Russia Invades Ukraine

[tek]

What we need here is Col. Hogan's analysis

[Gregg]

What we need here is Col. Hogan's analysis

Oh, I can tell you exactly how it happened...

[MN-Skeptic]

I follow retired Lieutenant General Mark Hertling - @MarkHertling - on Twitter and I like reading his insights. Hertling points out that the massive bombing today of Ukraine has targeted civilian sites and has done virtually nothing to reduce Ukraine's current military strength. Here's a link to his latest thread with his thoughts the feasibility of increasing air defense. His thread got broken, so here are links to both pieces -

[Volkonski]

[keith]

I kind of disagree tat there are no benefits to Putin. Ya its a source of Putin national pride, but it actually benefits him in trying to escalate the threat of the Ukraine war to ordinary Russians. Its showing that Ukraine is attacking inside the Motherland itself so be a patriot and go sign up for the army, red blooded Russian youth! ONWARD IN REVENGE FOR THE BRIDGE!!

Really its the fact that Putin is trying to get soldiers and is trying to escalate this that leave open the possibility to me that he has done this himself. I really haven't a clue if he did it or not. But to say there is no advantage to Putin and all disadvantages in a scenario where he is trying to get things going on another level is wrong, in my view.

I'd kind of doubt that it was Putin's idea, even if we are going with the false flag idea.

IMHO, it's much more likely that it's the General Whatshisnameovich - the one that flattened Iraqi cities in the name of 'saving them' and who was in charge in the 'southern front' and is now in charge of the whole shooting match. His scorched earth strategy is now on full display in Kyev, Lvov, and elsewhere.

[Gregg]

If they were gonna do a false flag to rile up the rubes, Id be betting on a children's hospital.

[Dave from down under]

I'd kind of doubt that it was Putin's idea, even if we are going with the false flag idea.

IMHO, it's much more likely that it's the General Whatshisnameovich - the one that flattened Iraqi cities in the name of 'saving them' and who was in charge in the 'southern front' and is now in charge of the whole shooting match. His scorched earth strategy is now on full display in Kyev, Lvov, and elsewhere.

From:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-11/ ... /101517940

“The Russians tried to fix this situation in April with the appointment of Aleksandr Dvornikov, a brutal leader and veteran of the Russian campaign in Syria. But Dvornikov struggled in the bitter, attritional fight that was the Donbas.

Even with an overwhelming advantage in artillery, he was only able to wrangle a pyrrhic victory with the capture of Severodonetsk. Thousands of Russians were killed during the battle, and Dvornikov was replaced shortly afterwards.

The chief spokesman for the Russian ministry of defence subsequently announced that Russian troops were to be divided between the "Army Groups Center", commanded by Colonel General Aleksander Lapin, and "South", commanded by Army General Sergei Surovikin.

The series of reverses suffered by the Russians in both these areas over the past two months has obviously convinced the Kremlin to again try a single overall commander in Surovikin.“

[Sam the Centipede]

The longer the war continues, the deeper the economic hurt to Russia. There the obvious cost in materiel and the economic impact of sanctions, but they are losing young men at quite a rate. These are the productive members of a functioning economy and they're holding that out.

Plus the extra support for families which have lost their breadwinner.

Even ignoring the human and economic cost (which the Russian leaders seen happy to do), sending young men to be slaughtered at the front line after a few days (I think life expectancy is only a week or two, at most) hardly helps their war effort.

[keith]

I'd kind of doubt that it was Putin's idea, even if we are going with the false flag idea.

IMHO, it's much more likely that it's the General Whatshisnameovich - the one that flattened Iraqi cities in the name of 'saving them' and who was in charge in the 'southern front' and is now in charge of the whole shooting match. His scorched earth strategy is now on full display in Kyev, Lvov, and elsewhere.

From:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-11/ ... /101517940

“The Russians tried to fix this situation in April with the appointment of Aleksandr Dvornikov, a brutal leader and veteran of the Russian campaign in Syria. But Dvornikov struggled in the bitter, attritional fight that was the Donbas.

Even with an overwhelming advantage in artillery, he was only able to wrangle a pyrrhic victory with the capture of Severodonetsk. Thousands of Russians were killed during the battle, and Dvornikov was replaced shortly afterwards.

The chief spokesman for the Russian ministry of defence subsequently announced that Russian troops were to be divided between the "Army Groups Center", commanded by Colonel General Aleksander Lapin, and "South", commanded by Army General Sergei Surovikin.

The series of reverses suffered by the Russians in both these areas over the past two months has obviously convinced the Kremlin to again try a single overall commander in Surovikin.“

Thanks for the correction.

[Dave from down under]

No worries

But the butcher may have been an instigator or target of an internal manoeuvre that involved the bridge if it was a false flag.

[Volkonski]

[RTH10260]

The longer the war continues, the deeper the economic hurt to Russia. There the obvious cost in materiel and the economic impact of sanctions, but they are losing young men at quite a rate. These are the productive members of a functioning economy and they're holding that out.

Plus the extra support for families which have lost their breadwinner.

Even ignoring the human and economic cost (which the Russian leaders seen happy to do), sending young men to be slaughtered at the front line after a few days (I think life expectancy is only a week or two, at most) hardly helps their war effort.

IMHO the military thought they would have the Ukraine under control by autumn. Obviously they had not planned for a winter campaign. This lets me wonder to what extent they will make a retreat later in the year once the frost sets in and the first snow falls. They are in no shape to replace armoury during the winter months. As we are already late in the year the new involountary conscripts will be put thru basic boot camp training and then get further training. It's a mechanised war, the army does not need just cannon fodder. I expect these troops to be prepared for a late winter and early spring offensive in 2023.

[Sam the Centipede]

Russia expected to walk into Kyiv and just kick out the current government to the applause of the population ‒ like a bunch of complete fuckwits they believed their own propaganda! So definitely they hadn't planned for this length of campaign.

Winter has historically been the Russian army's friend ‒ but that's been when resisting an aggressor (France, Germany, etc.), not when they have been attacking. Russia soldiers will be at a massive disadvantage during this winter because they are badly equipped, they will have little or no winter clothing and equipment, they are badly fed so they will be sick, morale is bad and will get worse, supply lines are long, slow and unreliable, and their battlefield weapons are crap. Whereas the Ukrainians are well-equipped and in good spirit, with well-function supply lines.

So Russia would undoubtedly prefer a lull so they can regroup and, as you say, launch a spring offensive. But the Ukrainians are not stupid, they will have worked that out and much, much more, so I expect Ukraine will continue to harry Russian formations and disrupt the fascists' rearming.

So the Russian fascist contingent will continue with its attempts at genocide via attacks on civilian targets, thinking this will force Ukraine to capitulate. Whereas it will actually just reinforce Ukraine and its neighbors' desire never to have Russian jackboots goose-stepping over their terrain. And disgust other less-involved countries.

A significant number of countries distant from Russia, such as those in Africa and South America, have taken the view that this is not their problem, which I understand and accept - they have had European powers trampling over their countries, exploiting their resources and slaughtering their population, they now take the view that non-neighbors should not generally get involved. But those non-aligned countries might adjust their views as Russia's appalling behavior is more obvious and western diplomats cajole and encourage them to take a stance.

I think Russia's only real hope is that its population rebel and force some sanity into government, preferably by killing the assholes at the top, the appropriate fate for murderous dictators.

[Dave from down under]

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-10-13/ ... /101530084

The United Nations General Assembly has overwhelmingly condemned Russia's "attempted illegal annexation" of four partially occupied regions in Ukraine, as Kyiv's allies announced the delivery of new military aid to the country.

Three-quarters of the 193-member General Assembly — 143 countries — voted in favour of a resolution that also reaffirmed the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognised borders.

"It's amazing," Ukraine's UN Ambassador Sergiy Kyslytsya told reporters after the vote as he stood next to US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield, who said the result showed Russia could not intimidate the world.

Only four countries joined Russia in voting against the resolution — Syria, Nicaragua, North Korea and Belarus.

Thirty-five countries abstained from the vote, including Russia's strategic partner China, while the rest did not vote.

"Today it is Russia invading Ukraine. But tomorrow it could be another nation whose territory is violated. It could be you. You could be next. What would you expect from this chamber?" Ms Thomas-Greenfield told the General Assembly before the vote.

[John Thomas8]

[Kendra]

Nice interview with Jim Acosta and Mark Hamill about his work with Ukraine and working to get them more drones. Bonus points, Acosta is a big Star Wars fan and we got more chatter with Hamill on that. I think from what I took from the interview, Zelenski approached Hamill to be an ambassador of sorts to spread the word and raise the funds/drones so badly needed.

[Suranis]

Just heard on France News 24 that Putin has declared Martial Law in the Ukrainian Provences it annexed 2 weeks ago. And one of the generals said the situation on the ground is "very difficult."

[noblepa]

Just heard on France News 24 that Putin has declared Martial Law in the Ukrainian Provences it annexed 2 weeks ago. And one of the generals said the situation on the ground is "very difficult."

https://www.cnn.com/europe/live-news/ru ... ea123ec739

[Volkonski]

Doesn't sound like those 4 regions want to be part of Russia.

[noblepa]

Doesn't sound like those 4 regions want to be part of Russia.

But, but, but . . . They VOTED to become part of Mother Russia!!!

[jcolvin2]

But, but, but . . . They VOTED to become part of Mother Russia!!!

It is now clear to the former Soviet States that there is no Mother Russia, only Evil Stepmother Russia!

[Flatpoint High]

FfZJIWNWYAEInEf.jpeg (31.02 KiB) Viewed 543 times

[Kriselda Gray]

[Slim Cognito]

Ima steal that.

[MN-Skeptic]

Oops…