US Senate: Maine

MaineSkeptic
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#51

Post by MaineSkeptic »

I too am interested hearing what Skeppie has found out.Well, I certainly don't want to come across as any kind of authority -- I'm not particularly politically active, and I've been speaking with a rather small sample.Last night I had a chat with a couple of women, one a Christian conservative and the other a younger liberal. What emerged was a feeling that John Baldacci (most recent former Governor, Democrat) is likely to enter the race. In that case, he would be somewhat more likely than Michaud or Pingree to win the nomination. However, King's running as an Independent would likely harm the Democrat's candidacy, to the advantage of the Republican -- just as happened with the election of current Governor, the embarrassingly RW Paul LePage, who won with 38% of the vote.

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mimi
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#52

Post by mimi »

Liberal darling Chellie Pingree won’t run for Snowe’s seatBut Pingree, after looking closely at her chances, determined that entering the race could pose too great a risk to Dem chances of holding the Senate, the Democrat familiar with her thinking tells me. Pingree did see a path to winning, and passing on the race cut against her competitive nature. But the entry of independent former governor Angus King would have meant they’d compete for many of the same voters, making a Republican victory more likely — a risk she was not prepared to take, the Democrat says.“From the data we’e seen, there is a big correlation between people who are likely to support Angus King and her base of support,” the Democrat says. A Public Policy Polling survey found that King would beat Pingree and Republican Charlie Summers in a three way race, and notably, 51 percent of King’s supporters would want him to caucus with Dems, versus only 25 percent who would want him to caucus with the GOP.“They tend to attract the same kind of voters,” the Dem says. “Making Mitch McConnell the majority leader could have an impact on which Supreme Court nominees could get confirmed. This was not something she was willing to put her personal ambition ahead of.”more:[/break1]washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/liberal-darling-chellie-pingree-wont-run-for-snowes-seat/2012/03/07/gIQA89y2wR_blog.html]http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plu ... _blog.html

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Piffle
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#53

Post by Piffle »

According to much valuable insight gained this morning at my local general store, Dems are disappointed by King's entry and Thugs are happy -- but the latter didn't appear to fully account for Pingree's decision not to run. (They were just smacking their lips at the prospects of a Tea Bagger winning in a three-way.)Angus King was a popular governor, well-suited to the temperment of this state. OTOH, Baldacci's numbers appear to be substantially behind King's, even though Baldacci was governor more recently. It's Baldacci, at this point, who worries me the most. He's the one who'd be most likely to set up a repeat of the three-way nightmare that gave us the dreadful, loathesome Gov. LePage.All things considered, though, I think King's the odds-on favorite at this point, even in a three-way. Although he's moderate in most respects, there's still the spectre of a tied Senate, in which case he'd be in a position to sell out to the highest bidder (Democratic or Republican caucus) for committee assignments and so forth.Based on no particual information, my hunch is that King would prefer to caucus with the Dems. After all, frustration with partisan Republican politics was, in large measure, what led to Snowe's retirement. Still, if the Republicans end up a position to tip the majority, stranger things have happened. As we all know, it sucks to be in the minority caucus unless you're a Republican who enjoys obstructing everything and solving nothing.IMO, as an independent, King wouldn't be a Bernie Sanders, but he wouldn't be a petulant asshole like Joe Lieberman either.As Chester A. Riley used to say, "What a revolting development this is."

Joseph Robidoux III
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#54

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

OTOH, Baldacci's numbers appear to be substantially behind King's, even though Baldacci was governor more recently. It's Baldacci, at this point, who worries me the most. He's the one who'd be most likely to set up a repeat of the three-way nightmare that gave us the dreadful, loathesome Gov. LePage.As Chester A. Riley used to say, "What a revolting development this is."Maine Teabaggers may have to work a bit harder to retain the Senate seat for Republicans.Former Gov. John Baldacci on Wednesday became the third prominent Democrat to bow out of the high-profile race for a U.S. Senate seat his party was given a shot at winning when Republican Olympia Snowe decided to retire.Baldacci joined Democratic Reps. Chellie Pingree and Mike Michaud in forgoing a race that became more complicated with the entry of independent former Gov. Angus King, widely recognized as the front-runner in a three-way contest.Thursday is the deadline for candidates to submit the 2,000 signatures necessary to get on the June primary ballot.[/break1]washingtonpost.com/national/ex-gov-baldacci-wont-run-for-us-senate-in-maine-becomes-3rd-prominent-democrat-to-bow-out/2012/03/14/gIQA6kOwBS_story.html]http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/ ... story.html

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Piffle
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#55

Post by Piffle »

IMO, this is good news that Baldacci's decided against making it a three-way race. Even though I'd prefer a real Democrat, I'm breathing a little easier now.

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#56

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

With whom would King caucus if elected?Maine Republicans and the National Republican Senatorial Committee are acting like they know it won't be them.But Maine's former two-term governor, running as an independent to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe, calls the GOP budget plan "a disaster" and the party's position on women's health "a mistake. He's also supporting President Barack Obama's re-election.Speaking to hundreds of supporters who clogged his Brunswick office, King promised that Maine voters, not partisan politics, would guide his decisions on Capitol Hill. But he repeatedly criticized key Republican policies during the AP interview, suggesting that he is ideologically aligned with Democrats.The state GOP seems to think the guessing game is over. It's attacking King for his former wind power company's loan guarantee. The National Republican Senatorial Committee has already produced a negative Web video suggesting that King's candidacy is the result of a "smoke-filled back room deal."[/break1]stltoday.com/news/national/govt-and-politics/in-senate-race-maine-s-king-is-critical-of-gop/article_f2002365-26d7-5bbb-9004-1587919e43e2.html]http://www.stltoday.com/news/national/g ... e43e2.html

MaineSkeptic
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#57

Post by MaineSkeptic »

The National Republican Senatorial Committee has already produced a negative Web video suggesting that King's candidacy is the result of a "smoke-filled back room deal."I haven't seen it, but that doesn't sound like the kind of pitch that would turn Mainers off to King.

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#58

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

Since it has been less than 2 months since Sen Snowe announced her decision not to seek re-election, there aren't as many polls as other races to offer comparisons. The previous poll I listed included Congresswoman Chellie Pingree (D-ME) who has since decided to run for re-election to the House. Former Gov Angus King presently enjoys a very comfortable lead.
US Senate ME 2012-04-13.JPG
[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/me/maine_senate_summers_vs_dunlap_vs_king-3181.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -3181.html

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Sterngard Friegen
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#59

Post by Sterngard Friegen »

Are the Democrats going to engage in potential seppuku and run someone against King?

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Highlands
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#60

Post by Highlands »

Are the Democrats going to engage in potential seppuku and run someone against King?But these are the kinds of things that the Democratic Party does so well!
If you took out all of the blood vessels in your body and lined them up, you would be dead. #science

Joseph Robidoux III
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#61

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

Are the Democrats going to engage in potential seppuku and run someone against King?Ae you suggesting the Democrats might pull a ...

Sekrit Stuffs!
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:rimshot:

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Sterngard Friegen
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#62

Post by Sterngard Friegen »

#-o

Joseph Robidoux III
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#63

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

Real Clear Politics hasn't added a new poll yet (the Maine People's Resource Center Mar 31--Apr 2 poll posted 5 spots above is still the only one published) but for some reason RCP has changed the listing of Maine from "Toss Up" to "Likely Dem", skipping over "Leans Dem".
2012-05-18 RCP.JPG
[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/2012_elections_senate_map.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html

Joseph Robidoux III
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#64

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

The Maine Republican Party has developed a new attack, which shouldn't really be much surprise. It appears they're getting desperate (also not a surprise).


Republicans, meanwhile, seem to have determined that their best chance for [Republican Charlie] Summers, Maine's secretary of state, to win is to get Democrats to split their vote between [Independent Angus] King and [Democrat Cynthia] Dill.





A registered Democratic voter in Maine sent The Huffington Post a mailer he recently received that was paid for by the state GOP. The voter said that he was confused as to why he received the literature, since he never receives mail from Republicans.





The mailer paints Dill as a "tree-hugging environmentalist" who supports marriage equality and says that Obama's health care policy is "too liberal for Maine." While all of these qualifications may repel Republican voters, they could convince some progressive Democrats to vote for Dill over King -- thus siphoning off votes from the frontrunner and helping Summers.





Maine GOP spokesman David Sorensen declined to say who the mailers were being sent to, but he denied the accusation that Republicans were deliberately promoting Dill in order to siphon votes away from King.


[/break1]huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/01/maine-election-2012_n_1929500.html?utm_hp_ref=elections-2012]http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/0 ... tions-2012Something about beachfront property in Nevada comes to mind after reading this.





Latest poll results from RCP.


http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... -10-01.jpg


[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/me/maine_senate_summers_vs_dill_vs_king-3242.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -3242.html

MaineSkeptic
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#65

Post by MaineSkeptic »

I saw my first Charlie Summers ad last night. I'm sure there have been others, I don't watch a lot of TV, but I have been struck over the past few weeks to see ads that attack King and/or Dill and are paid for by the Republican party, but do not endorse or even name a Republican candidate.

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#66

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

Not a lot of polls on this race. Real Clear Politics has added only 1 poll since my last post Oct 1. Former Gov Angus King still maintains a significant lead over Republican Charlie Summers and Democrat Cynthia Dill.http://i1143.photobucket.com/albums/n63 ... -10-26.jpg[/break1]realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/senate/me/maine_senate_summers_vs_dill_vs_king-3242.html]http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... -3242.htmlThe Republican strategy of anonymously praising Dill and encouraging Democrats to vote for her (see Oct 1 post) makes sense when you review the polls and determine the number of other/undecided remaining. Anything else and Summers is brunt toast.

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#67

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

Are the Democrats going to engage in potential seppuku and run someone against King?It looks like Angus King will be the next Senator from Maine. He's at 50% to 36% for Charlie Summers and 12% for Cynthia Dill. King has solidified his position since our last poll in September when he led Summers just 43-35. King's increased his share of the Democratic vote from 58% to 68% since that survey, he's ahead of Summers 57/31 with independents, and he's winning over 21% of the Republican vote.





King's favorability is 54/36, basically unchanged from 52/35 a couple months ago. Negative attacks on him didn't take much of a toll on his image. Summers' momentum sputtered out because voters don't find him that appealing. He has only a 39% favorability rating with 44% viewing him unfavorably.


[/break1]publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/11/obama-king-marriage-lead-in-maine.html#more]http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main ... .html#moreIt appears Maine Democratic voters trust King.

MaineSkeptic
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#68

Post by MaineSkeptic »

It appears Maine Democratic voters trust King.That's certainly the feeling I get. While many disagree with specific views of his, people feel they know him well, and find him generally sensible and trustworthy. (And, I must say, many Republicans agree. Maine's a pretty independent state.)

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SueDB
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#69

Post by SueDB »

Those Maine folks are always marching to a different drummer. --> --> -xx
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Piffle
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#70

Post by Piffle »

Those Maine folks are always marching to a different drummer. --> --> -xxAs a Mainer who's sharpening up his hunting boots for Tuesday, I resemble that remark. (And surely you know that Thoreau picked up a lot of his wisdom while munching pine nuts in the woods of Maine, right?) *****FWIW, I've received at least two mail-outs from Republican surrogate organizations pitching Dill over Angus. Seriously, folks, why not also Dill over Summers? Do I look that stupid? OK, that may be your only valid point.*****Believe it or not, I'm actually an undecided in this race and I can't remember ever being undecided about an important office this close to an election. Part of me wants to vote for Dill because her progressive positions align best with mine. She's still pretty green (in both senses) and has fumbled and bumbled along at times. Still, she's young and may prove to be an up-and-comer for the future, so I don't want to see her squashed too badly.OTOH, if my vibes are telling me there's any realistic chance Summers could win, it is conceivable that I might hold my nose and vote for Angus. (You know, control of the Senate and all.) Moreover, Summers is the real deal if you want another moron-ideologue voting Yea or Nay depending on which eye Mitch McConnell winks.Keep in mind that it still smarts to think about how our current governor (Paul "LePig" LePage) slipped in with 38% of the vote in a three-way race. Worst. Governor. Evah.

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#71

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

Keep in mind that it still smarts to think about how our current governor (Paul "LePig" LePage) slipped in with 38% of the vote in a three-way race. Worst. Governor. Evah.Hold that thought!

MaineSkeptic
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#72

Post by MaineSkeptic »

Keep in mind that it still smarts to think about how our current governor (Paul "LePig" LePage) slipped in with 38% of the vote in a three-way race. Worst. Governor. Evah.Exactly my thinking. One of our members PMd me about the race yesterday, and my response included this:I don't know if you're aware of it, but many Mainers sport bumper stickers identifying themselves as part of the "61%,"" understood to mean those who didn't vote for LePage. I think many still feel burned by that experience and are coalescing around King.http://whitenoiseinsanity.com/wp-conten ... 99x205.jpg

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SueDB
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#73

Post by SueDB »

Mainers have always been independent style of folks. You might just have to just hold your nose and vote for Angus.
“If You're Not In The Obit, Eat Breakfast”

Remember, Orly NEVAH disappoints!

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Piffle
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#74

Post by Piffle »

I don't know if you're aware of it, but many Mainers sport bumper stickers identifying themselves as part of the "61%,"" understood to mean those who didn't vote for LePage. I think many still feel burned by that experience and are coalescing around King. :-bd Yup. I have 61% bumper stickers on my cars!

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#75

Post by Joseph Robidoux III »

CNN calls Angus King the winner.

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