Spring forward.
To delete this message, click the X at top right.

NATO - what does the future hold?

User avatar
Volkonski
Posts: 11589
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:06 am
Location: Texoma and North Fork of Long Island
Occupation: Retired mechanical engineer
Verified:

NATO - what does the future hold?

#76

Post by Volkonski »

Hungary parliament backs Finland's NATO accession, Swedish bid pending

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hu ... ce=twitter
Hungary's parliament approved a bill on Monday to allow Finland to join NATO once its application has been ratified by all 30 members of the alliance, ending months of foot-dragging by the ruling Fidesz party on the matter.

Finland and Sweden asked to join the trans-Atlantic military alliance last year in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But the process has been held up by Turkey and Hungary.

Although Finland's bid has now been approved, the Swedish bill is still stranded in the Hungarian parliament.
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
User avatar
johnpcapitalist
Posts: 809
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 7:59 pm
Location: NYC Area
Verified: ✅ Totally legit!

NATO - what does the future hold?

#77

Post by johnpcapitalist »

Volkonski wrote: Mon Mar 27, 2023 3:45 pm Hungary parliament backs Finland's NATO accession, Swedish bid pending
Hungary's parliament approved a bill on Monday to allow Finland to join NATO once its application has been ratified by all 30 members of the alliance, ending months of foot-dragging by the ruling Fidesz party on the matter.
I think Hungary saw the light, perhaps with a gentle behind-the-scenes nudge by the EU, or perhaps on its own. I think the scenario is simple: Hungary has a GDP of about $180 billion, one of the lowest per capita of a mid-sized or larger country in Europe. There are a number of large industrial plants from German and other countries located there to take advantage of cheap labor rates. Perhaps the largest is Audi's plant in Gyor, which probably did over 8 billion euros (almost 5% of GDP) last year.

A weakening economy plus a nudge from EU to Audi could cause that plant to be the first auto plant in Audi's portfolio to be shut down, and that single plant alone would tip the Hungarian economy into recession. A handful of others would hammer it. Europe is more likely to have a tough 2023 than North America, so there's a lot more risk in not going along with the EU program than when things were rosy. Hungary doesn't have the financial firepower to carry the population after a big jump in unemployment for too long.

I also think Orban realizes that pissing off the EU is not working really well for the UK, as the EU didn't really give up an inch on the Brexit negotiations, and the Brits will be suffering from disobeying the EU for decades to come. So he's got to be thinking that if the EU jerks his chain, it's going to hurt more than he thought previously.

Better to go along with the program now rather than trying to be friends with other totalitarians like Putin. He will probably go along with Sweden's accession to NATO when Erdogan in Turkey does.

Incidentally, the announcement last week that the four Nordic countries would set up a joint air force command was a brilliant political move to devalue Erdogan's obstinacy in voting Sweden into NATO. It's a clear message that a joint air command gives them a significant fraction of the benefits of Sweden in NATO without Erdogan's approval. So his leverage just went down. Wait for a pair of announcements of unified Nordic naval and ground commands in a couple of months if Erdogan doesn't cave in. Of course, the truth is that there's already a lot of coordination already in place, so none of that is a huge sea change from the way the four countries work with each other and with the US and with NATO as a whole.
Dave from down under
Posts: 3908
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2021 4:50 pm
Location: Down here!

NATO - what does the future hold?

#78

Post by Dave from down under »

Very inciteful - thank you!
User avatar
Foggy
Dick Tater
Posts: 9554
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:45 am
Location: Fogbow HQ
Occupation: Dick Tater/Space Cadet
Verified: as seen on qvc zombie apocalypse

NATO - what does the future hold?

#79

Post by Foggy »

I think (hope) you meant insightful. :lol:

I don't think JPC is trying to incite anything. :blackeye:
Out from under. :thumbsup:
Dave from down under
Posts: 3908
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2021 4:50 pm
Location: Down here!

NATO - what does the future hold?

#80

Post by Dave from down under »

:bag:

:yeah:
User avatar
Kriselda Gray
Posts: 3125
Joined: Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:48 pm
Location: Asgard
Occupation: Aspiring Novelist
Verified:
Contact:

NATO - what does the future hold?

#81

Post by Kriselda Gray »

:rotflmao:
Dave from down under
Posts: 3908
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2021 4:50 pm
Location: Down here!

NATO - what does the future hold?

#82

Post by Dave from down under »

:thumbsup:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-03-31/ ... /102169694

Turkey's parliament has ratified Finland's application to join NATO, lifting the last hurdle in the way of the Nordic country's long-delayed accession into the Western military alliance.

Key points:
After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Finland and Sweden abandoned their policy of non-alignment and applied to join NATO
Turkey had initially blocked both Finland and Sweden, claiming they were harbouring "terrorists"
Sweden's bid to join the alliance has still not been approved by Turkey nor Hungary

All 276 politicians present voted in favour of Finland's bid, days after Hungary's parliament also endorsed Helsinki's accession.

"This will make the whole NATO family stronger & safer," NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg wrote on Twitter in welcoming Turkey's action.
User avatar
Greatgrey
Posts: 893
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 9:53 am
Location: Unimatrix Zero
Verified: 💲8️⃣

NATO - what does the future hold?

#83

Post by Greatgrey »

What's the Frequency, Kenneth?
User avatar
Volkonski
Posts: 11589
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:06 am
Location: Texoma and North Fork of Long Island
Occupation: Retired mechanical engineer
Verified:

NATO - what does the future hold?

#84

Post by Volkonski »

:biggrin: :thumbsup:
Finland to join Nato on Tuesday as Russia sounds border warning
Moscow threatens to bolster border defences if western military alliance deploys troops inside Finland


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... er-warning
Finland will become the 31st member of the world’s biggest military alliance on Tuesday, the Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, has said, prompting a warning from Russia that it would bolster its defences near their joint border if Nato deploys any troops inside the country.

“This is a historic week,” Stoltenberg told reporters on the eve of a meeting of Nato foreign ministers in Brussels. “From tomorrow, Finland will be a full member of the alliance.” He said he hoped Sweden would be able to join in coming months.

Stoltenberg, a former Norwegian prime minister, said that on Tuesday afternoon, “we will raise the Finnish flag for the first time here at the Nato headquarters. It will be a good day for Finland’s security, for Nordic security, and for Nato as a whole.”

Stoltenberg said Turkey, the last country to ratify Finland’s membership, would hand its official texts to the US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, on Tuesday. Stoltenberg said he would then invite Finland to do the same.

The Finnish president, Sauli Niinistö, and the defence minister, Antti Kaikkonen, will attend the ceremony, along with the foreign minister, Pekka Haavisto.

“It is a historic moment for us. For Finland, the most important objective at the meeting will be to emphasise Nato support to Ukraine as Russia continues its illegal aggression,” Haavisto said in a statement. “We seek to promote stability and security throughout the Euro-Atlantic region.”

Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Alexander Grushko, said Moscow would respond to Finland becoming a member of the alliance by bolstering its defences if needed.
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
User avatar
Volkonski
Posts: 11589
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:06 am
Location: Texoma and North Fork of Long Island
Occupation: Retired mechanical engineer
Verified:

NATO - what does the future hold?

#85

Post by Volkonski »

Axios

BREAKING: Finland becomes 31st member of NATO

https://www.axios.com/2023/04/04/finlan ... a-invasion
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
User avatar
Volkonski
Posts: 11589
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:06 am
Location: Texoma and North Fork of Long Island
Occupation: Retired mechanical engineer
Verified:

NATO - what does the future hold?

#86

Post by Volkonski »

“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
User avatar
Volkonski
Posts: 11589
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:06 am
Location: Texoma and North Fork of Long Island
Occupation: Retired mechanical engineer
Verified:

NATO - what does the future hold?

#87

Post by Volkonski »

Image
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
User avatar
Kriselda Gray
Posts: 3125
Joined: Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:48 pm
Location: Asgard
Occupation: Aspiring Novelist
Verified:
Contact:

NATO - what does the future hold?

#88

Post by Kriselda Gray »

Why are Turkey and Hungary dragging their feet on Sweden?
User avatar
Volkonski
Posts: 11589
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:06 am
Location: Texoma and North Fork of Long Island
Occupation: Retired mechanical engineer
Verified:

NATO - what does the future hold?

#89

Post by Volkonski »

Kriselda Gray wrote: Tue Apr 04, 2023 9:32 am Why are Turkey and Hungary dragging their feet on Sweden?
Rightwing Swedes held an anti-Islam demonstration recently that angered Erdogan.

Hungarian prime minister Orban is a pro-Trumper with dictatorial ambitions.
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
Dave from down under
Posts: 3908
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2021 4:50 pm
Location: Down here!

NATO - what does the future hold?

#90

Post by Dave from down under »

Kriselda Gray wrote: Tue Apr 04, 2023 9:32 am Why are Turkey and Hungary dragging their feet on Sweden?
Because Sweden is not doing to the Kurds there what Turkey wants done.

Hungary because while Turkey holds out Hungary can too
User avatar
Kriselda Gray
Posts: 3125
Joined: Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:48 pm
Location: Asgard
Occupation: Aspiring Novelist
Verified:
Contact:

NATO - what does the future hold?

#91

Post by Kriselda Gray »

So, basically they're being buttheads. Got it.
User avatar
johnpcapitalist
Posts: 809
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 7:59 pm
Location: NYC Area
Verified: ✅ Totally legit!

NATO - what does the future hold?

#92

Post by johnpcapitalist »

Volkonski wrote: Tue Apr 04, 2023 9:36 am
Kriselda Gray wrote: Tue Apr 04, 2023 9:32 am Why are Turkey and Hungary dragging their feet on Sweden?
Rightwing Swedes held an anti-Islam demonstration recently that angered Erdogan.

Hungarian prime minister Orban is a pro-Trumper with dictatorial ambitions.
Erdogan has been upset that Sweden is pro-Kurdish, which goes back years. He initially demanded the extradition of activists he accuses of terrorism as well as a clampdown on freedom of speech for pro-Kurdish groups. The latter is counter to Swedish freedom of speech laws, of course, and Erdogan knew it. It always seemed like this was a way to get more concessions out of the US, probably in the form of military technology, like more F-15s or F-16s. The Kurds in Sweden are much less of a problem for him than the fact that his political nemesis Fethula Gullen is exiled in rural Pennsylvania, and he has tried to get Gullen extradited for many years. So the issue is really ginned up.

The announcement a couple weeks ago of a unified air force command structure at the four Nordic countries was a not-so-subtle notice that if he continued to block Sweden's NATO accession, they would simply work around that. If he's still obstinate, watch for a unified naval command announcement in a couple months, followed a bit later by a unified ground forces command announcement. So they're lowering the value of his ability to gum up the process.

This will probably be on hold until after the May 14 elections, where Erdogan's neck-and-neck with his rivals in the polls for the first time in a long time, and he may actually lose given his mishandling of the earthquake issue and the corruption around poor quality apartment construction. After that, it'll probably get handled quietly, regardless of who wins.

Hungary is doing this just to try to wring concessions out of anybody it can, given their struggling economy (one of the poorest in Europe), but nobody's buying it. Orban is looking all the weaker for having opposed Finland and now Sweden.
User avatar
Kriselda Gray
Posts: 3125
Joined: Sun Nov 28, 2021 10:48 pm
Location: Asgard
Occupation: Aspiring Novelist
Verified:
Contact:

NATO - what does the future hold?

#93

Post by Kriselda Gray »

Thanks, JPC - I appreciate you taking time to explain all that!
User avatar
Volkonski
Posts: 11589
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:06 am
Location: Texoma and North Fork of Long Island
Occupation: Retired mechanical engineer
Verified:

NATO - what does the future hold?

#94

Post by Volkonski »

France supports Ukraine's membership of NATO in order to influence Russia, Le Monde reports.

The French government has decided to support Ukraine's membership in the North Atlantic Alliance, following the example of Poland and the Baltic states, abandoning its more cautious stance to increase pressure on Russia.
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
Dave from down under
Posts: 3908
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2021 4:50 pm
Location: Down here!

NATO - what does the future hold?

#95

Post by Dave from down under »

urkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has agreed to forward to parliament Sweden's bid to join the NATO military alliance, appearing to end months of drama over an issue that had strained the bloc as war has raged in Ukraine.

Key points:
The Turkish parliament will ratify Sweden's NATO membership "as soon as possible," Jens Stoltenberg says
Finland and Sweden applied to join the alliance last year, ending decades of military non-alignment
Applications must be approved by all NATO members, but Türkiye and Hungary have held off on clearing Sweden's bid

"I'm glad to announce … that President Erdogan has agreed to forward the accession protocol for Sweden to the grand national assembly as soon as possible, and work closely with the assembly to ensure ratification," NATO secretary-general Jens Stoltenberg said on the eve of a summit in Vilnius.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-11/ ... /102585556
User avatar
Volkonski
Posts: 11589
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 11:06 am
Location: Texoma and North Fork of Long Island
Occupation: Retired mechanical engineer
Verified:

NATO - what does the future hold?

#96

Post by Volkonski »

Darn.

Once again my hopes that Türkiye would be expelled from NATO thus clearing the way for a massive US led invasion which would avenge my great great grandfather's family who were slaughtered by the Ottomans during the Greek War of Independence.

In the latter part of the 19th Century most of the areas of North Africa under Ottoman control were freed. :thumbsup:

In the early 20th Century most Ottoman lands in SE Europe were liberated during the 1st and 2nd Balkan Wars. :thumbsup:

In WW I Ottoman forces were driven from Palestine and many other Middle Eastern areas. :thumbsup:

However the failure of Britain, France and Russia in the Gallipoli campaign left the remains of the Ottoman Empire free to become modern Türkiye. :(

Cold war politics after WW II allowed Türkiye to survive once again. :mad:

Volkonskis never forget and never forgive. We live for the day when Anatolia will be partitioned amongst the Kurds, the Armenians and the Greeks.

A disarmed rump Türkiye in the lands adjacent to Ankara may be allowed to remain.

Well, I can dream can't I? ;)
“If everyone fought for their own convictions there would be no war.” ― Leo Tolstoy, War and Peace
User avatar
keith
Posts: 3705
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:23 pm
Location: The Swamp in Victorian Oz
Occupation: Retired Computer Systems Analyst Project Manager Super Coder
Verified: ✅lunatic

NATO - what does the future hold?

#97

Post by keith »

Volkonski wrote: Tue Jul 11, 2023 3:40 am :snippity:

However the failure of Britain, France, AUSTRALIA and New Zealand, and Russia in the Gallipoli campaign left the remains of the Ottoman Empire free to become modern Türkiye. :(

:snippity:
FIFY (but I realize Australia and NewZealand are lumped under the British)

Gallipoli is considered to have established 'national character consciousness' of Australia. Before Gallipoli, Australians still considered themselves 'British', after Gallipoli, Australians considered themselves as Australians.
(From Wikipedia) The campaign is often considered to be the beginning of Australian and New Zealand national consciousness. The anniversary of the landings, 25 April, is known as Anzac Day, the most significant commemoration of military casualties and veterans in the two countries, surpassing Remembrance Day (Armistice Day).
ETA: Not only but also, John Butler (John Butler Trio) was on the Australian version of "Who Do You Think You Are" and revealed that his great grandfather and uncles were in an anti-Ottoman revolt in Bulgaria. It was the most interesting WDYTYA episode I have seen.
Has everybody heard about the bird?
Dave from down under
Posts: 3908
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2021 4:50 pm
Location: Down here!

NATO - what does the future hold?

#98

Post by Dave from down under »

Newfoundland was also at Gallipoli.. I go with blaming them ;)

I say the failure of the Salonika campaign was also to blame..

https://www.iwm.org.uk/history/a-short- ... a-campaign
jemcanada2
Posts: 952
Joined: Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:12 am

NATO - what does the future hold?

#99

Post by jemcanada2 »

Have you seen the Canadian film, Ararat? It’s a quirky Canadian film directed by Atom Egoyan about the Armenian genocide from past and present views.
Dave from down under
Posts: 3908
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2021 4:50 pm
Location: Down here!

NATO - what does the future hold?

#100

Post by Dave from down under »

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-07-12/ ... /102589884

An impetuous outburst or a carefully targeted verbal missile?

That was one of the many questions posed on the opening day of the NATO conference in Lithuania after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took to Twitter to describe a possible NATO communique as "unprecedented and absurd".

Other key themes of day one were the way key NATO countries, such as France and the UK, are now providing Ukraine with exactly the military hardware it wants, how the strongman of Türkiye, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has earned himself a reserved seat at the top table, and why there is such strong support for NATO in smaller countries such as Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
Post Reply

Return to “Russian Invasion of Ukraine”