California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd; Sanders (Win) Dels/210

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Addie
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California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd; Sanders (Win) Dels/210

#1

Post by Addie »

Thread title changed

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LA Times
What you need to know before voting in California's primary election

The California primary election is just over a month away, with presidential, congressional and state legislative races on the March 3 ballot. The state is voting earlier than usual, in an effort to boost its influence in deciding the Democratic nomination.

This will be the first primary in which the California Voter’s Choice Act changes the way registered voters in 15 counties — Los Angeles included — cast their ballots. Voters will have several ways to make their preferences known on or before election day.

Here’s some of what voters need to know:

How do I know if I’m eligible to vote in California?

You must be 18 years or older on election day, a U.S. citizen and state resident. You cannot be in state or federal prison or on felony parole, or deemed by a judge to be mentally incompetent.

When is the deadline to register to vote?

If you are registering online or by mail, you must do so by Feb. 18. You can pick up a voter registration form at most post offices, libraries, city and county government buildings and local elections offices.
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Re: California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#2

Post by busterbunker »

The reports I've been reading suggest Bernie is in the lead. His campaign is highly mobilized and has offices in more cities than other candidates, including one a couple blocks from me in a stripped-down vacant storefront.

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Re: California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#3

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Politico
Last-minute California bill could boost independent votes in Democratic primary

SACRAMENTO — As California's primary takes on greater importance following the muddled Iowa caucuses, voters could find it easier to cast ballots in the wide-open Democratic presidential primary under a bill speeding toward Gov. Gavin Newsom's desk.

CA SB207 (19R) by Sen. Melissa Hurtado (D-Sanger) would allow voters to submit a written request to county election officials changing their party registration or address within 14 days of an election until the close of polls on Election Day.

Under current law, the state's 5.4 million no-party-preference (NPP) voters have to formally request a partisan ballot to participate in the Democratic primary, either in advance for mail ballot voters or at the polling place for those who vote in person. The Republican primary has even stricter rules set by the party — independent voters must reregister as Republicans to participate in GOP closed primary contests.

The move comes as the number of NPP voters has exploded in California, leading to confusion about who has the ability to vote in primaries. NPP voters now comprise more than a quarter of California's electorate, surpassing GOP registrants in the state.

Proponents said the change will make it easier for voters to participate in the primary they want by reregistering at the polling place.
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Re: California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#4

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LA Times: Essential Politics: California's surge of independents fades
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Re: California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#5

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CapRadio: PolitiFact California: There’s A Lot Of Misinformation About California’s March Primary Election. Here Are The Facts.
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Re: California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#6

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FiveThirtyEight: Who’s ahead in California?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Sanders 27.3%
Bloomberg 13.3%
Biden 13.1%
Warren 12.7%
Buttigieg 10.5%
Klobuchar 4.4%
Steyer 2.6%
Gabbard 2.4%
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Re: California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#7

Post by busterbunker »

Bloomberg's been carpet-bombing ads nonstop. They all have the same generic Subaru soundtrack. He's been trying to drum up mayoral support. Came to town to eat an overpriced bagel down my block. Steyer's also going for the "look at me, I'm a rich guy on TV" approach. Glad the primary is early this year so they'll be off the air before March Madness.

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Re: California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#8

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Associated Press
California voters can switch party status on election day

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) — California voters will be able to change their party affiliation and update their address at polling stations on election day under a new law approved in time for the March 3 Democratic primary.

The change was particularly sought as it will allow the state’s 5.6 million independent voters to register with a party by signing off on only one form on election day. Democratic presidential campaigns hope the law will boost the number of registered Democrats and participation in their primary.

Gov. Gavin Newsom on Thursday afternoon signed the bill into law, which takes effect immediately.

The upcoming primary is also the first time Californians can newly register to vote on election day at polling stations. Anticipating long lines of residents registering to vote, lawmakers from both parties said the new rule will allow already registered voters to bypass those lines if they simply wish to update their party affiliation or residency.
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Re: California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#9

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New York Times - Timothy Egan
California Takes Revenge on Trump

People leaving the Golden State are changing the political makeup of the states they move to.

President Trump clearly hates the most populous state in the country he governs. While trashing California with his gutter mouth, the president has used his office to physically trash the home to nearly one in eight Americans — seeking to make its air more polluted, its water less clean, its forests more vulnerable to catastrophic fires.

But now the Golden State is poised to strike back. By moving its presidential primary from June to March 3, California will finally exert a political influence commensurate to its size. Almost 500 delegates, a fourth of the number needed to win the Democratic nomination, are at stake.

Perhaps more consequential — or at least overlooked — is what’s happening among the vast diaspora of more than 7.3 million people who have left California since 2007. They appear to be changing the political makeup of the states they’ve moved to, perhaps enough to alter the Electoral College map in favor of Democrats.

With nearly 40 million people, California is still gaining population — barely. But stratospheric home prices and unbearable rental costs have created a reverse “Grapes of Wrath,” forcing those who are not rich to flee to states with much lower costs of living.

The question is: Are they bringing California values — fierce defense of the environment, tolerance of immigrants and a multiracial society, insistence on universal health care — with them? It could be just demographic churn. But if you look at the changing politics of Nevada, Colorado and Arizona, all fast-growing states packed with new arrivals from California, the answer is yes. Texas may not be far behind.
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Re: California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#10

Post by Estiveo »

I dropped my ballot in the mail on Wednesday. I'm Decline to State or NPP or whatever they're calling it this year, and this is the first time I haven't requested a Democratic ballot (or temporarily re-registered Republican) to vote in the Presidential Primary, just voted the non-partisan ballot.

It felt a little weird, but I found that I just don't care enough about any one candidate to vote for them. (I'd have voted for Harris or Castro if either one was still in it.)

Come November, though...
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Re: California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#11

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Capitol Weekly
The math of the March primary

As we barrel toward the March 3 primary election, most eyes are on national and statewide polls showing a tight contest between four top contenders, with the latest Capitol Weekly polling showing Senator Bernie Sanders with a slight lead over Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Vice President Joe Biden, followed by Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of Southbend, Ind.

But California’s Democratic primary isn’t won at the “national poll” level, or even at the “statewide poll” level – it’s won through a complicated, proportional, delegate-allocation procedure that affects campaign strategy and could muddy the final election results.

So get ready for some numbers — a lot of numbers.

California will send 495 delegates to the National Democratic Convention this summer in Milwaukee, Wis. Of those, 416 of these will be pledged delegates (meaning that they are committed to a candidate), while 79 will be the unpledged “superdelegates,” consisting of the 30 Democratic National Committee members, 46 Democratic members of congress and the governor.
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Re: California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#12

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FiveThirtyEight: Who’s ahead in California?

Updating average for each Democratic candidate in 2020 primary polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Sanders 28.8%
Bloomberg 14.4%
Warren 12.7%
Biden 12.6%
Buttigieg 9.8%
Klobuchar 5.3%
Steyer 2.8%
Gabbard 2.3%
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Re: California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#13

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Politico
Rural California's delegate gold mine suddenly matters in Democratic primary

TURLOCK — Vast farm regions once considered California flyover country have suddenly become stopover country for presidential campaigns two weeks before Super Tuesday.

Fresh off a strong showing in New Hampshire, Pete Buttigieg landed in this small Central Valley city of 74,000, addressing an excited crowd of 700 Stanislaus County Democrats at their “Rhapsody in Blue” Valentine’s Day gala dinner. Many said couldn’t believe their luck, not after decades of presidential candidates ignoring California's inland areas.

“I’ve lived in California my whole life, and I’ve never seen a presidential candidate,’’ said Kathy Causey, a retired child protective services worker and lifelong Democrat who lives in the foothills area of Twain Harte.

Buttigieg’s road trip into the region John Steinbeck once described as “America’s Breadbasket” underscores how candidates are going to far-flung regions of the state to mine for delegate gold in a competitive Democratic primary.

“California is no longer a strategic consideration. It’s a tactical consideration,’’ said GOP strategist Mike Madrid. He noted that California's primary rules award delegates proportionally by congressional district, meaning that candidates know they must essentially run their ground game essentially “‘in 53 different states,’’ the number of congressional districts in California.
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Re: California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

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Sacramento Bee
Bernie Sanders stands alone at the top in California as Mike Bloomberg rises, new poll says

Bernie Sanders stands alone at the top of the pack in California, according to a new poll released Tuesday afternoon by the Public Policy Institute of California.

Sanders holds his widest lead to date among the 2020 Democratic presidential field since PPIC began polling on the state of the race in California in July 2019.

Sanders got 32 percent support from likely March 3 Democratic primary voters. He is followed distantly by Joe Biden at 14 percent, Elizabeth Warren at 13 percent and Michael Bloomberg and Pete Buttigieg at 12 percent.

Under complex rules set by the state party, candidates need at least 15 percent of the vote statewide or in one of the state’s 53 congressional districts to eligible for a pledged delegate.

Amy Klobuchar got 5 percent support. Tom Steyer captured 3 percent of the vote, while Tulsi Gabbard came in last with 1 percent.

When PPIC most recently surveyed likely voters in January, Sanders was in first place but remained in a statistical tie with Biden and Warren. Sanders, Biden and Warren had support from 27 percent, 24 percent and 23 percent of respondents. ...

Bloomberg previously polled at just 1 percent, though his name wasn’t provided as an option for respondents during live interviews, which could have contributed to an undercount. For the first time this election cycle, PPIC interviewers read off the names of all Democratic candidates still in the presidential race.

Buttigieg saw the next biggest gain, climbing up by 6 percentage points since January. Biden and Warren each dropped by 10 points.
Adding:
CBS SF: Poll: Bernie Sanders Opens Up 18-Point Lead In California Democratic Primary
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Re: California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

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Monmouth University Polling Institute: Sanders Leads with One-Quarter of Vote

West Long Branch, NJ – Bernie Sanders leads the field in California’s Super Tuesday primary, despite the fact that only 1 in 4 likely voters currently support him. The Monmouth (“Mon-muth”) University Poll finds that Sanders’ vote share could increase, though, if it came down to a two-person race. Latino voters are a core constituency for Sanders in the Golden State. With early ballots already rolling in, few voters say there is a high possibility they will change their candidate choice.

Among California voters who are likely to participate in the March 3 Democratic primary, support currently stands at 24% for Sanders, followed by 17% for Joe Biden, 13% for Mike Bloomberg, 10% for Elizabeth Warren, and 9% for Pete Buttigieg. Support for other candidates includes Tom Steyer at 5%, Amy Klobuchar at 4%, and Tulsi Gabbard at 2%. Another 13% of likely primary voters remain undecided and do not lean toward any candidate at this time.

“California is the big prize on Super Tuesday. As the poll currently stands, it’s possible that only two or three candidates reach viability in any given congressional district. That would enable Sanders to rack up half the delegates or more while only earning one-quarter of the total vote,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
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Re: California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#16

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Does anyone know if there has been polling done at the congressional district level?
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Re: California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

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The New Yorker - John Cassidy
The Delegate Math Now Favors Bernie Sanders

The most significant development in the Democratic primary over the past few days wasn’t Wednesday night’s slugfest of a debate in Las Vegas, entertaining as that was for anybody not in Michael Bloomberg’s camp. It was the publication of three separate opinion polls that showed Bernie Sanders with a substantial lead over the other candidates in California, which votes on Super Tuesday, March 3rd, now less than two weeks away.

The poll findings are important not only because California, the most populous state in the nation, carries a prize of four hundred and sixteen pledged delegates—more than a tenth of the over-all total of 3,979. The polls reflect how the Sanders campaign is growing in strength, ahead of the biggest day of the primary, and they also illustrate how the rules for allocating delegates could work to his advantage. Together, these factors place him in what is potentially a very strong position, even as the primary process is still at what seems like an early stage.

One of the three surveys, from Public Policy Institute of California, showed the Vermont senator with a whopping advantage of eighteen points—thirty-two per cent to fourteen per cent—over the second-place candidate, Joe Biden. In the other two surveys—from Monmouth University and SurveyUSA —Sanders’s lead was smaller but still notable: seven points and four points, respectively.

It’s unwise to place much credence on the results of a single poll, of course. But if you combine all three of the surveys and weigh them according to their sample size, two key findings emerge: Sanders has about 27.4 per cent of the vote, and the only other candidates to cross the threshold of fifteen per cent are Biden and Bloomberg. (They both did it narrowly.) ...

A key point to remember is that in California, as in many other states, the Democratic Party has decided that candidates won’t be allocated any delegates unless they receive fifteen per cent of the vote in a particular congressional district or fifteen per cent of the statewide vote. (Two hundred and seventy-two of the delegates are attached to individual districts, and a hundred and forty-four are tied to the statewide vote.)
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Re: California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#18

Post by P.K. »

Addie wrote:
Thu Feb 06, 2020 6:53 pm
Politico
Last-minute California bill could boost independent votes in Democratic primary

SACRAMENTO — As California's primary takes on greater importance following the muddled Iowa caucuses, voters could find it easier to cast ballots in the wide-open Democratic presidential primary under a bill speeding toward Gov. Gavin Newsom's desk.

CA SB207 (19R) by Sen. Melissa Hurtado (D-Sanger) would allow voters to submit a written request to county election officials changing their party registration or address within 14 days of an election until the close of polls on Election Day.

Under current law, the state's 5.4 million no-party-preference (NPP) voters have to formally request a partisan ballot to participate in the Democratic primary, either in advance for mail ballot voters or at the polling place for those who vote in person. The Republican primary has even stricter rules set by the party — independent voters must reregister as Republicans to participate in GOP closed primary contests.

The move comes as the number of NPP voters has exploded in California, leading to confusion about who has the ability to vote in primaries. NPP voters now comprise more than a quarter of California's electorate, surpassing GOP registrants in the state.

Proponents said the change will make it easier for voters to participate in the primary they want by reregistering at the polling place.

I did my pollworker - excuse me, election worker, training this week. When a NPP voter checks in, the new computerized system prompts the election worker to ask if they would like a crossover ballot for the three parties that allow it, or a NPP ballot.

I have....thoughts about the new system. It has many features that make accessibility much easier - no more special audio ballot booth or wheelchair accessible booth. And the fact that you can go to any voting center in the county is very convenient, along with the eleven days of early voting. But an ipad based check in and ballot issuing system will be confusing for some of the older or less tech-savvy election workers, and the touchscreen voting system will be confusing for elderly voters. I'm only working election day, not any of the early voting days, due to my show schedule (we open next Friday 2/28) so I'm hoping a lot of the kinks are worked out by the time I come on board. I just know I'm going to need a boatload of patience that day. Think calming thoughts for me on 3/3, please. :brickwallsmall:
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Re: California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#19

Post by p0rtia »

Fingers crossed.

In NY we switched to iPad voter check-in last November. We were worried that it would be difficult, but man, it was slick from the Election Worker POV. Voters signed the iPad with finger or stylus, with no problem whatsoever.

Just for check-in, though. We hand out paper ballots which the voter fills out and feeds into the scanner. We had the usual minor problems with that.
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Re: California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#20

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Break a leg, P.K. :bighug:
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Re: California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#21

Post by Sterngard Friegen »

I just got a personal letter from Mike Bloomberg asking for my vote.

Along with 5.5 million other Democrats. Kicking Trump's ass is mentioned a few times (in more polite language) along with how Mike apparently stood by Barack Obama's side every minute of his Presidency. (I wonder if he ever saw Joe Biden in there?) Also hitting on every other important Democratic meme: climate change, guns, Medicare, Social Security, Obamacare, good wages, paid family leave regardless of sex gender.

As I've said before, manageable prostate cancer is a lot better than Stage IV lung cancer.

Right now I'm tending to Joe and, if it looks like a lost cause, Elizabeth Warren when I cast my ballot on Super Tuesday.

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Re: California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#22

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NBC News - Jonathan Allen
Sanders drives toward Super Tuesday delegate haul as establishment frets

Analysis: The national front-runner left Nevada for California because he has the luxury of trying to build a lead while rivals battle to be the one to take him on.


LAS VEGAS — Bernie Sanders spent most of the last day before Nevada's hotly contested caucus on Saturday rallying voters who can't cast ballots here.

With the motherlode of delegates to the national convention up for grabs in the March 3 Super Tuesday contests in 14 states, the Democratic front-runner's campaign decided its most valuable resource — Sanders' time — was best used in California on Friday. He campaigned at a high school in Santa Ana that is situated in a low-turnout Hispanic-majority congressional district in the morning and at an amphitheater in Bakersfield — the hometown of House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy — in the afternoon.

It's not that the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination has given up on Nevada — he's favored to win here and he returned to Las Vegas for a final outdoor rally on Friday night. It's just that mining votes in California is both a luxury he can afford and a more crucial aspect of his strategy than adding support in Nevada.

That's because the results in Nevada are all but certain to be a footnote in the story of whether Sanders wins the Democratic nomination, while the smallest of margins in California, Texas and other Super Tuesday states could be pivotal in his quest to walk into the party's convention this summer with either a majority or a large plurality of delegates.

The effect is that Sanders is working toward taking a commanding lead in the race while his establishment detractors fret in place.
Adding:
KGET: PHOTOS: Thousands packed Spectrum Amphitheatre for Bernie Sanders rally
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Re: California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#23

Post by bob »

I have received multiple (unsolicited) mailings from Bloomberg and multiple (unsolicited) texts from Sanders. :roll:

I did troll the Sanders' texter hard enough that I got a "You have a great day!" -- and blessed silence since.
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Re: California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

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LA Times
Early voting starts in L.A. County; some glitches reported

Hundreds of Los Angeles County centers opened for early voting on Saturday ahead of next month’s presidential primary election, giving voters a first glimpse of the $300-million overhaul of the county’s balloting system.

Some hiccups were reported.

About a quarter of the county’s 960 voting centers were slated to be open from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. starting Saturday. But some of them were unable to open on time because supplies or equipment needed to set up had not yet arrived, said Michael Sanchez, deputy communications director for the county registrar’s office. At other centers, workers did not have the security codes or login information necessary to start the new touch=screen ballot-marking devices. And some places were dark even though they appeared on the county’s official list of early voting centers.

The registrar’s office was still determining how many locations were affected by the problems but confirmed that at least 10 voting centers in Hollywood, West Hollywood, Silver Lake, Eagle Rock, Montecito Heights, Lincoln Heights, downtown L.A. and Pomona either opened late or not at all.

The office was “working around the clock” to send out troubleshooters and provide other assistance to those locations, and most of them were operational by Saturday afternoon, Sanchez said.
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Re: California Primary 2020: Super Tuesday March 3rd

#25

Post by Orlylicious »

I'm shocked, shocked no one here has shed a tear that Dr. Orly Taitz ESQ BBQ WTF is NOT on the ballot this year. It's unfair, she knows her purpose is to entertain us. Maybe all her donors are in the #DeadBirthers topic (not the first time :P ).

While she still promotes her adorably-named RunOrlyRun.com, there's no site there anymore. In her Twitter bio right now, she still refers people to orlytaitzforussenate2012.com, a name that rolls off the tongue.
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