Fogbow

bob wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 5:19 pm

SuzieC wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 5:16 pm We still don't know the final D/R split of the House, do we?

No: Democrats are projected to win 206 (or 207, depending on who you ask), and Republicans are projected to win 217 (or 216). The remaining are too close to call. The majority of uncalled races are in California.

Realistically, the Republicans are going to have a majority; the issue is the size. It'll be small; my guess is they will have no more than 222 seats.

222 = Gaetz/mtg/Boebert/Gosar/Biggs or any other wingnut coalition can block whatever they feel like. Civil war.

12 uncalled seats, mostly in California. Seems to me that the Rs speakership election shenanigans are premature. Am I missing something?

SuzieC wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 5:29 pm 12 uncalled seats, mostly in California. Seems to me that the Rs speakership election shenanigans are premature. Am I missing something?

Nope. I'm finding this Fait accomplis speaker talk to be premature at best.

SuzieC wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 5:29 pm 12 uncalled seats, mostly in California. Seems to me that the Rs speakership election shenanigans are premature. Am I missing something?

Republicans are leading in five of the 12 uncalled races. Because the Democrats are presently projected with fewer seats, they'll need to do better than winning seven of 12.

OK, fair enough. But how close will Dems get with 7 of 12 uncalled seats? Sorry to put you on the spot Bob but you seem to have all the answers.

SuzieC wrote: ↑Tue Nov 15, 2022 7:44 pm But how close will Dems get with 7 of 12 uncalled seats?

Various organizations have called 217 Republican House victories. Meaning, to them, the Democrats will need every uncalled race.

Including CA-27 (Eastern Los Angeles County), in which the "incumbent"* Republican is leading 54%-46%.


* Was the incumbent in the old CA-25 (Katie Hill's seat, before she resigned).

Various usual callers are saying the Republicans now have 218 seats. Democrats have 210 (say some).

The remaining seven, by current leader:

Democrats: AK, CA-13, CA-47, CA-49.

Republicans: CA-3, CA-22, CO-3.

If they all hold, it will be 221-214. Which is very close (but reversed) to where Congress started in 2021.

I think McCarthy is going to have the two most miserable years of his life. Be careful what you wish for, Kevin.

AndyinPA wrote: ↑Wed Nov 16, 2022 7:30 pm I think McCarthy is going to have the two most miserable years of his life. Be careful what you wish for, Kevin.

That's pretty much what all the reporting on MSM has been. Commenters having a hard time keeping a grin off their faces

The democrats would probably still have a good majority if it weren't for redistricting in NY, FL and CA. The NY races were brutal. Some of the CA districts like Katie Porter's were redrawn and she still is likely gonna win.

A point to remember: CA’s redestricting is done by a citizen commission now, no longer by the legislature. Redistricting isn’t likely to be brutal here.

Phoenix520 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 3:50 am A point to remember: CA’s redestricting is done by a citizen commission now, no longer by the legislature. Redistricting isn’t likely to be brutal here.

Ohio's redistricting plan was declared unconstitutional by the Ohio Supreme Court well before the election. But the R's, who controlled the committee just kept resubmitting the old plan, with, literally NO changes. I think that they made some trivial changes on the first resubmission, but then submitted that plan, I think, three times. Finally, the OSC gave up and said that we'll have to use their plan because there is no time to make a new one and print all the ballots, etc.

The idea is that they will now take on the task of coming up with a legal plan. But there is no sense of urgency, since it won't affect any elections until 2024.

This court will do nothing. They have twice declared Ohio's funding of schools through local property taxes to be unconstitutional. No one listened and we continue to pay for our schools with property taxes. The OSC has said that they will not accept any new cases regarding this, so the issue is dead.

Phoenix520 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 3:50 am A point to remember: CA’s redestricting is done by a citizen commission now, no longer by the legislature. Redistricting isn’t likely to be brutal here.

There's an argument to be made that if the California Legislative still did the redistricting, it could be super aggressive and attempt to gerrymander Republicans out of existence. And then roll the dice on the inevitable court challenge.

But a criticism about how New York redistricted was that its initial map was too aggressive; a modestly greedy map might have survived the court challenge.

DeSantis' efforts in Florida's maps undoubtedly helped Republicans gain a few seats there.

Stephen Miller spotted heading into McCarthy’s office just now.

Kendra wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:02 pm

Stephen Miller spotted heading into McCarthy’s office just now.

Wonder if he brought his 'drugs for chemical castration'

Have we ever had a minority Speaker of the House?

Or have any of the States experienced this?

mojosapien wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 12:26 pm Have we ever had a minority Speaker of the House?

Pelosi was the first* leader of a federal legislative chamber that wasn't a white male.

Harris is President of the Senate.

Willie Brown ran Sacramento for decades, including when he was the Speaker.


* Permanent; I'm not counting any possible three-days-during-a-recess technical answer.

I was thinking more if the Freedom Caucus splits the vote for McCarthy and either Pelosi or Hoyer gets elected.
But would happen is a revote until someone get a majority I believe... can't imagine anyyone pulling another Jim Traficant

I don’t think Nancy will put herself out there again. She’s done with that Caucus; she’s done with MAGAGAts. She’s done with what politics has devolved to - again.

It’s too bad Elon didn’t take his $44b and blow Fox News to smithereens.

mojosapien wrote: ↑Thu Nov 17, 2022 2:07 pm I was thinking more if the Freedom Caucus splits the vote for McCarthy and either Pelosi or Hoyer gets elected.

That won't happen because the Speaker needs a majority (not a plurality) of votes cast. If no one got a majority, the Speakership would be vacant until someone does.

That would happen if the Freedom Caucus didn't vote. But I doubt its members would do that; they can just vote "present" and deny everyone the Speakership.

The bold move would be for the Democrats to unanimously vote for a Dave Joyce (R-OH) and dare a dozen or so Republicans to vote for the Democrat's preferred moderate Republican.

Too also: McCarthy's already looking for Blue Dog Democrats to flip.

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1593634059703418882

Manu Raju @mkraju wrote: “I believe it is time to make a change,” Andy Biggs, who ran against McCarthy and lost his party’s nomination to speaker, said in an op-ed today. “I do not believe he will ever get to 218 votes, and I refuse to assist him in his effort to get those votes.”

So that's Biggs and Gaetz, in a strange twist mtg in now pro-McCarthy. But still, how razor thin is the R majority going to be? How many more defections can McCarthy sustain? I'd be sweating it a bit were I him, and making some phone calls to stay on top of any possible defectors.

There was a fluff piece about him on WaPo yesterday. The comment section was brutal.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... y-speaker/

Kevin McCarthy’s rise to power began in the wake of President Barack Obama’s election, when he became the chief strategist among a trio of self-described Republican “Young Guns” in the House who vowed to retake Washington as “common sense conservatives.” The strategy helped Republicans pick up a stunning 63 seats in the 2010 midterms and vaulted the native of Bakersfield, Calif., into the job of majority whip.

A dozen years later, after leading a tighter-than-expected midterm push to reclaim the House, McCarthy awaits an even loftier prize: speaker of the House.

But this time around, after watching the two other Young Guns depart following a withering political assault from the party’s right wing, McCarthy is a survivor and victor in part because of how much he has transformed himself to appeal to the party’s most conservative elements.

When Kevin McCarthy is simply not insane enough to be the Speaker of the House of Representatives of the United States of America.

When you really need somebody who is even crazier. Somebody who will do whatever Trump decrees, without question.

After all, McCarthy has, on rare occasions, shown flashes of rationality. We can't have that.

You know who'd be perfect? Empty Gee. She wouldn't even waste time learning any of the rules of the House. She'd just call Trump on the phone, and do whatever he tells her to do, and then spend the rest of the day being an insane bitch for a living, like she does.

Empty Gee! Empty Gee! Empty Gee! Empty Gee!

I fear that there will be enough horse trading and sycophancy with McCarthy that he will end up with the majority of votes to be the next Speaker.

He'll give cherry committee assignments to the "Freedom Caucus." He'll cross over into Trumpian territory often enough to placate those hard right Trumpistas. He'll let the Empty Gees and her elk file impeachment proceedings biweekly against Biden and his appointments.

The man has no spine, just like many others in the Rethuglican Party, including the OSG.

Ron Filipkowski 🇺🇦 @RonFilipkowski wrote: Rep. Ralph Norman, who opposes McCarthy for Speaker, says the renegade Republicans have a secret candidate to run against him who is not a House member: “It will be apparent in the coming weeks who that person will be. I will tell you, it will be interesting.”