Election 2022: Democrats Are Going To Win Again

[pipistrelle]

[Ben-Prime]

Or upside down, for distress.

[Gregg]

How do you fly a '78 Trans Am on cinder blocks at half mast?

[Ben-Prime]

How do you fly a '78 Trans Am on cinder blocks at half mast?

See, the Trans Am makes it tricky. If it's a 68 Dodge Charger, you paint the Confederate stripes on the roof and turn the General Lee on its side.

[Dr. Ken]

[Mr brolin]

An interesting snippet of House numbers.

Even with the years of systematic gerrymandering that has gone on with redistricting, with a popular vote breakdown of

R 52,585,430 51.2%
D 48,219,838 46.9%

The Republicans STILL only look like getting a wafer thin minority..... sucks for them

[Dr. Ken]

[AndyinPA]

[pipistrelle]

“We’re gonna continue to serve the community, I don’t care what these woke politicians want to do. But hopefully one day they're not going to be in office anymore,” Villanueva told Fox News in February.

Who's not in office anymore, hmmm?

[Dr. Ken]

[Dr. Ken]

[bob]

Patty Murray re-elected.

Call and raise: FOX: Schumer skips over Feinstein, 89, for Senate president pro tem, third in presidential line of succession:

Current Senate pro tem Patrick Leahy retiring at end of year

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told Democrats on Wednesday that he won't nominate Sen. Dianne Feinstein, 89, to be the Senate president pro tempore in the next Congress amid ongoing of speculation about her mental acuity.

A source familiar with the caucus discussion told Fox News on Tuesday that Schumer, D-N.Y., will instead pick Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., for the job.

The Senate president pro tempore is a position laid out by the Constitution to chair the Senate when the vice president is not present. It's a largely powerless office as Senate party leaders control legislative traffic on the floor.

The Presidential Succession Act, however, makes the president pro tempore third in the line of succession if the president of the United States dies, following the vice president and House speaker.

Murray, 72, has two fewer months of seniority than Feinstein.

[New Turtle]

I guess they are wanting Schiff to run for her seat.

[bob]

I guess they are wanting Schiff to run for her seat.

Or be appointed to it if Feinstein retires. (And then run to fill the remainder of her term, and then stand for election for the full term in 2024.)

[AndyinPA]

Good choice. Feinstein should have already retired. Schiff will be a great addition to the Senate. But will be missed in the House.

[Foggy]

... amid ongoing of speculation about her mental acuity.

I am speculating about the mental acuity of whoever wrote that sentence.

How did the word "of" sneak in there?

[bob]

538: The Midterms Made State Governments Bluer:

For the first time in years, more Americans will live in a state fully controlled by Democrats than in one fully controlled by Republicans. Thanks to their wins in gubernatorial or state-legislative elections, Democrats took complete control of three new state governments in the 2022 elections: Michigan, Minnesota and Vermont. They broke the GOP monopoly on power in Arizona and, potentially, New Hampshire. They also kept full control of state government in four of the five states where they were in danger of losing it. And they prevented Republicans from taking full control of North Carolina, Wisconsin and maybe even Alaska.

[Ben-Prime]

538: The Midterms Made State Governments Bluer:

For the first time in years, more Americans will live in a state fully controlled by Democrats than in one fully controlled by Republicans. Thanks to their wins in gubernatorial or state-legislative elections, Democrats took complete control of three new state governments in the 2022 elections: Michigan, Minnesota and Vermont. They broke the GOP monopoly on power in Arizona and, potentially, New Hampshire. They also kept full control of state government in four of the five states where they were in danger of losing it. And they prevented Republicans from taking full control of North Carolina, Wisconsin and maybe even Alaska.

Just checking, are we still okay with Nate Silver's team's postdictions?

[AndyinPA]

The Democrats just control of the House in PA after 12 years.

[Jim]

The Democrats just control of the House in PA after 12 years.

Too bad that with the dems gaining control of state legislatures and governorships they won't try to pull a Tom Delay and redistrict dem majorities for 2024.

[Phoenix520]

I worked on California’s 1980 map with a Dem controlled legislature. David Roberti was in charge. He would come down sometimes and spend a day working with us, and a few times one of us went to Sacramento to meet with him.

He told us about all the pols on both sides who sent him requests about boundaries but he rejected them all - except his own He extended a boundary three blocks so his moms could vote for him.

Jim’s right, darn it.

[Slarti the White]

538: The Midterms Made State Governments Bluer:

For the first time in years, more Americans will live in a state fully controlled by Democrats than in one fully controlled by Republicans. Thanks to their wins in gubernatorial or state-legislative elections, Democrats took complete control of three new state governments in the 2022 elections: Michigan, Minnesota and Vermont. They broke the GOP monopoly on power in Arizona and, potentially, New Hampshire. They also kept full control of state government in four of the five states where they were in danger of losing it. And they prevented Republicans from taking full control of North Carolina, Wisconsin and maybe even Alaska.

Just checking, are we still okay with Nate Silver's team's postdictions?

There's a thread on Is Political Polling Meaningful Anymore?. As for me on the question of Nate's postdictions... I find it disingenuous to avoid mentioning how unlikely the actual outcome was given their forecast and not giving a complete analysis of the difference between their final projections and the actual vote margins. It's almost as if they don't want to verify the accuracy of their methodology, they just want to keep doing the same thing as long as they can get page clicks and advertising revenue.

[bob]

It's almost as if they don't want to verify the accuracy of their methodology, they just want to keep doing the same thing as long as they can get page clicks and advertising revenue.

Cf. 538: How A Data Processing Error Changed Our Deluxe Forecast.

[Slarti the White]

It's almost as if they don't want to verify the accuracy of their methodology, they just want to keep doing the same thing as long as they can get page clicks and advertising revenue.

Cf. 538: How A Data Processing Error Changed Our Deluxe Forecast.

Rikker thanks you for the link!

Reading the 538 article, it only addresses a technical error they made that would have made (relatively) small changes in their deluxe forecast. It says nothing about methodological reasons why their forecast might have been off, nor does it have any information regarding what the actual results of the effected races were (save one mentioned in the text). They do mention that the error was found when they were reviewing their results (internally), which means that they are obviously capable of giving themselves a scorecard (as they do for individual pollsters), but choose not to do so transparently.

I've quite often been a Nate Silver fanboy -- not to mention the fact that he's from my hometown -- but I'm not going to be a Nate Silver apologist. I believe that there are serious structural problems in the polling industry. I may be wrong, but the fact that 538 doesn't address the possibility head on does not speak well for them.

[Tiredretiredlawyer]