Anton Gerashchenko
@Gerashchenko_en
In recent months in Russia, there have been incidents of Internet shutdowns and blocking of messengers such as WhatsApp and Telegram in regions where even minimal protest activity is detected.
On the one hand, this indicates that Russian regional authorities consider the possibility of mass protests to be quite real. On the other hand, this is "insurance" against accusations of inaction on the part of Moscow authorities. At the same time, an important point is overlooked: restricting access to the Internet does not narrow, but on the contrary, expands the pool of those dissatisfied.
On January 24, messengers stopped working in two regions of the Far Eastern District of Russia (Khabarovsk region and Yakutia). A week earlier, similar shutdowns occurred in Bashkiria. In the case of Bashkiria (where there were protests related to the trial of Fayil Alsynov) and Yakutia (where there was a conflict on interethnic grounds), the reason for the shutdowns can be explained by current events and attempts to "extinguish" possible coordination of protesters. Whereas in Khabarovsk region, there was no obvious reason and the shutdowns were of a "preventive and prophylactic" nature.
This practice is becoming a system: now the authorities will probably disable messengers in any unclear situation - for example, dispersal of peaceful demonstrations.
Such actions can indeed hinder mass gatherings. However, it is evident that they will worry not just activists but also the apolitical general public, aggravating them and effectively pushing them towards protests.
This is especially noticeable by the reaction of the population of Yakutia - they complain en masse on social networks about the problems (with studying, work, business) that have arisen after the blocking. One of the few "platforms" on which they try to "reach out" to the local authorities is the page of the Head of the Republic Aysen Nikolaev on the Vkontakte Russian social network.
Since Nikolaev writes nothing at all about either protests or blockades, the disgruntled leave their comments under all posts available for comment (for example, the one on the Forum and Exhibition "Russia"). "Turn on WhatsApp back! All of our life goes through the Internet, work, study, shopping, etc. etc. What kind of discrimination is this? Or turn on wi-fi for everyone," indignant residents of Yakutian cities wrote.
The attempt of pro-government trolls to blame "the West" for disconnections ("They say it's the Americans who have permanently turned off the Internet") does not inspire confidence and does not receive support.
Yakutian authorities themselves are trying to explain what is happening by some kind of "preventive maintenance" of a technical nature, which almost no one believes in either. At the same time, official media emphasize that WhatsApp belongs to Meta company, which is recognized as an extremist organization in Russia; its activities are banned. The reasons for blocking Telegram owned by Russian Durov are not specified.
![◾️](//cdn.jsdelivr.net/gh/twitter/twemoji@latest/assets/svg/25fe.svg)
It seems that the Russian authorities are actively preparing for mass protests and have already technically tested ways to make coordination between protesters through messengers more difficult.
![◾️](//cdn.jsdelivr.net/gh/twitter/twemoji@latest/assets/svg/25fe.svg)
The initiators of the blockings are acting within the framework of the perception that mass protests are always "political technology" and that by removing the possibility of rapid distribution of certain information they can be suppressed.
![◾️](//cdn.jsdelivr.net/gh/twitter/twemoji@latest/assets/svg/25fe.svg)
"Side" effects of blocking (people's dependence on stable work of the Internet) are not taken into account or are considered admissible, and expressed mass discontent is ignored. It is believed that the claims will be limited to virtual outrages.
![◾️](//cdn.jsdelivr.net/gh/twitter/twemoji@latest/assets/svg/25fe.svg)
The negative impact of the shutdowns will be directed at local authorities, who are unable to explain to the apolitical common man why they should suffer inconvenience and losses from such actions, nor to give guarantees that the shutdowns will not become permanent.
![◾️](//cdn.jsdelivr.net/gh/twitter/twemoji@latest/assets/svg/25fe.svg)
For several years now there has been talk in Russia of developing national social networks following the example of China and blocking Western ones. A huge number of Russians are already using VPN services.
![◾️](//cdn.jsdelivr.net/gh/twitter/twemoji@latest/assets/svg/25fe.svg)
The creation of a "sovereign Internet" (with a ban on all uncontrolled services - from WhatsApp to YouTube) is, to a certain extent, utopian. At least, it will not directly affect possible protest activity, because the reasons for it lie in the unresolved problems of Russians, not in the availability of access to the Internet.
![◾️](//cdn.jsdelivr.net/gh/twitter/twemoji@latest/assets/svg/25fe.svg)
People who experience everyday inconveniences due to non-working messengers, now spend time and energy on this problem and therefore do not pay attention to the general situation in Russia and the current major problems in their regions.