Probable/Possible downstream effects of the Invasion and Sanctions

[Mr brolin]

In the current climate with sanctions, financial constraints and an interlinked global financial and material trading environment.. what about the knock-on effects.?

As an example

https://www.offshore-technology.com/new ... l-tighten/


In this climate, Chinese refiners are reportedly turning to alternative payment methods that bypass bank approval to maintain its supply of crude oil from Russia’s Far East Kozmino port. Specifically, buyers are using telegraphic transfer to send money to Russian companies upfront, increasing risk exposure for the Chinese refining companies.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... tions-bite

Sberbank PJSC said it’s looking at the possibility of issuing cards using Russian payments system Mir and China’s UnionPay after Visa Inc. and Mastercard Inc. suspended operations following the invasion of Ukraine.

The move could allow Russians to make some payments overseas, with UnionPay operating in 180 countries and regions. Visa and Mastercard said that any transactions initiated with their cards issued in Russia will no longer work outside the country from March 10.


The central bank of Russia advised its citizens to use cash abroad. It said Mir cards could also be used in Turkey, Vietnam, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and the breakaway territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

With a significant number of countries NOT supporting sanctions against Russia, varying from China, swathes of the Middle East, Africa and Latin America including Mexico will we see a split amongst those who will sanction and those who will sanction bust..?

For example

Would the US have the intestinal fortitude to sanction Mexico if the country becomes a pipeline for oil, gas and "alternative" financial arrangements for Russia..?

Ditto the US and UK if the Bahraini government declines to sanction or assists Russia, will they punish the sovereign nation that houses the 5th Fleet base and HMS Jufair (British port base)..?

Anyone think the US or the UK or the EU will sanction China.....?