Fogbow

Uninformed wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:41 am Being unable to see the “logic” behind Putin’s machinations re Ukraine I have started to wonder if this is a simply step in the undermining of the USA’s presence/power in Europe as part of long-term manoeuvring to, allied with China, attempt the same globally. Then again it might be time to take my tinfoil hat off.

Well, that was the exact thesis put up by an 'expert' on Australian Radio National this morning. I don't know who it was because the radio alarm woke me up sometime after he was introduced.

Suranis wrote: ↑Sat Feb 19, 2022 3:09 pm The Russian propaganda makes no sense.

Over the decades they have found that it doesn't have to make sense. Nonsensical or easily debunked claims seem to be more effective than carefully planned and internally consistent narratives.

Uninformed wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:41 am Being unable to see the “logic” behind Putin’s machinations re Ukraine I have started to wonder if this is a simply step in the undermining of the USA’s presence/power in Europe as part of long-term manoeuvring to, allied with China, attempt the same globally. Then again it might be time to take my tinfoil hat off.

There probably is not one single reason, other than Putin wanting to stay in power. Under him he has all sorts of pressures from groups he depends on who want various things, some of which are conflicting. I think the big reason this whole mess does not seem to make clear sense is that it is a result of trying to juggle a bunch of competing pressures during a pandemic when he needs as much support as he can get.

Uninformed wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:41 am Being unable to see the “logic” behind Putin’s machinations re Ukraine I have started to wonder if this is a simply step in the undermining of the USA’s presence/power in Europe as part of long-term manoeuvring to, allied with China, attempt the same globally. Then again it might be time to take my tinfoil hat off.

I don't think it requires a tin foil hat to think that that - or something substantially similar - is going on.

Kriselda Gray wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 9:53 am

Uninformed wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:41 am Being unable to see the “logic” behind Putin’s machinations re Ukraine I have started to wonder if this is a simply step in the undermining of the USA’s presence/power in Europe as part of long-term manoeuvring to, allied with China, attempt the same globally. Then again it might be time to take my tinfoil hat off.

I don't think it requires a tin foil hat to think that that - or something substantially similar - is going on.

Agree. I think it’s well established that Putin wants to decrease the US footprint and influence in Europe and likely elsewhere. Also wants to bring back the power the former USSR had as a result of having some of those now independent countries “back” under Russian control.

Keeping the tinfoil hat on…
Is it possible that “spheres of influence” was a topic of conversation between the DFO and Putin? The DFO appeared pretty anti-EU and seems to have viewed Jina as the main adversary not Russia.

Speaking g of False Flag operations, the one that stands out was the Gleinitz incident on August 31st 1939 which was the Nazis used the pretext that Polish nationals invaded Nazi Germany and seized a Radio station to broadcast anti-German messages. As proof of this "invasion" there were dead men dressed in Polish uniforms. The next day Germany invaded Poland.

Uninformed wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 11:50 am Keeping the tinfoil hat on…

I have followed politics intensely my entire life, and this is not a tinfoil hat situation. This could easily develop into World War Three.

On the bright side, it will probably be fairly brief, but then Earthlings say that about all their wars. When World War One started (in August 1917), everybody agreed that the whole thing would be over by Christmastime. There are many more examples.

Putin doesn't see our resolve, but it's there, fuck you very much Tucker Carlson. Putin IS going to invade, and thousands of people will die at the beginning of the war. Then we will put the clamps on him in a way that is likely to persuade him to attack American troops. In these situations, it is so very much easier to escalate than to de-escalate.

They don't even make tin foil anymore, or I'd wear the hat every day. And aluminium isn't a good shield against radioactive fallout.

Ima steal that.

Uninformed wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 5:41 am Being unable to see the “logic” behind Putin’s machinations re Ukraine I have started to wonder if this is a simply step in the undermining of the USA’s presence/power in Europe as part of long-term manoeuvring to, allied with China, attempt the same globally. Then again it might be time to take my tinfoil hat off.

Putin was never happy that the former USSR with its collapse lost the buffer states to the West. He is attempting to claw it back when needed in pieces. At this time I still am unsure Putin will make for a total annection of the Ukraine (maybe I am too optimistic) but like getting Krimea integrated into Russia he will pick those couple of separatist regions. If Putin is really trying to act up, he may go for the complete eastern part of the Ukraine, those east of the Dnjieper river, having the river as the new shared property.

But also to he is challenging the US and NATO. I wonder what his recent talks with Chinas Xi Jinping were about. Like binding US forces in Europe and leaving the Far East with little military options, China free to move in the East China Sea and challenging Taiwan (and sending bad vibes to Japan).

neeneko wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 9:50 am There probably is not one single reason, other than Putin wanting to stay in power. Under him he has all sorts of pressures from groups he depends on who want various things, some of which are conflicting. I think the big reason this whole mess does not seem to make clear sense is that it is a result of trying to juggle a bunch of competing pressures during a pandemic when he needs as much support as he can get.

Interesting thread on Purim’s motivations and options:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ulrichspeck/ ... 3063657472

Foggy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 1:03 pm On the bright side, it will probably be fairly brief, but then Earthlings say that about all their wars. When World War One started (in August 1917), everybody agreed that the whole thing would be over by Christmastime. There are many more examples.

1914. Sterngard was there.

Duplicate post.

Foggy wrote: ↑Mon Feb 21, 2022 1:03 pm They don't even make tin foil anymore, or I'd wear the hat every day. And aluminium isn't a good shield against radioactive fallout.

GOP= Groveling Over Putin

CBS News
@CBSNews
·
6m
BREAKING: Putin says he'll recognize independence of Ukraine breakaway regions, escalating conflict with West

Ursula von der Leyen
@vonderleyen
The recognition of the two separatist territories in #Ukraine is a blatant violation of international law, the territorial integrity of Ukraine and the #Minsk agreements.

The EU and its partners will react with unity, firmness and with determination in solidarity with Ukraine.

New sanctions now!

ABC News
@ABC
·
1m
JUST IN: President of the EU Commission: "The recognition of the two separatist territories in Ukraine is a blatant violation of international law...The EU and its partners will react with unity, firmness and with determination in solidarity with Ukraine." https://abcn.ws/3H41mCl

Daniel W. Drezner
@dandrezner
·
38m
Putin saying explicitly that it's a new Cold War now, there will be no concessions, and sanctions will have no effect on Russian actions.

Grant Ukraine immediate NATO membership.

Reuters
@Reuters
·
1m
Rouble sinks, stocks plunge as Russia recognises Ukraine breakaway regions http://reut.rs/3JNpIlL

I'm dumping all my rubles.

BC DFW
@NBCDFW
·
8m
Biden Set to Order Sanctions on Separatist Regions of Ukraine After Putin Decree, EU Vows Additional Measures

Jake Cordell
@JakeCordell
· 23m
Federation Council deputy chair Andrei Klimov says Russia will recognize the de facto borders of DPR/LPR as they are today, TASS reports. No claims (yet) on the two-thirds of Ukraine's Donetsk/Luhansk oblasts which are under Kyiv's control

ABC News Politics
@ABCPolitics
·
19m
Replying to
@ABC
MORE: "To be clear: these measures are separate from and would be in addition to the swift and severe economic measures we have been preparing in coordination with Allies and partners should Russia further invade Ukraine," press sec. Jen Psaki says. http://abcn.ws/3JzOKEO
Quote Tweet
ABC News
@ABC
· 19m
BREAKING: White House: "President Biden will soon issue an Executive Order that will prohibit new investment, trade, and financing by U.S. persons to, from, or in the so-called DNR and LNR regions of Ukraine." https://abcn.ws/3JzOKEO