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This race, along with some others, will continue to be flooded with out-of-state cash for Democrats and Republicans for the next 7 months.The prominent ads going after Tester so far are from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, Crossroads GPS – a conservative group with links to former Bush adviser Karl Rove – and the 60 Plus Association, who together have spent more than $1.5 million on TV ads.On the anti-Rehberg side, a group called Citizens for Strength and Security, which apparently has ties to union groups, and two wildlife/hunting groups have spent about $720,000.Various other groups have spent another $800,000 to $1 million on broadcast ads attacking or supporting either candidate.[/break1]com/elections_2012/congress/us_senate/outside-money-ads-driving-rehberg-tester-race-for-u-s/article_f5e773e0-761f-11e1-84b1-001871e3ce6c.html]http://missoulian.com/elections_2012/co ... 3ce6c.htmlSen Tester has a target on his back almost as big as the one on Sen Claire McCaskill.
The Montana Hunters & Anglers Action group is not in favor of HR 1505 (Congressman Rehberg is a cosponsor).[/break1]loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c112:H.R.1505]http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/z?c112:H.R.1505:[/break1]loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/D?d112:1:./temp/~bdiYeK:@@@P|/home/LegislativeData.php|]http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/D ... eData.php|Rehberg need not worry. Pissing off hunters and fishermen in Montana can't be any worse than doing the same to farmers in Iowa, Nebraska or Kansas.
Sen Tester is in a fight this time. When he was initially elected in 2006 Tester ran against incumbent Sen Conrad Burns. Burns had a history of sounding like a pissed off drunk and Montanans became tired of his act. Burns' confrontation with a group of firefighters from Virginia waiting at the Billings, MT airport for their flight home after digging fire lines for about a week was not one of his better moments, although it fit perfectly with Burns' standard behavior.Sen. Conrad Burns ‘ recent verbal attack on a firefighting team for its work on a Montana blaze angered some firefighters, drew harsh criticism in state newspapers and has left the three-term Republican scrambling to repair the political damage.Burns, one of the most vulnerable incumbents in the fall elections, confronted members of a firefighting team at the Billings airport on July 23 and told them they had done a “piss-poor job,”according to an official state report and the U.S. Forest Service. The Hotshot crew had traveled 2,000 miles from Staunton, Va., to help dig fire lines for about a week around a 143-square-mile wildfire east of Billings. The crew was awaiting flights home when Burns made his comments. [/break1]outsidethebeltway.com/senator_conrad_burns_attacks_firefighters/]http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/senato ... efighters/Those guys are generally in very good physical shape. I thought it was a miracle Burns didn't require dental services after this meeting.This is still a winnable race for both Sen Tester and Congressman Rehberg.http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... -10-02.jpg[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/mt/montana_senate_rehberg_vs_tester-1826.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1826.html
Real Clear Politics lists a new poll by Public Policy Polling. Big suprise, it's still a tight race.http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... -10-10.jpg[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/mt/montana_senate_rehberg_vs_tester-1826.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1826.htmlIt turns out that Maine is not the only state where a 3rd party candidate is having an influence on a US Senate race (and push polling is in the news).Republican-leaning voters say they are receiving unsolicited calls that tout the conservative credentials of the Libertarian candidate in Montana’s tight U.S. Senate race — at the possible expense of the GOP contender.The race between U.S. Sen. Jon Tester and U.S. Rep. Denny Rehberg remains very tight with a month before the election. Some Republicans worry — and some Democrats hope — that Libertarian Dan Cox could take needed conservative votes away from Rehberg.A polling call targeting likely Rehberg voters promotes Cox as the real constitutional conservative in the race. The pollster isn’t identifying which group is behind the call.The Tester campaign said it had nothing to do with the calls.[/break1]greatfallstribune.com/viewart/20121005/NEWS01/310050019/Libertarian-could-Mont-Senate-race-spoiler]http://www.greatfallstribune.com/viewar ... ce-spoiler
Real Clear Politics lists a new poll by Rasmussen. Congressman Denny Rehberg's 4pt lead is now gone and Rasmussen is calling the race a tie at present.http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... -10-17.jpg[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/mt/montana_senate_rehberg_vs_tester-1826.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -1826.htmlThe following from the Rasmussen poll can't make Rehberg feel very good.Likely voters have a slightly more favorable view of Tester than they do his challenger: 52 percent view the incumbent favorably, while 45 percent view him unfavorably. Rehberg’s score is slightly under water: 45 percent view him favorably, while 49 percent have an unfavorable opinion of him.The candidates appear to be bucking a national trend when it comes to party affiliation and gender: Rehberg leads among women, 51 percent to 46 percent. Tester leads among men, 50 percent to 45 percent.Non-partisan voters appear to be boosting Tester. Both candidates attract ample support from their respective bases, but 58 percent of those who identify with neither party back Tester.[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/10/16/poll_tester_rehberg_tied_in_montana_115799.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articl ... 15799.html
Bob Ross' quote is from the Status thread.I don't know about Montana. It's been close all year but most of the polls I read have tester slightly ahead. Hopefully Heitkamp makes a comeback as well.http://www.thefogbow.com/forum/viewtopi ... p436806The polls I've seen indicate a very tight race. Rehberg is hoping last minute voters break for him (it is a red state). Tester is hoping they don't and that enough conservatives vote for Libertarian candidate Dan Cox to give Tester the win (10,324 voted for the Libertarian in 2006).Rehberg is not the foot-in-mouth buffoon then-Sen Conrad Burns was. Tester defeated Burns by less than 2700 votes in 2006. Burns may well have lost his re-election bid because some Montanans were tired of being embarrassed by his statements (see fire fighters in Oct 2 post above).[/break1]newwest.net/index.php/city/article/montana_election_results_tester_leading_burns_in_us_senate_race/C8/L8/]http://www.newwest.net/index.php/city/a ... ace/C8/L8/The Senate races in MA, VA, MO, IN and OH have all gotten much more press but this race appears to be the tightest. I'd enjoy a Tester win but I'm concerned that last minute voters may favor the challenger.
Favorability figures for Sen Tester and Congressman Rehberg are 3 posts above.To his credit, Tester hasn't told any Virginia fire fighters on their way home they did a piss poor job. That didn't help the last feller.
If this race becomes one I predicted wrong I'll be very happy. Sen Tester has a nice lead at present. Thank you Dan Cox for siphoning votes away from Congressman Rehberg.http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... 11-07a.jpg[/break1]nbcmontana.com/news/politics/elections]http://www.nbcmontana.com/news/politics/elections
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CNN just called the Montana Senate for Tester, and said this means that the Democrants in the senate now have... some sort of rule power. Any idea what they are talking about?
"[Moderate] doesn't mean you don't have views. It just means your views aren't predictable ideologically one way or the other, and you're trying to follow the facts where they lead and reach your own conclusions."
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-- Sen. King (I-ME)
CNN just called the Montana Senate for Tester, and said this means that the Democrants in the senate now have... some sort of rule power. Any idea what they are talking about?Cloture, maybe? They need to get to 60 for that, IIRC. If they can get the two indies plus a handful of 'Pubs, they can change the rules. As it is that are much closer to fighting off threats of a filibuster.I notice that the Libertarian in the governor's race also helped to put a Dem in. :-bd :-bd