POLL: Who WILL Kamala Harris Choose as Her VP? Tim Walz!

[June bug]

I understand that Labor has a problem with Kelly. Hope it doesn't knock him out of contention, as he is my pick as well.

I do not want him-simply because he is a senator from Arizona. We need to keep all the votes in the Senate we can.

In the event of a Senate vacancy, Arizona law requires the governor to appoint a someone of the same party as the departing Senator. That person will serve till the regular election for the seat, which won’t be till 2026. Obviously no guarantees, but it gives whoever’s appointed 2 years and the incumbency.

[Foggy]

Here's an idea Roy Cooper came up with, when he was Attorney General. He said take those little stop signs that swing out from the side of the school bus and put cameras on them, then you can really crack down on the violators, and you can use the fines to pay for the cameras.

[Luke]

My working political friends in DC, whom I trust, say insider betting is currently on Cooper or Shapiro. Cooper has many strengths, not the least of which is NC now has 16 EVs (hadn't realized it surpassed Michigan). Looked and found this --

Harris' profile — spiritually, if not technically, a GenXer; a product of Sun Belt politics; a woman of color with experience running and winning among Latino voters; a leading party voice on abortion rights — suddenly appears to reopen the map, offering two distinct paths to victory.

It begins somewhat implausibly in rapidly growing North Carolina, a state that has voted almost exclusively Republican in presidential races over the past half-century. It’s a daunting record of GOP success, but it’s leavened by the fact that former President Donald Trump carried the state by just 75,000 votes out of more than 5.5 million cast in 2020, a considerably smaller winning margin than in 2016.

The historic nature of Harris’ candidacy is likely to resonate louder in North Carolina than most other places, given that over 20 percent of the population is Black. In 2008, the similarly groundbreaking candidacy of Barack Obama helped him narrowly win there, powered by a record turnout of Black voters. Here’s an idea of Obama’s catalytic effect on the electorate: In 2004, only 59 percent of registered Black voters turned out, compared with 66 percent of registered white voters. Four years later, a record 72 percent of registered Black people voted, outpacing the rate of white people in the state for the first time. Black turnout hasn’t hit that turnout level since.

Given Trump’s current advantage in North Carolina polls, it’s still a risky play. But the prospect of an electorate reshaped by new residents and a possible surge of Black voters will be enticing. The return on investment would be considerable, since a loss in the state would blow a hole in Trump’s coalition. Due to its population gains, North Carolina now offers more Electoral College votes (16) than Wisconsin (10) and even more than traditional giant Michigan (15).

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... s-00171278


Foggy, do you think Democrats can claw back NC? Is he interesting to listen to? (Haven't had a moment to listen to him speak, any suggestions of what to check out? I'm embarrassed I had to think for a second to remember Tim Kaine.) Do Georgians know about Cooper? NC & GA back on the map would be huge.

[bob]

North Carolina presidential voting:

2020: Rep. 49.9%; Dem. 48.6% (R 1.3%);
2016: Rep. 49.8%; Dem. 46.2% (R 2.6%);
2012: Rep. 50.4%; Dem 48.4% (R 2.0%);
2008: Dem 49.7%; Rep. 49.4% (D 0.3%).

So close, and not impossible.

[Luke]

Foggy, is Wifehorn managing a Dunkin Donuts these days?





This is SO SAD.

Attendees at former President Donald Trump’s rally in Charlotte, North Carolina on Wednesday were left stranded and confused after their cars were towed from a Dunkin’ Donuts parking lot. According to a local WBTV report, dozens of attendees left the rally only to find that their cars had been towed, despite claiming that the manager of the Dunkin’ had given them permission to park there. “I talked to dozens of people who were stranded here. They told me basically the same thing,” reported WBTV’s Ron Lee. “They parked here in this parking lot, went to the rally, enjoyed themselves, came back, and the cars were simply gone. A lot of these people came from hours away and now they’ve got no way to get home.”

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/trump ... rking-lot/

While the drivers were inside the rally, tow trucks showed up and began hooking up vehicles. “The managers inside promised that they could park here,” Zander DeSoto said. “Some of the people here even gave money to the people inside.” To get their cars back, people who parked at Dunkin’ have to pay hundreds of dollars to the towing company. Gotcha Towing, the group responsible for pulling the cars out of the lot, said there was a sign warning that illegally parked cars would be removed. The company added that the manager of the store contacted them, asking them to pull the vehicles off its property, and that the only way people could get their cars was to pay the $380 towing fee.

The Crump family drove more than two hours for Wednesday’s rally, and parked at the donut shop just a couple blocks from Bojangles Coliseum. When they walked back to where they thought their car was after the rally, it was gone.

https://www.wbtv.com/2024/07/25/very-fi ... charlotte/

Dozens of people who attended Wednesday’s Trump rally in Charlotte were stranded after their vehicles were towed from a nearby Dunkin’ Donuts.
The drivers said the store manager gave them permission to park there, but now they are having to pay hundreds to get their cars back.… pic.twitter.com/LEbPzif4SE
— WBTV News (@WBTV_News) July 25, 2024

Point to Roy Cooper.

[johnpcapitalist]

Par for the course:

Trump rally organizer begs MAGA supporters to turn signs right-side up

Waiting for former president Donald Trump to take the stage Wednesday at Bojangles Coliseum in Charlotte, one desperate event organizer was seen instructing attendees on how to turn their signs right-side up.

In the prelude to the former president’s first big public event outside the Republican National Convention since the assassination attempt in Pennsylvania, Trump’s MAGA supporters could be seen on livestream holding up “Trump-Vance” signs and dancing gleefully to 1980s power ballad “Gloria” by Laura Branigan.

The organizer stood in front of the podium and demonstrated how they should be holding the signs by flipping a sign several times in front of the crowd, who seemed to take notice looking down at their own signs before turning them in the correct direction.

Reminiscent of this classic:

morans.jpg (39.09 KiB) Viewed 974 times

[pipistrelle]

went to the rally, enjoyed themselves

People enjoy listening to that raspy voice attached to accordion hands whine incoherently for hours. Huh.

[Slim Cognito]

trumper pulling up to a Dunkin' Donuts parking lot, asking another guy in a red cap, "is it OK if I park here?" Guy in red cap says, "Sure! we're all parking here. This is trump country!"


Hours later, "but we were told it was OK!"

[neonzx]

Foggy, is Wifehorn managing a Dunkin Donuts these days?





This is SO SAD.
...

Huh? What does this have to do with the future Dem VP pick? You posting in wrong thread

[Frater I*I]

trumper pulling up to a Dunkin' Donuts parking lot, asking another guy in a red cap, "is it OK if I park here?" Guy in red cap says, "Sure! we're all parking here. This is trump country!"


Hours later, "but we were told it was OK!"

A single tear runs down y face for their plight....

okay, that was a lie..

It was several tears, caused by laughter...

[Foggy]

Yeah, when a gigantic post is totally off topic and starts a threadjack, the solution is to quote the whole gigantic off-topic post and then ask, "Isn't this off-topic?"

Because we all needed to see the whole thing again.

[neonzx]

trumper pulling up to a Dunkin' Donuts parking lot, asking another guy in a red cap, "is it OK if I park here?" Guy in red cap says, "Sure! we're all parking here. This is trump country!"


Hours later, "but we were told it was OK!"

A single tear runs down y face for their plight....

okay, that was a lie..

It was several tears, caused by laughter...

It seems like only one car got permission. Then it became a free for all of lemmings without permission. $380

[keith]

I understand that Labor has a problem with Kelly. Hope it doesn't knock him out of contention, as he is my pick as well.

I do not want him-simply because he is a senator from Arizona. We need to keep all the votes in the Senate we can.

Agreed, but if Kelly wins VP the Arizona Governor replaces him with another Democrat (by law it must be a Democrat) to fill the seat temporarily, then there would be a special election in 2026. If he loses, he remains a Senator and his next election is 2028.

So in any case, we keep the vote until 2026 at least.

[Tiredretiredlawyer]

I’ma thinking about it - just like Kamala.

[sad-cafe]

I like Tim Waltz

and Josh Shapiro

[Foggy]

Apparently some internal revolt against Shapiro in the Pennsylvania Democratic Party.

Treasurer nominee Erin McClelland appeared to accuse Shapiro of sexism and covering up sexual harassment and imply he wouldn’t be satisfied playing second fiddle in a Tuesday night tweet.

“I want a VP pick that’s secure enough to be second under a woman, is content to be VP & won’t undermine the President to maneuver his own election & doesn’t sweep sexual harassment under the rug,” wrote McClelland, who is running against GOP incumbent Treasurer Stacy Garrity.

Unfortunately, the source is the New York Post, but it seems to be getting traction elsewhere.

[Slim Cognito]

The media is going to jump on that like flies on Pence because they need to counteract the sexist bullshit of Vance.

[bob]

So the electoral map suggests that presently there are only five swing states this election (Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin).

And that Harris must win Pennsylvania. And at least two more, with one of those being either Wisconsin or Michigan.

The CW wisdom is that Shapiro would be the finalist most likely to help win in those states. But the CW could be wrong.

The alternative strategy, which seems more risky, is to select someone who would help flip, say, Georgia or North Carolina, but also help secure states like Nevada and Arizona. I'm not sure who the leading candidate would be for this route.

[New Turtle]

Yes, winning MI, PA, WI would get Harris to 270, otherwise she needs some from the Lean R column.

Current Cook ratings:

--LEAN D--
Minnesota-10
Nebraska(02)-1
New Hampshire-4


--TOSS UP--
Michigan-15
Pennsylvania-19
Wisconsin-10


--LEAN R--
Arizona-11
Georgia-16
Nevada-6
North Carolina-16

Without the tossups, it's Harris 226 Trump 268.

[bob]

Yes, winning MI, PA, WI would get Harris to 270, otherwise she needs some from the Lean R column.

Notwithstanding Cook, I have Arizona and Nevada in the toss-up category.

As such, Pennsylvania AND either
* Michigan plus either Wisconsin or Arizona; or
* Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada

... also are winners.

Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin seems the most plausible. (Weak point: Biden in 2020 won Wisconsin by 20,000 votes.)
Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Arizona is ... plausible. (Weak point: Biden in 2020 won Arizona by 10,000 votes.)
Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Nevada (but not Michigan) seems implausible.

Conversely, if you believe Harris should focus on Pennsylvania and Michigan, then she needs only to pick up either Wisconsin or Arizona to win. (Sorry, Nevada.)

[p0rtia]

Changing my vote from Pete to Shapiro. I'm convinced. PA is the top priority, and Josh is a hell of an advocate.

[SuzieC]

I just don't believe that PA is a toss-up state. It has been reliably D. I feel that we should go for stretch state. AZ/Kelly or NC/Cooper.

[bob]

I just don't believe that PA is a toss-up state. It has been reliably D.

In 2016, Clinton lost Pennsylvania by 44,000 votes. In 2020, Biden won Pennsylvania by 80,000 votes.

Before Biden dropped out, Pennsylvania was polling within the margin of error.

[bob]

[New Turtle]

I always felt good about PA with Biden on the ticket. I remember the 2012 election, they were rushing Mitt Romney out there the weekend prior to the election because he thought he was gonna win there and he ended up losing by 300,000 votes.