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Project FogWIN - Let's Win Senate #Midterms2022 Swing States!

Trying to make sense of a crazy world, with limited success mostly
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Luke
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Project FogWIN - Let's Win Senate #Midterms2022 Swing States!

#1

Post by Luke »

Fogbow has members all over the country, including Senate swing states.

Here's the idea: If you're in a swing state (we're in Florida), here's a topic to ask for help (virtual phone banking, social media posting, etc) with your state's election. Post your state and let us know the latest (reports are always so much better and more accurate from "on the ground"). Looks like Democratic candidates are way ahead on fundraising, but the GOP has deep pockets... the $1.6 Billion dollar donation "from industrialist Barre Seid to fund a new group run by Federalist Society co-chair Leonard Leo, who guided Trump’s Supreme Court picks and helped end federal abortion rights" https://www.propublica.org/article/dark ... barre-seid is a huge potential landmine for many cycles.

So if you're so inclined, please let everybody know your state and how the Senate race is looking. I know we have topics on many of the individual races... this is more about helping each other's states with action and general overviews from BOTG.
These 7 states will decide control of the Senate
Republicans only need to net one seat to win control of the Senate. These are the swing states each party is targeting.
By POLITICO STAFF 05/17/2022 04:31 AM EDT

Democratic target: Pennsylvania
Forecast: Toss-up

This is Democrats’ best pickup opportunity in their fight to hold on to the chamber. GOP Sen. Pat Toomey is retiring, subjecting Republicans to a messy primary as they survey the Senate landscape.

Democratic target: North Carolina
Forecast: Leans Republican

A protracted GOP primary to replace retiring Sen. Richard Burr could set the stage for a competitive general election. After struggling for months, Donald Trump’s pick Ted Budd built a commanding advantage over the final months of the primary — ending speculation that the former president badly miscalculated by endorsing the little-known House member. On the Democratic side, former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley has cleared the primary field. But Democrats haven’t won a presidential or Senate election in North Carolina since 2008.

Republican target: Georgia
Forecast: Toss-up

Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker are on a November collision course in the most closely divided state of the 2020 presidential election. Trump recruited Walker, a former football star, to run against Warnock after the Democrats’ victory in a special election. Both men have been outstanding fundraisers, which will help their messages break through in a state that also features one of the most competitive governor’s races this year.

Republican target: Nevada
Forecast: Toss-up

Despite Democrats’ winning streak in Nevada (Republicans haven’t won a presidential election here since 2004 or a Senate race since 2012), the political environment for Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto is brutal. An April poll from Suffolk University and the Reno Gazette Journal showed her losing to both GOP challengers. The GOP frontrunner is former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt, who’s been endorsed by both Trump and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. But Laxalt faces a spirited primary challenge from Sam Brown, a West Point grad and Army veteran who was severely injured in Afghanistan in 2008. What happens here in Nevada — a state that voted overwhelmingly in 1990 to codify Roe v. Wade — could also show whether Democrats can effectively channel the presumed demise of Roe into a turnaround win this November.

Republican target: Arizona
Forecast: Toss-up

The GOP field is packed with candidates who will face off in the primary to take on Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly — one of the most vulnerable senators up for reelection this year — in a closely divided state. State Attorney General Mark Brnovich was the GOP frontrunner for nearly a year, but he lost his lead as he struggled to articulate a clear position on the 2020 election. He’s been surpassed by wealthy solar power executive Jim Lamon, a self-funder who has spent $3.8 million on TV advertisements. Meanwhile, Trump and Sen. Josh Hawley have both shown interest in Blake Masters, tech billionaire Peter Thiel’s former de facto chief of staff.

Democratic target: Wisconsin
Forecast: Toss-up

GOP Sen. Ron Johnson announced he’ll seek a third term this year, giving Republicans a proven — if controversial — incumbent. Johnson has become the face of Covid-19 and election conspiracy theories in the Senate. He’s said that gargling mouthwash can kill Covid, Jan. 6 was a mostly “peaceful protest” and unvaccinated people around the world are being sent “basically into internment camps.”

Republican target: New Hampshire
Primary date: Sept. 13
Forecast: Leans Democratic

Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan dodged a bullet when GOP Gov. Chris Sununu decided not to challenge her, leaving a growing field of little-known Republican candidates — none of whom have demonstrated impressive fundraising abilities.But New Hampshire has a penchant for swinginess, which means it could be much more competitive than Biden’s 7-point win there in 2020. The campaign is attracting attention for all sorts of reasons: Last month, Hassan faced fierce criticism from all sides over her immigration stance; this month, she’s one of the vulnerable Senate Democrats campaigning as a bulwark against abortion bans.
They left out Florida and that's a lift, but Val Demings vs. Marco Rubio is more competitive than expected. Leans Republican but Rubio (and DeSantis) are lightning rods for criticism.


Here's some stories from today about Florida:
Latest poll of Florida U.S. Senate race: Marco Rubio 49%, Val Demings 47%
Jacob Ogles September 7, 2022
A new AARP shows the incumbent with just a 2-point lead.
A new poll shows Sen. Marco Rubio is under the critical 50% mark with Florida voters.

The survey results, conducted for AARP Florida by two top pollsters, reveal the Republican Senator with a slim lead, winning 49% support among likely voters to Democrat Val Demings’ 47%. That puts the race well within the poll’s 4.4% margin of error. Incumbents, as a rule, want to poll ahead of 50% as they seek re-election, but the results of the AARP poll signal the state remains as divided as ever. And when it comes to federal elections, issues like Medicare and Medicaid support and interest in cheaper pharmaceutical drug costs loom especially large. Republican firm Fabrizio Ward and Democratic outfit Impact Research worked together on the comprehensive survey.

Rubio holds a lead of 51% to Demings’ 46% when looking solely at voters over the age of 50, a more reliable demographic regarding turnout. The polling also shows 92% of Democrats supporting Demings while 90% of Republicans defend Rubio. The incumbent comes out ahead thanks to 48% of independents breaking his way, compared to 45% voting for the Democrat. Rubio’s place seems particularly precarious considering a large segment of voters remains unfamiliar with Demings. She holds a solid net favorability rating, with 42% of respondents liking her and just 28% disliking her. But that leaves a full 30% with no opinion, a sign that the Central Florida Congresswoman has room to grow in recognition. “Val Demings is still not known or defined to a sizable chunk of these voters,” said Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio of Fabrizio Ward.

John Anzalone, the founder of Impact Research, noted that the poll found that 19% of voters remain persuadable. By comparison, only 11% of voters fall in that camp in the Governor’s race, which was surveyed simultaneously. “Seniors are going to be a critical deciding factor in the Demings race,” Hogan said, “and again, setting up what I’m sure she’s going to communicate on are some of the things that just got done.” For example, the inflation Reduction Act, which Demings supported in the House and Rubio opposed in the Senate, tests well. It’s also popular to allow Medicare to negotiate drug costs The popularity of negotiating with Medicare for prescription drug prices. “The Senate race issues are dominated by senior-related issues,” Hogan said.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/55 ... l-demings/
Another poll shows Marco Rubio with low likability, but holding a small edge over Val Demings
Jacob Ogles September 7, 2022
Susquehanna pollsters found the Senator with a -30 net favorability rating among independents.
Yet another poll shows a tight race between GOP U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio and Democratic challenger Val Demings.

Survey results from Susquehanna Polling and Research shows Rubio with 47% support compared to Demings’ 44%. The 3-point difference between candidates puts the race within the poll’s 4.3 percentage point margin of error. The results show the Republican incumbent under 50%, consistent with similar polling released in recent weeks including a major poll for AARP Florida released the same day. The Susquehanna poll, first released to Real Clear Politics, shows there could be trouble for Rubio with independents leaning toward the Democrat. A memo from pollster Tom Lee notes this poll also shows a shift from a poll from August last year, when Rubio enjoyed a 50% to 39% edge and sat above the critical majority threshold for an incumbent. “The biggest shift comes from Independents and NPA’s, where Demings leads Rubio 41:32, a reversal from a 42:41 Rubio lead last year,” Lee wrote, before comparing Rubio’s numbers to his last contest against former U.S. Rep. Patrick Murphy.

“Exit polling shows Rubio won Independents/NPA’s by a 52:42 margin over his last opponent in 2016 (Murphy), so Rubio’s loss of support with this critical swing group could cost him the election if he doesn’t shore up this vote.” The poll indicates Rubio way underwater with independent voters, with 47% holding an unfavorable view of the Senator and just 27% viewing him favorably. Meanwhile, 31% of voters like Demings and 28% dislike her. That suggests she is in positive territory but also remains an unknown quantity to many Florida voters. Among all voters, Rubio remains underwater but has a lift from Republicans, so he ends up with a 45% unfavorable and 41% favorable showing. Demings is viewed well by 37% of all likely voters and unfavorably by 31%. Pollsters surveyed 500 likely voters between Aug. 29 and Sept. 3, making this the most recently taken poll now publicly available on the race.
https://floridapolitics.com/archives/55 ... l-demings/


Let's go Team Fogbow! If this is better handled in the indy race topics, no problem, it's just an idea to get an overview on how we're doing.

As of today, 538 is giving Democrats a 70% shot at retaining the Senate!


70 Senate.JPG
70 Senate.JPG (90.24 KiB) Viewed 321 times
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... st/senate/
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Re: Project FogWIN - Let's Win Senate #Midterms2022 Swing States!

#2

Post by Tiredretiredlawyer »

Arkansas is where Sarah Sanders wants to be the first female governor. There is lots of dark money flowing to her.

Progressive Arkansas Women PAC has given its very first Seal of Approval to Chris Jones who is running for governor and would be the first Black governor.

I have contributed to many of the candidates Orlylicious endorses above. Please consider donating your time or money to the Chris Jones campaign.

https://chrisforgovernor.com

His introductory video on this site made national news because it is compelling.
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Re: Project FogWIN - Let's Win Senate #Midterms2022 Swing States!

#3

Post by raison de arizona »

orlylicious wrote: Wed Sep 07, 2022 12:37 pm
Republican target: Arizona
Forecast: Toss-up

The GOP field is packed with candidates who will face off in the primary to take on Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly — one of the most vulnerable senators up for reelection this year — in a closely divided state. State Attorney General Mark Brnovich was the GOP frontrunner for nearly a year, but he lost his lead as he struggled to articulate a clear position on the 2020 election. He’s been surpassed by wealthy solar power executive Jim Lamon, a self-funder who has spent $3.8 million on TV advertisements. Meanwhile, Trump and Sen. Josh Hawley have both shown interest in Blake Masters, tech billionaire Peter Thiel’s former de facto chief of staff.
Masters won the primary, but he's been cut off from the GOP funds pipeline for some unknown reason. He's a complete nutjob, but he's retooling his image to try and appear more moderate. Kelly is running shit tons of ads and not letting him get away with it. Kelly is definitely up in the polls, currently about 6 points. I'm pretty cautiously optimistic here, Masters has been so extreme throughout the primary, I'm not sure how realistic his turn is going to be. People don't seem to be buying it, other than the ones who Want To Believe.
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Re: Project FogWIN - Let's Win Senate #Midterms2022 Swing States!

#4

Post by mojosapien »

Billy Bragg is headed heayyyh...
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Re: Project FogWIN - Let's Win Senate #Midterms2022 Swing States!

#5

Post by Frater I*I »

Tiredretiredlawyer wrote: Wed Sep 07, 2022 1:14 pm Arkansas is where Sarah Sanders wants to be the first female succubus governor. There is lots of dark money flowing to her.

:snippity:
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Re: Project FogWIN - Let's Win Senate #Midterms2022 Swing States!

#6

Post by Luke »

Great comments and thank you TRL!

Now even POLITICO is calling the Senate a Toss-up... all year they've had GOP Wins. With "candidate quality" issues as RDA mentions (Blake Masters), Project FogWIN (with awesome sekrit support from the 699th) is right on schedule.

Reposting this because it's pretty amazing Breitbart would post this and the data is from RW Trafalgar. The blame game seems to be starting early. Thanks to the dotard for his help with endorsements :P
OrlyLicious 🇺🇸 @Orly_licious 2h
🚨 #MAGA Doom! New Trafalgar Poll: 56.1% MAJORITY of Americans say GOP has NOT made a strong enough case to support them in #Midterms2022.
NO by Party:
🚫 57.2% #INDEPENDENTS
🚫 25.9% #REPUBLICANS
🚫 87.1% #DEMS
Dems keep House & Senate! 🥳 #ElectionDay #VOTE #BlueCrew #VoteBlue
Breitbart story: https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022 ... -midterms/
Trafalgar report: Report: https://t.co/YkG0jVlcXX pic.twitter.com/pgIexolaIi

Here's a page of Rick Scott's plan. Unless he's a closet Democrat, his plan is a disaster for the GOP eight weeks before the Midterms. How fuc*ed up is this:

Rick Scott Plan.JPG
Rick Scott Plan.JPG (122.18 KiB) Viewed 225 times


We want to be sure to spread it far and wide. Even President Biden called attention to it and put it on a democrats.com site :lol:








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Project FogWIN - Let's Win Senate #Midterms2022 Swing States!

#7

Post by Luke »

Was looking for something else and forgot about this topic. :P Project FogWIN was a smashing success! :dance: Thank you Foggy and everybody for keeping the Senate to stop the MAGA GOP madness. Soon it will be time for Project FogWIN 2024, let's go team!

Only 668 DAYS until Tuesday, November 5, 2024!
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Project FogWIN - Let's Win Senate #Midterms2022 Swing States!

#8

Post by Foggy »

So it's a little early to start getting nervous? :hide:
Out from under. :thumbsup:
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