Brexit

[AndyinPA]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... s-diplomat

Boris Johnson is “an unrepentant and inveterate liar” who feels he is not subject to the same rules as others, Sylvie Bermann, the former French ambassador to the UK during the Brexit vote, says in a new book.

She also claims some Brexiters are consumed with hatred for Germany and gripped by a myth that they liberated Europe on their own, describing Brexit as a triumph of emotion over reason, won by a campaign full of lies in which negative attitudes to migration were exploited by figures such as Johnson and Michael Gove.

Bermann, who served as the French ambassador to the UK from 2014 to 2017 and has been one of the most senior diplomats in the French diplomatic service, including as ambassador to China and to Russia, assesses the British handling of the Covid pandemic as among the worst in the world alongside that of Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil. She predicts Johnson will seek to use Covid to mask the true economic cost of Brexit on the UK economy.

[Uninformed]

“Brexit: DUP agriculture minister orders Brexit check construction halt”:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-56217647

One can rely on the DUP to exacerbate any given problem.

[Uninformed]

“Brexit: EU says UK grace period extension breaches international law”:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-56262527

[SlimSloSlider]

“Brexit: EU says UK grace period extension breaches international law”:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-56262527

The Tories and Brexiters have been in bad faith throughout this interminable process.
They will only succeed in shattering the UK.

[raison de arizona]

“Brexit: EU says UK grace period extension breaches international law”:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-56262527

WTF, the UK thinks they can just unilaterally extend the grace period seven months and everyone will just smile and go along with it? Is there anyone left in a position of power there with any common sense?

[Uninformed]

“Brexit: EU legal action imminent over UK extension to grace periods”:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-56285874

[Volkonski]

Derbyshire cheese maker upset at £180 post-Brexit Stilton fee

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-der ... ampaign=64

Simon Spurrell, the director of Hartington Creamery, said each parcel, palette or container of Stilton required a veterinary surgeon certificate costing £180 per destination.

With the average online order costing just £30, he said there was "absolutely no way" they could continue with what was a lucrative online sales business before Brexit.

"About 20% of our overall online turnover was with the EU," he said.

"We've had that completely and utterly wiped off overnight."

[Volkonski]

How Brexit Ruined Easter for Britain’s Chocolate Makers
Exports of chocolate to Europe have turned into a nightmare of paperwork and delays, making fine British chocolate scarce in Europe.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/03/busi ... &smtyp=cur

For the second year in a row, Easter will be a largely online affair, with socially distanced egg hunts and virtual church services. But there will be one notable difference here in the Britain. Domestic chocolate makers, who should be celebrating one of their busiest times of year, are fuming instead, and all of them cite the same cause: Brexit.

“We’ve lost our entire European trade,” said Aneesh Popat, the owner of The Chocolatier, which sells dark chocolate salted caramel water ganache Easter eggs and other treats out of Bedfordshire, about 50 miles north of London. “Worse than that, we’ve lost our reputation, because when we send pallets of chocolate to, say, Germany and it disappears or we can’t track it, our customers don’t blame the courier. They blame us.”

The trade deal struck late last year with the European Union spared Britain from a variety of tariffs that would have inflated the prices of goods that traveled to the mainland. It has not saved British companies from a maddening, unpredictable array of time-consuming, morale-sapping procedures and from stacks of paperwork that have turned exporting to the E.U. into a sort of black-box mystery.

Goods go in and there is no telling when they will come out. Or how much customs duties will cost the recipient. Or even where the goods will ultimately land.

[Volkonski]

Terrible that this is happening again in NI.

Northern Irish leaders set aside arguing to urge end to violence

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-brit ... SKBN2BV1XQ

Northern Ireland’s power-sharing government put aside factional differences on Thursday to appeal for calm after more than a week of nightly violence partly fuelled by frustration among pro-British unionists over post-Brexit trade barriers.

Hundreds of youths in the British province’s capital Belfast set a hijacked bus on fire and attacked police with stones on Wednesday in scenes reviving memories of decades of sectarian and political strife that claimed some 3,600 lives prior to a 1998 peace deal.

The latest violence has injured 55 police officers and seen boys as young as 13 and 14 arrested on rioting charges.

“We are gravely concerned by the scenes we have all witnessed on our streets,” said the compulsory coalition, led by rival pro-Irish Catholic nationalists and pro-British Protestant unionists.

Brexit isn't the only issue here. However it has been obvious for years that there is no way to have an open border between Ireland and Northern Ireland whilst at the same time having an open border between NI and the rest of the UK. With the UK out of the EU, customs and immigration has to be somewhere. To insist on what is impossible is folly. See-

[John Thomas8]

[Volkonski]

[Chilidog]

Northern Ireland’s power-sharing government put aside factional differences on Thursday to appeal for calm after more than a week of nightly violence partly fuelled by frustration among pro-British unionists over post-Brexit trade barriers.

Ironic, isn't it?

[noblepa]

Yesterday, I heard a story on my local NPR station, saying that Scotland is having another referendum on on independence.

They interviewed a few scots, who said that they voted "no" in the last referendum, a few years ago, in part because it was argued that the only way Scotland could stay in the EU was by remaining part of the UK. They said they feel betrayed, and are inclined to vote "yes" this time.

Some are arguing that Scotland should leave the UK and apply for admission to the EU on their own.

The problem, of course, is one shared by all small countries contemplating breaking away from their parent country; can they be financially self-sufficient without aid from London?

Another Scot who was interviewed, owns a small manufacturing business. He said he was "terrified" of an independent Scotland. He buys many of the parts and raw materials that go into his products, from England. If the referendum passes, he vows to move his company south, to England.

So, Brexit may be directly responsible for the breakup of the UK. Can Wales and Northern Ireland be far behind?

[Mr brolin]

There is much made of Scotland "making it's own way" by various "professional Scots" men and women who never actually have an answer as to just precisely who and what is going to pay for this wonderous idea.

Scotland (and NI and Wales) all receive copious amounts of largesse, particularly higher per capita, than the English do from central government This has allowed the various political beasties of the Scottish Nationalist Party to bribe the electorate with nice pretty shiny things. Scots don't pay for university education, the English do, Scots don't have prescription charges, the English do etc etc.

These nice things are paid for by the English tax payer and the Scots pay far less per capita into the system then they get out of it.

Much like all those "keep the gubmint outta my pocket" red state and red staters who are well, in the main......the main beneficiaries of federal money as opposed to blue states.

Scotland leaves the Union, no more of that lovely free money

Of course as a recipient of copious quantities of UK government debt backed largess over the years Scotland will start on that shiny new day with a pretty substantial, proportionate, Day 1 share of the UK debt....Which could be a bit of a problem as most of that is held at very low rates of interest (much like T-bills) on the assumption that the government on the piece of paper is going to honor its debts. Any hint that the new Bank of Nicola Sturgeon is going to have issues in servicing its debt will not be held in a positive light by the various global institutions holding the paper

Then there is the rather ignored issue that if Scotland wants to divorce itself from the UK as a whole, exactly what currency will they use..? Can't be GBP, can't be Euro and any new "Scottish New Groat" will have to show fiscal responsibility or it'll be a Iraqi Dinar or Zimbabwe Dollar situation, Remember currency has value only if that phrase "backed by the full faith and credit" is regarded as a statement of actuality not a wish and a prayer.

Ahh I hear, what about all that oil..... trouble is, Scotland doesn't ACTUALLY have a claim to much oil. either it's in depleted fields or its in fields owned by Norway, the UK etc.

Well.....They'll join the EU......

Ahhhh, EU has already stated that Scotland in such a circumstance is unlikely to succeed for some period of time, too much debt per GDP for a start plus

• There are other people in the queue
  Countries like Spain REALLY don't want any encouragement for THEIR separatist regions and
  The EU is in a REAL bind with the loss of the UK tax receipts and doesn't want any more countries joining with hands out stretched, thank you very much

Then there's that whole "frictionless border" issue, if Scotland is not a part of the UK and wants to be a part of the EU, what about the border arrangements, we've seen how well that's going in NI.

There is a lot of magical thinking and vigorous hand waving in the SNP and Scotland around "independence"

[Uninformed]

Although the ideas of an independent Scotland and a relatively easy entry to the EU come with more obviously detrimental consequences, similar considerations didn’t stop the UK voting for Brexit. Sovereignty! (or in Scottish, “FREEDOM!!!”).

[Mr brolin]

These are two vastly different things and other than...nations leaving a "Union".... have nothing in common.

The UK left the EU as it could stand outside (for good or bad) as it has a strong, diversified economy, its own currency, a strong and trusted central bank, a well established tax and revenue establishment, seats at all the necessary political, financial, economic, military and cultural tables and the UK is not trying to join another club.

Scotland has none of the above in its own right and wants to leave Daddy Warbucks and his generous and deep pockets for a large group marriage as the most junior member

The comparison is not even apples v oranges more kumquat v gorilla.

[noblepa]

These are two vastly different things and other than...nations leaving a "Union".... have nothing in common.

The UK left the EU as it could stand outside (for good or bad) as it has a strong, diversified economy, its own currency, a strong and trusted central bank, a well established tax and revenue establishment, seats at all the necessary political, financial, economic, military and cultural tables and the UK is not trying to join another club.

Scotland has none of the above in its own right and wants to leave Daddy Warbucks and his generous and deep pockets for a large group marriage as the most junior member

The comparison is not even apples v oranges more kumquat v gorilla.

I agree, it would be a huge mistake for Scotland to leave the UK. They would instantly become a third-world country. As you and others have pointed out, they are unlikely to be admitted to the EU on their own and they lack some of the essential financial establishments necessary for a country to thrive.

When Scotland became part of the UK, Great Britain was the most powerful nation on earth. As the saying goes, "The sun never set on the British Empire". For better or worse, Scotland benefitted from union with England. In the last couple of centuries, the UK evolved as a single nation. Some things, especially in the fiscal or financial realm, were managed on a national basis. Institutions based in London, such as the Bank of England, serviced the entire country. Scottish secession would leave them without those institutions. Setting them up from scratch would be extremely difficult.

Nevertheless, BREXIT, and the Scots' feeling of betrayal, seem to be fueling the Scottish independence movement. I think that it might just pass, this time.

[Foggy]

As for the border, they should build a wall, like our glorious preceding president did. Is Hadrian still around? I heard that dude can build a wall.

[Mr brolin]

Naaaaaaah isolation is the key when Scotland turns into the economic desolate wasteland ......

[RTH10260]

Michel Barnier on Brexit – in his own words
Key excerpts from the newly published diaries of the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator

Tory quarrels determined UK’s post-Brexit future, says Barnier

Jon Henley in Paris
Wed 5 May 2021 15.16 BST

Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, has released his long-awaited diaries. Here he is in his own words on some of Brexit’s key personalities and issues:


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... -own-words

retold in the words of a vlogger

[jcolvin2]

As for the border, they should build a wall, like our glorious preceding president did. Is Hadrian still around? I heard that dude can build a wall.

I think Hadrian went with the EU in the wake of Brexit.

[Reality Check]

There is much made of Scotland "making it's own way" by various "professional Scots" men and women who never actually have an answer as to just precisely who and what is going to pay for this wonderous idea.

Scotland (and NI and Wales) all receive copious amounts of largesse, particularly higher per capita, than the English do from central government This has allowed the various political beasties of the Scottish Nationalist Party to bribe the electorate with nice pretty shiny things. Scots don't pay for university education, the English do, Scots don't have prescription charges, the English do etc etc.

That is a very enlightening analysis on the Scottish independence question. My wife has been to Scotland 4 times over the years. Her parents lived there for several years while she was in college so she spent the summer there after she graduated. She loves the country.

I feel sorry for them being dragged out of the EU by the rest of the UK. Boris Johnson is more dangerous than Trump in some ways. He is just as evil but more politically savvy. Obviously a deranged leader of the USA could do more damage internationally than the PM of the UK but locally Johnson and the Brexiteers are toxic. Scotland is between a rock and a hard place. I suppose the best course would be to hold on and hope the UK in the future figures out Brexit was a really bad idea.

[Mr brolin]

There is much made of Scotland "making it's own way" by various "professional Scots" men and women who never actually have an answer as to just precisely who and what is going to pay for this wonderous idea.

Scotland (and NI and Wales) all receive copious amounts of largesse, particularly higher per capita, than the English do from central government This has allowed the various political beasties of the Scottish Nationalist Party to bribe the electorate with nice pretty shiny things. Scots don't pay for university education, the English do, Scots don't have prescription charges, the English do etc etc.

That is a very enlightening analysis on the Scottish independence question. My wife has been to Scotland 4 times over the years. Her parents lived there for several years while she was in college so she spent the summer there after she graduated. She loves the country.

I feel sorry for them being dragged out of the EU by the rest of the UK. Boris Johnson is more dangerous than Trump in some ways. He is just as evil but more politically savvy. Obviously a deranged leader of the USA could do more damage internationally than the PM of the UK but locally Johnson and the Brexiteers are toxic. Scotland is between a rock and a hard place. I suppose the best course would be to hold on and hope the UK in the future figures out Brexit was a really bad idea.

Thank you for the thoughts, my above barely scratches the truly dismal issues and prospects the Scots will end up with, the dry arcana of economics can be a little.....well.....dry....

As an example, proportion of UK debt to be assumed by Scotland.

The problem is, this debt is fundamentally all in "gilts" equivalent of T-bills, denominated in GBP, fixed very low interest rates and as with most Tier 1 countries, the dirty little secret is that the issuing country is usually the owner of the largest portion of the debt......

For example in the USA, depending on how you slice it, the federal government via Social Security, the Federal Reserve and other federal institutions hold around 40%-42% of US debt. Less so in the UK where it is about 23%-25% BUT about 46%-47% is held by UK based and regulated financial institutions, pension funds etc that NEED to keep this stuff AND in stable, trustworthy instruments. No freshly created, no track record "Trust us we'll pay you back your stuff sometimes, maybe..." so.... not Scottish New Bills.

Scotland goes "independent" then there is this large chunk of debt they owe. Problem is this debt needs to be transferred off the UK books to the Scottish books, into a non existent currency held and issued by a non existent central bank backed up by....? Denominated still in pounds...at what exchange rate..? Will the UK government out of the goodness of its heart hold the Scottish debt and guarantee its surety to the world..?

Assuming the byzantine rules and regulations around inter/intra government debt are satisfied and a new blob of Scottish Groat backed debt is created....Unless the interest rates are set extortionately high, who is going to want to buy the debt off the British government, transferred. to a new and unknown currency in a new and unknown (as in a new financial player) country...?

If these new instruments ARE created and someone buys them....how are the new Scottish government going to service them, you know....pay back the debt on maturity and the interest through the life of the debt..? Taxation....Inflation....sell more debt....?

As I mentioned earlier, lots of magical thinking and hand waving going on here

[fierceredpanda]

There is much made of Scotland "making it's own way" by various "professional Scots" men and women who never actually have an answer as to just precisely who and what is going to pay for this wonderous idea.

Scotland (and NI and Wales) all receive copious amounts of largesse, particularly higher per capita, than the English do from central government This has allowed the various political beasties of the Scottish Nationalist Party to bribe the electorate with nice pretty shiny things. Scots don't pay for university education, the English do, Scots don't have prescription charges, the English do etc etc.

That is a very enlightening analysis on the Scottish independence question. My wife has been to Scotland 4 times over the years. Her parents lived there for several years while she was in college so she spent the summer there after she graduated. She loves the country.

I feel sorry for them being dragged out of the EU by the rest of the UK. Boris Johnson is more dangerous than Trump in some ways. He is just as evil but more politically savvy. Obviously a deranged leader of the USA could do more damage internationally than the PM of the UK but locally Johnson and the Brexiteers are toxic. Scotland is between a rock and a hard place. I suppose the best course would be to hold on and hope the UK in the future figures out Brexit was a really bad idea.

Thank you for the thoughts, my above barely scratches the truly dismal issues and prospects the Scots will end up with, the dry arcana of economics can be a little.....well.....dry....

As an example, proportion of UK debt to be assumed by Scotland.

The problem is, this debt is fundamentally all in "gilts" equivalent of T-bills, denominated in GBP, fixed very low interest rates and as with most Tier 1 countries, the dirty little secret is that the issuing country is usually the owner of the largest portion of the debt......

For example in the USA, depending on how you slice it, the federal government via Social Security, the Federal Reserve and other federal institutions hold around 40%-42% of US debt. Less so in the UK where it is about 23%-25% BUT about 46%-47% is held by UK based and regulated financial institutions, pension funds etc that NEED to keep this stuff AND in stable, trustworthy instruments. No freshly created, no track record "Trust us we'll pay you back your stuff sometimes, maybe..." so.... not Scottish New Bills.

Scotland goes "independent" then there is this large chunk of debt they owe. Problem is this debt needs to be transferred off the UK books to the Scottish books, into a non existent currency held and issued by a non existent central bank backed up by....? Denominated still in pounds...at what exchange rate..? Will the UK government out of the goodness of its heart hold the Scottish debt and guarantee its surety to the world..?

Assuming the byzantine rules and regulations around inter/intra government debt are satisfied and a new blob of Scottish Groat backed debt is created....Unless the interest rates are set extortionately high, who is going to want to buy the debt off the British government, transferred. to a new and unknown currency in a new and unknown (as in a new financial player) country...?

If these new instruments ARE created and someone buys them....how are the new Scottish government going to service them, you know....pay back the debt on maturity and the interest through the life of the debt..? Taxation....Inflation....sell more debt....?

As I mentioned earlier, lots of magical thinking and hand waving going on here

The financial problems you describe are basically the same ones faced by every post-colonial nation that has ever existed. Including, oh, I don't know, the United States. I'm not saying they are easily solved. I am saying the suggestion that they represent an insurmountable barrier to independence is not true. Really, what are the Scots supposed to do? Just continue on as a regional political minority whose economic interests are constantly undermined by the parliament in Westminster that is hellbent on advancing policies of "Little England"? Particularly now that the SNP has more or less destroyed the Scottish faction of the Labour Party, I see exactly zero chance that the Tories are ousted from power in the next decade. The Tory base doesn't give a shit about Scotland and thinks Brexit is going just fine. So I'll ask again: What are the Scots supposed to do? If the answer is "remain a politically-dispossessed and powerless permanent second-class vassal state of England forever," I would suggest that history tells us such a state of affairs is, by definition, unstable.

Also, the optimists here thinking that the EU will ever in a million years let the UK back into the fold (assuming the British political class and electorate ever acknowledge that Brexit was a mistake, which is a possibility so remote that I reject it out-of-hand) is utterly ludicrous. The EU means nothing as an entity if members can just come and go as they please.

[noblepa]

Also, the optimists here thinking that the EU will ever in a million years let the UK back into the fold (assuming the British political class and electorate ever acknowledge that Brexit was a mistake, which is a possibility so remote that I reject it out-of-hand) is utterly ludicrous. The EU means nothing as an entity if members can just come and go as they please.

I'm not so sure that the EU would never re-admit the UK.

If the UK were to request re-admission, the EU might accept them as an object lesson to other countries that might be considering leaving.

Things would have to get pretty bad in the UK for them to request re-admission. I'm not sure that it is going to be quite as bad as the anti-Brexit crowd has predicted, but then, I'm no economist.

The EU would probably demand a lot of draconian concessions from the UK, maybe even accepting the Euro as their currency.

A world-wide depression might do it.

I agree that I don't think re-admission is going to happen, but I wouldn't rate the chances quite as low as you do.