Redistricting

[Volkonski]

Fernand R. Amandi
@AmandiOnAir
Florida is poised to gain 2 House seats in redistricting. Current map has 16 GOP + 11 Dems, but w/a state Supreme Court that has turned hard right,
@Redistrict
thinks
@GOP
could attempt a 21 GOP to 8 Dems gerrymander —which would cost
@HouseDemocrats
almost their entire majority.

[Luke]

This is going to be a nightmare. We need HR1/S1.

Both parties went into the election with a chance to draw more congressional districts than the other, but the end result was just about the best-case scenario for Republicans … Republicans are set to control the redistricting of 188 congressional seats — or 43 percent of the entire House of Representatives. By contrast, Democrats will control the redistricting of, at most, 73 seats, or 17 percent.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/11 ... aster.html

Not worrying about it today with the pandemic relief package passing... today it's root beer and ice cream with Lt. Root Beer!

[Volkonski]

Dave Wasserman
@Redistrict
·
22m
BREAKING: new Census apportionment counts...

TX +2
FL +1
CO, MT, NC, OR +1

CA, IL, MI, NY, OH, PA, WV -1

[fierceredpanda]

California Dems had better use this opportunity to screw Devin Nunes and/or Kevin McCarthy in redistricting.

[Jim]

California Dems had better use this opportunity to screw Devin Nunes and/or Kevin McCarthy in redistricting.

Isn't their redistricting from 10 years ago what gave us Nunes and McCarthy?

[Frater I*I]

California Dems had better use this opportunity to screw Devin Nunes and/or Kevin McCarthy in redistricting.

Screw a "Gerrymander", they need to make their districts look like a Hydra snaking out from every major population center...

[bob]

NPR (in its way) called this a win for Republicans.

If this map is applied to the 2020 map, Biden would have three fewer electoral votes.

But the real prize is the House: Republican legislators have a 2-to-1 trifecta margin (absolute control over redistricting) over House seats.

[zekeb]

Bear in mind that the more populous an area becomes, the more it tends to drift Dem. This may not benefit the Repubs in the long run.

[Frater I*I]

Bear in mind that the more populous an area becomes, the more it tends to drift Dem. This may not benefit the Repubs in the long run.

Problem is, that rural areas aren't growing, and that makes up most districts here in the south. As the pop lowers it favors the GQP, because those left believe the propaganda that libs look down upon them, ect, etc, ect...

Here, GA-1 is a prime example, it contains Savannah, a Dem stronghold, yet the rest of the district contains all of southeast GA rural counties, the Rep is Buddy Carter.

As a supporter of Zee Furher, he's fully inline with the current GQP, including singing on to the TX v PA SCOTUS suit to overturn the election, he's been there since 04.

[sterngard friegen]

California has a non political commission for redistricting.

[bob]

California has a non political commission for redistricting.

True. And it drew the current maps based on the 2010 census.

But, in fairness to the criticism, McCarthy used to represent CA-22, which leaned Republican. He's now in CA-23, which is heavily Republican. (Nunes similarly shifted from CA-21 to CA-22.)

[MN-Skeptic]

It would be interesting to know what the census numbers would have been if 1) we hadn’t been in the middle of a pandemic, and 2) if the former guy hadn’t been president.

[Lani]

Hopefully, the Census count will be challenged in court. It was mishandled and cut short. I don't believe any data from the 2020 Census.

It was my third time as a census worker and I was excited to do it. The supervisor came from nowhere and didn't know shit. New workers called me and other experienced workers for help. Our iPhones were connected to a company that had limited and sporadic coverage on our island. One night I spent over 2 hours driving around trying to find a connection and submit my time sheet. Then I was scolded for submitting my time late. As you probably know, I've not been healthy since 3/20, but I figured that I could do a couple of evenings and a few hours on the weekend. I'm really good with getting reluctant people to speak with me. But all info had to be entered on the phone, and once I got people to cooperate, the damn phone would lose connection. I think I could have continued for awhile if the phone problem was resolved, but the extra time (unpaid) involved with the stupid phone wore me out and did me in.

And then the phone totally crashed. I finally reached a higher up census person about all the problems. Lots of people were struggling like I was. It was acknowledged that the carrier was a problem and that my phone and many other phones were defective. I'm glad I was heard, but I resigned. I continued to help the workers who called me and made new friends, most of whom also eventually gave up because of the problems. Total mess. I doubt my experience was just local. Even the website for census workers was effed up as well.

[fierceredpanda]

California has a non political commission for redistricting.

This is the problem. A lot of deep blue states, in the name of fairness, have non-partisan commissions that handle redistricting. No deep red states of which I am aware can say the same. And you've got states like mine (Wisconsin) where the Republican-controlled legislature basically sees the decennial census as their periodic opportunity to screw Democrats even more.

[sterngard friegen]

California has a non political commission for redistricting.

This is the problem. A lot of deep blue states, in the name of fairness, have non-partisan commissions that handle redistricting. No deep red states of which I am aware can say the same. And you've got states like mine (Wisconsin) where the Republican-controlled legislature basically sees the decennial census as their periodic opportunity to screw Democrats even more.

California used to be a red state. Remember Ronald what's his name? Then we got Prop. 187 from Pete Wilson and a non political commission for redistricting.

[fierceredpanda]

California has a non political commission for redistricting.

This is the problem. A lot of deep blue states, in the name of fairness, have non-partisan commissions that handle redistricting. No deep red states of which I am aware can say the same. And you've got states like mine (Wisconsin) where the Republican-controlled legislature basically sees the decennial census as their periodic opportunity to screw Democrats even more.

California used to be a red state. Remember Ronald what's his name? Then we got Prop. 187 from Pete Wilson and a non political commission for redistricting.

Yes, I know Reagan and Nixon both came from CA. I was talking about the present state of affairs.

[bill_g]

I want gerrymandering gone. I think districts should be drawn by computers, and they should resemble a polygon, not an octopus. I would allow exceptions for natural features like rivers, and man-made boundaries like state lines, county lines, and city limits. I would not allow cherry stems or serpentines.

In my model, districts would start as circles that get whittled in the overlaps.

(sigh)

[Phoenix520]

This is the issue Obama and Holder (?) have been working on since 2016. Gonna have to do some reading now that Orange Adolph isn’t demanding every second of our attention with his wicked shenanigans.

[AndyinPA]

I agree with Lani. I really don't trust the results of this census.

[Clairez]

I want gerrymandering gone. I think districts should be drawn by computers, and they should resemble a polygon, not an octopus. I would allow exceptions for natural features like rivers, and man-made boundaries like state lines, county lines, and city limits. I would not allow cherry stems or serpentines.

In my model, districts would start as circles that get whittled in the overlaps.

(sigh)

This is what is the fairest. No strange shapes. No including or excluding certain areas due to certain income or other demographics.

[fierceredpanda]

Avoiding strange shapes is no guarantor of equity in redistricting. The entire problem is that people are not evenly distributed, and Democrats especially tend to cluster in large urban areas that are geographically small. This is our entire problem in Wisconsin, which is politically competitive statewide and yet hopelessly gerrymandered at the level of our state legislature. There's no fixing that problem just by prohibiting strange shapes. In fact, it would likely exacerbate the disadvantage for Democrats in my state.

[bill_g]

Avoiding strange shapes is no guarantor of equity in redistricting. The entire problem is that people are not evenly distributed, and Democrats especially tend to cluster in large urban areas that are geographically small. This is our entire problem in Wisconsin, which is politically competitive statewide and yet hopelessly gerrymandered at the level of our state legislature. There's no fixing that problem just by prohibiting strange shapes. In fact, it would likely exacerbate the disadvantage for Democrats in my state.

I would argue "let the chips fall where they may" if gerrymandering were replaced by polygons that only consider population counts, natural features, legal boundaries, and perhaps highways (because they often bisect communities). Randomization should resemble purple with few distinct red or blue districts.

I would at least want someone to model it to prove whether I am right, or you are.

[bill_g]

A 2014 WaPo article on this very subject. This programmer created what he called optimally compact districts based on Census blocks.

I like the shapes. What is missing from the experiment is what the ultimate political ramifications would be. It's missing the party affiliation data as well as ethnic and income data. If we could fill that in, then we would know if this is better than current method.

[northland10]

Of course, the party in control drawing maps only applies when it is the GOP in control.

GOP Leaders Sue to Block Democrat-Drawn Legislative Maps

Illinois Republican leaders filed a federal lawsuit Wednesday challenging new legislative district boundaries that were drawn and approved by Democrats who control state government, saying residents were “robbed” of a fair and transparent process for creating maps that will be used for elections over the next decade.

Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker signed legislation last week establishing the new maps, despite pledging as a candidate that he would veto any maps drawn by politicians. Pritzker said the new maps help ensure minority representation and align with the federal and state Voting Rights Acts.

Republicans and other critics have objected throughout the map-making process, saying Democrats drew the boundaries behind closed doors and using flawed data. Democrats used population estimates from the American Community Survey rather than U.S. Census Bureau data, which is delayed due to the coronavirus pandemic.

I can't speak for whether the Survey or the Bureau data is better but I don't recall that being a concern for the GOP previously. They were more concerned on political affiliation.

Full disclosure.. I am quite over-political redistricting and would rather it be a bipartisan commission. However, after watching the GOP go hog wild with gerrymandering, I find their reaction here to be disingenuous to the extreme.

[Luke]

Breaking Census News:


Eric McGhee @hezaproject No 2020 ACS this year!!! Response rates plunged to 71% and @uscensusbureau not confident in the data. They'll release "experimental" products in Nov with heavy weights to adjust





ACS Report: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-k ... -year.html


Don't know about the consequences yet.