dnieper River.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna56362

The Russian-installed deputy governor of Kherson, Kirill Stremousov, has been killed in a car crash, local officials and media say.
Mr Stremousov, 45, was appointed to his job two months after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Hours after the reports of Mr Stremousov's death, Russian Defence Ministry Sergey Shoygu ordered the withdrawal of Russian troops from the western bank of the Dnipro river.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63572668

IMHO hunkering down for the winter as they do not have any supply lines to sustain forward forces, likely not even supplies per se.

Last time they blew some bridges, Ukraine army had pontoon bridges in place within a few days.

Contested river crossings are never fun..

Dave from down under wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 5:49 pm Contested river crossings are never fun..

Blowing up bridges behind you is about keeping the guys chasing you from catching up.

Gregg wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 6:02 pm

Dave from down under wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2022 5:49 pm Contested river crossings are never fun..

Blowing up bridges behind you is about keeping the guys chasing you from catching up.

Very true, it also slows up their logistics, even if the front line units can leap across the obstacle (air, amphib,temp bridging), having a barrier like a river is useful as the basis of a defensive line, if the intent isn't to keep retreating.

The Ukrainians suspect a trap.

I hope that it is a rout.

They're running. It's what in our Civil War was known as "a skedaddle"

Dusty in here.

'Putin's Brain' Turns On Russian Leader With 'King of the Rains' Warning

https://www.newsweek.com/putins-brain-t ... ng-1759139

Posting on Telegram, Ultranationalist Alexander Dugin, known as "Putin's Brain," called the Russian president an autocrat with ultimate power over the war as he accused him of "surrendering" the city on November 12.

He said that the retreat undermines Russian ideology by failing to defend "Russian cities."

On 30 September President Putin formally annexed four Ukrainian provinces, including the southern Kherson region, into Russia.

Pro-war Dugin, whose daughter was killed in a Moscow car explosion earlier this year, said an autocrat has a responsibility to save his nation all by himself or face the fate of the "king of the rains," according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

The U.S. think tank said the quote was a reference to Sir James Frazer's 'The Golden Bough', where a king was killed because he was unable to deliver rain amidst a drought.

Is there a chance Putin is planning to nuke Kherson and that’s why they’re blowing up bridges behind them?

I have an ambivalent feeling about the Kherson situation.

Blowing up bridges will stop the Ukrainian from interfering with a retreat and give the Russian army time to reconfigure. Though I have no idea how they would want to make a fresh offensive, say next spring.

On the other hand I still have in mind that the Russians warned all residents to evacuate the Kherson area. I have no idea if they had intended to use the city as battle ground. My fear is that they are trying to lure as many Ukranian forces as possible into the Kherson area and carpet bomb them with cruise missiles and airforce strikes, all conventional. The Russians themselves are far to near to be exposed to any nuclear stuff.

RTH10260 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 13, 2022 1:25 pm
On the other hand I still have in mind that the Russians warned all residents to evacuate the Kherson area. I have no idea if they had intended to use the city as battle ground. My fear is that they are trying to lure as many Ukranian forces as possible into the Kherson area and carpet bomb them with cruise missiles and airforce strikes, all conventional. The Russians themselves are far to near to be exposed to any nuclear stuff.

I've been thinking along those lines too. But I don't think the carpet bombing is a goer. The Ruski's have been too afraid to use the airforce since the Kyiv airport disaster, why should they start now?

On the other hand, it might also be that the Ukraine has something planned for when the ground freezes and the Russian untrained recruits (that were garrisoning Kherson at the end) are freezing their asses off on the other side of the river.

Having made crossing the Dnipro virtually impossible, the Russians left the left bank relatively lightly guarded in Kherson Oblast and appear to have moved a sizeable portion of the troops who were formerly in Kherson to Zaporizhia Oblast. I think the brunt of the fighting will move to the Vulhedar area. My guess is that the Russians will try to advance with force of numbers (using newly mobilized troops as cannon fodder). The Ukrainians will likely patiently work (with HIMARS) at dismantling the Russian logistics support network for a couple of months before making an advance in the Melitopol direction.

To what extent is this war being fought in the spheres of world politics and economics, rather than on the physical battlefield itself? To what extent is this war focused on geo-political manipulation, rather than territory won or lost?

Six years prior, Russia invaded Facebook and won it without a fight. How will the timeline of this disruption play out? These are the questions I ask myself.

When I was a kid I read enough Deleuze and Guattari to put me on an FBI watch list. And some other dudes that made no sense until I got into the music business. This reminds me of the "total war" they were talking about. A short excerpt:

keith wrote: ↑Sun Nov 13, 2022 9:55 pm

RTH10260 wrote: ↑Sun Nov 13, 2022 1:25 pm
On the other hand I still have in mind that the Russians warned all residents to evacuate the Kherson area. I have no idea if they had intended to use the city as battle ground. My fear is that they are trying to lure as many Ukranian forces as possible into the Kherson area and carpet bomb them with cruise missiles and airforce strikes, all conventional. The Russians themselves are far to near to be exposed to any nuclear stuff.

I've been thinking along those lines too. But I don't think the carpet bombing is a goer. The Ruski's have been too afraid to use the airforce since the Kyiv airport disaster, why should they start now?

I don't think the Russians have many cruise missiles left. I read something in the last day or two that they have only made a handful of Kalibr cruise missile strikes in the last couple of weeks, indicating that they're low on inventory of an important missile. While it could be argued that they're saving these for "something big," my guess is that they're saving the good stuff for defending Crimea. Crimea, particularly the naval base at Sevastopol, is a much more important strategic resource for Russia than a particular city that they've held for only 9 months.

If Russia loses Sevastopol, they lose the home port of the Black Sea fleet, the only port that doesn't ice up in winter, and they're done as a global naval power in that case (that's already de facto true, but it will make it completely obvious). Russia has a lot more $$ and prestige invested in Crimea, which they seized 8 years ago. The Kerch bridge is especially symbolic. So if they lose Crimea, and they get to watch Zelinsky press the button that triggers the detonation that sends the Kerch Bridge to the bottom of the straits, it'll be especially humiliating for Putin.

Eventually, they'll concentrate their resources on trying to keep Crimea, because they're essentially now going to lose all the rest of southern Ukraine. The only possible defensible area left is Crimea; everything else is open plains that they'll have to refresh logistically by truck as Ukraine can now target the rail lines Russia needs for resupply. I think they'll have a tough time keeping Crimea, especially if they get longer-range ATACMS from the US to take out the Kerch bridge more permanently or if the fire damage from the prior truck bomb attack causes the rail portion of the bridge to collapse. You can bet they did a crappy job on the rail repairs in their Potemkin style effort to show that the attack was no big deal.

There is supposedly a lot of mining and booby trapping of civilian areas of Kherson, so that could be a problem. And telling civilians to evacuate is just another terror weapon, even if mining is not so severe. Anything to keep people from going back home and resuming a normal life benefits Putin.

re Crimea: I just did see a snippet in a Youtube video that the Russians are active in building up defensive positions on the island (based on interpretation of satellite images).


PS. they were these days transporting new bridge segments to repair the damaged sections.

RTH10260 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 12:25 pm re Crimea: I just did see a snippet in a Youtube video that the Russians are active in building up defensive positions on the island (based on interpretation of satellite images).

While the Russians may be building up their defenses, the issue they face is keeping those defenders supplied with food, ammunition and fuel. The last is extremely vulnerable because substantially all of it is shipped in on trains via the Kerch bridge. Fuel barges into Sevastopol are risky because they're now in Ukrainian range, and a direct hit on a large fuel barge could put the entire naval base at Sebastopol out of commission as well as damaging many ships.

Take the Kerch bridge out again, especially if you hit it in the same spot that was already damaged (possible with ATACMS or HIMARS when Ukraine gets in range of those systems), and there's no fuel either for the 2.4 million civilians living there or for the military. Hit their logistics (a major Russian weak point in any case, even worse given the few ways to move material into Crimea) and they'll collapse quickly even if the defensive capabilities they're building now are world class. And it's pretty hard to imagine that they can suddenly transform from an utterly inept bunch of clowns into a world-class fighting force.

re the inept clown.

While the number of conscripts is small compared to the whole population, they will be missing not only workers but also consumers. Among the workers that fled from the conscription i guess rhey may have been largely among the better trained, eg there is a brain drain happening.

I wonder how in the coming months the Russian public will react when more and more body bags (or only dog tags) return home.

RTH10260 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 1:11 pm I wonder how in the coming months the Russian public will react when more and more body bags (or only dog tags) return home.

I saw one tweet where a Russian soldier was saying that they were leaving dead soldiers behind. That way they didn't have to reveal to Russia how many soldiers were being killed. They'd just be listed as missing.

MN-Skeptic wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 1:29 pm

RTH10260 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 14, 2022 1:11 pm I wonder how in the coming months the Russian public will react when more and more body bags (or only dog tags) return home.

I saw one tweet where a Russian soldier was saying that they were leaving dead soldiers behind. That way they didn't have to reveal to Russia how many soldiers were being killed. They'd just be listed as missing.

It'll be like Schwarzenegger's "The Running Man", where they all were reported to retire to some island.