Biden is toast

[Foggy]

Oh yeah, and fourth question.

Who is the consensus candidate - who was too fearful to run against Joe Biden in the primaries and caucuses - but who we all agree is the best candy date to replace him on some of the state ballots?

[Sam the Centipede]

What should the name of the new political party be, after all the African Americans leave the Democratic Party in revolt?

'Scuse the non-American's ignorance: why might "all the African Americans leave the Democratic Party in revolt"?

Genuine question, I haven't been paying much attention and didn't know there was any racial dimension to this (although there's almost always a racial dimension to everything political!).

[sugar magnolia]

What should the name of the new political party be, after all the African Americans leave the Democratic Party in revolt?

'Scuse the non-American's ignorance: why might "all the African Americans leave the Democratic Party in revolt"?

Genuine question, I haven't been paying much attention and didn't know there was any racial dimension to this (although there's almost always a racial dimension to everything political!).

The racial division has been there for a very long time. At least 30 years ago, people were using "Democrat" as a replacement for the N-word and other slurs when they couldn't just outright say the slur.

[SuzieC]

The racial dimension is there because all the doomscreamers calling for Biden to drop out somehow pass over VP Harris as his replacement.

[p0rtia]

The racial dimension is there because all the doomscreamers calling for Biden to drop out somehow pass over VP Harris as his replacement.

This is most of it, IMO. Too also, plenty of women of all varieties take offense too.

David Plouffe (who somehow used to admire above all others in the field) was on MSNBC last night, speaking in his gentle and kindly way about the push to get Biden out (no mention in the set-up that he's been calling for Biden to step down for quite some time). He talked in seeming fairness about the difficulties, and the conflicts, and about how a the convention might pick a replacement.

The commentator (forget which one) said the obvious, "So you're skipping over Kamala?" or some such.

Plouffe replied, oh so reasonably, that he was was sure Kamala would would want to add her name to the list, and to be test by a competitive process. "I'm sure she would want to earn it," he concluded.

Fuck him and his competitive process. Fuck anyone who thinks anyone but Kamala is an alternative to Biden.

[Foggy]

Biden won the nomination in 2020 because of the black voters in South Carolina. They're still there and they still back Joe and I spoke with one this week and she said that black people are PISSED at the Democratic elite that is tanking their man.

[June bug]

[realist]

I have three questions:

What are you willing to do to force Biden to quit against his will?

How do you force pledged delegates at the convention to violate their pledge? and

What should the name of the new political party be, after all the African Americans leave the Democratic Party in revolt?

Because this is all about a minority of Democrats deciding they're in charge, using force to get their way, and they are going to FUCK the rest of us.

[realist]

And even if it were feasible to “pass the torch” or dump Biden at this late stage in the election process, I have to ask, pass the torch to whom?

Sure as hell Kamala isn’t going
To win a national election.

[Res Ipsa]

And even if it were feasible to “pass the torch” or dump Biden at this late stage in the election process, I have to ask, pass the torch to whom?

[realist]

And even if it were feasible to “pass the torch” or dump Biden at this late stage in the election process, I have to ask, pass the torch to whom?

[Sam the Centipede]

Thanks folks for clarifying the racial issues vis à vis Biden/not, Harris and others. I don't see US news media other than occasional short clips so I miss a lot of background. I had wondered why Harris seemed to be under-reported as a possible substitute for Biden, but she hasn't been hugely visible to us for'ners so I don't have a feel for how well she is VPing, how well her VPing is reported, how well regarded she is by party, how well she is regarded by the general voting population, etc.

So your comments are appreciated!

[RVInit]

I have three questions:

What are you willing to do to force Biden to quit against his will?

How do you force pledged delegates at the convention to violate their pledge? and

What should the name of the new political party be, after all the African Americans leave the Democratic Party in revolt?

Because this is all about a minority of Democrats deciding they're in charge, using force to get their way, and they are going to FUCK the rest of us.

It's also about donors. I don't know how they stand, it's being reported that his biggest most supportive donor and fundraiser has now asked him to step aside. I don't know if that is true or not and tend to want more evidence than what I am currently seeing, but, if it's true that is going to really bad.

[Suranis]

From 7th of July;

450309618_7903436343025033_3445722351120475725_n.jpg (31.07 KiB) Viewed 1186 times

The other thing, is.. well fuck it, lets go to Stonekettle Station a couple of weeks ago who put this much better than me.

https://www.stonekettle.com/2024/07/raggedy-man.html

► Show Spoiler

July 5

Raggedy Man




Out of the ruins
Out from the wreckage
Can't make the same mistake this time
We are the children
The last generation (the last generation, generation)
We are the ones they left behind
And, I wonder when we are ever gonna change, change


Mad Max.

The third one, I think.

Two men enter, one man leaves, that one. The one with post apocalyptic Tina Turner -- which is mostly just regular Tina Turner, but in chainmail. Back when you could watch Mel Gibson movies without cringing.

So, long time ago now, since that movie came out.

But you remember.

Anyway, despite the aforementioned Mel Gibson thing, it's still a damn good movie, if you're into Australian post nuclear war wasteland car flicks without the graphic brutality of the more recent installments.

There's a reason I mention it.

See, there's this one scene:

Max beat Blaster in the Thunderdome and was betrayed by his erstwhile allies. Now the whole town is after him and he's running for his life, again. Max and the Onlies, along with their former enemy Master, have busted out of Bartertown's pig shit methane factory, blowing up half the town in the process, and they're roaring down the rails through a nuclear wasteland on this slapped-together ramshackle circus train that's half truck and half locomotive with a dash of construction shack thrown in. They've got Aunty and an army of turbocharged barbarians chasing after them, hellbent on revenge. Max throws the last of the enemy warriors off the caboose and fights his way upstream to the engine where he's clinging to the outside of the door and over the roar of the motors and the wind he shouts to a guy artfully named "Pigkiller" in the driver's seat,

"So, what's the plan?"

"PLAN?!" Pigkiller laughs incredulously. "There ain't no plan!"

There ain't no plan. It's just ass backwards straight towards the radioactive horizon, a whoopin and a hollerin' and hopefully Bruce Spence will show up and fly us all to safety.

That scene has stuck with me over the years and I find it's a useful metaphor far more often than you would think.

You know where I'm going with this, don't you?

Sure you do.

So, what's the plan?

Here we are, hanging on for dear life, barbarians in hot pursuit, rolling ass backward through the apocalypse in a circus train full of howling mutants, and you're like, hey, let's shoot the engineer!

Yeah, let's just shoot the guy driving the train. Good idea, right?

So, tell me, what's the plan?

What's the plan after we shoot the engineer and toss him over the side?

You want Biden to step down, resign, drop out of the race, go away.

Let's face it, Ol' Creaky Joe had a good run. Sure. No one's arguing that. But after that one debate, woo, yeah, he's just dragging us down. Dead weight, man. We gotta dump him. Throw him off the train before the barbarian mutants catch us.

Turns out Republicans were right.

We can admit that, can't we? New York Times and the Wall Street Journal and Bernie Bros and Trump and the MAGAs were all right. It's Dementia Joe. He's just too damn old. And so here you are in my mentions, standing with Republicans and the Russians, calling for Biden to drop out. For the good of the nation. Of course. I mean, you're not an asshole. But, look at the guy. He needs a nap and a cup of hot cocoa.

We gotta get out while we can and find us a new hero.

Looking for something, we can rely on
There's gotta be something better out there
Ooh, love and compassion
Their day is coming (coming)
All else are castles built in the air

Right?

Right.

So, tell me, Pigkiller, what's your goddamn plan?

We're barely four months and some change away from the most important election of your lifetime. And you want to dump the one guy who has managed to win every single election he's ever been in, and who beat Trump last time around?

Yeah, yeah, I hear you. This Biden is a lot older than that Biden. Yep. I got it. I'm not arguing that. Biden is old. And tired. And he's slowing down. And maybe he's not as sharp as he used to be. Biden's in the back bedroom taking a nap while Trump is out golfing 18 holes and fucking 17-year-olds. That's all true, probably.

But we're one Steve Bannon prison sentence out from the election and you're talking about handing Biden over to the mutants.

I don't think I'm out of line here asking to see what you plan to do after that.


We don't need another hero
We don't need to know the way home
All we want is life beyond Thunderdome


You all love military metaphors. Military terminology.

This is war! you shout. We're in this fight to the end! We're ready for battle!

I've been to war. Couple times now. War was my profession, most of my life. I don't recommend it, but it worked for me. I know something about it.

You know who wins wars? Who wins the battle? Who ends up victorious in the end?

The army with the plan, that's who.

You can lose the general. You can lose the colonels and the captains and the lieutenants. Hopefully not all at once, but if you've got a good plan and you've got good people who can execute that plan, who can flex and improvise when needed, sergeants and foot soldiers who will stay the course, well, you can win. You will win, if you've got the courage to stay the course and hold the line.

But you got to have a plan.

Which is why we in the US military spend so much time and energy on planning. I know, I used to be a military war planner, amongst other things.

We're all in this fight together you tell me. Great. What's your plan?

We dump Biden. Then what?

Tell me how you spin up a full blown, fifty state, national campaign for an as-yet undetermined candidate in four months. Fully funded, fully staffed, organized, on the ground, on the air, on message, on target, in the ballots, in the debates, websites, pamphlets, buttons, slogans, yard signs, hats, bumper stickers, grassroots, in Trump's face and toe-to-toe.

Show me your plan for that.

Come on, let's see it.

Who's the candidate? Because liberals, lefties, progressives, democrats, can't even agree on what they already agree on -- see my aforementioned social media mentions for examples.

Where is that candidate? Where is that plan? The one we all agree on and are ready to fully support?

Because if you don't have that, and if you don't have that right fucking now, then you don't have a plan and you don't have a chance in hell.

All the children say
We don't need another hero
We don't need to know the way home
All we want is life beyond Thunderdome

Who's your candidate? Tell me.

Kamala Harris?

Is it? And we're all agreed on that, right? There's not going to be any fighting. We're all going to fall in line behind Kamala Harris, are we?

Heh, heh. Sure.

I like Harris. I'd vote for her. In fact, I liked her a lot better than Biden. Biden wasn't even in my top three, back in the day. I'd to love to see a woman of color as president, though that's not the reason I'd vote for her. That said, is Harris who we all agree on? Is she?

No, of course not.

No, we don't agree.

No, instead we're going to argue. We're going to argue bitterly even though we don't have the time for it. And we're going to argue and argue and argue some more while Trump is out there campaigning and mocking Democrats in disarray -- and he won't be wrong.

Some of us are not going to accept the results no matter who ends up the candidate.

And don't tell me you will, because you won't.

And you won't because you don't get to choose Biden's replacement.

The primaries are over.

The delegates are already pledged.

You had your vote.

Didn't think of that, did you?

There's no time. There's no mechanism for a do-over primary. If we're going to replace Biden, we have to do it now and democracy just isn't fast enough, even if liberals could actually agree on anything.

So, any replacement will perforce be selected by the party and you are not going to get any say in it.

You good with that?

Are you really?

Those of you still seething about the "anointment" of Hillary Clinton over Bernie Sanders? You're going to be good with the Democratic National Committee picking your candidate for you? Really? And the rest of you? Are you really going to be good with the party apparatus telling you who you're going to vote for in the general election?

Don't blow smoke up my ass and call it beef jerky.

We'll lose right there.

Some of you will be madder about that than you are about Trump taking away your rights. And you'll stay home, just like you did last time and we'll lose right there.

Might as well just hand the keys over to King Trump and hidey ho yourself down to the nearest concentration camp.

So, what do we do with our lives
We leave only a mark
Will our story shine like a light or end in the dark?
Give it all or nothing

And then there's the rest of it.

The practical aspects of changing horses midstream without drowning.

And the legal aspects. And the political ones.

As I noted up above, there is no national campaign for any other candidate. You'll have to create one from scratch, overnight, in fifty states. It's not just a matter of changing the names, there are legal aspects to it. Campaign finance law for one. Campaign filings with the state, ballot issues, and so on. And not every campaign staffer who supports Biden is going to support the new candidate -- for whatever reason. So you're going to need to hire at least some new people.

Where are you going to get the money?

No. No. Don't look away. Don't roll your eyes. Where you gonna get the money?

See, while it's possible that Biden's campaign war chest, those millions and millions of dollars, could be legally transferred to Harris, because she's already on the ticket with him, it's never been done before. There will most certainly be legal challenges -- by the Trump campaign if not various Democrats -- tying up that money for some period of time, maybe a long period of time.

And if the candidate is not Harris, well, then that money very likely can't be transferred and a new non-Harris candidate would have raise all new money themselves. Which takes us right back to the previous paragraph: How are you going to spin up a nationwide campaign across fifty states fast enough and powerful enough to challenge Trump without any money at first and when you can't just change the names on the Biden Campaign offices?

PACs?

Well, about that, Political Action Committees that accept money for one candidate can't just use it for another without certain legal issues. Now, a PAC can become a multicandidate PAC, but the rules for doing so are complex and have to meet pretty specific federal and state election requirements. You think you can do that in a couple of days? Fast enough to spin up a campaign in time? Across fifty states? Well enough to avoid legal challenges? Do you really?

Show me that plan.

No money. No campaign.

Yes, I see you. Rolling your eyes. In the back there.

You can wave your hands all you like, but you still have to answer the question. You still have to adhere to campaign finance law. You still have to have money to get elected. And you have to do it in such a manner that the other side, the one infamous for suing people and trying to overthrow elections, can't legally challenge you on it and de facto kill your campaign before you even start.

You have to have a plan to address all the legal requirements. Where is it?

States are already printing ballots and programming election equipment. It's a process. It's a long legal process and it has to be in order to prevent election fraud -- and to be able to withstand scrutiny when someone like Trump accuses the process of fraud in court.

There may not be time to swap out candidates.

Particularly in red states run by Trump supporters who don't want there to be time and who would love nothing better than Trump running unopposed in their state.

There are thousands of details like this, some legal, some practical, some political.

Some are solvable in time.

Many are not -- even if you did have a plan, and you don't.

Folks, we're on a runaway train, barreling through the wasteland, chased by mutants, ass backwards into the unknown. This isn't the time to throw the Engineer over the side. Yes, in this metaphor, Max was without doubt the far better driver and Pigkiller was crippled by a hole blown through his thigh. But you don't change the hand on the wheel in the middle of an escape and you need to remember that when it was all going to hell and they were neck deep in manure, it was Pigkiller who fired up the engine and got them all the hell out of bondage. No, this isn't the time to replace the Engineer. This is the time when you grit your teeth, put the hammer down all the way to the goddamn floor, cock your pistol, and ride full throttle for the horizon.

Biden may or may not win. That's up to you.

But you pull Biden off the ballot now, and Trump most certainly will.

See you around, Soldier.


And, I wonder when we are ever gonna change, change
Living under the fear, 'til nothing else remains
All the children say
We don't need another hero
We don't need to know the way home
All we want is life beyond Thunderdome
-- Tina Turner, We Don't Need Another Hero

SO WHAT'S YOUR PLAN, Francis?

The most people say is "we will have an orderly competitive selection process."

There is no mound of Bull Tyrannosaur Shit big enough to model that.

So what's your plan? Actual plan. Bells and whistles. Details. Voting process, selection of candidates, eligible voters if any, Counting methodology, plans for distributing ballots, hell plans for Printing ballots, where you are going to have lunch, Plans for toilet facilities. Etc.

WHERE'S YOUR PLAN?

[SuzieC]

I have three questions:

What are you willing to do to force Biden to quit against his will?

How do you force pledged delegates at the convention to violate their pledge? and

What should the name of the new political party be, after all the African Americans leave the Democratic Party in revolt?

Because this is all about a minority of Democrats deciding they're in charge, using force to get their way, and they are going to FUCK the rest of us.

It's also about donors. I don't know how they stand, it's being reported that his biggest most supportive donor and fundraiser has now asked him to step aside. I don't know if that is true or not and tend to want more evidence than what I am currently seeing, but, if it's true that is going to really bad.

We're hearing a lot of things that we don't know whether they are true or not. Evidence, you want evidence? Ha!
It's all anonymous sources, all the time. I'm so old that I remember when ethical media outlets would not publish a story without two on-the-record sources confirming.

[RVInit]

This thread could pretty much at this point be merged with the "should he/shouldn't he" thread since that seems to be what all the posts have devolved into, but this was busterbunker's thread, so would be his call.

[RVInit]

I have three questions:

What are you willing to do to force Biden to quit against his will?

How do you force pledged delegates at the convention to violate their pledge? and

What should the name of the new political party be, after all the African Americans leave the Democratic Party in revolt?

Because this is all about a minority of Democrats deciding they're in charge, using force to get their way, and they are going to FUCK the rest of us.

It's also about donors. I don't know how they stand, it's being reported that his biggest most supportive donor and fundraiser has now asked him to step aside. I don't know if that is true or not and tend to want more evidence than what I am currently seeing, but, if it's true that is going to really bad.

We're hearing a lot of things that we don't know whether they are true or not. Evidence, you want evidence? Ha!
It's all anonymous sources, all the time. I'm so old that I remember when ethical media outlets would not publish a story without two on-the-record sources confirming.

Yeah, I remember those days, too.

Until anything changes as much as I wish upon wish that Biden had NOT made the decision to run for reelection, and as much as I'm seeing polls where he is losing ground in the states he would need in order to get to 270 I am going to plod on. I'm taking the week off except for phone calling, but just don't have the energy to show up in person this week. Hopefully next week will be better, but it isn't looking particularly good.

[Sam the Centipede]

Just a thought: as a serial non-achiever and responsibility avoider I can't properly imagine myself into an exalted position like a presidency, not even of a tiny country. But …
… if I were Joe Biden, long career, widely praised vice-president, then successful president, but getting old, well past most folk's preferred retirement age, what would I do? A year or two ago I'd have been thinking "Mm, this has been a good gig, four more years might bring really horrible events, and I could be blamed for those bad things, fairly or not. So I think I'll call it a day so I can lock in my good reputation and people and history will be kind to me. And I can enjoy doing other lower pressure stuff too."

I think I understand Trump's desire to be the center of attention and power, and his lust for crushing those he perceives as enemies, but that's not the situation with Biden. I think he's slightly crazy to want another stint. But it's his, his family's, his party's and his country's decision, not mine.

[sad-cafe]

I voted for Biden

I will be furious if the stupids cause him to step down.

[p0rtia]

I voted for Biden

I will be furious if the stupids cause him to step down.

Yes, the idea of him being pushed to the side--disrespected and damned with faint praise--is sickening.

That said, the question seems to have become not "should he step aside" (no) but "will he step aside."

[Suranis]

Will he? No.

[Volkonski]

When Trump says/does ridiculous things the GOPers rally around him.

When Biden has an off night the Democrats rush to replace him.

Our nation may be doomed.

[pipistrelle]

When Trump says/does ridiculous things the GOPers rally around him.

When Biden has an off night the Democrats rush to replace him.

Our nation may be doomed.

That's what I think. We talk about the GOP imploding, but Democratic leadership seems determined to do same.

(And shouldn't this thread be merged with the first thread? The name of this one is...)

[Suranis]

This reminds me of when the press actually had people here talking seriously that you should get rid of Nancy Pelosi and Harry Ried, because they were "divisive figures" and the Republicans would not be so obstructionist, radical and crazy if they went away.

Guess what, kids, going with what the Press is telling you to do is making you lose. Because what they are telling you to do is lose.

And I was surprised by what someone said that he was watching Biden collapse in Polls, because he isn't. In fact the numbers have been very stable. The Press is probably TELLING YOU that Biden is collapsing in polls, but his actual numbers are not.

Lets take it to a guy who is actually watching the numbers. https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/hous ... werful-new

In my post yesterday, Voters in Europe, The UK and France Just Denied The Far Right Power. It’s Our Turn Now, I offered my latest thinking (including a video) about the 2024 election, recent polling and the debate around whether Biden should continue or pass the torch. I stand by what I wrote yesterday - this remains a close, competitive election. The polling has been remarkably stable for weeks now. Biden is at 276 Electoral College Votes in the 538 forecast this morning. Will the GOP Convention change things? We will see. And yes there was a new Emerson poll of the states that was not good for us today but it is deeply inconsistent with the dozens of polls we’ve seen in the last two weeks which have shown little movement in the race. I still believe that this election is winnable for us, that we can flip the House and keep the Senate but we are not where we want to be today and have work to do. It is critical that we do not let commentators red wave this election again, and for us to just keep our heads down and keep doing the work.

Biden is not toast. Stop believing it when they tell you he is.

[busterbunker]

You can merge this thread or delete it. I don't care. It's your forum, your country. I said Biden was toast months ago. I call them as I see them.

When it comes to the black vote, don't patronize me. I know what I'm seeing. "They took our jobs" ain't just a South Park meme.

I''ll up the ante. At this point, it ain't a question of Biden vs. another Dem. Trump's gonna win. I'll bet you a beer and would be more than happy to buy a round if I'm wrong.

But it might not be a bad idea to start Trump-proofing your future plans. That's all I'm saying.