A General thread for 2024 Presidential Elections

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bob
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#476

Post by bob »

raison de arizona wrote: Tue Jun 11, 2024 4:28 pm I heard on the radio last night that (known idiot) Nate Silver (speaking of 538) is predicting that Biden is going to drop out of the race...? Anyone know anything about Silver's latest pontifications?
Sounds like the usual game of telephone.

NY Post: Top pollster suggests it may be time for Biden to drop out of 2024 presidential race as approval rating hits ‘all-time low’:
Pollster Nate Silver warned Monday that President Biden’s approval ratings are so low, it may be time for him to reconsider seeking re-election in November.

“Biden just hit a new all-time low in approval (37.4%),” the data analyst and founder of FiveThirtyEight wrote on X, referencing his organization’s latest average of the president’s job approval numbers.

“Dropping out would be a big risk,” Silver argued. “But there’s some threshold below which continuing to run is a bigger risk.”

“Are we there yet? I don’t know,” the polling guru acknowledged. “But it’s more than fair to ask.”
So Silver's JAQing off somehow turned into a prediction. :roll:

"For completeness":
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#477

Post by raison de arizona »

Thanks for chasing that down bob, interesting stuff!
“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” —John Adams
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#478

Post by RTH10260 »

Videos of Biden looking lost are a viral political tactic: ‘low-level manipulation’
The edited videos are often posted to question the US president’s mental fitness at 81

Rachel Leingang
Wed 19 Jun 2024 12.00 CEST

Joe Biden wandered off.

Standing among the west’s major leaders in Italy last week, the US president turned away, seemingly in confusion, and had to be alerted back to the group to take a photo – at least, that’s what rightwing media showed.

“WHAT IS BIDEN DOING?” the Republican National Committee’s research Twitter account wrote.

In actuality, it was nothing strange at all. Biden had turned toward skydivers and given them a thumbs up, a broader view of the video showed.

It happened again at a fundraiser with former president Barack Obama. Biden “appears to freeze up” on stage, the New York Post wrote, saying Obama had to lead Biden off the stage in the latest example of the president being “dazed or confused”.

A zoomed-out video of the incident showed Biden waving and taking in the applause from the crowd after a lengthy discussion moderated by late-night host Jimmy Kimmel.

For viewers of rightwing media or social media feeds tailored toward conservatives, these videos of Biden surface near-daily in an attempt to underscore one of the president’s key liabilities, his age.

They’re often selectively edited to make Biden look, well, old. They kick off a series of headlines about how his age or senility is showing, then another series of headlines about how the videos are created to mislead.

The videos, and the subsequent hand-wringing over them, show how bifurcated today’s political and social media ecosystems are. Few watch a full speech or a full newscast, instead getting a quick example of what they missed from an account they align with. Your view of a given event – of a speech by a president, or a campaign rally - is colored first, and often predominantly, by the way it’s presented by the people you follow.

An NBC News editor referred to these video news cycles as a reflection of the online media ecosystem this election, calling them “a bizarre Rorschach test in which some people see one thing and most everyone else sees something else”.



https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/art ... ted-videos
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#479

Post by Suranis »

https://www.hopiumchronicles.com/p/bide ... ead-in-fox
Biden Gains 3 In New Fox Poll, Takes Lead - Last night Fox dropped a bombshell poll that found Biden gaining 3 points in the past month, 7 points since March and taking the lead in the Presidential race, 50%-48%. Here’s the opening of their article:

President Joe Biden is the frontrunner in a hypothetical matchup against [Trump] for the first time since October, as positive views of the economy inch up - hitting their highest level in the Biden presidency.

The article includes these two graphs:
Graph01.png
Graph01.png (99.25 KiB) Viewed 1490 times
Graph02.png
Graph02.png (90.2 KiB) Viewed 1490 times


Yes, heads are exploding all over MAGA land today. As I’ve been writing over the past few weeks, there are now many serious, credible polls showing recent movement to Biden. Like the Fox poll many also now have Biden now leading:

Fox News - 3 pt Biden gain, 50%-48% (7 pts since March)

Echelon - 4 pt Biden gain, 48%-47% (prominent GOP pollster)

CBS/YouGov - 3 pt Biden gain, 49%-50%

Morning Consult - 2 pt Biden gain, 44%-43%

Yahoo/YouGov - 2 pt Biden gain, 46%-44%

NYT - 2 pt Biden gain, 46%-47%

Another Murdoch outlet, the NYPost, released a poll last night also showing Biden up 2, 41%-39%. Redfield & Wilton’s monthly track also has Biden gaining 3 points since early May and now leading 41%-40%. A new Navigator poll has Biden up 4, 48%-44%. All of this new data is very encouraging. While we don’t have good new polling in the battlegrounds, we should expect to see better numbers for us there in the weeks ahead too.
Did I mention that Turnip is going to lose?
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#480

Post by RTH10260 »

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#481

Post by p0rtia »

Gift link. I swear, Arizona is the center of the storm. There are no crazies like AZ crazies. Not grifters, for the most part (Lake is the exception that proves the rule). A mix of insane and stupid like no one's ever seen before.

https://wapo.st/3zhJh5O
Trump campaign seeks to head off convention revolt from its right flank

Aides scrambled to foil a plot to throw the nominating process into chaos as suspicions abound about potentially disloyal delegates.
By Yvonne Wingett Sanchez and Isaac Arnsdorf June 22, 2024


PHOENIX — Arizona delegates to the Republican National Convention gathered this month in a Phoenix suburb, showing up to get to know each other and learn about their duties.

Part of the presentation included a secret plan to throw the party’s nomination of Donald Trump for president into chaos.
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#482

Post by raison de arizona »

Rebels without a cause.

But not in a cool way.
“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” —John Adams
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#483

Post by raison de arizona »

And if anyone is looking for another reason to say Fuck Jill Stein, here ya go!
Christopher Webb @cwebbonline wrote: WHOA!

Putin’s pawn, Jill Stein, paid a political consultant indicted for deepfaking Biden, more than $150,000 for ballot access work — according to her new FEC filing.

Steve Kramer might sound familiar, because he was also a consultant for former presidential candidate Dean Phillips when the deepfake robocall went out urging New Hampshire voters not to participate in the January 23 primary.

Kramer is now facing 26 criminal counts in New Hampshire of voter suppression and other crimes along with a $6 million fine from the FCC for telecom violations.
“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” —John Adams
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#484

Post by RTH10260 »

opinion piece
Silicon Valley wants unfettered control of the tech market. That’s why it’s cosying up to Trump
Spooked by Biden’s wealth tax, big tech venture capitalists are showing their progressive credentials were only ever skin deep

Evgeny Morozov
Wed 26 Jun 2024 12.00 CEST

Hardly a week passes without another billionaire endorsing Donald Trump. With Joe Biden proposing a 25% tax on those with assets over $100m (£80m), this is no shock. The real twist? The pro-Trump multimillionaire club now includes a growing number of venture capitalists. Unlike hedge funders or private equity barons, venture capitalists have traditionally held progressive credentials. They’ve styled themselves as the heroes of innovation, and the Democrats have done more to polish their progressive image than anyone else. So why are they now cosying up to Trump?

Venture capitalists and Democrats long shared a mutual belief in techno-solutionism – the idea that markets, enhanced by digital technology, could achieve social goods where government policy had failed. Over the past two decades, we’ve been living in the ruins of this utopia. We were promised that social media could topple dictators, that crypto could tackle poverty, and that AI could cure cancer. But the progressive credentials of venture capitalists were only ever skin deep, and now that Biden has adopted a tougher stance on Silicon Valley, VCs are more than happy to support Trump’s Republicans.

The Democrats’ romance with techno-solutionism began in the early 1980s. Democrats saw Silicon Valley as the key to boosting environmentalism, worker autonomy and global justice. Venture capitalists, as the financial backers of this new and apparently benign form of capitalism, were crucial to this vision. Whenever Republicans pushed for measures favourable to the VC industry – such as changes in capital gains tax, or the liberalisation of pension fund legislation – Democrats eventually acquiesced. On issues such as intellectual property, Democrats have actively advanced the industry’s agenda.

This alliance has shaped how the US now finances innovation. Public institutions such as the National Science Foundation and National Institutes of Health fund basic science, while venture capitalists finance the startups that commercialise it. These startups, in turn, build on intellectual property licensed from recipients of public grants to design apps, gadgets and drugs. A good chunk of these profits, naturally, flows back to the venture capitalists who own a stake in these startups. Thanks to this model, Americans now pay some of the highest drug prices in the world – yet when politicians have tried to curb these egregious outcomes, they have been met with accusations from the VC industry that they’re undermining progress.

Venture capitalists have been keen to emphasise the role they play in delivering progress. Through podcasts, conferences and publications, they have successfully recast their interests as those of humanity at large. For a clear distillation of this worldview, look no further than The Techno-Optimist Manifesto, a 5,200-word treatise by Marc Andreessen, co-founder of the VC firm Andreessen Horowitz. Its jarring universalism suggests that all of us – San Francisco’s venture capitalists and homeless alike – are in this together. Andreessen urges readers to join venture capitalists as “allies in the pursuit of technology, abundance, and life”. Yet his text quickly reveals its true colours. “Free markets,” he writes, “are the most effective way to organise a technological economy.” (Andreessen has criticised Biden without endorsing Trump.)



https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... apitalists
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#485

Post by raison de arizona »

Liars, them all. Especially this turd.
Mike Sington @MikeSington wrote: “Have you ever looked at Donald Trump’s social media account?” CNN anchor John Berman rips Vivek Ramaswamy when he makes the outlandish claim Trump is trying to unify the country. (Video: CNN)
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#486

Post by raison de arizona »

OPINION: THE ELECTION IS NOW ABOUT CHOOSING AMERICA’S FIRST KING

In a surprise move, SCOTUS has made the upcoming 2024 presidential election about choosing the United States first essential King. A president with King-like powers, basically. A democracy in name, only.

This is how democracies die, not in darkness run by a sketchy British overlord at the Washington Post, but that’s not helping. But through the weaponization of the law. One need only look at Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, from whom U.S. Republicans take instruction, on how to overthrow a democracy without a violent revolution, via a 12 point plan to attack democracy and consolidate power.

It’s called soft fascism or soft authoritarianism. It’s done by changing the law. It’s done by taking over the media.

And those two things are happening right now and have been happening for a while now. Our two legacy papers have evolved into pushing an oligarchy of the 1%, and many local papers and TV have been taken over by wealthy conservatives. This is not meant as an indictment on or even a reflection of the excellent journalists at these establishments, but solely upon the leadership. (Please do not yell at journalists; direct your righteous anger at their overlords and stop supporting their businesses.)

The exceptionally corrupt conservative-majority U.S. Supreme Court appears to have handed the presidency the powers of a King. This is antithetical to the founders’ intentions, as the Revolutionary War against the rule of Britain under King George III proved. George Washington did not rule as a King.

But if the next election is about installing a president who will act as a King, or have the powers of a King — which the court has just ruled that President Biden has right now, knowing as they must that Joe Biden would never abuse that power (something his team might need to rethink) — then everyone must choose carefully.

The first U.S. King:

1. Must campaign on using their King powers to re-establish the separation of powers and use the power of the King to dismantle those same powers.

2. Must use their King powers to root out corruption at the Supreme Court, getting rid of all 6 Republicans and installing 6 fair minded people with track records of fierce loyalty to freedom and independence who have the courage to hold the powerful accountable and believe the law applies to everyone.
:snippity:
https://www.politicususa.com/2024/07/01 ... -king.html
“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” —John Adams
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#487

Post by raison de arizona »

Image
Devin Nunes’ Alt-Mom @NunesAlt wrote: On one hand, child rapist, but on the other hand, bad debate performance.

What’s an American voter supposed to think?
https://x.com/NunesAlt/status/1808615442908655918
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#488

Post by neonzx »

Didn't know what thread to throw this in because it is so stupid but is still politics.

Cookies in the Oval!! :eek: McCarthy is very depressed by this. And Biden got up and served them himself!

Seems he forgot that even Reagan offered Jelly Beans to his Oval visitors.



Acyn@Acyn
McCarthy: In Biden’s Oval Office, there are cookies. He offers you cookies every time you’re in there. And he goes and gets them. It is a depressing moment.
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#489

Post by Foggy »

That's communism. :fingerwag:

Or maybe cookieism. :whistle:
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#490

Post by pipistrelle »

Can someone explain why that's depressing? I'm not getting it.
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#491

Post by Volkonski »

pipistrelle wrote: Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:11 am Can someone explain why that's depressing? I'm not getting it.
Cookies are for children and liberals. ;) Real men don't fetch cookies themselves. :fingerwag: Their servants bring them. ;)
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
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#492

Post by pipistrelle »

Having seen some of the MAGA (Meal Team 6) and knowing how they complain how poor they are (thanks, Obama), I don't think they miss out on cookies, nor do they have servants. :twisted:
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#493

Post by RTH10260 »

Volkonski wrote: Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:18 am
pipistrelle wrote: Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:11 am Can someone explain why that's depressing? I'm not getting it.
Cookies are for children and liberals. ;) Real men don't fetch cookies themselves. :fingerwag: Their servants there are Black jobs to bring them. ;)
FIFY
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#494

Post by Slim Cognito »

neonzx wrote: Thu Jul 04, 2024 9:57 am Didn't know what thread to throw this in because it is so stupid but is still politics.

Cookies in the Oval!! :eek: McCarthy is very depressed by this. And Biden got up and served them himself!

Seems he forgot that even Reagan offered Jelly Beans to his Oval visitors.



Acyn@Acyn
McCarthy: In Biden’s Oval Office, there are cookies. He offers you cookies every time you’re in there. And he goes and gets them. It is a depressing moment.
Personally, I think that's lovely;

Compared to trump who expected people to bring him Starburst in the preapproved colors.

Too also, take that all you grannies (and pawpaws) who generously serve cookies to people who drop by. You're weak and senile!!!!!!
May the bridges I burn light my way.

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#495

Post by raison de arizona »

Glenn Kirschner @glennkirschner2 wrote: Congratulations on being selected to serve on the next jury that will decide Trump's guilt or innocence. Given that none of Trump's other cases will be tried before Nov., We The People are the final jury standing between Trump & dictatorship. And on Nov. 5, we WILL vote guilty!
“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” —John Adams
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#496

Post by sugar magnolia »

In no known universe are cookies depressing.
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#497

Post by raison de arizona »

sugar magnolia wrote: Thu Jul 04, 2024 4:49 pm In no known universe are cookies depressing.
I know I feel an existential pain when tech support tells me, "First, delete all your cookies." No! Then I have to log into EVERYTHING all over again!

Oh, what cookies are we talking about? ;)
“Remember, democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes, exhausts, and murders itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide.” —John Adams
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#498

Post by sugar magnolia »

raison de arizona wrote: Thu Jul 04, 2024 4:50 pm
sugar magnolia wrote: Thu Jul 04, 2024 4:49 pm In no known universe are cookies depressing.
I know I feel an existential pain when tech support tells me, "First, delete all your cookies." No! Then I have to log into EVERYTHING all over again!

Oh, what cookies are we talking about? ;)
Exactly.
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#499

Post by p0rtia »

sugar magnolia wrote: Thu Jul 04, 2024 4:49 pm In no known universe are cookies depressing.

As someone recently discovered the joys of comfort eating, I agree.
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#500

Post by tek »

sugar magnolia wrote: Thu Jul 04, 2024 4:49 pm In no known universe are cookies depressing.
well, there's raisin cookies that you THOUGHT were chocolate chip...
;)
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