Russia Invades Ukraine

[June bug]

What Kriselda and Foggy said. Plus, also:
When/if Putin installs a puppet government, look for a massive renewed “investigation” into Hunter Biden.

[bill_g]

Off Topic

An escalation of this war could lead to a worldwide carbon dioxide shortage.

I can hear everyone sighing, and wondering WTF am I talking about. All the sidebars about Russian natural gas supplies to Europe being interrupted reminded me of a story I read last Fall. See link above.

Natural gas is used in the production of nitrogen fertilizer, and an important byproduct is CO2. It is used commercially in a lot places. They use it to humanely euthanize animals destined for slaughter. It makes fizzy drinks. It keeps baked goods fresher longer. The list of things it is used for is enormous, and it's probably a list most people are not aware of. Interrupt the flow of natural gas, and the ripple effects will be felt all over. Not just cold homes in winter, and less electricity to run TV sets, but less construction welding, and less decaffinated coffee.

This Vox article discusses some of the other uses for CO2 that could actually benefit our environment.



One war, and one of the possible consequences that could directly effect us all.

[bill_g]

[raison de arizona]

We all know how Twitter rumors are, but seeing video and stories of Russian soldiers, some demoralized, stranded in various parts of Ukraine without fuel or food. The supposition is that Russia didn’t plan for this to take more than a day or two and are scrambling to set up some supply lines that just don’t exist and may be difficult to establish.

Grain of salt.

[RVInit]

[Volkonski]

Euromaidan PR
@EuromaidanPR
· 1h
WAR CRIME: #Russian forces fire at a bus, kill 5 and injure 6 in #Kharkiv Oblast.
All of the victims were residents of #Toretsk, a city near the front line in #Donetsk Oblast, according to Pavlo Kyrylenko, the head of the Donetsk Regional Administration #russianinvasion #Ukraine

[Volkonski]

[Foggy]

So are the Ukrainians really successfully fighting off the invasion? I'm seeing a lot of reports about individual incidents (thanks, V!), but I'm not seeing the big picture here.

If the Russians attempt to invade and conquer Ukraine and fail because the Ukrainians put up too much of a fight, Putin is going to lose his mind entirely. The whole thing is about proving how tough he is, that would devastate him.

I don't know how many resources he can pour into this thing. If he gets frustrated, can he order another 100,000 troops in? Does he get to the point where if he can't have Ukraine, nobody else can (yeah, I mean the Bomb)?

And all these Americans who backed Putin because 1) Trump did, and 2) they think he's a macho man, what happens to them if it turns out Ukrainian soldiers make Putin look weak? Because that's going to make Biden look strong, in a lot of eyes. What's Fox News gonna say, "Biden and the Ukrainians kicked Putin's ass"? Because that's not what Fox thinks is a good look.

[Volkonski]

[Foggy]

Lauren Bobo eat yer heart out. Those ladies are really going to fight.

[Chilidog]

My impression is...

Either someone (Putin) badly miscalculated the strategy here, or

The vaunted Russian military is a huge paper tiger.

The Russians are winning.... Marginally. But my bet is that this is not at all going like they thought that it would, and they have no viable exit strategy at this point. (Other than deposing Putin)

[pipistrelle]

Opinion is they thought Ukraine/Ukrainians would roll over quickly. Signs they were already bringing in police to manage civilian population.

[raison de arizona]

I've been reading a lot on the Twitters, and there is a contingent that I find convincing saying that Ukraine allowed the forward units to roll in too far and get cut off from supply lines, which now can't reach them. Maybe it was unintentional because of how quick everything happened, but it does seems to be the case. Who knows. I've seen a decent amount of videos of columns of Russian vehicles stranded without fuel though, and have heard a lot about hungry Russian soldiers looking for food. Dunno.

[Suranis]

The plan seems to have been to take the airport with Spetsnaz troops (Russian special forces, best troops the Russians have) then charge to the center of Kiev and claim the corrupt government was removed in a military coup, and then roll in. Instead the Airport attack failed as the Ukrainians threw in troops to retake the Airport, and the unexpectedly high resistance has bogged down the momentum.

Some people (in the Trump sense, that is I am speculating) are speculating that, while everyone has assumed that the oligarchs have been stuffing military money into their pockets, the looting has been actually far more expensive than anyone has realized, and they have actually very little logistics capacity at all. Plus, were are the advanced weapons they have been boasting about? Can the Oligarghs have looted the R&D budget completely dry?

While the fighting has been fierce, usually the Russians just bombard a place flat then move in. This makes up for their shitty troops and worse leadership. Ya we are seeing the odd missile strike, but where is the massive amount of artillery that we saw everywhere else? That's standard Russian tactics, so where is it? I mean hittin one apartment is tragic. And I've seen people speculate that it might have been a Ukranian Anti-Air Missile that hit that building and not a Russian missile at all. But for fuck sake, in Chechnya they reduced tall buildings to rubble

The Russians are not even leaving troops behind to hold their territorial gains, so Ukrainian Troops are running behind them and causing serious damage to their logistics. That's warfare 101, protect your backside.

The Russians don't seem to have achieved Air Superiority. Russian columns are being destroyed by Airstrikes. Which is amazing as the Ukrainian Airforce is actually fairly crap. It's got planes that the Russians sold off when they upgraded, and that's about it.

Its a fucking mess and it all seems to have been predicated on the assumption that Ukraine would fall in a day. It didn't happen. And losing those Spetsnaz troops is going to hurt. Those cant be replaced for years.

So, the Russians are not behaving like Russians, and in fact are behaving like... well, a paper tiger.

[pipistrelle]

[pipistrelle]

Putin may have underestimated Zelenskyy's leadership, thinking, "He's just an entertainer."

Earlier someone on Twitter pointed out Zelenskyy does not have bone spurs.

[Notaperson]

[Suranis]

Let us just speculate on what the fuck is wrong with the Hill, and US Media in general for that matter.

https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1497 ... 50/photo/1

The Hill@thehill
"Vladimir Putin wins big, yet again" (@TheHillOpinion) http://hill.cm/GL4SA4d

[Volkonski]

[bob]

The Hill@thehill
"Vladimir Putin wins big, yet again" (@TheHillOpinion) http://hill.cm/GL4SA4d

To be fair(-ish), that's an opinion piece by Avraham Shama.

But the point is well taken, as someone at The Hill authorized it. And it also had hired John Solomon.

[Volkonski]

At the Ukrainian border, a mother brings a stranger's children to safety

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk ... 022-02-26/

Waiting at the border crossing on the Ukrainian side, Ableyeva had met a desperate 38-year-old man from her home town of Kamianets-Podilskyi, with his young son and daughter.

The border guards would not let him pass. Ukraine has banned all Ukrainian men between the ages of 18 and 60 from leaving, so they can fight for their country.

"Their father simply handed over the two kids to me, and trusted me, giving me their passports to bring them over," 58-year-old Ableyeva said, the arms of the young boy she had known for just a few hours around her neck.

The children's Ukrainian mother was on her way from Italy to meet them and take them to safety, the father said. He gave Ableyeva the mother's mobile number, and said goodbye to his children, wrapped up against the cold in thick jackets and hats.

The children's mother met them at the border.

[pipistrelle]

I hope this is true.

[Volkonski]

CNN
@CNN
·
7h
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has turned down an offer from the United States of evacuation from the capital city Kyiv, the Ukraine embassy in Britain said Saturday on Twitter

[Volkonski]

[Notaperson]

Half of Russian troops amassed around Ukraine now invading, U.S. says

Russia has now pushed more than half of the 150,000-plus troops it had arrayed around Ukraine into the country, three days after an initial invasion that has met stiff, determined resistance and run into logistics and coordination problems.

The capital city of Kyiv has been breached by small groups of Russian troops, but the main thrust still appears to be on the horizon, as armored columns push from the north, west and south in a bloody dash for the seat of government. A spokesperson for Russia’s Defense Ministry said that as of Saturday morning “all units were given orders today to develop the offensive along all axes in line with the operation plan.”

Russia has launched more than 250 ballistic and cruise missiles at targets across the country over the past three days, and more tanks, armored vehicles, and electronic warfare capabilities have been seen flowing into the country over the past 24 hours. Ukrainian officials have posted images of a high-rise apartment struck by a missile, underscoring the continued danger to civilians.

In response, NATO allies have scrambled to resupply Ukrainian forces. U.K. Defense Minister Ben Wallace held a donor conference Friday aimed at shoring up support, and 27 nations pledged to send more weapons.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/2 ... e-00012089