p0rtia wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:10 pm
On a more cautionary note, a whole buncha researches are saying there is zero information on 1) transmissability and 2) whether or not Omicron can successfully compete with Delta, which pretty much wiped out all other variants.
They're saying two weeks before they have any idea about the above. 100 days to tweak the vaccine if needed, and new booster for Omicron if needed, by summer.
This is important to remember. We don't know how dangerous this variant is, or if its dangerous at all.
No point screaming blue murder until we know the answer to that
I'm fascinated by the virus and it's various variants. No screaming involved. This one is particularly fascinating because of its mutations and how quickly it is spreading, probably already in more counties then we currently know.
You can't wait until life isn't hard anymore before you decide to be happy.
The spread between countries is interesting and has implications for travel bans. International travel bans do not seem to be effective in preventing variants appearing in other countries. A delay perhaps, but that's all.
South African leaders were offended that their country found itself on travel bans, rather than being congratulated on excellent progress on understanding this variant. They thought offers of extra support would be more appropriate than isolation. I'm on their side: it looks like casual racism.
Reducing travel as part of the general mitigation measures is a different matter; like working from home mandates, it reduces the number of opportunities the virus has to jump from one person to another.
Important point on determining the severity of the omicron variant, made by a South African expert: most transmission now is occurring in younger people, as they are more socially active, but young people are generally less liable to experience bad symptoms from Covid infection than older folk.
The actual severity of the disease caused by the omicron variant will only become properly apparent as the infection moves from younger people to older people, which will not be for some weeks.
Just the article overview, please follow the links in the article or scroll down live reporting
Covid live: suspected German and Czech Omicron cases; UK expert says pandemic ‘reboot’ unlikely 61 travellers from South Africa test positive for Covid in Netherlands; unequal sharing of Covid vaccines likely to lead to more variants, thinktank warns; travel bans target countries across southern Africa
Suspected Omicron Covid cases found in Germany and Czech Republic
Omicron variant unlikely to reboot Covid in UK, expert says
Omicron variant spreads to Europe, UK announces countermeasures
US, UK, Canada and Australia restrict travel from southern Africa
First European case of new Covid variant detected in Belgium
What do we know about the new ‘worst ever’ Covid variant?
p0rtia wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:10 pm
On a more cautionary note, a whole buncha researches are saying there is zero information on 1) transmissability and 2) whether or not Omicron can successfully compete with Delta, which pretty much wiped out all other variants.
They're saying two weeks before they have any idea about the above. 100 days to tweak the vaccine if needed, and new booster for Omicron if needed, by summer.
The suggestion that this new variant is highly transmissible was a first conclusion by interpreting where the positions of changes in the DNA were observed. Otherwise, yes, research and observation "in the wild" need to be discussed by scientists.
p0rtia wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:10 pm
On a more cautionary note, a whole buncha researches are saying there is zero information on 1) transmissability and 2) whether or not Omicron can successfully compete with Delta, which pretty much wiped out all other variants.
They're saying two weeks before they have any idea about the above. 100 days to tweak the vaccine if needed, and new booster for Omicron if needed, by summer.
The suggestion that this new variant is highly transmissible was a first conclusion by interpreting where the positions of changes in the DNA were observed. Otherwise, yes, research and observation "in the wild" need to be discussed by scientists.
I know. The cautions encompassed the idea that the initial observations do not necessarily indicate initial infections. Thus appearances of rapid/efficient infection might be sort of artificially front-loaded, and needed further research.
p0rtia wrote: ↑Fri Nov 26, 2021 9:10 pm
On a more cautionary note, a whole buncha researches are saying there is zero information on 1) transmissability and 2) whether or not Omicron can successfully compete with Delta, which pretty much wiped out all other variants.
They're saying two weeks before they have any idea about the above. 100 days to tweak the vaccine if needed, and new booster for Omicron if needed, by summer.
The suggestion that this new variant is highly transmissible was a first conclusion by interpreting where the positions of changes in the DNA were observed. Otherwise, yes, research and observation "in the wild" need to be discussed by scientists.
I know. The cautions encompassed the idea that the initial observations do not necessarily indicate initial infections. Thus appearances of rapid/efficient infection might be sort of artificially front-loaded, and needed further research.
South Africa has complained that they were never consulted over the travel restrictions. I can understand that as a place of departure it is somewhat confrontational as they are possibly not the real origin, the origin may be in the bordering countries. But considering the way the virus initially travelled "in secrecy" original from China, I am in support of cutting potential travel vectors. Scientists have said that in a fortnight one can expect more details. Until then try to choke the oxygen from the critter. Shoot first - ask questions later. Especially when otherwise the dead could appear cause nobody took the preventive shot.
Lots of scientists out there yesterday saying travel restrictions to various countries don’t work. Doubt that is a position that will take hold, right or wrong.
Sam the Centipede wrote: ↑Sat Nov 27, 2021 6:30 am
Important point on determining the severity of the omicron variant, made by a South African expert: most transmission now is occurring in younger people, as they are more socially active, but young people are generally less liable to experience bad symptoms from Covid infection than older folk.
The actual severity of the disease caused by the omicron variant will only become properly apparent as the infection moves from younger people to older people, which will not be for some weeks.
Studies of the age distribution of deaths due to the 1918 Pandemic (which was actually between 1916 and 1921, beginning to end) shows that the illness mostly affected men and women between 15 and 44 years of age. The average age of death was 28 years old. In 2017 & 2018 there were several medical papers about that and that we will see a similar virus in the future.
You can't wait until life isn't hard anymore before you decide to be happy.
"We understand the concern of experts and have immediately initiated investigations on variant B.1.1.529," BioNTech said in a statement Friday. "We expect more data from the laboratory tests in two weeks at the latest."
Moderna announced in a statement Friday that it is "working rapidly" to test the ability of its current vaccine dose against the Omicron variant and data is expected in the coming weeks.
The company is also evaluating two multi-valent booster candidates to see if they provide superior protection against Omicron. Both candidates include some of the viral mutations present in the new variant.
Vaccine maker AstraZeneca is looking to understand the impact the Omicron variant has on its coronavirus vaccine, and it is also testing its antibody combination therapy against the new variant, a spokesperson for the company said on Friday.
The spokesperson said that the platform used in the vaccine enables the company to respond quickly to new variants.
"AstraZeneca is also already conducting research in locations where the variant has been identified, namely in Botswana and Eswatini, that will enable us to collect real world data of Vaxzevria against this new virus variant," they said.
At least 13 people who got tested at Amsterdam Schiphol airport after traveling from South Africa on Friday have tested positive for the Omicron coronavirus variant, Dutch health authorities said on Sunday.
The Netherlands' National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) said in a statement that the variant had been detected through the sequencing of 61 positive Covid-19 samples that were obtained at the airport on Friday.
The institute added that the sequencing work "had not been entirely completed" and that it was "possible that the new variant will be found in more test samples." Those who tested positive were sent to isolation, the authorities said.
The Omicron variant was first identified by scientists in South Africa, who raised alarm over its unusually high number of mutations on Thursday. Since then, at least dozen other have confirmed cases of the new strain, with several other reporting suspected cases.
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
Lani wrote: ↑Sun Nov 28, 2021 11:47 am
Other European counties have cases as well. And probably more since routine covid testing doesn't also test for which variant a person has.
Yes and no.
Routine PCR testing doesn't separate the earlier variants but about half of PCR test facilities can identify probable Omicron infections because the number of mutations in the S (spike) gene means it doesn't match the primer pair used for amplification of that gene (in ORF1ab of the polyprotein?) but the N (nucleocapsid) and E (envelope) (or whatever genes are tested) still match their primer pairs. So a positive signal on two channels but nothing on the S channel is a quick and dirty way of identifying Omicron RNA without full genetic sequencing, which is expensive and time-consuming.
That's how the South Africans track Omicron so quickly.
So trackability very much depends on the procedure the laboratories use.
I haven't heard anything about whether the change in the spike or other proteins is larger enough to cause lateral flow antigen tests to register false negatives. It depends which antibodies are used, and I haven't tried to find out.
"Choose your leaders with wisdom and forethought. To be led by a coward is to be controlled by all that the coward fears… To be led by a liar is to ask to be told lies." -Octavia E. Butler
Nine cases of Omicron variant found in the UK Britain told this is just the start
Chris Smyth, Whitehall Editor
Monday November 29 2021, 10.30am, The Times
The Omicron variant is already spreading in Britain after cases were found in Scotland with no link to travel.
Six cases were confirmed in Scotland this morning, taking the total to nine, but health officials fear that dozens are about to be confirmed.
Edward Argar, the junior health minister, insisted that Test and Trace could stay on top of the variant but accepted that the number of known cases would rise.
The Scottish government said this morning that four cases had been found in Lanarkshire and a further two in the Greater Glasgow and Clyde area.
“Breaking news” from the BBC:
“Omicron variant present in Europe earlier than previously thought
The new Covid-19 variant, Omicron, was detected in the Europe earlier than previously thought, with Dutch health officials saying it was present in the Netherlands over a week ago.
A spokesperson for the National Institute for Public Health says they have found the variant in two newly sequenced test samples taken between 19 November and 23 November.
"It is not clear yet whether these people have visited Southern Africa," the official says.
We first heard about the variant last week when it was first detected in South Africa on 24 November - which we now know was after the new Dutch cases were present in the Netherlands.”
Of course it's spreading out of control. This is the virus that spreads before it develops symptoms, remember. I'm certain it's already in Raleigh, North Carolina. Why wouldn't it be? We have an international airport and everything! Of course it's here, and it's spreading, and when it's spread far enough we'll start to detect it in the new sick people.